2015 NBA Playoffs Thread - Page 9

On May 12 2015 12:58 TalentedTom wrote: Show nested quote + On May 12 2015 07:17 Raid wrote: This Clippers -2 1/2 line seems like a complete setup. Wonder if Houston's going to stick with the hack-a-Jordan in Game 5--I know all the analysts were saying it backfired but didn't he miss the majority of his free throws? Hes shooting 42% free throws in playoffs (42% career), which is the equivalent of 84 points per 100 posession (Philledelphia which ranks 30th and averages 93/100, lakers are 24th and average 101/100, just to add perspective (Off Def Rating).) Only reason it didnt work is because Houston could not score at a rate higher then this with the lineup they had on the floor. Clearly a very +EV strategy, in fact if you have an unlimited anoumt of fouls to give, you would foul him 100% of the time all game. Also another note, when Houston does this strategy, James harden should play all 48 min, since while jordan is shooting free throws, he dosnt have to waste energy on defence, its basically the equivalent of a timeout break every other posession. If Golden state does this, they would prob crush the clips

Great breakdown, but the one thing I would say you are leaving out is that Houston's PP 100 possessions is also being reduced pretty drastically when they completely take away the transition game and let the Clippers, especially with D-Jordan, set-up their half-court defense. Nonetheless, especially on the road, it's clearly a good strategy.

On May 12 2015 17:07 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 12 2015 12:58 TalentedTom wrote:   On May 12 2015 07:17 Raid wrote: This Clippers -2 1/2 line seems like a complete setup. Wonder if Houston's going to stick with the hack-a-Jordan in Game 5--I know all the analysts were saying it backfired but didn't he miss the majority of his free throws? Hes shooting 42% free throws in playoffs (42% career), which is the equivalent of 84 points per 100 posession (Philledelphia which ranks 30th and averages 93/100, lakers are 24th and average 101/100, just to add perspective (Off Def Rating).) Only reason it didnt work is because Houston could not score at a rate higher then this with the lineup they had on the floor. Clearly a very +EV strategy, in fact if you have an unlimited anoumt of fouls to give, you would foul him 100% of the time all game. Also another note, when Houston does this strategy, James harden should play all 48 min, since while jordan is shooting free throws, he dosnt have to waste energy on defence, its basically the equivalent of a timeout break every other posession. If Golden state does this, they would prob crush the clips Great breakdown, but the one thing I would say you are leaving out is that Houston's PP 100 possessions is also being reduced pretty drastically when they completely take away the transition game and let the Clippers, especially with D-Jordan, set-up their half-court defense. Nonetheless, especially on the road, it's clearly a good strategy.

I've also seen the argument being made that by fouling Jordan so much so early, you are putting the Clippers into the bonus far too quickly, and they have 3 of the top 5 FT shooters in the NBA on their team.

Gibson has to have the record for most missed dunks

Well that was an interesting little entanglement between Delivedova and Gibson. Think they got that wrong, shoulda just been a double tech.

^^ Yes, no transition points, you could also argue that since the clipper players do nothing on offence, they will have more energy for defence. I still don't see a way that they score at a lower rate then what deandre shoots, its just beyond terrible

On May 13 2015 01:07 soberstone wrote: Well that was an interesting little entanglement between Delivedova and Gibson. Think they got that wrong, shoulda just been a double tech.

yeah flagrant 2 was kind of ridiculous imo

wow, the amount of 3's the bulls are hitting is getting ridic

Fail travel call -->> pass for a 3, game changing swing

On May 12 2015 17:07 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 12 2015 12:58 TalentedTom wrote:   On May 12 2015 07:17 Raid wrote: This Clippers -2 1/2 line seems like a complete setup. Wonder if Houston's going to stick with the hack-a-Jordan in Game 5--I know all the analysts were saying it backfired but didn't he miss the majority of his free throws? Hes shooting 42% free throws in playoffs (42% career), which is the equivalent of 84 points per 100 posession (Philledelphia which ranks 30th and averages 93/100, lakers are 24th and average 101/100, just to add perspective (Off Def Rating).) Only reason it didnt work is because Houston could not score at a rate higher then this with the lineup they had on the floor. Clearly a very +EV strategy, in fact if you have an unlimited anoumt of fouls to give, you would foul him 100% of the time all game. Also another note, when Houston does this strategy, James harden should play all 48 min, since while jordan is shooting free throws, he dosnt have to waste energy on defence, its basically the equivalent of a timeout break every other posession. If Golden state does this, they would prob crush the clips Great breakdown, but the one thing I would say you are leaving out is that Houston's PP 100 possessions is also being reduced pretty drastically when they completely take away the transition game and let the Clippers, especially with D-Jordan, set-up their half-court defense. Nonetheless, especially on the road, it's clearly a good strategy.

there is a lot more that goes into the hack strategy than this though.

some cons to consider:
-as you already said, there are no fast break points, which the rockets excel at.
-the clippers starting 5 has a large edge on the rockets starting 5, this extends the game giving them more rest and allows them to play more minutes
-can only run it once there are 5 fouls in a quarter. if you start doing it in the first quarter we are talking about maybe 15 fouls a quarter for your team. you want to play 7-8 guys for the majority of your minutes, but that is only <48 fouls available for those guys without fouling out. so you can't have your own starters fouling nonstop or they will be in horrendous foul trouble all game, and may foul out early and give you a big disadvantage at the end, so you must rotate in some crappy bench players like papanikolau to give you some fouls, which hurts your own offense

there are also some hidden pros as well:
-offensive rebounding rates are worse on free throws than on normal possessions.
-can force a subpar player like big baby into the game at critical moments

that said, if I were the rockets I would be running lots of hack a DJ, particularly late in games when I was sure my starters were not in foul trouble. they clearly cannot stop the clippers offense, it is probably the better strategy. Haralabos was tweeting during the Spurs series that he thought the Spurs defense was good enough to stop their offense and that it was a mistake there. Best to take it on case by case and not just mindlessly base it off PPP

So 6:30 minutes through this game, Rockets facing elimination, Clippers come out cold as hell, and yet the Rockets are up by 2 points. Should be up 10 easy. Such garbage. Fucking hate being a Rockets fan right now. Luckily I'm actually going to play basketball tonight so I won't see the end of this game which will probably be a painful choke-job by the Rockets or them being down by like 10 and just quitting, which is even worse.

Oh man.... the Craig Sager thing is really sad.... he's clearly on his way out.... just being real. Sucks.

Sager bit bummed me out too =[

refs are doing a gr8 job at keeping deandre out of the game

WoW. Just got back to see that we smashed them. Good stuff. And Harden messed around and had a t-dub? Dayam

That 8 points is looking pretty good if Wall plays tonight.

On May 13 2015 17:29 Raid wrote: That 8 points is looking pretty good if Wall plays tonight.

Good call that was a steal

Man. Regardless of that outcome. Paul Pierce does what they pay the man to do.

what a sick first quarter GSW v Memphis
Curry beast mode

On May 14 2015 03:08 TalentedTom wrote: what a sick first quarter GSW v Memphis Curry beast mode

i know I'm a big Grizzlies homer but the officiating in that game was atrociously one sided

It's hard enough to beat a team as great as the Warriors but they were drawing dead based on how the game was called

On May 12 2015 19:28 Raid wrote: Show nested quote + On May 12 2015 17:07 soberstone wrote:   On May 12 2015 12:58 TalentedTom wrote:   On May 12 2015 07:17 Raid wrote: This Clippers -2 1/2 line seems like a complete setup. Wonder if Houston's going to stick with the hack-a-Jordan in Game 5--I know all the analysts were saying it backfired but didn't he miss the majority of his free throws? Hes shooting 42% free throws in playoffs (42% career), which is the equivalent of 84 points per 100 posession (Philledelphia which ranks 30th and averages 93/100, lakers are 24th and average 101/100, just to add perspective (Off Def Rating).) Only reason it didnt work is because Houston could not score at a rate higher then this with the lineup they had on the floor. Clearly a very +EV strategy, in fact if you have an unlimited anoumt of fouls to give, you would foul him 100% of the time all game. Also another note, when Houston does this strategy, James harden should play all 48 min, since while jordan is shooting free throws, he dosnt have to waste energy on defence, its basically the equivalent of a timeout break every other posession. If Golden state does this, they would prob crush the clips Great breakdown, but the one thing I would say you are leaving out is that Houston's PP 100 possessions is also being reduced pretty drastically when they completely take away the transition game and let the Clippers, especially with D-Jordan, set-up their half-court defense. Nonetheless, especially on the road, it's clearly a good strategy. I've also seen the argument being made that by fouling Jordan so much so early, you are putting the Clippers into the bonus far too quickly, and they have 3 of the top 5 FT shooters in the NBA on their team.

I don't think this matters as much because often they will let the team fall into bonus naturally (or close) before going hack. And even if they don't, once they get into the bonus they start snap fouling so it is almost always landing on deandre no matter how well the other players shoot. then towards 2 mins everyone is in bonus anyways.

Hack a deandre is massively +ev for the other team and I expect rule changes next season.

Saying hack a deandre backfired in game 5 is the most results oriented thinking ever. Guy was 10/28 at the line at one point lol, how many points per possession under league average (much less clips avg) is that?