UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia

Date: Saturday, August 1st
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (PPV)

Ronda Rousey (11-0) vs. Bethe Correia (9-0) (Women's Bantamweight Championship)
Mauricio Rua (22-10) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-6) (Light Heavyweight)
Glaico Franca (12-3) vs. Fernando Bruno (15-2) (TUF Brazil 4 Lightweight Final)
Dileno Lopes (18-1) vs. Reginaldo Vieira (12-3) (TUF Brazil 4 Bantamweight Final)
Stefan Struve (25-7) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-9-1) (Heavyweight)
Antonio Silva (18-7-1) vs. Soa Palelei (22-4) (Heavyweight)
Claudia Gadelha (12-1) vs. Jessica Aguilar (19-4) (Women's Strawweight Championship title eliminator)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Demian Maia (20-6) vs. Neil Magny (15-3) (Welterweight)
Rafael Cavalcante (12-5) vs. Patrick Cummins (7-2) (Light Heavyweight)
Warlley Alves (8-0) vs. Nordine Taleb (11-2) (Welterweight)
Iuri Alcantara (31-6) vs. Leandro Issa (13-4) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Vitor Miranda (10-4) vs. Clint Hester (11-4) (Middleweight)
Hugo Viana (8-2) vs. Guido Cannetti (6-2) (Bantamweight)

Other

- The lightweight and bantamweight finals of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4 are also expected to take place at this event. The finale was initially planned to take place on June 27, 2015 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. However on May 15, the event was moved to the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Florida. It was expected to be the first time a Ultimate Fighter Brazil Finale would take place outside of Brazil. However, as the event approached, several international fighters experienced potential travel restrictions due to technical issues within the Bureau of Consular Affairs division of the U.S. State Department which produces visas. This issue could prevent several participants from being able to compete. Subsequently, the divisional finals of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4 were shifted to this event.
- The event is also expected to feature a UFC Women's Strawweight Championship title eliminator bout between Claudia Gadelha and former WSOF Women's Strawweight champion Jessica Aguilar.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Rousey > Correia
• Rua > Nogueira
• Franca vs. Bruno (dunno)
• Lopes vs. Vieira (dunno)
• Struve > Nogueira
• Palelei > Silva
• Aguilar > Gadelha
• Magny > Maia
• Cavalcante > Cummins
• Alves > Taleb
• Alcantara > Issa
• Miranda > Hester
• Viana > Cannetti

Tate vs Rousey 3 should be interesting possibly as Tate improves

On July 26 2015 22:56 PuertoRican wrote: First impression of the match-ups: • Aguilar > Gadelha

:O can you explain this

On July 26 2015 23:50 alejandicto wrote: Show nested quote + On July 26 2015 22:56 PuertoRican wrote: First impression of the match-ups: • Aguilar > Gadelha :O can you explain this

First, tell me why you think Gadelha will win, then I will tell you why I think Aguilar will win.

oh no, its struve, i always get nervous when he fights ;(

i hope aguilar vs gadelha and magny vs maia will be good

^ yea i wish struve wasn't fighting anymore.
i'd like to say the same about nogueira but tbh i dont care, in the last few years i lost the respect i had for him

On July 27 2015 00:45 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 26 2015 23:50 alejandicto wrote:   On July 26 2015 22:56 PuertoRican wrote: First impression of the match-ups: • Aguilar > Gadelha :O can you explain this First, tell me why you think Gadelha will win, then I will tell you why I think Aguilar will win.

Well I dont know too much about strawweight division, I only know that Aguilar was the WSOF champion and Gadelha is really good that she can be champion, in almost every forums people said that Gadelha is going to destroy Aguilar so I wasnt interest, but I am interested on your thinking because I like betting on underdogs.

Have a $475 bet on Struve at -190, very confident this is a bet. Nogueira just isn't very good anymore.

Still thinking about bets on Bigfoot +155 and Cummins -185. Anyone have thoughts about this? I'm aware Bigfoot has not looked great and susceptible to the KO, but the man has wins over Overeem, Browne, Fedor, Arlovski has he really gotten to the point where +155 is justified vs Soa Palelei (who is 38yo)?

This card is full of fighters who should be retired.

I have Gadelha at -205, very happy for this odds. Too bad they let me bet just 150 before changing them up.

Personally I wouldn't touch the Struve - Nogueira fight. While Big Nog is absolutely terrible at the moment, Struve has fought 2 times in the last 3 years and both fights are losses. He almost retired due to heart condition. Not very confident in betting him at this odds.

I might bet Bigfoot as well. Soa Palelei is just very bad.

On July 27 2015 11:50 Nazgul wrote: Have a $475 bet on Struve at -190, very confident this is a bet. Nogueira just isn't very good anymore. Still thinking about bets on Bigfoot +155 and Cummins -185. Anyone have thoughts about this? I'm aware Bigfoot has not looked great and susceptible to the KO, but the man has wins over Overeem, Browne, Fedor, Arlovski has he really gotten to the point where +155 is justified vs Soa Palelei (who is 38yo)?

Bigfoot post TRT seems to be as hurt as any fighter ever.... Frank Mir and Arlovski both KO'd him by tapping his chin and he looks even slower than before.... not sure Palelei will have improved his striking enough to even get inside on him though, which is pathetic. We'll see on that one, kinda flip flopping, I'm personally wishing I had passed.... (I have Palelei in a couple small parlays)... mainly because I think if I were Bigfoot, fighting in Brazil, I'd probably get back on something and there's no question that a 2012 Bigfoot would mutilate Palelei

I personally think Cummins is going to steamroll Cavalcante, I'm with you. OSP is much better than Cavalante at this point in their careers and he still needed to pull off a pretty nice KO to avoid getting decisioned by Cummins grappling-chops. Same thing could happen again but I doubt it.

On July 27 2015 11:50 Nazgul wrote: Have a $475 bet on Struve at -190, very confident this is a bet. Nogueira just isn't very good anymore. Still thinking about bets on Bigfoot +155 and Cummins -185. Anyone have thoughts about this? I'm aware Bigfoot has not looked great and susceptible to the KO, but the man has wins over Overeem, Browne, Fedor, Arlovski has he really gotten to the point where +155 is justified vs Soa Palelei (who is 38yo)?

I already mentioned the TRT issue to you on Skype.

Regarding the age issue, you already know it doesn't come into play that much in the heavyweight division. Most of the top 15 UFC heavyweights are above 32 years old. What other weight class can say the same? In fact, the youngest fighter in the top 15 is also the lowest ranked fighter in the top 15.


Champion: Fabricio Werdum (37 years old - ever evolving fighter who won the title at 37 years old)
1. Cain Velasquez (32 years old)
2. Junior Dos Santos (31 years old)
3. Stipe Miocic (32 years old)
4. Andrei Arlovski (36 years old - evolving fighter who fights more strategically so he takes less damage these days)
5. Travis Browne (33 years old)
6. Josh Barnett (37 years old)
7. Ben Rothwell (33 years old)
8. Mark Hunt (41 years old - you already know about his resurgence)
9. Alistair Overeem (35 years old)
10. Frank Mir (36 years old - his next fight will tell us a lot more, as he had 2 favorable match-ups in a row)
11. Roy Nelson (39 years old)
12. Antonio Silva (35 years old)
13. Matt Mitrione (37 years old)
14. Alexey Oliynyk (38 years old - skilled grappler who is still somewhat unknown in the UFC)
15. Stefan Struve (27 years old)

Maker lines just opened.

Magney has been all over the place but I think I’m gonna jump on him at +130 for a couple units and double it if it moves to +150.

Current odds I like:

Magney – +130 (I actually favor him in this fight, particular due to his length, activity, cardio, and Maia seemingly on a slow but steady decline)

Cummins – -157 (May hedge with a Cavalcante rd 1 stoppage like what happened vs OSP but I consider OSP > Cavalcante at this point in their respective careers and there is no way Cavalcante isn’t gassed by the 2nd with the pace Cummins sets)

Alves – -225 (His opponent isn’t nearly as dangerous as Jouban was…. Alves cardio is a concern but he should be able to do whatever he wants and set the pace)

Lil Nog – +170 (I favor Shogun but they are both so declined and bad at this point that I’d handicap Lil Nog at about +120)

Already placed a big Parlay on Gadhelda when she opened (think the line is where it should be now) and Rousey sub at -180.

Looking to prop, if the lines are juicy enough:
Palelei rd 1 stoppage
Magney rd 3 stoppage
Cummins rd 3 stoppage or decision, depending what I feel is more accurate
Cavalcante rd 1 stoppage as a hedge
Big Nog decision

STRAIGHT WAGER RISKING TO WIN
219572618
MU NEIL MAGNY (NEIL MAGNY vrs DEMIAN MAIA) +130 $60.00 $78.00
219572619
MU PATRICK CUMMINS (RAFAEL CAVALCANTE vrs PATRICK CUMMINS) -160 $96.00 $60.00
219572620
MU WARLLEY ALVES (NORDINE TALEB vrs WARLLEY ALVES) -210 $126.00 $60.00

On July 27 2015 13:28 northsails wrote: This card is full of fighters who should be retired. I have Gadelha at -205, very happy for this odds. Too bad they let me bet just 150 before changing them up. Personally I wouldn't touch the Struve - Nogueira fight. While Big Nog is absolutely terrible at the moment, Struve has fought 2 times in the last 3 years and both fights are losses. He almost retired due to heart condition. Not very confident in betting him at this odds. I might bet Bigfoot as well. Soa Palelei is just very bad.

Gadelha was a steal when she opened, I got that too. The current odds are more accurate but there's probably still value on her. JAG could win a decision if she fights the perfect fight and Gadelha has a bad night but that's about it IMO.

On July 27 2015 23:37 soberstone wrote: Maker lines just opened. Magny has been all over the place but I think I’m gonna jump on him at +130 for a couple units and double it if it moves to +150. Current odds I like: Magny – +130 (I actually favor him in this fight, particular due to his length, activity, cardio, and Maia seemingly on a slow but steady decline) Alves – -225 (His opponent isn’t nearly as dangerous as Jouban was…. Alves cardio is a concern but he should be able to do whatever he wants and set the pace) Already placed a big Parlay on Gadhelda when she opened (think the line is where it should be now) and Rousey sub at -180.

Regarding Magny/Maia, I slightly favor Magny, too, but saying Maia is "seemingly on a slow but steady decline" is unfair. Maia has cardio issues, but they aren't consistent cardio issues, so it's hard to cap his fights sometimes cuz he doesn't always gas out like he's expected to. Also, since January 2012, Maia is 5-3 in the UFC, losing to Chris Weidman by decision (3 rounds), Jake Shields by split-decision (5 rounds), and Rory MacDonald by decision (3 rounds). Maia is currently on a 2-fight winning streak, his last fight being a 5-round decision win.

Regarding Alves, Taleb isn't as dangerous on the feet as Jouban, but Taleb and Jouban are nothing alike in MMA, so it would be foolish to compare the two.

On July 27 2015 23:47 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 27 2015 13:28 northsails wrote: This card is full of fighters who should be retired. I have Gadelha at -205, very happy for this odds. Too bad they let me bet just 150 before changing them up. Personally I wouldn't touch the Struve - Nogueira fight. While Big Nog is absolutely terrible at the moment, Struve has fought 2 times in the last 3 years and both fights are losses. He almost retired due to heart condition. Not very confident in betting him at this odds. I might bet Bigfoot as well. Soa Palelei is just very bad. Gadelha was a steal when she opened, I got that too. The current odds are more accurate but there's probably still value on her. JAG could win a decision if she fights the perfect fight and Gadelha has a bad night but that's about it IMO.

You're either overrating Claudia, or underrating Jessica with this statement.

Considering Claudia won't finish Jessica, you're pretty high on the Brazilian.

bigfoots chin is done and he is the slowest human being on earth so i'd favor anyone over 205 pounds against him. all they need to do is touch his chin quicker than he reacts

Gadelha all the way to -515....

On July 28 2015 03:40 soberstone wrote: Gadelha all the way to -515....

Yep... Kinda funny, imo. Just took Jessica at +340 for 1u.

I don't have any problem with people betting on either woman, but it's a clear sign of disrespect (and a sign of being uneducated about both fighters) from the bookies and bettors to have Claudia as such a large favorite. I assume a lot of people have her in parlays.

Win or lose, people will see that Claudia shouldn't be a 5-1 favorite over a woman whom many still see as the #1 or #2 strawweight female fighter.

----------

On a side note, DraftKings has their largest ever event going on right now for UFC 190. You pay $3 to enter in the $100k prize pool event, with a $10k 1st place prize. I believe the $70k event had a $21k first place price, but that meant there was a lot less people getting in the money. In the $100k event, the top 7850 people get paid.

Damn, Bethe is one ugly ass bitch.

Just added a bet for Ronda in Round 1 at -230. I can't believe this odds, this is the biggest mismatch title fight in the history of this sport. Correia is drawing dead even if they allow her to fight with a bat.

On July 28 2015 12:15 northsails wrote: Damn, Bethe is one ugly ass bitch. Just added a bet for Ronda in Round 1 at -230. I can't believe this odds, this is the biggest mismatch title fight in the history of this sport. Correia is drawing dead even if they allow her to fight with a bat.

that's how they often build a legacy and a fan base of casuals

I just watch some fights of Jessica Aguilar and I think the odds are a little exagerated but I am not touching that bet. I am only going to bet Ronda by submission and Bigfoot for that odds.

On July 28 2015 12:15 northsails wrote: Damn, Bethe is one ugly ass bitch. Just added a bet for Ronda in Round 1 at -230. I can't believe this odds, this is the biggest mismatch title fight in the history of this sport. Correia is drawing dead even if they allow her to fight with a bat.

Is that really because Ronda is claiming she wants to drag it out?

Ronda said she wants to punish her for talking shit about her dead father, whether it was unintentional or not.

You don't insta-arm bar your opponent to punish them in their own country, you beat the shit out of their face with your superior speed, power, and boxing. Correia has a face like JDS that will look deformed really quick after taking several clean punches.

If done correctly, this can be Ronda's highlight fight of her career that makes her look like a bigger beast in the octagon than she already is.

She might hurt her too much too fast :D
Plus why give her the privilege of longer fight, it would mean she was her best opponent

On July 28 2015 01:55 Raidern wrote: bigfoots chin is done and he is the slowest human being on earth so i'd favor anyone over 205 pounds against him. all they need to do is touch his chin quicker than he reacts

Be carefull calling someone "done" too soon.
I thought Henderson was done, yet he crushed Boetch.

That being said, his opponement is an huge heavyweight who had a big win streak, who knows what will happen. I will study his opponement better before deciding, but im leaning Bigfoot at those odds.

Great article as always by jack slack
http://fightland.vice.com/blog/killing-the-queen-ronda-rousey

On July 28 2015 21:03 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On July 28 2015 01:55 Raidern wrote: bigfoots chin is done and he is the slowest human being on earth so i'd favor anyone over 205 pounds against him. all they need to do is touch his chin quicker than he reacts Be carefull calling someone "done" too soon. I thought Henderson was done, yet he crushed Boetch. That being said, his opponement is an huge heavyweight who had a big win streak, who knows what will happen. I will study his opponement better before deciding, but im leaning Bigfoot at those odds.

Well Henderson is done, a win over Boetsch means nothing. Boetsch managed to do the only thing he had to avoid and walked straight in to the Hbomb.

And bigfoot is also done without a doubt, while on TRT he stood 5 rounds with Hunt who is probably the hardest hitter in HW but has since been KOed twice by shots that were far less powerful. Mir barely touched him and he went out

On July 28 2015 20:18 Nazgul wrote: Show nested quote + On July 28 2015 12:15 northsails wrote: Damn, Bethe is one ugly ass bitch. Just added a bet for Ronda in Round 1 at -230. I can't believe this odds, this is the biggest mismatch title fight in the history of this sport. Correia is drawing dead even if they allow her to fight with a bat. Is that really because Ronda is claiming she wants to drag it out?

I don't put too much stock in this claim. I think it is just a way to hype a fight, that no one is caring about. Even if this is the case and she drags it out (unlikely imo), Bethe is so bad I just can't see her lasting more than 5 minutes with her.

As for Bigfoot discussion. He might be done fighting at the top level, but Soa Palelei has never been at that level. If you look Bigfoot last 10 fights, He has faced all the top heavyweights in the game and has victories over some of them, while Palelei has always been terrible and on top of that is older than him. Clear dog or pass for me.

"UFC sends document to fighters warning about crime and 'areas to avoid' in Rio."

On July 28 2015 21:03 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On July 28 2015 01:55 Raidern wrote: bigfoots chin is done and he is the slowest human being on earth so i'd favor anyone over 205 pounds against him. all they need to do is touch his chin quicker than he reacts Be carefull calling someone "done" too soon. I thought Henderson was done, yet he crushed Boetch. That being said, his opponement is an huge heavyweight who had a big win streak, who knows what will happen. I will study his opponement better before deciding, but im leaning Bigfoot at those odds.

Bigfoots pre-existing health conditions, paired with getting off steroids, paired with the war with Mark Hunt and beatings from Valasquez and nothing exceptional to fall back on as a likely path to victory (unlike Henderson's h-bomb) make him a lot more done in my mind than I ever felt about Henderson (I bet him fairly big vs Boetsch).

I know older heavyweights have been on a run lately and odds should remain fairly close on all non-top 5 guy fights due to the random factor, but I really think both Big Nog and Big Foot are exceptionally done.

I could certainly be wrong and he could have a mini-resurgence and look a lot better, but I don't find it likely.

All that said, I'm still hesitate to do anywith Palelei or Struve besides put them in low risk high reward parlays and maybe a rd 1 ko prop for Palelei because the odds feel about right, if not slightly too close.

Thats a little extreme isnt it ?

They aren't demands, they are suggestions. I see no problem. Sounds like Brazil can be a dangerous place for a non-worldy person in certain poverty-stricken areas and they are just trying to help fighters (and ofcourse themselves by proxy), who are notoriously dumb at times.

Nothing wrong with smart business as long as it is mutually beneficial to the fighters.

Example: Not the Reebok deal apparently

lol the areas they recommend to avoid are so nice and theyre really safe unless u try to get mugged on purpose or sth

319810727-1 7/28/15 9:32pm $8.46 $178.22 Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 8/1/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1411 Struve wins by 3 round decision +485* vs Not Struve by 3 round decision
Pending 8/1/15 10:30pm Props Fighting 1504 Fight won't go 3 round distance -530* vs Palelei / Silva goes 3 round distance
Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm Props Fighting 1606 Not Aguilar inside distance -1035* vs Aguilar wins inside distance
Pending 8/1/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1811 Cummins wins by 3 round decision +150* vs Not Cummins by 3 round decision
Pending 8/1/15 8:30pm Props Fighting 1906 Not Taleb inside distance -635* vs Taleb wins inside distance

On July 29 2015 01:14 MiPwnYa wrote: lol the areas they recommend to avoid are so nice and theyre really safe unless u try to get mugged on purpose or sth

Than it's stupid. lol.

Or they do it for every trip outside the US and this is just the one that leaked.

that document has to be a joke, huge wtf

On July 29 2015 02:06 Raidern wrote: that document has to be a joke, huge wtf

I got it from BloodyElbow.com: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/7/28/...ing-areas-to-avoid-crime-rio-ufc-news

BloodyElbow got it from Combate.com: http://sportv.globo.com/site/combate/...las-e-assaltos-no-rio-de-janeiro.html

Why would the document be a joke? It's really general and seems frivolous. But considering a lot of fighters are barely early to mid twenties in age and not yet well traveled....doesn't seem like the worst idea to cover bases.

I'm of the opinion that the Ronda purposely wanting to go rounds thing is 100% part of the sell job. Ronda's very aware of selling a fight for PPVs consideration without overtly being a fake.

On July 29 2015 02:57 iakim322 wrote: Why would the document be a joke? It's really general and seems frivolous. But considering a lot of fighters are barely early to mid twenties in age and not yet well traveled....doesn't seem like the worst idea to cover bases. I'm of the opinion that the Ronda purposely wanting to go rounds thing is 100% part of the sell job. Ronda's very aware of selling a fight for PPVs consideration without overtly being a fake.

I feel the exact same way on both accords.

Equation:

(Rousey >>>>>>>>>>Correira) + (Good >>>>>>>>>>> Rousey's striking defense) = Trainwreck for Correira

Rousey probably already has the promos played out (half joking):

A) KO - I wanted to punish her for those mean things she said, it's personal when you talk about my family. subtext: I'm the shit, untouchable, pay to watch the baddest bitch on the planet

B) Sub - We're in Brasil, I respect the art of Jiu Jitsu and wanted to display that for the great Brazilian fans. subtext: Thank you for the art, I'm clearly the master of it now at this weight and gender, pay to watch the baddest bitch on the planet

On July 29 2015 02:57 iakim322 wrote: Why would the document be a joke? It's really general and seems frivolous. But considering a lot of fighters are barely early to mid twenties in age and not yet well traveled....doesn't seem like the worst idea to cover bases.

because it's way over the top and it mentions stupidities such as "Never open your hotel room until you confirm who is on the other side", not picking anyone up because you can be a set up for a robbery and aids incidence among prostitutes. If people think such advice is normal then wow cant believe i survived thus far

I will take Noguiera over Steven Struve.
Steven Struve is an idiot, I learned about this in the Hunt fight. And Noguiera says his strategy will help him win.

On July 29 2015 22:06 Minsk wrote: I will take Noguiera over Steven Struve. Steven Struve is an idiot, I learned about this in the Hunt fight. And Noguiera says his strategy will help him win.

Walking corpse vs walking stilt

Who wins.

On July 29 2015 22:25 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 29 2015 22:06 Minsk wrote: I will take Noguiera over Steven Struve. Steven Struve is an idiot, I learned about this in the Hunt fight. And Noguiera says his strategy will help him win. Walking corpse vs walking stilt Who wins.

Naw Man, hes going to use teh strategy!!

ONLINE
07/29/2015
05:09 PM
[Ticket #: 219756268] PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
08/01/2015 @ 07:45 PM MU [24117] TOTAL o1.5 +125
(ANTONIO RODRIGO NOGUEIRA vrs STEFAN STRUVE)
08/01/2015 @ 07:20 PM MU [24122] TOTAL u1.5 -175
(ANTONIO SILVA vrs SOA PALELEI)
60.00 152.14
ONLINE
07/29/2015
05:12 PM

[Ticket #: 219756589] STRAIGHT BET
08/01/2015 @ 07:45 PM MU [24117] TOTAL o1.5 +125
(ANTONIO RODRIGO NOGUEIRA vrs STEFAN STRUVE)
60.00 75.00
ONLINE
07/29/2015
05:12 PM

[Ticket #: 219756590] STRAIGHT BET
08/01/2015 @ 07:20 PM MU [24122] TOTAL u1.5 -175
(ANTONIO SILVA vrs SOA PALELEI)
105.00 60.00


MUANTONIO RODRIGO NOGUEIRA v STEFAN STRUVE 1.5 +125
MUANTONIO SILVA v SOA PALELEI 1.5 -175
MU PATRICK CUMMINS (RAFAEL CAVALCANTE vrs PATRICK CUMMINS) -160
MU WARLLEY ALVES (NORDINE TALEB vrs WARLLEY ALVES) -220

Risking: $20 To Win: $147.14

Another Hail Mary:


MU RONDA ROUSEY (BETHE CORREIA vrs RONDA ROUSEY) -1550
MU STEFAN STRUVE (ANTONIO RODRIGO NOGUEIRA vrs STEFAN STRUVE) -172
MU SOA PALELEI (ANTONIO SILVA vrs SOA PALELEI) -190
MU CLAUDIA GADELHA (JESSICA AGUILAR vrs CLAUDIA GADELHA) -450
MU NEIL MAGNY (NEIL MAGNY vrs DEMIAN MAIA) +150
MU PATRICK CUMMINS (RAFAEL CAVALCANTE vrs PATRICK CUMMINS) -160
MU WARLLEY ALVES (NORDINE TALEB vrs WARLLEY ALVES) -220
MU IURI ALCANTARA (LEANDRO ISSA vrs IURI ALCANTARA) -250
MU CLINT HESTER (VITOR MIRANDA vrs CLINT HESTER) -160
MU HUGO VIANA (GUIDO CANNETTI vrs HUGO VIANA) -315

Risking: $10 To Win: $546.19

On July 29 2015 20:38 PuertoRican wrote:

Good one IMO.

Can't hate on Rousey's sentiments at the very end. Fuck gold-diggin whores +1.

bigfoot looked fat there. Like bad and fat. Would not be surprised at all to seem him go down in 30 seconds.

You know what, I'll take both Noguiera brothers. They're senior to Shogun in Brazil, and its not like Shogun is an aspiring anything that needs to conquer them.

Other than that, I think Bigfoot is done. Just took too much damage, I'm pretty sure Soa Paleli will win.

and the Damien Maia vs Neil Magny fight is really interesteresting to me, Maia keeps getting better and better, although I was really impressed with Magny until he lost the last fight. I wouldn't bet it, but my gut says Maia because he can stand at small disadvantage or grapple at large advantage.

I placed some early small bets on Lil Nog but I've totally changed my tune. I watched his fight with Rashad Evans again and it's probably the least impressive win I've ever seen.

Shogun should win.

Buying back my action on those.

On July 30 2015 20:40 Minsk wrote: Maia keeps getting better and better, although I was really impressed with Magny until he lost the last fight.

Makes zero sense. Not sure the rest made much more sense.

Bunch of the card's fights being basically 'how much of a worse version has' fighter A become as compared to how much worse Fighter B has become...all feels a bit too lottery'ish to me. Nogeuira, Nogueira #2, Shogun, Bigfoot, Soa, Struve. Out of those, I'd lean Struve the most except how he is after his condition is such a wild card and as Minsk said earlier, his fight IQ is so extremely low sometimes to the point that gambling on him is always dicey.

Think I'm going to go with Magny and Ronda R1 for this card.

On July 30 2015 22:17 iakim322 wrote: Bunch of the card's fights being basically 'how much of a worse version has' fighter A become as compared to how much worse Fighter B has become...all feels a bit too lottery'ish to me. Nogeuira, Nogueira #2, Shogun, Bigfoot, Soa, Struve. Out of those, I'd lean Struve the most except how he is after his condition is such a wild card and as Minsk said earlier, his fight IQ is so extremely low sometimes to the point that gambling on him is always dicey. Think I'm going to go with Magny and Ronda R1 for this card.

I like those bets and feel similarly about the Lil Nog / Shogun fight in particular.

I think value on this card is in those bets you listed and the undercard fights. In particular I feel strongly about Warley Alves winning handily and Patrick Cummins being a good bet at -160, even if him losing will make it look stupid because it means he gets kod early.

One thing I don't feel lotteryish is the Palelei fight. Bigfoot is as done as it gets - not just his chin, his speed, his power, I imagine his cardio (except we wouldn't know) and theres no dynamic like that with Palelei - who is pretty bad but completely capable of doing what needs to be done to get Bigfoot out of there.

Gadlha opening at -220 was unquestionably a good line IMO. Could be wrong, and I think the fight will look close at times, but ultimately JAG has no way to actually threaten her and I see 30-27 30-27 29-28 kinda stuff there.

I see Struve beating up Big Nog slowly and boringly, but either guy could certainly be ko'd.

On July 30 2015 22:01 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On July 30 2015 20:40 Minsk wrote: Maia keeps getting better and better, although I was really impressed with Magny until he lost the last fight. Makes zero sense. Not sure the rest made much more sense.

Oh, you're right. I thought I rememberd someone beating him up. If that's the case, I would take Magny at these odds, I see him winning a close decision victory.

The only thing that concerns me is that its in Brazil, that might justify the odds not to touch the fight at all.

On July 30 2015 23:18 Minsk wrote: The only thing that concerns me is that its in Brazil, that might justify the odds not to touch the fight at all.

The fight is never going to a decision, Ronda takes it in round 1 probably like 70%+ of the time.

I think Holm is the only woman with decent odds to beat Ronda, Cyborg is so strong I suppose she has outs too but she is too wild and messy ronda would take her down too.

"close decision win" is something that - unfortunately - a foreigner will never get in brazil, you guys who bet should all know that by now

On July 31 2015 01:39 Raidern wrote: "close decision win" is something that - unfortunately - a foreigner will never get in brazil, you guys who bet should all know that by now

you are right, that wasnt close

I think this "brazilian judges" thing is a myth, I think what happens is there's many hometown decisions when the crowd is cheering hard for someone
most of the times the judges in brazilian events are not even brazilian ( as in the TJ vs Raphael Assunção bout )

On July 31 2015 08:49 drone666 wrote: Show nested quote + On July 31 2015 01:39 Raidern wrote: "close decision win" is something that - unfortunately - a foreigner will never get in brazil, you guys who bet should all know that by now you are right, that wasnt close

It's more about the crowd cheering and influencing incompetent judges. This fight is a perfect example because even though Machida was the Brazilian and 'got robbed' (I wouldn't call it a robbery, but apparently MMA Decisions would) - it was a boring, quiet fight. Judges probably figured, "crowd quiet = our guys losing"

Gonna be watching closely on certain match-ups, especially given the new USADA regulation combined with the fact that this is in Brazil where the rumor is testing is always light.

Ronda Rousey (135) vs. Bethe Correia (134) - for women’s bantamweight title
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (206) vs. Mauricio Rua (206)
Fernando Bruno (155) vs. Glaico Franca (156) - “TUF: Brazil 4? lightweight tournament final
Dileno Lopes (135) vs. Reginaldo Vieira (135) - “TUF: Brazil 4? bantamweight tournament final
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (240) vs. Stefan Struve (265)
Soa Palelei (264) vs. Antonio Silva (265)
Jessica Aguilar (116) vs. Claudia Gadelha (116) - Women's Strawweight #1 contender match
Neil Magny (171) vs. Demian Maia (171)
Rafael Cavalcante (205) vs. Patrick Cummins (206)
Warlley Alves (171) vs. Nordine Taleb (171)
Iuri Alcantara (136) vs. Leandro Issa (136)
Clint Hester (186.7)* vs. Vitor Miranda (186)
Guido Cannetti (135) vs. Hugo Viana (136)


* Hester was given one hour to reach 186 pounds or less.

----------

$50 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/45904...tasy-mma-rousey-vs-correia-81-T-free/

Bet's are in the books. Hopefully can be my 8th straight UFC event in a row and 11 of last 12 overall!

Notes:

Went the other direction on the Shogun fight, at first I bet Lil Nog and then realized I was completely off and that Shogun should win so I double-down the other way at similar odds so not really juiced raped.

Got Gadlha early at -220 so hedging with Aguilar decision at +600 felt great.

Feel great about Alves, Alcantara, and Palelei.

Not so great on Cummins but still solid, I think the over was a better bet (hedged with Cavalcante rd 1 ko even though he could KO him in the second or third as well, just not nearly as likely)

I'm leaning back toward Maia and think Magney probably loses, but think he's still a great bet at +150 or better.

Struve/Big Nog over and Paleilei/Big Foot under are gold

If all my parlays are live and boil down to Rousey sub at -180, I will hedge with whatever the KO line is.... I just couldn't pass on the -180 sub line early.

+ Show Spoiler +

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On July 29 2015 03:21 soberstone wrote: Rousey probably already has the promos played out (half joking): A) KO - I wanted to punish her for those mean things she said, it's personal when you talk about my family. subtext: I'm the shit, untouchable, pay to watch the baddest bitch on the planet B) Sub - We're in Brasil, I respect the art of Jiu Jitsu and wanted to display that for the great Brazilian fans. subtext: Thank you for the art, I'm clearly the master of it now at this weight and gender, pay to watch the baddest bitch on the planet

Listen at 5:40, lol

2 things that made impressions
1st the majority on the weigh ins were rooting for Rousey, if thats the case in the arena then her PR image is just amazing
2nd Correia has the need to constantly talk in her face meaning she s scared as fuck

Tbh this fight seems very well set up by the UFC to just print moneys, Correia is drawing dead she s not prepared for Rousey, she hasn't fought anyone even close to her level and she got a title shot ...

On July 31 2015 23:05 Spitfiree wrote: 2 things that made impressions 1st the majority on the weigh ins were rooting for Rousey, if thats the case in the arena then her PR image is just amazing 2nd Correia has the need to constantly talk in her face meaning she s scared as fuck Tbh this fight seems very well set up by the UFC to just print moneys, Correia is drawing dead she s not prepared for Rousey, she hasn't fought anyone even close to her level and she got a title shot ...

We already knew Ronda is a much bigger star in Brazil than Bethe. Cyborg Justino isn't even that big of a star in Brazil, and she's the 1st/2nd best female fighter in MMA.

Also, everyone knows Bethe is drawing dead, and people already know that Bethe is Ronda's easiest fight thus far. If this fight wasn't in Brazil, the UFC would have a hard time selling PPV tickets. Having the fight in Brazil and stacking the card with old Brazilian fighters who people cared about 10+ years ago will ensure decent profit for the live event, not sure how well they'll do in PPV sales.

Struve looks a little bit too big and young/strong for Noguiera. I'm not sure that him being an idiot will matter here.

On July 31 2015 23:31 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 31 2015 23:05 Spitfiree wrote: 2 things that made impressions 1st the majority on the weigh ins were rooting for Rousey, if thats the case in the arena then her PR image is just amazing 2nd Correia has the need to constantly talk in her face meaning she s scared as fuck Tbh this fight seems very well set up by the UFC to just print moneys, Correia is drawing dead she s not prepared for Rousey, she hasn't fought anyone even close to her level and she got a title shot ... We already knew Ronda is a much bigger star in Brazil than Bethe. Cyborg Justino isn't even that big of a star in Brazil, and she's the 1st/2nd best female fighter in MMA. Also, everyone knows Bethe is drawing dead, and people already know that Bethe is Ronda's easiest fight thus far. If this fight wasn't in Brazil, the UFC would have a hard time selling PPV tickets. Having the fight in Brazil and stacking the card with old Brazilian fighters who people cared about 10+ years ago will ensure decent profit for the live event, not sure how well they'll do in PPV sales.

I have a sneaking suspicion it's gonna do much better on PPV than it should.

Heard girls at my office talk about ordering the fight - they aren't UFC consumers.

A lot of social media traction due to her cross-over stardom and the whole female angle. It's just the cool thing to do right now in the mainstream to be on Honda's nuts.

I'm gonna ballpark 680k, which would be a phenomenal number for this piece of garbage.

680k? they are lucky if it makes 400-500k imo. I really like this card a lot because of my old favorite fighters, but the avg joe probably sees it as garbage :/ apart from honda (lol) there is not a single top 5 fighter in the whole card.

UFC 184: Ronda vs. Cat Zingano 590,000 PPV buys (main event)
UFC 175: Ronda vs. Alexis Davis 545,000 PPV buys (co-main event to Weidman vs. Machida)
UFC 170: Ronda vs. Sara McMann 340,000 PPV buys (main event)
UFC 168: Ronda vs. Miesha Tate 1,025,000 PPV buys (co-main event to Weidman vs. Anderson #2)
UFC 157: Ronda vs. Liz Carmouche 450,000 PPV buys (main event)

nobody knows who bethe is, media isnt giving much attention because its not really a legit title shot so there's no hype on Bethe
Im pretty sure it would be different vs Cyborg, and crowd would go nuts for her

anybody not going all-in on Ronda has no idea what they are doing

On August 01 2015 04:50 Baalim wrote: anybody not going all-in on Ronda has no idea what they are doing

Thanks for this excellent piece of advice. MMA bettors all around the world would be lost without you.

My bets:

- Ronda + Bigfoot (Palelei is really bad and terrible cardio).
- Ronda + Shields (Palhares has only one trick and Shields has never been submitted)

On August 01 2015 10:34 PuertoRican wrote:

LOl.... bitch they are using is made up and still doesn't even look like Rousey. Terrible.

#willstillprobablyfaponce

Ronda is definitely as mainstream as it gets for MMA for where I live. People I know actually know Ronda is fighting a nobody tonight and are going to a bar to watch. Before, it was GSP and a little bit of Anderson. Now it's Ronda and a tiny bit of Conor

On August 01 2015 04:50 Baalim wrote: anybody not going all-in on Ronda has no idea what they are doing

Going for the -1500 or -1800 line?

I have $1000 on Struve now around -170 lines. I've been wrong before but feeling really good about this one. Small bet on Shogun -210 with $105. I just don't see a 39yo Nogueira beat him, but obviously not very confident in that read given the size of the bet. Although I know some have widely differing opinions still considering a small bet on Bigfoot at +180. I just have such a hard time believing someone as good as him has dropped off so far so fast. Clearly I can see the issue with his chin so that's why I'm not pulling the trigger just yet.

I like a few line movements and I am pumping in some bets on:

Struve at -145, Decided initially to not bet this fight, but I like this odds. If Struve has anything left he should dispatch of Big Nog with ease.

Neil Magny at +170, small bet here. I don't know if he can stay away from Maia's ground game.

I am betting Cummins at -160 as well.

I am on the fence about Bigfoot. He looked very bad at the weigh in imo.

yea i wouldn't put any money on bigfoot if i were you naz. i'm not talking about his chin only, but he looks so incredibly slow these days.

-edit- lol PR only now I saw the wsof weigh in video. "...] one of the toughest, most controversial fighters in mma history [..]" about palhares lmao

On August 01 2015 19:49 Raidern wrote: yea i wouldn't put any money on bigfoot if i were you naz. i'm not talking about his chin only, but he looks so incredibly slow these days. -edit- lol PR only now I saw the wsof weigh in video. "[...] one of the toughest, most controversial fighters in mma history [..]" about palhares lmao

The announcer also said Shields "now has a 15-fight win streak." He twisted the words to make it seem as if he's currently on a 15-fight win streak, when everyone knows he isn't.

I'll watch the last 2 fights on that card, but skip the rest since it'll be on during the same time as UFC.

Added

Magney via KO/KO/DQ @ $20.00 +800 to win $160.00
Gadelha via Sub @$40.00 +500 to win $200.00
Canetti @ $25.00 +400 to win $100.00
Miranda via Sub @$10.00 +1,350 to win $135.00
Miranda rd 3 @$10.00 +1,275 to win $127.50
Miranda via Decision @ $30.00 +445 to win $133.50
Alves via KO @ $40.00 + +400 to win $200.00

On August 01 2015 20:47 soberstone wrote: Added Magney via KO/KO/DQ @ $20.00 +800 to win $160.00 Gadelha via Sub @$40.00 +500 $200.00

Damn son, you love you some Gadelha!

The 2 props I like the best for this fight are Gadelha decision -135 and Aguilar +3.5 +150. I'd actually recommend the points at plus odds on Aguilar to anyone who has a lot riding on Gadelha, especially since you have the potential of winning all of your Gadelha bets and the Aguilar points bet.

The Aguilar point spread will most likely get bet down, as it should.

On August 01 2015 21:21 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On August 01 2015 20:47 soberstone wrote: Added Magney via KO/KO/DQ @ $20.00 +800 to win $160.00 Gadelha via Sub @$40.00 +500 $200.00 Damn son, you love you some Gadelha! The 2 props I like the best for this fight are Gadelha decision -135 and Aguilar +3.5 +150. I'd actually recommend the points at plus odds on Aguilar to anyone who has a lot riding on Gadelha, especially since you have the potential of winning all of your Gadelha bets and the Aguilar points bet. The Aguilar point spread will most likely get bet down, as it should.

Yah I do haha... but that's a hedge.

I got Gadelha early at -220.... than I put a big bet on Gadelha decision at -130 and an over-hedge on Aguilar decision at +600. Gadhela sub is a pure hedge as those are the only 3 outcomes I can see and I am not getting too juice raped because of when I placed each bet.

The only thing I feel very sure of is that Aguilar isn't finishing Gadelha. Gadelha wins the fight an overwhelming majority of the time, Gadelha wins via decision happens more than half the time, and Gadelha does find a finish, it'll be a sub >>> half the time, so I placed my bets with those premises in mind.

Only way I lose on my bets is an Aguilar finish which isn't happening, or I lose small on a Gadhela KO which could happen but is unlikely.

Win big on a Gadelha decision.

Shoot it. First bet of the night $25 on the 4:1 dog for $100.

Let's go.

Miranda, baby!

Miranda and Cavalcante are my two biggest plays on DraftKings tonight.

Edit: Aside from Ronda, of course.

Big loss there. Miranda props all missed and Hester lost. Terrible performance - had all the ways in the world to win that fight but I should have never trusted his IQ. -$198 on that one.

On August 01 2015 23:47 PuertoRican wrote: Miranda, baby! Miranda and Cavalcante are my two biggest plays on DraftKings tonight. Edit: Aside from Ronda, of course.

Thats a great play, your in good shape

On August 01 2015 23:49 soberstone wrote: Big loss there. Miranda props all missed and Hester lost. Terrible performance - had all the ways in the world to win that fight but I should have never trusted his IQ. -$198 on that one.

Hester has been overrated in his UFC career, and I've managed to take advantage of it. It's mostly due to him being black and athletic, but he sucks as an MMA fighter. His striking generally consists of wide hooks, and he gasses in his fights that go past 1.5 rounds.

Hester looked like shit yesterday on the scales, even though he made weight on his second attempt an hour or so later. He usually comes in with abs and a flat chest, while it was the opposite yesterday.

Also, he looked like a fat piece of shit (compared to his usual size) just 1 month ago:

He might be injured, cuz he never tries to wrestle in his fights, at least not like he did today.

Edit: Miranda has striking credentials that far exceed anything Hester has ever done, which is probably why he felt he needed to wrestle.

Bam. GJ Yuri. Had me worried in the first.

Good result from Alcantara.

Only had him in 1 team cuz I had a feeling it would go the distance. Originally had Issa in 3 teams as an underdog play, but then I re-watched his fights and decided he'd lose a decision and possibly get stopped ITD.

Hopefully a ton of people stacked up on Hester and Alcantara and Viana on DraftKings, as it works out better for me.

Lets go Warley. I'll take a decision or sub, but a KO would be super nice.

Stupid move by Taleb. Got impatient.

OK Cummins, either get ktfo in rd 1 or win, preferably a decision :D

Terrible fight. I didn't expect both guys to gas so easily. They were so slow after round 1, but Feijao was worse.

He's pretty much done now. I expected him to fight like he used to fight against wrestlers, pre-Ryan Bader, but he was worse. He was probably on TRT back in Strikeforce.

Nicely done Cummins. Way to fight your fight. Fejio gassing was expected to utmost degree.

Damn. Straight owned son.

i may be ignorant but was that tap out of intense discomfort? it didnt seem like it was strangling him

On August 02 2015 01:51 Raidern wrote: i may be ignorant but was that tap out of intense discomfort? it didnt seem like it was strangling him

I'm a noob to this but the arm wasn't under the chin is that normal?

On August 02 2015 01:51 Raidern wrote: i may be ignorant but was that tap out of intense discomfort? it didnt seem like it was strangling him

Dunno, couldn't tell from the camera angle. I assume part of the reason why he tapped was frustration, cuz he knew he couldn't do anything on the ground, let alone stop a take down. He was either giving up full mount, or his back.

Sucks for Magny.

I'll still take Magny over most of the division, though, as this was just a bad match-up.

It was a neck crank more than a choke. You are correct. Magney wasn't on his way out in that position, unless Maia has some other-worldy RNC where he can constrict the opposite artery, but I saw a good angle and it looked much more like a crank.

I don't like the fact that Magney had a full camp to prepare for that and still wasn't even close to stopping it.

His defense on the ground was impressive but the fact is if he was going down there that easily he wasn't gonna win that fight.

"my goal is not to KO, to hurt. my goal is to submit so the opponent can go back to training and improve"
demian maia just said that on brazilian tv and i hate his mindset. his goal should be winning the fight, no matter what it takes as long as it's within the rules

On August 02 2015 02:09 Raidern wrote: "my goal is not to KO, to hurt. my goal is to submit so the opponent can go back to training and improve" demian maia just said that on brazilian tv and i hate his mindset. his goal should be winning the fight, no matter what it takes as long as it's within the rules

He has a similar quote on his UFC profile page. I remember it so well because I thought it was ridiculous when I read it.

Look right below his picture: http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Demian-Maia

Magny seemed so incredibly unprepared on takedown defense. Which makes no sense when you have a full camp for Maia. That or I just always underrate how strong Maia is in any form of clinch

Post a non-laggy stream if you got one. I haven't been able to find a stream that doesn't lag for the PPV.

any streams?

From what I saw, Claudia clearly won. Jessica didn't move her head and ate most of Claudia's power punches like they were candy and she had a sweet tooth.

Rebooting my computer to see if the lag goes away

firstrow.biz is ok

http://firstrows.biz/boxing/ufc-190-ronda-rousey-vs-bethe-correia-frs111gg4

i thought the fight was fairly entertaining. women have been improving a lot.

The stream I was watching sucked, but I could tell that Claudia was throwing power shots and Jessica wouldn't move her head much.

I don't think her striking looked improved since her last fight, but maybe her game plan was to throw mostly punches and keep it on the feet.

Jessica will need to work on her head movement for her next fight.

LOOOOL

yea i dunno if cladia has improved, i meant women in general considering the last few years. fights now look more technical than back in the day when cyborg faced gina i think.

claudia looked very flat on her feet like a tired barao or aldo hehe

Palelei is gassed, come on bigfoot

fuck yeah :D

jesus, what a ridiculously bad gas tank palelei has. funny that he looked bad but still won :D

Soa was gassed to start round 2... xD

Congrats to Bigfoot.

I'm watching the fights with casual fans of mma. A little embarrassed about that fight. One was like 'it's like watching two whales with no lungs have a drunken bar fight'.'

And I could not dispute that.

On August 02 2015 03:02 iakim322 wrote: I'm watching the fights with casual fans of mma. A little embarrassed about that fight. One was like 'it's like watching two whales with no lungs have a drunken bar fight'.'

This is not the card you want to watch with casual MMA fans. You're going to turn them away from the sport.

Yeah but they're here coz of Honda

On August 01 2015 16:39 alejandicto wrote: My bets: - Ronda + Bigfoot (Palelei is really bad and terrible cardio). - Ronda + Shields (Palhares has only one trick and Shields has never been submitted)

: ) Only waiting for Shields to win, because no way Ronda lose this fight

my internet so laggy :[

Ah yes, the punch them in the face strategy.

minotauro should just retire
the fact that struve went in there to bang in the last 10s of a fighthe had won shows how low fighting iq he has. just circle out and take your win man.

aw struve why mention puking you just won the fight i hate when any fighters do that

yes!!!!!! just hit so fat on that fight

On August 02 2015 03:31 Raidern wrote: minotauro should just retire the fact that struve went in there to bang in the last 10s of a fighthe had won shows how low fighting iq he has. just circle out and take your win man.

Struve didn't look great in there, especially since he had a Brazilian zombie walking after him.

He'll lose his next fight in devastating fashion.

i agree
nog was a dream match up for him

Just noticed how hard magny fucked my main dk lineup. Cummins, ko. Silva, ko. Miranda, ko. Honda, guaranteed cash money. Magny...big fat 0. Coulda been a really good one

any stream to WSOF ?? cant find, want to watch the last 2

On August 02 2015 03:44 drone666 wrote: any stream to WSOF ?? cant find, want to watch the last 2

I'm watching it on TV, but www.firstrowus1.eu and www.realstreamunited.com have links up for it.

Wiziwig.to

none of the streams working here, all for UFC working but wsof are all off, sick life

vipbox.tv working for me, alphasomething it's the ifrst link

when is honda fighting? all i see are no name bullshit fighters