UFC 191: Johnson vs. Dodson 2 - Page 3

Threw a couple units on Mir rd 1 prop at +350. It's a 22 percent implied rate.

I have a lot on AA and wanted to hedge in the best way possible because a lot of people I respect aren't so sure.

I'm also getting more and more paranoid that AA is going to be coming into this fight softer. I didn't like how in his countdown they didn't show his body once. (I know Mir will be coming in fat but that doesn't really hurt him because his cardio has always kinda blown)

I think if Mir is going to win 40 % or more of the time and I made a poor bet, I think that about half of that or more is a typical rd 1 HW KO or submission. Under that assumption, Mir would be winning in rd 1 around 1/3 of the time. I personally don't see the fight that way but, atleast if I'm wrong, there's a large possibility that's how I WOULD be wrong..... and therefore would re-gain some value in the hedge.

On a tangent, AJ looked very good in the countdown so I'm not expecting to be able to lay anything on Manuwa in the event of a soft weigh-in for Johnson. Looking like no bet on that one.

Also threw a prop on DJ by Sub at +450 even though I also have him by decision at -135. I think in my vision of how this fight is gonna go, Dodson is primed to get subbed in the later rounds, but still most likely loses a decision because hes so tough and squirly.

I think that a KO is almost impossible for DJ. Yes, I know, he KO Benevidez. The Benevidez shot was just the insane perfect combination of Benevidez being WAY too aggressive and wreckless, and him throwing his most powerful shot into the incoming chin. He also hasn't KO'd other top opponents every other time. Dodson fights far less aggressively. He just moves in quick circles and just looks to counter or walk his opponent into his big left, pretty damn predictable against a guy as intelligent as DJ but not the style that is going to be susceptible to the KO. If DJ hurts Dodson, it's likely later be later in the fight via damage accumulation and fatigue, hes much more likely to slap on a RNC or some kind of sick submission than he is to put in the coffin nails with fight ending shots.

If Dodson hasn't improved more than he's shown (which actually seems to be a minor regression), the sub is probably pretty likely.

However, if Dodson has improved or just had bad out-lier performances recently and makes some of the rounds close, he'll still lose a decision far more than half the time, so that prop still holds value in my eyes at -135.

I'll take Dodson. At these odds, someone with his athleticism and power, its a gift.

The one underdog I'm afraid to take is Manuwa, I think hes just behind in every way.

On September 01 2015 06:03 Minsk wrote: I'll take Dodson. At these odds, someone with his athleticism and power, its a gift. The one underdog I'm afraid to take is Manuwa, I think hes just behind in every way.

Fully agree with you on Dodson

About Manuwa....

I think in sports in general, including the ufc, you have 2 kind of guys. "Solid" guys, and "Streaky" guys.
A solid guy is someone like Jose Also, or Jon Jones, who always offers a very good performance.
And then, you have Streaky guys. They sometimes do really well, and sometimes do shitty. As an example, Alistair Overeem, or Tyron Woodley.

I think Anthony Johnson might be one of those Streaky guys. At his best, he might even be able to beat Jon Jones. But i think at his worst, he might lose to Manuwa. I could be wrong tho, but if i can get Manuwa at +500, ill prolly throw a small bet on him.

I also think Johnson is the kind of guy that, if you make a mistake, he will punish you HARD. But if Manuwa can get a bit lucky and outplay Johnson, he has a shot.

On September 02 2015 01:29 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On September 01 2015 06:03 Minsk wrote: I'll take Dodson. At these odds, someone with his athleticism and power, its a gift. The one underdog I'm afraid to take is Manuwa, I think hes just behind in every way. Fully agree with you on Dodson About Manuwa.... I think in sports in general, including the ufc, you have 2 kind of guys. "Solid" guys, and "Streaky" guys. A solid guy is someone like Jose Also, or Jon Jones, who always offers a very good performance. And then, you have Streaky guys. They sometimes do really well, and sometimes do shitty. As an example, Alistair Overeem, or Tyron Woodley. I think Anthony Johnson might be one of those Streaky guys. At his best, he might even be able to beat Jon Jones. But i think at his worst, he might lose to Manuwa. I could be wrong tho, but if i can get Manuwa at +500, ill prolly throw a small bet on him. I also think Johnson is the kind of guy that, if you make a mistake, he will punish you HARD. But if Manuwa can get a bit lucky and outplay Johnson, he has a shot.

Good logic as far as the Manuwa fight, I agree with the points you make.

I disagree on Dodson, to each their own but I just want to expound on how I see it.

Dodson is a very good fighter with some A+ aspects to his game, but I enjoy betting on the best fighters in the sport in their primes... I think DJ is tiers above everyone in his division, which is rare these days, and just because Dodson rocked him and won 1 round, maybe 2 in the first fight, I think everything is working against him in the rematch.

In my opinion, one of 3 things must occur/be true for him to win

A: He becomes the best version of himself by leaps and bounds and/or DJ needs to come in a worse version of himself by leaps and bounds - and Dodson is actually close to the equal fighter that night

B: If A is untrue, than he will need to land multiple very low percentage fight changing shots in 2-3 of the rounds

C: If A and B are untrue, than DJ would need to make a large mistake at the perfect time for Dodson and get flatlined by 1 shot/follow-up

I see the sum of those three scenarios being less than 10 percent, and feel like the sample sizes of their fights is so large that we can be fairly certain about it, so I'd handicap him as a +900 dog.

Under that pretense DJ is a low risk bet with a +ev of .08 unit per unit bet. Sign me up .

On September 02 2015 02:20 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On September 02 2015 01:29 Floofy wrote:   On September 01 2015 06:03 Minsk wrote: I'll take Dodson. At these odds, someone with his athleticism and power, its a gift. The one underdog I'm afraid to take is Manuwa, I think hes just behind in every way. Fully agree with you on Dodson About Manuwa.... I think in sports in general, including the ufc, you have 2 kind of guys. "Solid" guys, and "Streaky" guys. A solid guy is someone like Jose Also, or Jon Jones, who always offers a very good performance. And then, you have Streaky guys. They sometimes do really well, and sometimes do shitty. As an example, Alistair Overeem, or Tyron Woodley. I think Anthony Johnson might be one of those Streaky guys. At his best, he might even be able to beat Jon Jones. But i think at his worst, he might lose to Manuwa. I could be wrong tho, but if i can get Manuwa at +500, ill prolly throw a small bet on him. I also think Johnson is the kind of guy that, if you make a mistake, he will punish you HARD. But if Manuwa can get a bit lucky and outplay Johnson, he has a shot. Good logic as far as the Manuwa fight, I agree with the points you make. I disagree on Dodson, to each their own but I just want to expound on how I see it. Dodson is a very good fighter with some A+ aspects to his game, but I enjoy betting on the best fighters in the sport in their primes... I think DJ is tiers above everyone in his division, which is rare these days, and just because Dodson rocked him and won 1 round, maybe 2 in the first fight, I think everything is working against him in the rematch. In my opinion, one of 3 things must occur/be true for him to win A: He becomes the best version of himself by leaps and bounds and/or DJ needs to come in a worse version of himself by leaps and bounds - and Dodson is actually close to the equal fighter that night B: If A is untrue, than he will need to land multiple very low percentage fight changing shots in 2-3 of the rounds C: If A and B are untrue, than DJ would need to make a large mistake at the perfect time for Dodson and get flatlined by 1 shot/follow-up I see the sum of those three scenarios being less than 10 percent, and feel like the sample sizes of their fights is so large that we can be fairly certain about it, so I'd handicap him as a +900 dog. Under that pretense DJ is a low risk bet with a +ev of .08 unit per unit bet. Sign me up .

Yea you might be right man

When i talked about the whole Solid/Streaky thing, the thing is, i think both DJ and Dodson are the solid type, which means the upset is less likely.

I'm still very tempted to bet dodson, because this thing will probably last 5 rounds, and Dodson has serious KO power and very high skills, so i think all it takes is for DJ to make a mistake. Obviously, that probably won't happen, but hey i'm a fish xD

Well, all that said I just bet Dodson via Split/Majority Decision +1725 $50.00 to win 872.50.

If I lose on this big, I don't want it to be because of a robbery due to a few big hits by Dodson where DJ was controlling the whole fight. If 2 judges decide that shit is more important, a split decision is a def possibility.

I think Rumble is gonna take Manuwa down and pound the shit out of his face. Manuwa is gonna have flashbacks of Rumble vs. Gustafsson once it hits the mat.

Regarding streaky fighters, Manuwa is the epitome of a streaky fighter*. His record speaks for itself:

- Kyle Kingsbury (His eye got swollen shut so the doctor stopped it in-between rounds. He is retired from MMA. Kingsbury was never a top 10 fighter.)
- Cyrille Diabate (He got a leg injury and he quit on the stool after round 1 ended. He is retired from MMA. Diabate was never a top 10 fighter.)
- Ryan Jimmo (He got a leg injury at the beginning of round 2. He's 3-4 in the UFC and is on a 2-fight losing streak. Jimmo isn't a top 10 fighter.)
- Alexander Gustafsson (He took Manuwa down and controlled him easily once they were on the mat. Gustafsson is a top 3 fighter.)
- Jan B?achowicz (He threw a bunch of strikes that either missed, or did no damage at all, and he backed up the entire fight. Manuwa didn't look good either, but he clearly won this shit-fest of a fight. Blachowicz isn't a top 10 fighter.)

And, if you believe in age playing a factor, Manuwa is 35, while Rumble is 31.

I can def see Rumble taking down Manuwa and pounding on him due to them bringing in Neil Malancon, but I don't think its a very likely outcome unless AJ gets hurt with something and decides to shoot...

I've seen Jimmy stuff a lot of deep shots against strong guys like Blachowitz, but Gus used that same kind of 'turn the corner' center-of-the-cage takedown he used against Jones to get Manuwa down. It was really slick. Once he had Manuwa down, he actually had trouble getting any real damage off - the more effective part was tiring Manuwa out who had to use a lot his energy to keep the Mauler from Mauling, but Jimi had a very serviceable guard and had a nice get-up...

I don't see AJ as half the top position GnPer that Gus is so that wouldn't be my primary concern if I was Jimmy, especially because if AJ shoots and works for it and fails, that's a lot of energy wasted.... and the best I can think of to beat AJ is to get him tired. He's just too good otherwise.

AJ has all the tangible advantages but is just too much of a headcase and the matchup of two heavy-weight quality hitters with great technique squaring off is too random in it of itself for me to lay close to -600 on AJ.

I can't lay a bet on this fight unless I see something at weigh-ins AND Manuwa gets above +500

Other than that there are just so many FAR better spots than this in MMA betting, I'll pass

Pretty proud of this bet, wish I hadn't thrown so much money down on this card already or I would have gone bigger on it.

I took 'Blachowitz > Anderson (Scorecards = No Action)' @ -227 and the over 2.5 rounds @ -150, the ladder for a little bit less.

I feel like this is a very good strategy for this particular fight because I see it going the distance most of the time and am getting good value on the over, but in the event that there is a finish, I am almost positive it will be Blachowitz doing to the finishing.

Blach finish under 2.5 rounds = break even
Blach finish over 2.5 rounds = big profit
Anderson finish under 2.5 rounds = lose
Anderson finish over 2.5 rounds = break even
No finish = profit

The only way I lose is if Anderson gets a finish in under 2.5 rds, in which case I would lose big, but that would boggle my mind.

soberstone you have this bad habit of using than instead of then, maybe it gets autocorrected to wrong i dont know

On September 02 2015 19:08 MysticJoey wrote: soberstone you have this bad habit of using than instead of then, maybe it gets autocorrected to wrong i dont know

Damn son, such a random post in an MMA thread.

On September 02 2015 03:43 PuertoRican wrote: I think Rumble is gonna take Manuwa down and pound the shit out of his face. Manuwa is gonna have flashbacks of Rumble vs. Gustafsson once it hits the mat. Regarding streaky fighters, Manuwa is the epitome of a streaky fighter*. His record speaks for itself: - Kyle Kingsbury (His eye got swollen shut so the doctor stopped it in-between rounds. He is retired from MMA. Kingsbury was never a top 10 fighter.) - Cyrille Diabate (He got a leg injury and he quit on the stool after round 1 ended. He is retired from MMA. Diabate was never a top 10 fighter.) - Ryan Jimmo (He got a leg injury at the beginning of round 2. He's 3-4 in the UFC and is on a 2-fight losing streak. Jimmo isn't a top 10 fighter.) - Alexander Gustafsson (He took Manuwa down and controlled him easily once they were on the mat. Gustafsson is a top 3 fighter.) - Jan B?achowicz (He threw a bunch of strikes that either missed, or did no damage at all, and he backed up the entire fight. Manuwa didn't look good either, but he clearly won this shit-fest of a fight. Blachowicz isn't a top 10 fighter.) And, if you believe in age playing a factor, Manuwa is 35, while Rumble is 31.

Exactly, Manuwa is very streaky, which is good when he is a big underdog. Streaky fighters can sometimes do really well (and sometimes really bad).

Age is important, but the heavier they are, the less it plays a role, imo. 35 at light heavyweight isn't a big deal... the champ is 36.

I can't tell if I'm wrong and Manuwa is the live dog based off that logic, or if I'm right and Dodson is the live dog based off my logic.

I use the Edgar vs Faber fight for reference, which really showed me how hard it is to win without a specific edge for reference, but AJ vs Manuwa is different weight class and less grinder-like mechanics. I think that Manuwa does best against fish he can kick in the stomach or something, and AJ can be considered fishy/streaky in some ways, but also seems better at every aspect.

I think that one of these underdogs is a mirage. I think one of them is going to win, I just don't know which one, and I don't think that both will win. I could bet on both, that might be profitable, I would prefer to think deeper and pick one with confidence.

I'm still leaning towards Dodson, because I can clearly see him winning if he is a little more conservative. Or if he does serious damage, I can see him winning through that way too. Those are both viable win paths. I think DJ is really good at adapting, but its hard to really be that good at adapting. Cardio + Adapting are his only edges really, yeah I'm taking Dodson. I'm not sure that Cardio + Adapting > Athleticism + Power at their respective levels, especially not sure that the favor is 80%+. Prove me wrong.

It wasn't like their first match was a one sided battle, I don't think that DJ is that dominating of a matchup for Dodson. I can see fans hype and past records skewing odds towards DJ, away from truth. I very much like these odds. I like that split decision bet too.

On September 04 2015 00:03 Minsk wrote: I can't tell if I'm wrong and Manuwa is the live dog based off that logic, or if I'm right and Dodson is the live dog based off my logic. I use the Edgar vs Faber fight for reference, which really showed me how hard it is to win without a specific edge for reference, but AJ vs Manuwa is different weight class and less grinder-like mechanics. I think that Manuwa does best against fish he can kick in the stomach or something, and AJ can be considered fishy/streaky in some ways, but also seems better at every aspect. I think that one of these underdogs is a mirage. I think one of them is going to win, I just don't know which one, and I don't think that both will win. I could bet on both, that might be profitable, I would prefer to think deeper and pick one with confidence.

I'm gonna bet both of them.

I think Dodson vs DJ is a fight similar to something like Aldo vs Mendes. Both guys are super skilled. DJ is clearly more skilled, but i think Dodson easily can win this at least 20%. I almost guarentee people betting DJ will at least sweat a lot at some point in the fight, Dodson is no joke.

Manuwa vs AJ.... those guys have such KO power its almost like an HW fight imo. in an HW fight, i'm almost always gonna be the +500 dude unless he is clearly very outmatched, which i don't think is the case here.

If I was gonna bet on Manuwa, I'd bet his KO/TKO line, which is currently +725. If Manuwa wins, it won't be by a decision.

Regarding Rumble, if you don't count his welterweight fights (which no one does anymore, as it's retarded to do so at this point), why would you describe him as a "streaky" fighter? His modern day record LHW and HW suggests the opposite of streaky. Or, do you mean he's streaky in a different way?

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