mayweather pacquiao fight thread - Page 2

Pinnacle has a team of very sharp analysts and most other books copy their opening lines, afaik. sometimes books will take a position on one side or the other if they think the majority of money is coming in on the square side, depending on their liquidity and risk profile. but i think for an event like this with so much volume coming in from bettors they just try to lock in profit (unless they have insider knowledge of riggedness or something).

Anyway if this impression is wrong and newbs like me are moving the line, doesn't that make it very attractive to bet on Pac?

not sure i understand what you're saying here. the line has moved in Pacquiao's favor - if newbs are moving the line as you suggest, it would imply betting on Mayweather is correct.

i personally have no idea whether the line has moved from casual or sharp action. Pacquiao is clearly more likable in the public's eye, so to me it makes the most sense that square money is going on his side, and sharps are waiting to get the best price possible on Mayweather. that said, i'm not betting on the match because:

a) what Khan said, boxing is a bunch of rigged BS, and

b) i really want to see Pacquiao win, don't think i could feel "good" about it if i lost $500 on the match

wait what i mean is

1. to ppl like me who are interested but dont rly know anything, it looks like mayweather is heavily favored
2.The bookmakers now (if they want to guarantee profit no matter what happens?) offer worse odds on mayweather because many ppl are betting him. That way, when mayweather wins, they have to pay a lot of people but they owe them less money each so it balances out with the fewer people who bet on pac owe the sportsbook more money, netting them the rake in the end
3. The sharks now bet on pacquiao to take advantage of ppls bias in favor of mayweather?

I was wondering if that happens, or the same thing with simply betting for their countryman and moving the line that way (since I guess americans bet much more sports)

but yeah if they have a team of analysts then all of that is out the door of course. Man if they have a team of analysts that means you guys are basicly betting against those analysts with 10% rake or whatever on top? How can you win in the long run? And presumably when its rigged the analysts know that as well, that makes me very reluctant to start betting sports

Another question; I want to see pacquiao win as well, but if mayweather wins this and retires undefeated where does that rank him amongst all time greats?

Bet the bank on Mayweather - Bigger and better boxer.

But then again - boxing is rigged.

On April 22 2015 09:19 Jelle wrote: wait what i mean is 1. to ppl like me who are interested but dont rly know anything, it looks like mayweather is heavily favored 2.The bookmakers now (if they want to guarantee profit no matter what happens?) offer worse odds on mayweather because many ppl are betting him. That way, when mayweather wins, they have to pay a lot of people but they owe them less money each so it balances out with the fewer people who bet on pac owe the sportsbook more money, netting them the rake in the end 3. The sharks now bet on pacquiao to take advantage of ppls bias in favor of mayweather? I was wondering if that happens, or the same thing with simply betting for their countryman and moving the line that way (since I guess americans bet much more sports) but yeah if they have a team of analysts then all of that is out the door of course. Man if they have a team of analysts that means you guys are basicly betting against those analysts with 10% rake or whatever on top? How can you win in the long run? And presumably when its rigged the analysts know that as well, that makes me very reluctant to start betting sports

i think the bolded is a misunderstanding; the odds for betting on Mayweather have gotten better, not worse (at least according to this thread he went from a 3.something-1 favorite to a 2-1 favorite, i haven't personally been paying attention to the line). in my last post when i said the line has moved in Pacquiao's favor, i meant the odds are saying he has a stronger chance to win compared to the opening line, not that the payout from betting on him is better.

i think your rationale for betting on Pacquiao is wrong for the reasons stated (not saying betting on him is right or wrong, just that the reasons you gave don't lead to that conclusion). also Pacquiao is a national hero in the Philippines, and i don't think Americans have any special sentiment for Mayweather - i think the average American would prefer Pacquiao to win too, but that's just a guess and could be wrong. however, i don't think the fact that some betting sites have analysts takes the psychological aspect of the markets you're referring to out the door. they might have a model that they use (along with their own judgement) to decide the opening lines, but they will still move the lines based on what the market dictates.

to elaborate, one reason it's sometimes possible to be +EV betting against experts + paying vig is because you're not necessarily always betting on what they think the true line is. for ex. if they think a team should be favored by 5 points but the public will still side with the favorite at 8 points, they might set the line to Team X (-8).

i don't know if this is the best example to use since i'm guessing American college football isn't big in Europe, but the best example i can think of is the 2013 college football championship game of Notre Dame vs Alabama, i think Bama was like a -13 pt favorite or something. ND has a rich, storied tradition and an enormous following. there was a ton of nostalgia surrounding them and celebrating this as their return to greatness, but the reality was that Alabama was just out of their league. i think even a lot of people like me who only casually follow college football were able to make +EV bets on Alabama because the public was very predictable.

another reason in this case is that by all accounts, MMA/boxing are much more difficult to model than baseball, basketball, etc. you might be able to pick off a situational spot here or there, but it's really rare for anyone to have an edge betting on a major market like NFL/NBA/MLB sides while putting in consistent volume. there are however a reasonable amount of people who can beat MMA just by paying close attention to the fighters and having good knowledge of the sport.

this is a really good article on how lines are made, it's mostly for NBA and some of the principles probably can't be applied to boxing, but if you're interested in betting other sports or just curious it's worth a read: http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/04/10/f...ecord-straight-on-basketball-betting/

wow man that post helps me out a lot, good info over and above my question. Thank you so much!

Both will make so much money out of this fight I wouldn't be surprised to go either way cuz of no fucks given

On April 22 2015 11:50 bigredhoss wrote: Show nested quote + On April 22 2015 09:19 Jelle wrote: wait what i mean is 1. to ppl like me who are interested but dont rly know anything, it looks like mayweather is heavily favored 2.The bookmakers now (if they want to guarantee profit no matter what happens?) offer worse odds on mayweather because many ppl are betting him. That way, when mayweather wins, they have to pay a lot of people but they owe them less money each so it balances out with the fewer people who bet on pac owe the sportsbook more money, netting them the rake in the end 3. The sharks now bet on pacquiao to take advantage of ppls bias in favor of mayweather? I was wondering if that happens, or the same thing with simply betting for their countryman and moving the line that way (since I guess americans bet much more sports) but yeah if they have a team of analysts then all of that is out the door of course. Man if they have a team of analysts that means you guys are basicly betting against those analysts with 10% rake or whatever on top? How can you win in the long run? And presumably when its rigged the analysts know that as well, that makes me very reluctant to start betting sports i think the bolded is a misunderstanding; the odds for betting on Mayweather have gotten better, not worse (at least according to this thread he went from a 3.something-1 favorite to a 2-1 favorite, i haven't personally been paying attention to the line). in my last post when i said the line has moved in Pacquiao's favor, i meant the odds are saying he has a stronger chance to win compared to the opening line, not that the payout from betting on him is better. i think your rationale for betting on Pacquiao is wrong for the reasons stated (not saying betting on him is right or wrong, just that the reasons you gave don't lead to that conclusion). also Pacquiao is a national hero in the Philippines, and i don't think Americans have any special sentiment for Mayweather - i think the average American would prefer Pacquiao to win too, but that's just a guess and could be wrong. however, i don't think the fact that some betting sites have analysts takes the psychological aspect of the markets you're referring to out the door. they might have a model that they use (along with their own judgement) to decide the opening lines, but they will still move the lines based on what the market dictates. to elaborate, one reason it's sometimes possible to be +EV betting against experts + paying vig is because you're not necessarily always betting on what they think the true line is. for ex. if they think a team should be favored by 5 points but the public will still side with the favorite at 8 points, they might set the line to Team X (-8). i don't know if this is the best example to use since i'm guessing American college football isn't big in Europe, but the best example i can think of is the 2013 college football championship game of Notre Dame vs Alabama, i think Bama was like a -13 pt favorite or something. ND has a rich, storied tradition and an enormous following. there was a ton of nostalgia surrounding them and celebrating this as their return to greatness, but the reality was that Alabama was just out of their league. i think even a lot of people like me who only casually follow college football were able to make +EV bets on Alabama because the public was very predictable. another reason in this case is that by all accounts, MMA/boxing are much more difficult to model than baseball, basketball, etc. you might be able to pick off a situational spot here or there, but it's really rare for anyone to have an edge betting on a major market like NFL/NBA/MLB sides while putting in consistent volume. there are however a reasonable amount of people who can beat MMA just by paying close attention to the fighters and having good knowledge of the sport. this is a really good article on how lines are made, it's mostly for NBA and some of the principles probably can't be applied to boxing, but if you're interested in betting other sports or just curious it's worth a read: http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/04/10/f...ecord-straight-on-basketball-betting/

this is a common misconception. vegas sets the line the way they think it should be set, not based on public opinion.

basically if vegas sets a line at -8 that should be at -5 because of public perception, sharps will come and hammer them for way more than the public will. the general public bets $10-$100 at a time. there are people out there coordinating operations that are betting millions. they have a lot of incentive to have accurate lines.

im not sure if sharp action or the general public moved the line. this fight is so big it could be like the super bowl where the general public can move a line quite a bit just through the sheer number of people betting. but often when a line moves this much its due to sharp money

On April 22 2015 14:48 Spitfiree wrote: Both will make so much money out of this fight I wouldn't be surprised to go either way cuz of no fucks given

You are so narrow-minded it is disgusting. They have enough money to live like you dream to for the rest of their lives. Their fighting record and a defining match in their careers means more than money. Its not like they are struggling living on the dole. Sit down little man.

Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world - Arthur Schopenhauer

Hopefully the fight lives up to the hype!!

Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao contract still not signed

http://espn.go.com/boxing/story/_/id/...er-manny-pacquiao-contract-not-signed

Despite Floyd being notorious for huge sports bets, a giant entourage and lots of expensive cars (he has 4 bugattis), Manny is rumored to be broke/possibly in debt/owing back taxes/etc. Apparently he just cant say no to anyone in the Philippines, handing out money to the church, charities, etc.

http://www.punditarena.com/boxing/rbarrett/manny-pacquiao-flat-broke-heres/
http://www.ibtimes.com/manny-pacquiao...yan-aid-may-owe-50-million-back-taxes

pretty sad, especially considering all he would have to do is put away a small percentage from one of his fights to set his family up for life. but old habits die hard.

On April 22 2015 15:58 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On April 22 2015 11:50 bigredhoss wrote:   On April 22 2015 09:19 Jelle wrote: wait what i mean is 1. to ppl like me who are interested but dont rly know anything, it looks like mayweather is heavily favored 2.The bookmakers now (if they want to guarantee profit no matter what happens?) offer worse odds on mayweather because many ppl are betting him. That way, when mayweather wins, they have to pay a lot of people but they owe them less money each so it balances out with the fewer people who bet on pac owe the sportsbook more money, netting them the rake in the end 3. The sharks now bet on pacquiao to take advantage of ppls bias in favor of mayweather? I was wondering if that happens, or the same thing with simply betting for their countryman and moving the line that way (since I guess americans bet much more sports) but yeah if they have a team of analysts then all of that is out the door of course. Man if they have a team of analysts that means you guys are basicly betting against those analysts with 10% rake or whatever on top? How can you win in the long run? And presumably when its rigged the analysts know that as well, that makes me very reluctant to start betting sports i think the bolded is a misunderstanding; the odds for betting on Mayweather have gotten better, not worse (at least according to this thread he went from a 3.something-1 favorite to a 2-1 favorite, i haven't personally been paying attention to the line). in my last post when i said the line has moved in Pacquiao's favor, i meant the odds are saying he has a stronger chance to win compared to the opening line, not that the payout from betting on him is better. i think your rationale for betting on Pacquiao is wrong for the reasons stated (not saying betting on him is right or wrong, just that the reasons you gave don't lead to that conclusion). also Pacquiao is a national hero in the Philippines, and i don't think Americans have any special sentiment for Mayweather - i think the average American would prefer Pacquiao to win too, but that's just a guess and could be wrong. however, i don't think the fact that some betting sites have analysts takes the psychological aspect of the markets you're referring to out the door. they might have a model that they use (along with their own judgement) to decide the opening lines, but they will still move the lines based on what the market dictates. to elaborate, one reason it's sometimes possible to be +EV betting against experts + paying vig is because you're not necessarily always betting on what they think the true line is. for ex. if they think a team should be favored by 5 points but the public will still side with the favorite at 8 points, they might set the line to Team X (-8). i don't know if this is the best example to use since i'm guessing American college football isn't big in Europe, but the best example i can think of is the 2013 college football championship game of Notre Dame vs Alabama, i think Bama was like a -13 pt favorite or something. ND has a rich, storied tradition and an enormous following. there was a ton of nostalgia surrounding them and celebrating this as their return to greatness, but the reality was that Alabama was just out of their league. i think even a lot of people like me who only casually follow college football were able to make +EV bets on Alabama because the public was very predictable. another reason in this case is that by all accounts, MMA/boxing are much more difficult to model than baseball, basketball, etc. you might be able to pick off a situational spot here or there, but it's really rare for anyone to have an edge betting on a major market like NFL/NBA/MLB sides while putting in consistent volume. there are however a reasonable amount of people who can beat MMA just by paying close attention to the fighters and having good knowledge of the sport. this is a really good article on how lines are made, it's mostly for NBA and some of the principles probably can't be applied to boxing, but if you're interested in betting other sports or just curious it's worth a read: http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/04/10/f...ecord-straight-on-basketball-betting/ this is a common misconception. vegas sets the line the way they think it should be set, not based on public opinion. basically if vegas sets a line at -8 that should be at -5 because of public perception, sharps will come and hammer them for way more than the public will. the general public bets $10-$100 at a time. there are people out there coordinating operations that are betting millions. they have a lot of incentive to have accurate lines. im not sure if sharp action or the general public moved the line. this fight is so big it could be like the super bowl where the general public can move a line quite a bit just through the sheer number of people betting. but often when a line moves this much its due to sharp money

i know they're not setting lines based on public opinion for a random regular-season game, but i've always been under the impression that events like the Super Bowl or major title fights were exceptions to this because they take in such a huge amount of public action. if that's wrong though i apologize.

anyway, the point i was trying to make is that situational handicapping and interpreting line movement can be a way to make +ev sports bets without actually building a model or being a top 0.5% expert on a sport (not saying it's easy or that it's always clear what line movements mean).

On April 22 2015 23:35 bigredhoss wrote: Show nested quote + On April 22 2015 15:58 Daut wrote:   On April 22 2015 11:50 bigredhoss wrote:   On April 22 2015 09:19 Jelle wrote: wait what i mean is 1. to ppl like me who are interested but dont rly know anything, it looks like mayweather is heavily favored 2.The bookmakers now (if they want to guarantee profit no matter what happens?) offer worse odds on mayweather because many ppl are betting him. That way, when mayweather wins, they have to pay a lot of people but they owe them less money each so it balances out with the fewer people who bet on pac owe the sportsbook more money, netting them the rake in the end 3. The sharks now bet on pacquiao to take advantage of ppls bias in favor of mayweather? I was wondering if that happens, or the same thing with simply betting for their countryman and moving the line that way (since I guess americans bet much more sports) but yeah if they have a team of analysts then all of that is out the door of course. Man if they have a team of analysts that means you guys are basicly betting against those analysts with 10% rake or whatever on top? How can you win in the long run? And presumably when its rigged the analysts know that as well, that makes me very reluctant to start betting sports i think the bolded is a misunderstanding; the odds for betting on Mayweather have gotten better, not worse (at least according to this thread he went from a 3.something-1 favorite to a 2-1 favorite, i haven't personally been paying attention to the line). in my last post when i said the line has moved in Pacquiao's favor, i meant the odds are saying he has a stronger chance to win compared to the opening line, not that the payout from betting on him is better. i think your rationale for betting on Pacquiao is wrong for the reasons stated (not saying betting on him is right or wrong, just that the reasons you gave don't lead to that conclusion). also Pacquiao is a national hero in the Philippines, and i don't think Americans have any special sentiment for Mayweather - i think the average American would prefer Pacquiao to win too, but that's just a guess and could be wrong. however, i don't think the fact that some betting sites have analysts takes the psychological aspect of the markets you're referring to out the door. they might have a model that they use (along with their own judgement) to decide the opening lines, but they will still move the lines based on what the market dictates. to elaborate, one reason it's sometimes possible to be +EV betting against experts + paying vig is because you're not necessarily always betting on what they think the true line is. for ex. if they think a team should be favored by 5 points but the public will still side with the favorite at 8 points, they might set the line to Team X (-8). i don't know if this is the best example to use since i'm guessing American college football isn't big in Europe, but the best example i can think of is the 2013 college football championship game of Notre Dame vs Alabama, i think Bama was like a -13 pt favorite or something. ND has a rich, storied tradition and an enormous following. there was a ton of nostalgia surrounding them and celebrating this as their return to greatness, but the reality was that Alabama was just out of their league. i think even a lot of people like me who only casually follow college football were able to make +EV bets on Alabama because the public was very predictable. another reason in this case is that by all accounts, MMA/boxing are much more difficult to model than baseball, basketball, etc. you might be able to pick off a situational spot here or there, but it's really rare for anyone to have an edge betting on a major market like NFL/NBA/MLB sides while putting in consistent volume. there are however a reasonable amount of people who can beat MMA just by paying close attention to the fighters and having good knowledge of the sport. this is a really good article on how lines are made, it's mostly for NBA and some of the principles probably can't be applied to boxing, but if you're interested in betting other sports or just curious it's worth a read: http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/04/10/f...ecord-straight-on-basketball-betting/ this is a common misconception. vegas sets the line the way they think it should be set, not based on public opinion. basically if vegas sets a line at -8 that should be at -5 because of public perception, sharps will come and hammer them for way more than the public will. the general public bets $10-$100 at a time. there are people out there coordinating operations that are betting millions. they have a lot of incentive to have accurate lines. im not sure if sharp action or the general public moved the line. this fight is so big it could be like the super bowl where the general public can move a line quite a bit just through the sheer number of people betting. but often when a line moves this much its due to sharp money i know they're not setting lines based on public opinion for a random regular-season game, but i've always been under the impression that events like the Super Bowl or major title fights were exceptions to this because they take in such a huge amount of public action. if that's wrong though i apologize. anyway, the point i was trying to make is that situational handicapping and interpreting line movement can be a way to make +ev sports bets without actually building a model or being a top 0.5% expert on a sport (not saying it's easy or that it's always clear what line movements mean).

Pretty sure you are 100 percent correct here.

And furthermore, ofcourse the line is based on public perception, or else they would never move it. Sure, they set it at about what they think is correct which the law of big numbers says the collective public conscious won't be too far off from the truth anyway, but if Vegas was so confident in their lines, than they would never move and they would just take the variance with the knowledge that in the long run, they'd make way more money. The line you see after a day or so is completely reflective of the GP's opinion. Thinking otherwise is ridiculous.

Edit: What I would be interested to know is what percent of the overall money on superfights or superbowls, etc, is sharp money vs casuals. If anyone knows the answer to that I'd love to know.

Double Edit: I wonder if eventually betting sites will be able to develop sort of insane algorithm where over time they figure out who the Sharps are and than weigh their bets heavier in their line adjustments. Would that even be legal? I don't really see why not.

Yea sure that would be legal afaik

http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/4/26/...ained-how-boxings-mega-fight-was-made

As an MMA fan this was really enlightening for me.

On April 22 2015 17:23 cariadon wrote: Show nested quote + On April 22 2015 14:48 Spitfiree wrote: Both will make so much money out of this fight I wouldn't be surprised to go either way cuz of no fucks given You are so narrow-minded it is disgusting. They have enough money to live like you dream to for the rest of their lives. Their fighting record and a defining match in their careers means more than money. Its not like they are struggling living on the dole. Sit down little man. Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world - Arthur Schopenhauer Hopefully the fight lives up to the hype!!

Its funny that you are quoting such a great philosopher to defend such a petty cause. The irony in your post is quite deep, sadly you ll probably need years to realize it

is anyone betting anything big on this fight? i am skeptical on betting at all, but I don't know how I cannot.

On April 28 2015 23:58 casinocasino wrote: is anyone betting anything big on this fight? i am skeptical on betting at all, but I don't know how I cannot.

Everyone and their momma is betting o11.5 rounds, or Fight Goes the Distance. I won't be betting this fight, just cuz the Over is so high, and I don't feel safe betting any line. However, if I were to bet it, I'd focus on the Majority Decision, Split Decision, and Draw props.

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$50 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/r/filthy-f...oxing-mayweatherpacquiao-game/693853/

On April 28 2015 23:58 casinocasino wrote: is anyone betting anything big on this fight? i am skeptical on betting at all, but I don't know how I cannot.

Yes. big on mayweather