UFC on Fox 16: Dillashaw vs. Barao 2 - Page 2

On July 20 2015 20:29 Minsk wrote: Show nested quote + On July 20 2015 20:11 soberstone wrote:   On July 20 2015 19:22 traxamillion wrote: ok wtf so barao walks at 170 and fights at 135? So if I walk at 150-155 I would for sure be 125 lb or less if i had to fight in a cage Barao is pretty much killing himself to make weight and had an entire UFC card cancelled because he 'hit his head passing out' the day before the last Dillashaw v Barao rematch. If you buy that I've got some real estate to sell you. The guy probably just passed out from being nearly dead. Nova Unio - the camp that he, Aldo, and a lot of other top Brazilians train at - is notorious for not knowing shit about safe training and weight cutting. He has subsequently made weight and beat a solid top 10-15 guy - Mitch Gagnon - in unimpressive fashion, but it's ridiculous that he's still trying to hold a belt at 35. I wouldn't hedge that bet at all unless he somehow walked into the weigh-ins and looked energized and not emaciated. Dillashaw is also just a terrible stylistic match-up for him because his best asset is his top game (can't out-wrestle Dillashaw) and his power/speed in the pocket (Dillashaw won't trade with him unless he already has him hurt). I think it will likely be a closer fight than the last time with Dillashaw taking over mid-way through the fight, but I could also see TJ dispatching of him easily. Renan is certainly dangerous and COULD finish TJ if he connects clean early, but I find it almost impossible to see Renan winning the fight on points. I don't know, Dillashaw had a cakewalk last time. Renan is a proven champion with years of experience and very few leaks. All it takes is one slip up by Dillashaw, who doesn't have that extensive experience, and Barao is very good at catching people that make a mistake. Thats really what its about to me. Thats really why Barao should be favored in my opinion.

Renan's leaks are that he's cutting too much weight but more importantly, he can get outpointed because he doesn't want a fast paced fight which sort of makes him a slow starter (due to 5 rounds + weight-cut). Eddie Wineland won rd 1 vs Barao by landing clean boxing combo's and avoiding big counters. Michael McDonald rocked Barao and won rd 1 big time but for whatever reason totally gassed later. Urijah Faber kinda isn't good anymore and just didn't have shit for Barao, so those victories weren't all that impressive to me. Barao was just a bit over-rated the whole time he was champ. He wouldn't have ever beaten Cruz IMO. He's still a fantastic top 3-5 BW, but nothing more unless he shows me otherwise.

Barao's individual skill sets are absolutely insane, especially his finishing instincts, straight muai thai, and his top game and submissions are P4P good, but he's not that new breed champion that can fight and beat other people at their own pace when they need to.

Mmmm.... so just watched some Villante and Lawlor tape.

Not stoked with my bet because I actually like the matchup for Lawlor moving up. He has a great chin and fast hands and Villante is very hittable.

On the other hand, Villante looked like he got a lot better for his last fight with Corey Anderson - particularly his cardio and defense, because he was pretty damn terrible before it.

I'm not really happy with the bet, but I don't want to get juice-raped on a hedge. Still think Villante wins but not necessarily 8/10 times. Don't recommend that tail.

On July 20 2015 20:29 Minsk wrote: Show nested quote + On July 20 2015 20:11 soberstone wrote:   On July 20 2015 19:22 traxamillion wrote: ok wtf so barao walks at 170 and fights at 135? So if I walk at 150-155 I would for sure be 125 lb or less if i had to fight in a cage Barao is pretty much killing himself to make weight and had an entire UFC card cancelled because he 'hit his head passing out' the day before the last Dillashaw v Barao rematch. If you buy that I've got some real estate to sell you. The guy probably just passed out from being nearly dead. Nova Unio - the camp that he, Aldo, and a lot of other top Brazilians train at - is notorious for not knowing shit about safe training and weight cutting. He has subsequently made weight and beat a solid top 10-15 guy - Mitch Gagnon - in unimpressive fashion, but it's ridiculous that he's still trying to hold a belt at 35. I wouldn't hedge that bet at all unless he somehow walked into the weigh-ins and looked energized and not emaciated. Dillashaw is also just a terrible stylistic match-up for him because his best asset is his top game (can't out-wrestle Dillashaw) and his power/speed in the pocket (Dillashaw won't trade with him unless he already has him hurt). I think it will likely be a closer fight than the last time with Dillashaw taking over mid-way through the fight, but I could also see TJ dispatching of him easily. Renan is certainly dangerous and COULD finish TJ if he connects clean early, but I find it almost impossible to see Renan winning the fight on points. I don't know, Dillashaw had a cakewalk last time. Renan is a proven champion with years of experience and very few leaks. All it takes is one slip up by Dillashaw, who doesn't have that extensive experience, and Barao is very good at catching people that make a mistake. Thats really what its about to me. Thats really why Barao should be favored in my opinion.

I read a bit about this matchup on a forum with "proven winners", and essentially they think Dillashaw is "about as close to a lock as you can get".
In their first fight, Renan didn't win a single round, and was completly outclassed

I have a feeling this is similar to Silva vs Weidman 2, where a part of the people just see the new champion is a lock, and another part of the people are in deny about their old champion being outclassed.

The thing is, i'm kinda part of the second group (deny people), and i'm probably just gonna bet on the over...

Dillashaw (-215) + Lauzon (-240) - $100 to win $107.56 . First big bet, I feel good about these two in particular.

On July 21 2015 02:01 soberstone wrote: Mmmm.... so just watched some Villante and Lawlor tape. Not stoked with my bet because I actually like the matchup for Lawlor moving up. He has a great chin and fast hands and Villante is very hittable. On the other hand, Villante looked like he got a lot better for his last fight with Corey Anderson - particularly his cardio and defense, because he was pretty damn terrible before it. I'm not really happy with the bet, but I don't want to get juice-raped on a hedge. Still think Villante wins but not necessarily 8/10 times. Don't recommend that tail.

I like Villante to win. I don't like his current line, but I won't lay any money on Lawlor.

Anderson was winning the fight against Villante until the random KO in the 3rd, but it wasn't that Villante won the fight that impressed me, it's how he looked prior to the KO. He improved in a few areas, and since Lawlor was away from MMA for a year due to ACL/MCL injuries, then additional time for unknown reasons, and since he'll be the smaller/less stronger fighter, I like Villante here.

Maybe Villante by decision, since Lawlor is usually durable.

i still cant believe this is a free event, look at supermouse's ufc 191 event thats coming up in a couple months

This weeks Hail Mary.... super Hail Mary at +13442:

318864112-1 7/21/15 11:30am $9.00 $1,209.76 Pending 7 Team Parlay
Pending 7/25/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 T.J. Dillashaw -220* vs Renan Barao
Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Joe Lauzon -250* vs Takanori Gomi
Pending 7/25/15 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1801 Daron Cruickshank -150* vs James Krause
Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1107 Eye wins by 3 round decision +250* vs Not Eye by 3 round decision
Pending 7/25/15 8:30pm Props Fighting 1211 Barboza wins by 3 round decision +280* vs Not Barboza by 3 round decision
Pending 7/25/15 7:00pm Props Fighting 1503 Castillo / Miller goes 3 round distance -175* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
Pending 7/25/15 6:00pm Props Fighting 1703 Caraway / Wineland goes 3 round distance -110* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

Bets thus far:

Phillips/Duke u2.5 +170 (.5u)
Caraway/Wineland u2.5 +105 (.5u)
Paul Felder +110 (1.5u)
Felder/Barboza o1.5 -150 (1u)
Ramsey Nijem -130 (1u)
Bryan Caraway +120 (1.5u)
Barao/Dillashaw o4.5 +145 (1u)
Renan Barao +185 (1u)
Ben Saunders -110 (1u)
Danny Castillo +110 (1u)

On July 21 2015 14:28 Raidern wrote: i still cant believe this is a free event, look at supermouse's ufc 191 event thats coming up in a couple months

MM event does have

Blachowicz vs Johnson

That seems nice. and we don't know what else they will add.

On July 21 2015 21:39 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On July 21 2015 14:28 Raidern wrote: i still cant believe this is a free event, look at supermouse's ufc 191 event thats coming up in a couple months MM event does have Blachowicz vs Johnson That seems nice. and we don't know what else they will add.

Blachowicz v Johnson is a fight where the under 1.5 rds should be like -400. Love it.

Edit: Wrote like an essay on the Miesha Tate v Jessica Eye fight but I'm taking it off because I realize I really haven't put enough effort to offer a good opinion on an overall fight prediction.

On July 22 2015 00:51 soberstone wrote: Edit: Wrote like an essay on the Miesha Tate v Jessica Eye fight but I'm taking it off because I realize I really haven't put enough effort to offer a good opinion on an overall fight prediction.

Well, looks I crushed the Lauzon line. -350 to -400 on everything except Bovada. Traxamillion you should lay a bet.

On July 22 2015 01:57 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 22 2015 00:51 soberstone wrote: Edit: Wrote like an essay on the Miesha Tate v Jessica Eye fight but I'm taking it off because I realize I really haven't put enough effort to offer a good opinion on an overall fight prediction.

haha

I think the Dillashaw finish props in the middle-late rounds are great bets. All my money is on my Maker account so I have to wait for those to open but I'm certainly gonna be betting them.

I've been missing on those props recently (Bisping never hurt Laites at all, McGregor finished Mendes 3 seconds too early) but I think this is one where if Dillashaw breaks Barao early, he'll look for the finish and Barao, with the weight cut and concussive beatdown he received last time, is fairly likely to fall rd 3-4 if he starts eating clean combos and and a good dose of body and head kicks.

Also probably gonna bet a Felder finish. I feel like if it goes the distance that points to a Barboza style fight vs a big finish would likely be on the Felder side. I think winner vs Ferguson would be fun but I do think they should give Ferguson Alvarez because Ferguson would roast him and deserve a title shot.

On July 19 2015 21:57 Minsk wrote: I think Barao should be favored in this odds-wise, I don't think one win against a sluggish Barao with a very significant punch should make Dillashaw a favorite here and it seems enough time has passed to heal Barao's nerves a little bit.

lolwut

TJ was easily winning before the big punch, and Barao had recovered by the 2nd round. TJ just completely dominated him for like 23 minutes.

Not to mention Barao looked very mediocre in his last fight against Clark.

On July 21 2015 02:05 soberstone wrote: Dillashaw (-215) + Lauzon (-240) - $100 to win $107.56 . First big bet, I feel good about these two in particular.

I've noticed that when you say you feel good about bets, they come true.


I think that if you watch the previous fight, you would have every reason to believe Dillashaw will do good, and you have to look outside the fight to make a case for Barao.

1. Barao didn't take Dillashaw very seriously or prepare for him.
2. Barao looked like he had trouble cutting weight, and looked a little off.
3. Dillashaw was trained by Urijah Faber who knew exactly how to teach Dillashaw to specifically prepare for countering Barao from direct experience.

Now if you look at their upcoming fight
1. Barao is more certainly preparing specifically for Dillashaw. While knowing and understanding Dillashaw's style.
2. I don't think that Dillashaw has another style he can pull out of his hat thats viable.
3. Barao has taken the time to prepare, even cancelling the fight after missing weight.

and
4. Barao has a ton of experience and very few leaks, where Dillashaw had an exceptional performance.
5. Basically everything went Dillashaw's way the first fight, he was never tested at all.

I think you have to look outside the actual fight material to understand all these factors and think Barao will win. If you base it off the fight, its a clear inference that Dillashaw should win again.

Regarding Dillashaw vs. Barao #1

- Did Barao seem a little off in the beginning of the first fight? Yes. IMO, he did. Could've been due to a bad weight cut. There was stuff in the media that mentioned Barao wasn't healthy, and/or had a bad weight cut for that fight.

- Did the big punch that dropped Barao in the 1st round have an effect on Barao and turn him into a sitting duck for the rest of the fight? Yes. IMO, it did.

- Did Dillashaw move better and strike better than Barao prior to the knockdown in round 1? Yes. This is fact.

There's several variables that need to be looked at for the second fight, such as:

- Dillashaw's newfound confidence as champion.

- Dillashaw will have the slight advantage if this fight ended in a split-decision, imo.

- How will Barao deal with having to rematch the guy who beat your ass and ended your 9-year winning streak? Barao admitted in the "Road to the Octagon" video that Dillashaw beat him that day, he didn't make any excuses.

- Barao will have to deal with the weight cut and facing a guy who he knows has way better cardio than him, and also throws way more strikes in a fight, and moves way better and faster than him. Barao will have to plan accordingly.

I currently have a bet on o4.5 +145 and Barao +185. Barao is currently up to +200 or more on some books. Dillashaw should be the favorite, but I'm not quick to write off someone like Barao after one loss. Yes, he had a shitty fight against Mitch Gagnon in his first fight after losing his belt, but Dillashaw didn't look all that great against Joe Soto, a guy who I know very well from watching most of his pro career, and I was waiting for him to join the UFC so I could make money betting against him, which I did in his fight against Anthony Birchak. Some people used the excuse that Dillashaw took that fight on 24-hours notice... WTF??? He was training for several months to fight a much better guy, and if anyone should be affected in that fight, it should be Soto, as he had to lose all the weight in 24 hours to fight for 5-rounds against a guy he used to train with.

Anyway, I expect Dillashaw to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if Barao won. I definitely don't cap Dillashaw as a -240 favorite.