UFC 185: Pettis vs. dos Anjos

Date: Saturday, March 14th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 17:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 21:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (PPV)

Anthony Pettis (18-2) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (23-7) (Lightweight Championship)
Carla Esparza (10-2) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (8-0) (Women's Strawweight Championship)
Johny Hendricks (16-3) vs. Matt Brown (19-12) (Welterweight)
Roy Nelson (20-10) vs. Alistair Overeem (38-14) (Heavyweight)
Chris Cariaso (17-6) vs. Henry Cejudo (7-0) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (FX)

Ross Pearson (16-8) vs. Sam Stout (20-10-1) (Lightweight)
Elias Theodorou (10-0) vs. Roger Narvaez (7-1) (Middleweight)
Daron Cruickshank (16-5) vs. Beneil Dariush (9-1) (Lightweight)
Jared Rosholt (11-2) vs. Josh Copeland (9-1) (Heavyweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Sergio Pettis (12-1) vs. Ryan Benoit (7-3) (Flyweight)
Jake Lindsey (9-2) vs. Joseph Duffy (12-1) (Lightweight)
Larissa Pacheco (10-1) vs. Germaine de Randamie (4-3) (Women's Bantamweight)

Other

- Vagner Rocha was expected to face promotional newcomer Joseph Duffy at the event. However, Rocha pulled out of the bout in early February and was replaced by Jake Lindsey.

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First impression of the match-ups:

- Pettis > RDA
- Esparza > JJ
- Hendricks > Brown
- Overeem > Nelson
- Cejudo > Cariaso
- Pearson > Stout
- Theodorou > Narvaez
- Dariush > Cruickshank
- Rosholt > Copeland
- Pettis > Benoit
- Duffy > Lindsey
- Randamie > Pacheco

Great card. Thanks as usual for making thread.

Pettis > RDA - Finishes it somewhere. Absolutely most lethal P4P finisher in the game vs someone who is just B+ to A- at everything, which is meant as a compliment to RDA who I have underestimated before
Esparza vs JJ - Pickem fight in my mind, I'll take the odds.
Hendricks > Brown - 3 round fight, in much better shape, arguably beat GSP and Lawler II, probably healthy as he's been in a long time - Hendricks finds the body and very well might be the first guy to finish Brown in forever.
Overeem > Nelson - Wouldn't touch it but gotta favor Reem and expect he'll either be all the way in or all the way out for most of the time, but could def get KO'd
Cejudo > Cariaso - As long as he cuts weight professionally and has stayed in shape, Cejudo however he wants, Rogan and Goldie are gonna already be talking title shot the minute this fight is over cuz of shallowness of division / Cejudo's Olympic resume
Pearson > Stout - KO likely
Theodorou > Narvaez
Cruikshank > Dariush - Watched all Dariushes fights again on fight pass and I think he's gonna underachieve what people think of him. Cruikshank is the classier striker and I expect him to be able to keep it at range enough to win a decision if he can't find the KO.
Rosholt > Copeland
Petts > Benoit
Duffy > Lindsey
Pacheco > Randemie

Pettis inside the distance, Overeem by decision, Nelson by KO and maybe Matt brown (3.80 right now, he opened with 2.90)

I was not on the Pettis hype train until the last fight with Melendez,but what i saw was impressive.He should win inside the distance.Ko i think.
Carla will be a champion for a long time and as i said in the other thread i already bet on her.In my mind it is a lock. Great odds also.Also the odds for U4,5 rounds is 2,1 which is also a great bet i think.
I can not see Brown winning at all.Hendricks is too strong and for 3 rounds he will not have any problems.If he needs he can wrestle Brown for 3 rounds and win a decicion.
I don't like Overeem and will be rooting to get knocked out.And i think it is very possible.He will wave overhand rights and even if only 1 clips Overeem he is going to sleep.
Cariaso was manhandled by DJ ,but DJ is by far the best 125 pound guy.So for him to be such a huge underdog against Cejudo is crazy.Cehudo the biggest favourite on the card?Really?!
I think Ross Pearson will win most likely a decision.
Theodoru by decision also.
Dariush is the dog here ,but i think he should be the favourite.I give him the slight edge over Cruikshank.I think the edge will be Dariush's toughness and he will win.
My suggestion-Bet your house on Carla
If you like betting on underdogs go for Dariush and Cariaso.

On March 09 2015 13:59 gryzzlybearr wrote: I was not on the Pettis hype train until the last fight with Melendez,but what i saw was impressive.He should win inside the distance.Ko i think. Carla will be a champion for a long time and as i said in the other thread i already bet on her.In my mind it is a lock. Great odds also.Also the odds for U4,5 rounds is 2,1 which is also a great bet i think. I can not see Brown winning at all.Hendricks is too strong and for 3 rounds he will not have any problems.If he needs he can wrestle Brown for 3 rounds and win a decicion. I don't like Overeem and will be rooting to get knocked out.And i think it is very possible.He will wave overhand rights and even if only 1 clips Overeem he is going to sleep. Cariaso was manhandled by DJ ,but DJ is by far the best 125 pound guy.So for him to be such a huge underdog against Cejudo is crazy.Cehudo the biggest favourite on the card?Really?! I think Ross Pearson will win most likely a decision. Theodoru by decision also. Dariush is the dog here ,but i think he should be the favourite.I give him the slight edge over Cruikshank.I think the edge will be Dariush's toughness and he will win. My suggestion-Bet your house on Carla If you like betting on underdogs go for Dariush and Cariaso.

Nice advices, I know betting on Matt Brown here may be a bad idea, but I always have faith on him so I dont know... still thinking. I agree Overeem is going to get KOed if Nelson touched him only once, but if he fights like he did against Mir he should win a decision. Thats why I am betting on Nelson by KO (+220) and Overeem by Decision (+300).

I was thinking also betting on Cariaso but I dont know, I want to see how Cejudo evolves. I decided not betting at least I am completely sure that in my opinion the bet is Ev+, thats why I dont know if I will bet on Brown also.

I like the Esparza odds, I dont know very much about that division but seems like a good bet to make.

Overeem is -205 I want to bet my bankroll. Cosmo, thoughts? p.s. Overeem is the reason why I was up $1,000 instead of $6,000 last year. Ridiculous swing for my bankroll.

Does anyone have any input on Khabib -230 vs Cerrone, and Cormier -600 vs Bader?

I put in the max ($375) on MacDonald vs Lawler at -150. Still have Rockhold vs Machida at -140 and Also vs McGregor standing open at -130.

No love for RDA? I think it is a good bet at this odds.

Carla is at -145 at some places. I like JJ but I think Esparza beats her 9 out of 10 times.

Sick card btw.

On March 09 2015 15:04 Nazgul wrote: Overeem is -205 I want to bet my bankroll.

I like the odds as well. Overeem under Greg Jackson should be winning this fight easy.

Can't get myself to bet big here though. The Reem is a bust and Roy Nelson can take a ton of punishment and needs just one right hand to win this fight.

On March 09 2015 15:23 northsails wrote: No love for RDA? I think it is a good bet at this odds. Carla is at -145 at some places. I like JJ but I think Esparza beats her 9 out of 10 times. Sick card btw.

I have so much love for RDA. I can't say the thought never crossed my mind. I'm scared of Pettis though.

I didn't follow that female TUF season at all (nor their matches after) so I barely know these ladies.

I'm really looking forward to this card.

Have bets on RDA ML [Just like the odds, I think he can win]
Hendricks ML [Don't think he can lose]

With Overreem vs Nelson its about waiting for weigh-ins. Then take a close look at them, and make a decision. I'm going to take Overreem in every case unless he looks bad and Nelson looks good.

$500 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/3940...85-pettis-vs-dos-anjos-T-free/483800/

On March 09 2015 15:23 northsails wrote: No love for RDA? I think it is a good bet at this odds. Carla is at -145 at some places. I like JJ but I think Esparza beats her 9 out of 10 times. Sick card btw.

He's definitely the best fighter Pettis has ever faced and he's got a better chance than most forum posters are giving him. He's got pretty good wrestling so if he can mix up wrestling and striking a ton he can give Pettis a really tough fight. That said Pettis is just amazing. Finishing Bendo, Melendez, and Cerrone is just fucking insane.

On March 09 2015 15:04 Nazgul wrote: Overeem is -205 I want to bet my bankroll. Cosmo, thoughts? p.s. Overeem is the reason why I was up $1,000 instead of $6,000 last year. Ridiculous swing for my bankroll. Does anyone have any input on Khabib -230 vs Cerrone, and Cormier -600 vs Bader? I put in the max ($375) on MacDonald vs Lawler at -150. Still have Rockhold vs Machida at -140 and Also vs McGregor standing open at -130.

Reem is just super high varianced because of his chin. Coupled with Roys crazy right hand.

I feel like since that's all Reem has to avoid, he will probably game plan around it and just take Roy down and smash him on the ground. Roy is tough as heck though so Reem might need to avoid the right hand for 3 rounds which is pretty tricky.

Kinda surprised you are betting on Rockhold at -140, though I do agree with it. Most people seem to think it's nuts Rockhold is the favorite. I think his volume of kicks will lead to him winning a decision vs the super inactive Machida.

On March 09 2015 19:02 Minsk wrote: With Overreem vs Nelson its about waiting for weigh-ins. Then take a close look at them, and make a decision. I'm going to take Overreem in every case unless he looks bad and Nelson looks good.

Overeem has never looked bad on the UFC scale, and Nelson has never looked good.

Congrats to myself. Finally figured this BS out. Best HL reel in the game and this is pre-Melendez submission.

On March 09 2015 20:06 PuertoRican wrote: Overeem has never looked bad on the UFC scale, and Nelson has never looked good.

Well, he has to look good for me to take him. Hes a degenerate that doesn't take good care of himself, but you can see in those situations if they've snapped out of it or not.

He looked the worst hes looked last 2 fights and has been pretty terrible, hes either going to be there for the check or in Rocky mode. I'm honestly a little scared for him even in Rocky mode, even though its a good matchup, might not take him, but definitely taking Overreem otherwise.

I'm worried about RDA losing in a leveling way, but the more I think about it the better I feel about it. He puts on a high pace that hopefully wont give Pettis enough room to breathe to level him, and was talking correctly in an interview.

Pettis weakness is an RDA style actually. Pettis is great on offense, and fine on defense when he feels comfortable. But against constant pressure that wont let him get a counter setup because of speed and spontaneousness, thats what will give him trouble. I thought Melendez would do it and took him at 2.75, but he turned out too slow and preditable, and I underestimated Pettis, didn't realize he was a monster, it was a bad bet. But now I get RDA at 4.45.

single pot betting on Joana here. Not betting the others till I see the weigh ins.

Surprised at the people so adamantly saying Esparza is such a lock. Esparza is good yeah but I'm of the opinion that she got too much credit for the Namajunas win who is talented yeah but really was so very green still and fought like it. Throw up their fight on youtube. Namajunas fought with a lot of nervous energy to start then visually broke down and looked like she was about to burst into tears in her corner on the stool at the end of round 2 even though she hadn't been actually physically hurt much in the fight up to that point. Just from knowing she's getting beaten. Her unnecessarily risky striking moves also led to easier takedowns for Esparza. Maybe I'm just greatly underestimating what Esparza does but JJ is going to keep coming with a mean streak, has really fluid combinations on the feet, and her takedown defense technique actually looked fine

Overeem looked for the very first chance to take Struve down in his last fight. No way he tests his glass jaw vs Roy standing around for any decent amount of time

Esparza looked sloppy vs strikers, najamunas couldn't defend take downs after the 1st round she looked out of gas, Joanna tho defends take downs well, Esparza was getting hit so much in her championship fight in the first round, pretty sure Joanna will keep striking her + height advantage. GG

Nobody gives Brown a chance at +290? : (

Waiting for Cosmo to say that he's going all in on Nelson...

On March 09 2015 15:34 northsails wrote: Show nested quote + On March 09 2015 15:04 Nazgul wrote: Overeem is -205 I want to bet my bankroll. I like the odds as well. Overeem under Greg Jackson should be winning this fight easy. Can't get myself to bet big here though. The Reem is a bust and Roy Nelson can take a ton of punishment and needs just one right hand to win this fight.

Thats what many of us wanted to believe but the Reem under Jackson is the worst Reem we have ever seen, he is temptative, small, less dangerous but still easy to hit with a glass chin.


This is a terrible matchup for the new overeem maybe old big overeem could have pushed him against the cage and bully Nelson there, but he probably wont be able to do that as effectivly now and he seems to dance more on the outside and he will eventually eat a big punch

Overeem should be able to ragdoll Roy to the floor without much trouble and fuck him up on the ground, like he did with struve. His top game is actually really good. He was able takedown Mir and Werdum and they never even came close to threatening him, and both of their guards are vastly superior to Nelsons.

Nelson can only finish the fight in the first round, after that he ll gas out as usual

Nelson wins by decison is -4125
lol

On March 10 2015 21:58 Floofy wrote: Nelson wins by decison is -4125 lol

wtf, that is worth a bet

On March 10 2015 12:34 Spitfiree wrote: Nelson can only finish the fight in the first round, after that he ll gas out as usual

its overeem, he can be knocked out any second

On March 10 2015 23:24 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On March 10 2015 21:58 Floofy wrote: Nelson wins by decison is -4125 lol wtf, that is worth a bet

well the reserve is only +1650

On March 10 2015 06:01 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On March 09 2015 15:34 northsails wrote:   On March 09 2015 15:04 Nazgul wrote: Overeem is -205 I want to bet my bankroll. I like the odds as well. Overeem under Greg Jackson should be winning this fight easy. Can't get myself to bet big here though. The Reem is a bust and Roy Nelson can take a ton of punishment and needs just one right hand to win this fight. Thats what many of us wanted to believe but the Reem under Jackson is the worst Reem we have ever seen, he is temptative, small, less dangerous but still easy to hit with a glass chin. This is a terrible matchup for the new overeem maybe old big overeem could have pushed him against the cage and bully Nelson there, but he probably wont be able to do that as effectivly now and he seems to dance more on the outside and he will eventually eat a big punch

I believe that was the strategy just for his fight with Ben Rothwell. They probably didn't want to stand in front or grapple with Rothwell due to his size and devised a plan to outpoint him from outside. Against Struve He went for a takedown with the first opportunity. So I think Jackson is going to put a good gameplan vs Nelson. Push him to the cage and clinch him or take him down. The Reem should destroy him there.

You never know with Overeem though. He has lost too many fights where He should of destroyed his opponents.

Bookmaker just released several future bets, Aldo -130 being one of them.

I'm not gonna place a bet on Aldo just yet, since the fight is in July.

nvm

Well considering Roy Nelson wrecked Chieck Kongo and Overeem = Chieck Kongo, I love Roy Nelson

O_O

I also feel like RDA deserves a small bet at +360. Pettis wrestling is weak (getting better, but still weak compared to the division) and losing rounds to takedowns is super brutal.

Think Carla Esparza is a brutally bad match-up for JJ. Prolly going to bet on her.

On March 10 2015 03:47 jvilla777 wrote: Esparza looked sloppy vs strikers, najamunas couldn't defend take downs after the 1st round she looked out of gas, Joanna tho defends take downs well, Esparza was getting hit so much in her championship fight in the first round, pretty sure Joanna will keep striking her + height advantage. GG

This pretty much sums up my thought, especially the excellent point that Rose fought emotional and gassed - this is CLEAR upon a re-watch.

JJ also benefits from the fact that while she is a Muai Thai champion, her hands are what she loves to use most. It's not a big deal for her, unlike Rose, to have to worry about not telegraphing exotic and low percentage kicks like Rose loves to use. That's just not her game - although she does like to throw the occasional teep to the grill which she'll probably not do unless she's really getting the better of the fight and feels confident it won't end up with her on her back.

If people think Esparza is just gonna blast double her over and over like she did Rose - they are just wrong and haven't watched the tape on JJ's footwork and cardio. She may land a TD like that here or there, but nothing consistent. If she wants the fight on the ground at all costs, she's gonna have to get JJ against the fence - which I think will be very difficult for her as her striking is just so far below JJ's - and do a better job of chain wrestling than Lima and Gaudela did, and that's just a recipe to gas yourself out.

The more I think about this fight, the more I feel great about JJ's chances.

Gaudela v JJ was probably the real 1 v 2 in the world (I'm not impressed with Jessica Aguilar these days) and I'd bet they end up fighting again by the end of 2016, especially with the left-over heat from the last fight where Gaudela Paul Daily'd her after the bell.

I already made 2 hail mary parlays earlier in the week:

UFC 185 3/6/2015 3/15/2015 Pettis + Jedrzejczyk + Hendricks + Cejudo + Pearson + Theodorou + Cruickshank + Rosholt + Duffey + Pacheco PL $10.00 +3,360

UFC 185 3/6/2015 3/15/2015 Jedrzejczyk + Hendricks + Cejudo + Pearson + Cruickshank + Rosholt PL $10.00 +984

On March 10 2015 03:59 alejandicto wrote: Nobody gives Brown a chance at +290? : (

He's live but it's a 3 round fight and Johnny is in shape and would not take this fight (high risk, low reward and essentially turned down a trilogy) at anything but 100 %

No value on Brown.

I can't wait for "The Reem ver. 5.0" when it's out

On March 11 2015 00:20 JonnyCosMo wrote: I also feel like RDA deserves a small bet at +360. Pettis wrestling is weak (getting better, but still weak compared to the division) and losing rounds to takedowns is super brutal.

What? No.
The second RDA mispositions himself he s gonna get wrecked on the ground, even if he s on top. Think people underestimate how intelligent & fast of a fighter Pettis is. His takedown defense isn't the best, but he s one of the guys you dont want to be lying on the ground with, cause he ll find an opening and punish you

good article from Jack Slack on RDA striking :
http://fightland.vice.com/blog/the-striking-rebirth-of-rafael-dos-anjos

Pettis submiting Benson and Gilbert was incredible.Both guys are super tough and super solid on the map.So the only thing i am wondering is can RDA catch Pettis with a good punch?Because i have not seen anybody hit him hard.How is his chin?The only thing i can not understand for Pettis.But RDA winning looks like a solid NO.At the begining i was wondering if there is a value on RDA,but now i start to ask myself the oposite thing.Is there value in Pettis?And maybe the answe is yes at 1.239. I just put a small bets on Dariush to win and Carla-JJ under 4,5 .

If anyone is interested Pacquaio vs Mayweather Press conference

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/23...ch-live-stream-of-la-press-conference

On March 11 2015 08:22 Spitfiree wrote: Show nested quote + On March 11 2015 00:20 JonnyCosMo wrote: I also feel like RDA deserves a small bet at +360. Pettis wrestling is weak (getting better, but still weak compared to the division) and losing rounds to takedowns is super brutal. What? No. The second RDA mispositions himself he s gonna get wrecked on the ground, even if he s on top. Think people underestimate how intelligent & fast of a fighter Pettis is. His takedown defense isn't the best, but he s one of the guys you dont want to be lying on the ground with, cause he ll find an opening and punish you

I mean is Pettis really a completely different fighter from when he lost to Clay Guida, or had a meh split decision victory over Jermey Stephens? It really wasnt that long ago you guys. Honestly, i think he's just sun running

On March 12 2015 04:19 JonnyCosMo wrote: Show nested quote + On March 11 2015 08:22 Spitfiree wrote:   On March 11 2015 00:20 JonnyCosMo wrote: I also feel like RDA deserves a small bet at +360. Pettis wrestling is weak (getting better, but still weak compared to the division) and losing rounds to takedowns is super brutal. What? No. The second RDA mispositions himself he s gonna get wrecked on the ground, even if he s on top. Think people underestimate how intelligent & fast of a fighter Pettis is. His takedown defense isn't the best, but he s one of the guys you dont want to be lying on the ground with, cause he ll find an opening and punish you I mean is Pettis really a completely different fighter from when he lost to Clay Guida, or had a meh split decision victory over Jermey Stephens? It really wasnt that long ago you guys. Honestly, i think he's just sun running

Bro... Pettis is half Puerto Rican... Don't sleep on the kid.

He's gonna send RDA back to the favela with the rest of those bums.

On March 12 2015 04:48 PuertoRican wrote: Bro... Pettis is half Puerto Rican... Don't sleep on the kid. He's gonna send RDA back to the favela with the rest of those bums.

lol

I just saw the media day staredowns, I'm gonna put another single OVERBET on Joanna. She seems more hungrier and her demeanor just shows she wants it more than Carla.

On March 12 2015 22:20 jvilla777 wrote: I just saw the media day staredowns, I'm gonna put another single OVERBET on Joanna. She seems more hungrier and her demeanor just shows she wants it more than Carla.

One of us between you and me will lose badly

who will win? the one who bets based on who has the "hungrier" demeanor or the guy clueless about MMA....

clash of the betting titans

On March 13 2015 07:28 Baalim wrote: who will win? the one who bets based on who has the "hungrier" demeanor or the guy clueless about MMA.... clash of the betting titans

On March 12 2015 04:19 JonnyCosMo wrote: Show nested quote + On March 11 2015 08:22 Spitfiree wrote:   On March 11 2015 00:20 JonnyCosMo wrote: I also feel like RDA deserves a small bet at +360. Pettis wrestling is weak (getting better, but still weak compared to the division) and losing rounds to takedowns is super brutal. What? No. The second RDA mispositions himself he s gonna get wrecked on the ground, even if he s on top. Think people underestimate how intelligent & fast of a fighter Pettis is. His takedown defense isn't the best, but he s one of the guys you dont want to be lying on the ground with, cause he ll find an opening and punish you I mean is Pettis really a completely different fighter from when he lost to Clay Guida, or had a meh split decision victory over Jermey Stephens? It really wasnt that long ago you guys. Honestly, i think he's just sun running

I wasn't completely convinced even after he submitted Henderson, but I'm quite sure he s a on a whole new level after the Melendez fight.
Well you are probably right though, he deserves a small bet considering he has a pretty tough BJJ game & we ll see about the striking vs Pettis.
The problem with Pettis is you can't really prepare to fight vs him as his style is so unorthodox.

Current odds:

Esparza -143
Overeem -144
Dariush -122

Wow, why is Frankie Edgar so favored over Urijah Faber? I think Urijah can win.

You guys know if there are there any promotions or rewards programs, anything I should know about before signing up at 5dimes or Bookmaker? Anyone know a good sportsbetting exchange?

that polish girl is crazy for sure

I love this polish girl.

Copeland ML
Cariasco ML
RDA ML
Polish Girl ML
Hendricks ML

Nelson actually looked good, not fucking with that one. I haven't actually seen a lot of these fighters very much. I think Cruikshank is pretty good but don't know his opponent.

I don't know Cariasco vs Cejudo well enough, but the odds seem generous. Cariasco has all 4 limbs, probably a penis too, maybe he will hit him in the face and win.

RDA is going to try and win, I might get some more of him.

cejudo looks huge comparing to cariaso

Just watched weigh-in. Cruikshank looked like he's in trouble. He's probably gonna kill my hail mary parlays by getting gassed and subbed. Hendrick's looked incredible. Cejudo also made a statement by getting all the way to 125. He also has an enormous head.

On March 14 2015 00:17 soberstone wrote: Just watched weigh-in. Cruikshank looked like he's in trouble. He's probably gonna kill my hail mary parlays by getting gassed and subbed. Hendrick's looked incredible. Cejudo also made a statement by getting all the way to 125. He also has an enormous head.

Cruickshank initially weighed in at 157.5 pounds. He attempted to cut the weight but only lost half a pound. So, the 157 pound Cruickshank will be fined 20% of his prize purse.

Just laid down $30.00 on Pettis by tko/ko/dq at +170. Probably gonna think about it a little more and than put more down. That line seems pretty obscenely good to me. Sure he might jump on a sub instead after he hurts RDA, but there's no question in my mind he's gonna finish him.

On March 14 2015 01:07 soberstone wrote: Just laid down $30.00 on Pettis by tko/ko/dq at +170. Probably gonna think about it a little more and than put more down. That line seems pretty obscenely good to me. Sure he might jump on a sub instead after he hurts RDA, but there's no question in my mind he's gonna finish him.

Betting on Bookmaker?

If so, they open up various lines via live betting before the fight starts. The live betting lines include: +3.5/-3.5 points (depending on the fight), Inside the Distance lines, KO/Submission/Decision lines for both fighters, lines for the Total, etc.

I have 2-3 people who I'm gonna bet 2 or more units on once the +3.5 points become available via live betting. I wish Bookmaker would step up their game and add similar props that 5dimes uses.

Matt Brown is 34 and took a lot of damage in that Lawler fight and more so - he's taken a ton of damage in his career and one advantage he has in all his fights is that he's so unbreakable.

We could see an end to that attribute if Hendricks does what I'm thinking he might whether it just be landing a fuckload of hard shots and especially punishing that vulnerable body or getting the 1-punch KO. I don't think he's gonna respect Brown's punching power much. Not when he just shook off the best Robbie had to offer.

On March 14 2015 01:16 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On March 14 2015 01:07 soberstone wrote: Just laid down $30.00 on Pettis by tko/ko/dq at +170. Probably gonna think about it a little more and than put more down. That line seems pretty obscenely good to me. Sure he might jump on a sub instead after he hurts RDA, but there's no question in my mind he's gonna finish him. Betting on Bookmaker? If so, they open up various lines via live betting before the fight starts. The live betting lines include: +3.5/-3.5 points (depending on the fight), Inside the Distance lines, KO/Submission/Decision lines for both fighters, lines for the Total, etc. I have 2-3 people who I'm gonna bet 2 or more units on once the +3.5 points become available via live betting. I wish Bookmaker would step up their game and add similar props that 5dimes uses.

Yah

I want to hedge with Dariush by sub but that's not available. Will probably be live betting that one.

This is the first time I feel comfortable betting Hendricks, seeing him shake uncontrollably in his previous fights was pretty lol.

Dos Anjos looked super scary during the face off. Still considering betting this.

betting Overeem+Joanna+Hendricks @4.33, Hail Mary on Overeem, Hopefully he fights the clinch game and don't stand and trade with Nelson otherwise GG.

Degen floofy is in the house

$1.00 $347.40 Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 3/14/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1059 Anjos points handicap +5½ +205* vs Pettis points handicap
Pending 3/14/15 11:30pm Props Fighting 1105 Esparza wins inside distance +249* vs Not Esparza inside distance
Pending 3/14/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1209 Hendricks wins inside distance +243* vs Not Hendricks inside distance
Pending 3/14/15 10:30pm Props Fighting 1333 Nelson wins by TKO/KO +175* vs Any other result
Pending 3/14/15 10:00pm Props Fighting 1409 Cejudo wins inside distance +247* vs Not Cejudo inside distance

Please hold!

Overeem Nelson is one of the few fights I'm not betting on. I won't even try to guess the values, I'll just enjoy the fights on its merits of an awesome 2015 Heavyweight paradox.

Holy shit Hendricks has put in some good work. He looked amazing. Rooting for Pettis and Hendricks aand Overeem tonight. I can't stand Roy "manboobs" Nelson. What a bum.
Also funny how the ring girls try real hard not to look at fighters getting undressed

bets on RDA, Esparza and Reem. GL tonight.

On March 14 2015 06:47 PuertoRican wrote:

LOL war JJ

$1.00 $26.37 Pending 2 Team Parlay
Pending 3/14/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1005 Anjos wins inside distance +698* vs Not Anjos inside distance
Pending 3/14/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1209 Hendricks wins inside distance +243* vs Not Hendricks inside distance

I like this one :D

$100 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/39455...n-ufc-185-pettis-vs-dos-anjos-T-free/

On March 14 2015 02:51 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On March 14 2015 01:16 PuertoRican wrote:   On March 14 2015 01:07 soberstone wrote: Just laid down $30.00 on Pettis by tko/ko/dq at +170. Probably gonna think about it a little more and than put more down. That line seems pretty obscenely good to me. Sure he might jump on a sub instead after he hurts RDA, but there's no question in my mind he's gonna finish him. Betting on Bookmaker? If so, they open up various lines via live betting before the fight starts. The live betting lines include: +3.5/-3.5 points (depending on the fight), Inside the Distance lines, KO/Submission/Decision lines for both fighters, lines for the Total, etc. I have 2-3 people who I'm gonna bet 2 or more units on once the +3.5 points become available via live betting. I wish Bookmaker would step up their game and add similar props that 5dimes uses. Yah I want to hedge with Dariush by sub but that's not available. Will probably be live betting that one.

Dariush/Cruickshank props are back up. Dariush sub is +295.

Overeem was -205 on the first page when Naz posted, any particular reason why hes -143 now?

On March 14 2015 20:56 nicksson wrote: Overeem was -205 on the first page when Naz posted, any particular reason why hes -143 now?

He was -250 for a while and suddenly massively dropped

On March 14 2015 20:56 nicksson wrote: Overeem was -205 on the first page when Naz posted, any particular reason why hes -143 now?

Overeem's line went to -140 or so before the weigh-in. He weighed in the lowest he's ever weighed in the UFC.

I was originally gonna bet Nelson at +180, but since his line got bet down so much, I just put a bet on Nelson by KO/TKO/DQ at +175.

My read on the fight:

A lot of bettors are thinking Overeem will take Nelson down and win via decision. I think otherwise.

Due to Nelson's height and assumption that Overeem will try to take him down in the first round, I assume Nelson will be ready for this and be able to counter it. Nelson has worked with Jeff Mayweather for over a year, and basic boxing footwork will be able to avoid the basic take down attempts that Overeem will try.

Regarding the cardio, both are known to have below average cardio. Nelson is known to finish opponents in the 1st round, or lose the fight. Nelson only has 1 finish outside of the first round in the past 7 years or so. However, while Nelson is less likely to get a finish outside of round 1 in most fights, Overeem's cardio and chin issues make Nelson's chances of finishing in rounds 2 and 3 more likely than in the past.

IMO, I see a finish in under 1.5 rounds, which is why I like u1.5 at -120. While Nelson has a sick chin, he won't be able to do shit if Overeem gets on top of him and starts using his underrated GnP. Nelson can also win. The only bet I don't like is Overeem's ML.

(I re-read this and noticed it sounds like I'm all over the place. Basically, I have no faith in betting Overeem's ML, so I'd rather take his opponent and/or bet the under. I hope Overeem wins, but I won't even bet his ML at evens because I get sad when he loses for some reason... I'd rather be sad and still have my money, instead of sad and broke.)

$100 free roll: https://www.kountermove.com/join/3945...n-ufc-185-pettis-vs-dos-anjos-T-free/

damn it you guys changed LP time @ regions so its CET for me now instead of ur american one gotta google time zones :/

On March 14 2015 22:20 Spitfiree wrote: damn it you guys changed LP time @ regions so its CET for me now instead of ur american one gotta google time zones :/

Yeah, just noticed that the other day...

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My bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

Fight Pass prelims: http://www.vipleague.se/boxing/287129...elims-ufc-185-live-stream-online.html

Great start to the card!

Germaine De Randamie +135 $20 for $27
Germaine De Randamie by KO/TKO/DQ +425 $5 for $21.25

There was so much value on Germaine de Randemine.

Rican:
Germaine De Randamie +135 $20 for $27
Germaine De Randamie by KO/TKO/DQ +425 $5 for $21.25

Nice bets. So clearly amazing value in retro. She looked great. I want to see her fight Marion Reneau

well... this wasnt great match making :D

On March 14 2015 22:50 MysticJoey wrote: well... this wasnt great match making :D

Is JJ getting a lot of hype in Poland for this fight?

i will quote this for you

"people who dont watch any mma started to post pictures and videos of her"

i dont live in poland so i cant tell you anything from live experience

Alrite.... that was awesome by Joe Duffy. Fantastic blend of violence.

On March 14 2015 22:57 MysticJoey wrote: i will quote this for you "people who dont watch any mma started to post pictures and videos of her" i dont live in poland so i cant tell you anything from live experience

word

Duffy/Lindsey u1.5 +148 cashes~

Joe Duffy is for real!

Faras Zahabi just told Joe Rogan he's going right down to 145. That division man... love it.

where did you post your bets , why cant i find them :D


hmm Rogan almost makes it sound like Rousey will be forced into a Cyborg fight, that will be the most tested fight ever imo :D

edit: oh they are spoilered I just saw, dont think Benoit can pull off a submission against Baby Pettis though

On March 14 2015 23:06 Spitfiree wrote: where did you post your bets , why cant i find them :D

Scroll up to post #82. I posted them there.

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Pettis/Benoit = hard one to guess. I think it will go over 2.5 rounds because Pettis won't threaten with many take downs (if any at all), but Benoit puts himself in bad situations, so I dunno.

It's a pass for me. Pettis should win, obviously.

My bet's (1 already dead)

+ Show Spoiler +

You know its a try-hard promotion of a fight when you have the words Roy Nelson & intelligent in the same sentence. Rogan should be sued for that and put in jail pff

Ryan Duffy is very very good. Like Ryan Duffy against Mendes would be an interesting fight.

Roy Nelson has a very high fighting IQ as compared to Overreem.
I think thats what he meant.

Baby Pettis isn't too great.

Benoit is getting outclassed. He'll be lucky to survive round 2.

Benoit wants to quit on the stool

Try watching the TUF season where Nelson is a coach, he s a complete retard, I have no idea how he survived so many years :/
Baby Pettis is doing pretty good actually, I only feel like him not going for the finish is uncool for the viewers, but its understandable considering he wants a win and doesn't want to open up for a fluke

edit: fuck this how do u exchange same punches at fuckin 57kg and get dropped

OMG! LOL

OMFG

OH SHIT. What a bitch move with that little butt kick but it was in the heat of the moment, he's gonna get too much shit for it lol!

lmao... Congrats to Benoit.

Dude Big Pettis is gonna unleash some fucking FURY on RDA. Sorry RDA. Lol

On March 14 2015 23:46 soberstone wrote: Dude Big Pettis is gonna unleash some fucking FURY on RDA. Sorry RDA. Lol

Thats a pretty double edged thing to do :D Might as well get what his brother just got. Well at least now he learned that if you dominate that hard you go for the finish so you don't lose a won fight

From wikipedia:
"Method: TKO (butt-kicking)" :D

Looks like I'll be riding the underdog train on some of these other fights. I knew we'd see some upsets, but I didn't expect Baby Pettis to get finished.

Anyway, I added an additional bet to Copeland's ML at +250. The rest of the fights "should" have live betting available, so we'll see how it goes. Copeland didn't get finished by his last opponent, whom I see as a better fighter than Rosholt. Rosholt isn't a big finisher anyway.

Rosholt has the hometown advantage, however, Copeland went to college and worked in Texas before starting MMA.

Livebet Copeland at +200 after rd 1

That didn't work out. Atleast the parlay stays alive.

Terrible performance from Copeland. Too afraid of being taken down.

Shouldn't have taken the fight if he was gonna fight scared.

Well, since bookmaker is completely lagging and I can't do shit, war Cruikshank.

Didn't even get to get my damn sub prop in. Such shit.

that was ambitious by Cruikshank

I was able to get: BENEIL DARIUSH BY SUBMISSION +295 $5 for $14.75

I kept trying to live bet Dariush in round 2, but the lines kept changing and making it difficult. I tried to bet $30 at -220, but then it switched to -330 or something and I only got an extra $22 on Dariush.

$61 profit altogether.

dam i liked that fight. that dariush or whatever his name looked impressive.

Wtf is wrong with the world, RDA is +450 now. Am I missing something? Did he break his leg over night or something?

Its not only that he was looking impressive, Its Cruickshank sucking at the ground, he got his chance to recover and re-position himself instead he gave it away and practically gave Beniush a free submission, you can't do that vs BJJ black belt

@ Cosmo thats stnd, people wait till the very end to bet plus his brother lost so they expect him to rape RDA now
RDA bet seems legit now

Narvaez by ko @ +777 - small flyer placed

Cejudo by Dec @ -175 - large bet placed

Added another bet to Narvaez. The guy is scrappy, has the height advantage, big reach advantage, and is the hometown fighter. Theodorou is the favorite, but he hasn't fought any legit competition, so I haven't seen anything out of him that I didn't already expect. I also don't see Theodorou finishing Narvaez.

Lol i just went to my betting site thinking about putting some bets down for the main card just for fun.
Then realized the bet for duffy vs lindsey is still open and put the max bet on duffy... i wonder what will happen lol
edit: obviously only 1,19 odds... but it should be free money

If Nelson is so smart why does he have manboobs ?

On March 15 2015 00:55 JonnyCosMo wrote: Wtf is wrong with the world, RDA is +450 now. Am I missing something? Did he break his leg over night or something?

They knocked out Anthony Pettis baby brother.

If anyone has partypoker/partybet the bet is the only one left for this card...

On March 15 2015 01:01 ERASA wrote: Lol i just went to my betting site thinking about putting some bets down for the main card just for fun. Then realized the bet for duffy vs lindsey is still open and put the max bet on duffy... i wonder what will happen lol edit: obviously only 1,19 odds... but it should be free money

Plenty of bettors have been kicked off of bookies for that. Your bet will most likely be voided, so it's not worth it.

I don't think Elias is bad but I do think Narvaez is under-rated and I like that he became full time pro in the last year or so and looks in great shape.

WTF as if its my fault... well ill keep you updated on the outcome

Round 1: Narvaez total strikes 18 (18 ss's). Theodorou total strikes 14 (12 ss's).

Or that.

Still not impressed with Theodorou. I'll bet big against him once he faces a decent fighter.

On March 15 2015 01:17 PuertoRican wrote: Still not impressed with Theodorou. I'll bet big against him once he faces a decent fighter.

Definitely. He seems like the perfect guy to know exactly when he's gonna be outclassed. I wouldn't be surprised if they give him another very winnable fight first though. Hes a TUF champ, he's fairly marketable as a douche, and he's not asking for bigger fights.

Every fight has ended ITD. Only one fight went over the total, but still ended ITD.

On March 15 2015 01:24 PuertoRican wrote: Every fight has ended ITD. Only one fight went over the total, but still ended ITD.

I have a feeling Sam Stouts chin is about to enter Gray Maynard territory.

That means the main card is destined for decisions. Besides RDA ofcourse... and Overeem'll prolly go to sleep too

Sam Stout's hair alone might get him KOd. That can't sit well with the MMA gods.

Wow, his chin is actually holding up. I'm shocked.

LOL. Knew it couldn't be long.

Sick punch by Pearson.

Glad I bet the under at the last minute. Was getting worried I'd lose both bets on u2.5 and Stout.

Pearson is just too 1-dimensional, but I'll put his pure pocket boxing against practically anyone's in MMA. He's super comfortable in there and throws like a pro.

Every fight I see with Pearson he forces a boxing match though. He has explosive short distance power, any pure striker without short distance power is vulnerable. I think Al Iaquinta pure boxing is superior.

Good thing Bookmaker isn't offering point spreads via live betting today. I would've lost the last 3 fights in a row.

Roy looks better than normal after the first round or am i wrong?

Ur wrong. He got his ass kicked. Roy can take a shot, no doubt. What a bum, rofl. Good job Overeem.

Roy had it

Great fight by Overreem though

Overeem looked amazing out there. I'm glad he finally got his shit together!

Although, he ruined my DraftKing teams!

On March 15 2015 03:11 cariadon wrote: Ur wrong. He got his ass kicked. Roy can take a shot, no doubt. What a bum, rofl. Good job Overeem.

I'm not saying he won any round, but sometimes i feel like he shuts down completely after the first round, this time he looked better.
overeem 30-27 easy.

overeem looked good. Guess him under Jackson not bad after all.

random question does anyone know when condit is due back? Miss that guy

On March 15 2015 03:12 TimDawg wrote: Roy had it Great fight by Overreem though

Had what? The fight was one way traffic.