UFC FN 40: Brown vs. Silva

Date: Saturday, May 10th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 17:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 21:00 / 7pm PST / 10pm PST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Matt Brown (18-11) vs. Erick Silva (16-4) (Welterweight)
Costas Philippou (12-4) vs. Lorenz Larkin (14-2) (Middleweight)
Erik Koch (14-3) vs. Daron Cruickshank (14-4) (Lightweight)
Neil Magny (9-3) vs. Tim Means (20-5-1) (Welterweight)
Soa Palelei (20-3) vs. Ruan Potts (8-1) (Heavyweight)
Chris Cariaso (16-5) vs. Louis Smolka (7-0) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2)

Ed Herman (21-10) vs. Rafael Natal (17-5-1) (Middleweight)
Kyoji Horiguchi (12-1) vs. Darrell Montague (13-3) (Flyweight)
Yan Cabral (11-0) vs. Zak Cummings (16-3) (Welterweight)
Eddie Wineland (21-9-1) vs. Johnny Eduardo (26-9) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Manvel Gamburyan (13-7) vs. Nik Lentz (24-6-2) (Featherweight)
Justin Salas (11-5) vs. Ben Wall (7-1-1) (Lightweight)
Anthony Lapsley (23-6) vs. Albert Tumenov (12-2) (Welterweight)

Other

- Alexander Yakovlev and Yan Cabral were originally scheduled to face each other in a welterweight bout. However, on April 9, Yakovlev was moved to the The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 Finale card as he replaced an injured Mike Pierce against Demian Maia. Cabral will now face Zak Cummings at the event.
- William Macario was expected to face Neil Magny at the event. However, Macario was removed from the bout for undisclosed reasons and replaced by returning veteran Tim Means.

First thoughts:

• Brown > Silva
• Larkin > Philippou
• Koch > Cruickshank
• Means > Magny
• Palelei vs. Potts (dunno yet)
• Smolka > Cariaso
• Natal > Herman
• Horiguchi > Montague
• Cabral vs. Cummings (dunno yet)
• Wineland > Eduardo
• Lentz > Gamburyan
• Salas vs. Wall (dunno yet)
• Lapsley vs. Tumenov (dunno yet, leaning Lapsley)

WTF Brown is at +190.

Got Brown at +305 straight up lol

Looked like insane value, got him in some parlays at +298.

I don't see how Silva is such a huge favourite.

Brown hasnt really fought anyone good. Erick Silva gave Jon Fitch a good fight.

With that said, i think I still like Brown at +190

how does brown not have a title shot yet

On May 07 2014 11:45 HaiVan wrote: Got Brown at +305 straight up lol Looked like insane value, got him in some parlays at +298. I don't see how Silva is such a huge favourite.

What book do you use to get Brown at +305. I think for a split second he was +220 on 5dimes.

On May 07 2014 13:28 SeanBam wrote: Show nested quote + On May 07 2014 11:45 HaiVan wrote: Got Brown at +305 straight up lol Looked like insane value, got him in some parlays at +298. I don't see how Silva is such a huge favourite. What book do you use to get Brown at +305. I think for a split second he was +220 on 5dimes.

Yeah i got him at 3.05 not +305. Didn't remember the odds correctly.

Still think its a pretty good bet at +205.

agree with everyone. silva rightly favored, but too much. should be -150. dont get it

Silva vs Brown - I dunno I went back and watched all of the Eric Silva and Matt Brown fights I can find. Silva could finish this one off quick and make it look like he should have been a huge favorite, but if the first round is close, I like Brown's cardio and relentless clinch game big time. I'm probably gonna stay away from this one and just enjoy what promises to be a very good scrap.

Larkin > Phillipou big time, don't care that hes a 2-1 fav.... Philipou is a boxer with the zero versatility, wrestling, or ground game. That matches up horribly in an MMA fight vs a diverse striker like Larkin who is athletic and has really powerful and crafty strikes / leg kicks.

Koch > Cruikshank pretty big, the line isn't great though but I'll put it in a parlay. Koch is just way better, Cuik just has some neat kicks that he'll never be able to land on Koch and on the groud Koch >>>> him.

Means vs Magney - I expect Means to most likely win but I'm gonna put a bet on Magney as long as he stays at +235 or w/e. The guy has improved quite well since TUF.

Palelei vs Potts - I have no clue.

Smolka vs Cariasso - Have to watch their fights again.

Natal > Herman - Good value here at almost a pick'em, Herman is so old and slow, probably the slowest P4P fighter in the UFC, I can't see him getting a finish at all and he could get subbed or tagged. If it's a decision it'll prolly be pretty close.

Horiguchi vs Montague - Don't expect a finish in this one after seeing the kind of punishment Darryl took vs Dodson. He's a tough SOB even though he did end up succumbing in the first rd. I kinda like Montague if he gets to +175.

Cabral > Cummings - Why the hell is Cummings still in the UFC?

Wineland > Eduardo

Lentz > Gamburian - Was pissed that Lentz is such a big favortie, no value there, but he's far better fighter than Manny in every way except 1-punch power stuff

Wall > Salas - I'm picking this solely because Salas is awful, and I always have good luck when picking against really bad fighters even if I know nothing about the other guy

Lapsley vs Tumonev - I'm torn but I'm gonna put a small bet on Lapsley because its a good style matchup for him and hes a fairly sizeable dog.

Well I get the thinking. Eric is a way better athlete and should be able to get Brown to the mat pretty easily and from there Brown has 9 sub losses. Almost all of them to people much worse than Silva at BJJ.

Question is, will that be Silva's game plan? All I've ever seen him do is brawl in the UFC and if he brawls with Brown he's certainly a underdog.

I think there's value on Eddie Wineland...hes just going to wreck that kid..

Have a small bet here on Brown at +220. Mainly because it is a main event (5 rounds) and Silva tends to slow down and Brown is tough to finish.

PR know any other streaming sites to watch fights on? fights4all doesn't work anymore

I dont know I dont like to bet against Silva he is just weird he seems to me like a true prodigy that just finds way to lose fights, I think one day he will get past that shit and destroy everyone

On May 09 2014 23:17 Baalim wrote: I dont know I dont like to bet against Silva he is just weird he seems to me like a true prodigy that just finds way to lose fights, I think one day he will get past that shit and destroy everyone

if he was 24 id agree, but hes about to turn 30. i think hes just the kind of fighter that absolutely destroys everyone who isnt in the same league as him, but if you are a top 20 guy you can give him fits, frustrate him and eventually win.

then again, fitch was still a top 5 guy and he was really crushing DHK before the flukey KO. i dunno, i just dont trust him past the first few minutes of a fight

Real talk, if Erick Silva wasn't extremely handsome, nobody would give a fuck about him. He had a good record against nobodies prior to joining the UFC, but since then, he hasn't lived up to the hype he's received by the bookies and fanboys.

Erick Silva has had 7 fights in the UFC thus far:

• In 2014, he beat Takenori Sato (who?) in 52 seconds via TKO. This was an extremely late replacement fight for Sato.
• In 2013, he got 1-punch KO`ed by Dong Hyun Kim.
• In 2013, he beat Jason High via submission in 1 minute and 11 seconds.
• In 2012, he lost to Jon Fitch via grapple fuck.
• In 2012, he beat Charlie Brenneman via submission in 4 minutes and 33 seconds.
• In 2012, he was beating Carlo Prater until he lost via DQ (punches to the back of the head).
• In 2011, he beat Luis Ramos (who?) in 40 seconds via KO. Ramos fought Matt Brown in his next fight and got TKO`ed by Brown.

° Erick has traded wins and losses since entering the UFC, and if we go by that method, he's due for a loss.
° He's never beaten a top 15 fighter, and possibly never beat a top 20 fighter, I just can't remember if Brenneman was ranked 16-20 when he lost to Erick.
° Jason High was a late replacement fill-in for John Hathaway, and was making his 2nd run in the UFC after Strikeforce folded.
° Luis Ramos was a late replacement fill-in for Mike Swick.
° Erick doesn't do well with aggressive fighters, as it it forces him to get hit a lot and he isn't able to employ his purely offensive style of fighting. He has a 46.5% striking defense ratio, which is terrible if you compare it to other fighters. Conversely, Matt Brown has a 58.2% striking defense ratio. If you ever seen a Matt Brown fight, you'll know that he isn't shy when getting hit and takes a decent amount of damage, which is okay for him cuz he has a great chin.
° After Erick beat Brenneman, Brenneman lost to Kyle Noke and then was released from the promotion. Brenneman recently got another chance, but he was finished in his 2 return fights. I'm pretty sure Brenneman isn't in the UFC anymore.
° Carlo Prater isn't in the UFC anymore.
° Luis Ramos isn't in the UFC anymore.
° All 4 UFC wins for Erick have come in the first round. 3 of them were about a minute or less in length.

My bets:

- Matt Brown (+190)
- Brown vs Silva under 1.5 rounds (+110). Both fighters had lot of finishes in round 1
- Wineland + Smolka (+100)

Just threw 2.5 units ($25) on Montague at +177 vs Horiguchi, this fight should be close to a pickem IMO, they are both very good but not top top tier prospects, and stylistically I don't see any big advantages on either side. Dodson made Montague look slow but Horiguchi ain't no Dodson.

I'm looking to win on some slight dogs that I think are valuable (Magney, Montague) and than parlay some favorites (Lentz, Smolka, Koch, Natal) and at that point if Brown is still a 2/1 dog, throw a decent sized bet on him. We'll see how it goes!

My bets thus far (pre-live betting):

Brown/Silva u1½ +100 $15
Rafael Natal -120 $20
Cummings/Cabral u2½ +145 $5
Palelei by submission +950 $3
Lapsely/Tumenov u2½ +101 $25 (free play/house money)

I plan to bet Means/Magny o2.5 and Koch/Cruick o2.5, but I'm waiting to see where the lines go before I make a bet. I have a couple hail mary parlays, but nothing worth posting.

On May 10 2014 01:01 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On May 09 2014 23:17 Baalim wrote: I dont know I dont like to bet against Silva he is just weird he seems to me like a true prodigy that just finds way to lose fights, I think one day he will get past that shit and destroy everyone if he was 24 id agree, but hes about to turn 30. i think hes just the kind of fighter that absolutely destroys everyone who isnt in the same league as him, but if you are a top 20 guy you can give him fits, frustrate him and eventually win. then again, fitch was still a top 5 guy and he was really crushing DHK before the flukey KO. i dunno, i just dont trust him past the first few minutes of a fight

One of us is remembering this fight wrong. I remember DHK winning the first round pretty clearly. Eric was doing much better in the 2nd but by no means crushing.

He displayed some of the most awful striking technique ever in that fight. Just winging hooks that he threw from his back pocket.

But yea Silva has a hard time pacing himself. He sprints in the first round so by round two he's pretty gassed. If he doesn't get the sub in the first two rounds his chances drop dramatically.

Fight Pass prelims: http://www.vipboxus.co/boxing/224218/...alas-vs-ben-w-live-stream-online.html

Good start. Tumenov with the KO earns me a quick $25 smackers.

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I added $5 on Salas/Wall u2½ +185. Don't really know anything about them though, aside from Wall getting owned by grapplers on one of the overseas TUF events.

vipbox down for anyone else?

I guess i should probably just get fightpass.

On May 10 2014 17:57 Stim_Abuser wrote: vipbox down for anyone else? I guess i should probably just get fightpass.

It works perfect for me: http://www.vipboxus.co/boxing/224218/...alas-vs-ben-w-live-stream-online.html

Justin Salas with the quick win to earn me $9 more smackers.

.co is down for me, had to use .eu version.

good start to the prelims.

On May 10 2014 17:29 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On May 10 2014 01:01 Daut wrote:   On May 09 2014 23:17 Baalim wrote: I dont know I dont like to bet against Silva he is just weird he seems to me like a true prodigy that just finds way to lose fights, I think one day he will get past that shit and destroy everyone if he was 24 id agree, but hes about to turn 30. i think hes just the kind of fighter that absolutely destroys everyone who isnt in the same league as him, but if you are a top 20 guy you can give him fits, frustrate him and eventually win. then again, fitch was still a top 5 guy and he was really crushing DHK before the flukey KO. i dunno, i just dont trust him past the first few minutes of a fight One of us is remembering this fight wrong. I remember DHK winning the first round pretty clearly. Eric was doing much better in the 2nd but by no means crushing. He displayed some of the most awful striking technique ever in that fight. Just winging hooks that he threw from his back pocket. But yea Silva has a hard time pacing himself. He sprints in the first round so by round two he's pretty gassed. If he doesn't get the sub in the first two rounds his chances drop dramatically.

oops yea, forgot he got some dominant positions round 1. just remember DHK being super rocked and almost finished. even worse

Nik Lentz should win easily by decision, especially since Manny is hard to finish. However, I'll keep the trend going and bet the Under in this fight. $5 on Lentz/Gamburyan u2½ +265.

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Since the lines keep going up, I added the following bets:

Zak Cummings +450 $5
Johnny Eduardo +605 $5

Wineland should beat Eduardo, but Wineland being -900 or more is insane. Cummings sucks afaik, but I'll take a shot here.

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FS2 stream: http://www.vipboxus.co/boxing/224219/...vised-prelims-live-stream-online.html

Fight_Ghost ‏@Fight_Ghost 7m
Not heavily invested either side, but I do think Eric Silva will kick the shit out of Brown & that everyone is wrong there. Time will tell.

big MMA bettor, interesting to see. i tossed in a small bet on brown at +185. expect line to plummet towards end and will buy out if i can get silva even -175

I was hoping Wineland would keep his hands up after getting spinning backed kicked in the face. Would give him a better shot in a rematch with Barao.

Holy shit. Maybe he'll keep his hands up now? lol.

Well fuck... Ruined my two parlays, even though I made money with the bet on Eduardo...

Wow, always nice to see a big underdog win

i had never watched eduardo before today, but after about 30 seconds it was clear the fight was even. wonder if tape said same thing? apparently he was striking coach for nova uniao?

guess he won't be wrecking that kid....

On May 10 2014 19:24 Daut wrote: i had never watched eduardo before today, but after about 30 seconds it was clear the fight was even. wonder if tape said same thing? apparently he was striking coach for nova uniao?

Yeah, apparently...

After 2 years off, many of us assumed Wineland would easily win. Wineland closed at -1050 on SBG Global.

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Money is coming in on Erick Silva. Brown is now at +208 on Bookmaker. I'll bet Brown, but waiting to see where his line goes.

On May 10 2014 18:11 PuertoRican wrote: Since the lines keep going up, I added the following bets: Zak Cummings +450 $5 Johnny Eduardo +605 $5 Wineland should beat Eduardo, but Wineland being -900 or more is insane. Cummings sucks afaik, but I'll take a shot here.

Both cashed~~~

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Bookmaker isn't offering any live betting for the Fox Sports 2 prelims, so I haven't been able to make any serious money. Hopefully they have live betting for the main card on Fox Sports 1.

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Just added: Montague/Horiguchi o2½ -110 $5

No idea who'll win, but I know Montague is a tough guy.

Talk about being KO`ed on your feet...

Horiguchi is a beast. Can't believe this is only the 2nd fight I've seen of him.

awesome heavyweight boxing on now. two top 8 guys going at it. put on ESPN if you want a 30 minute break from UFC

On May 10 2014 20:35 Daut wrote: awesome heavyweight boxing on now. two top 8 guys going at it. put on ESPN if you want a 30 minute break from UFC

Arreola closed at +200. I had a parlay with Stiverne -140, but it busted earlier today. Stiverne closed at -250.

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Main card: http://www.vipboxus.co/boxing/224220/...rown-vs-silva-live-stream-online.html

smolka looked awful. it was irritating watching him not utilize his height in the clinch, and how he kept going for those judo throws just to give up his back..

On May 10 2014 21:35 k4ir0s wrote: smolka looked awful. it was irritating watching him not utilize his height in the clinch, and how he kept going for those judo throws just to give up his back..

Yeah, Smolka looked like shit. I almost bet him too...

Rafael Natal looked like shit as well, even more so than usual. I think he was mentally on tilt after he had trouble getting Herman down and was getting countered in round 2 when he would throw kicks.

Cruickshank is good at backflips

man, the underdogs tonight. losing my kountermove bets

fancy kicks by Cruickshank

Yeah, nice kick by Cruickshank.

There's no live betting on Bookmaker tonight, so this has been a waste of time for me. Hopefully the next two fights are more interesting.

Underdogs have won 8 of the last 10 fights.

I can't believe I didn't take the u2.5@3.25 on Phillipou / Larkin. I just haven't seen enough of Larkin and figured there was a reason.

On May 10 2014 01:01 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On May 09 2014 23:17 Baalim wrote: I dont know I dont like to bet against Silva he is just weird he seems to me like a true prodigy that just finds way to lose fights, I think one day he will get past that shit and destroy everyone if he was 24 id agree, but hes about to turn 30. i think hes just the kind of fighter that absolutely destroys everyone who isnt in the same league as him, but if you are a top 20 guy you can give him fits, frustrate him and eventually win. then again, fitch was still a top 5 guy and he was really crushing DHK before the flukey KO. i dunno, i just dont trust him past the first few minutes of a fight

what are you talking about, Im 30 and I am just right in my prime

did brown trip on his way out? Thats not a good sign..

god ohio is such a piece of shit state..

kids done.

omg i think silva might die standing up before he gets KO'd..

Brown needs to keep it up and get the finish. He was running out of gas and couldn't finish in round 1, hopefully this intermission helped him.

dude this kid must have some brain damage after this...

is it illegal to do a double handed thai clinch and then knee to the head? seems like brown has had lots of options to do that and have a good shot at putting silva out with it, but hes not using it.

Are you fucking serious?

nevermind all I said Silva is fucking garbage wtf is wrong with his cardio, he lats half a fucking round

Now all we really need is to break the kids bone structure and make him ugly like the people of Cinncinati.

brutal

Brown shows once again that he owns all Welterweights outside of the top 10. He's now on a 7-fight win streak.

On May 10 2014 23:48 milkman wrote: is it illegal to do a double handed thai clinch and then knee to the head? seems like brown has had lots of options to do that and have a good shot at putting silva out with it, but hes not using it.

its legal in MMA, illegal in K1 because they think its OP

and brown is a retard lol..

that was awesome

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Erick Silva had to be taken out of the octagon via stretcher. He's in the hospital right now.

matt brown would finish gsp

"Erick Silva still being worked on in the cage. Lights have been dimmed and he is still laying in the cage with people surrounding him."

This was taken just after the fight ended. Dana White said Silva was taken to the hospital after the fight to check for a "concussion and possible fractured jaw." That kid needs to take a year off and tweak his skill set, or just retire. He is a beast if he gets on top of you but, he isn't too dangerous when he's on his back, and... He brawls when he's on his feet and takes a lot of damage. I mentioned earlier in this thread that Silva's striking defense sucks, and he proved it once again tonight.

Hopefully his coach (Wallid Ismail) doesn't force him to do anything stupid, cuz Silva will listen to whatever he says and continue getting hurt in the cage.

+ Show Spoiler +

where are the .gifs?

missed the event

Not that I disagree that his strikign defense sucks but we didnt even get to see any kind of defense, he was absolutelly exhausted as soon as he lost the back, he was just a clumsy punching bag running and stumbling from side to side of the cage.


His corner is absolutely retarded (but i think most corners are), those idiots kept telling him "dont fight up close" no shit sherlock, obviously Brown is bum rushing him, your guy has 0 left in the tank and his only out is to kick the body again, een if its expected just swing it like a bat to the ribs and you might win, they should have told him to do that and they also should have that towel ready, their corner should have stopped the fight way before he got taken down.

On May 11 2014 02:39 jvilla777 wrote: where are the .gifs? missed the event

The guy who made the gifs for every event recently stopped cuz the UFC told him to. I'm not sure what other information there is with the story but, we'll have to wait until a new person eventually takes his place.

where can i find good quality streams now?

mmashare is where i watch fights after an event.

and i read that silva had a nose issue (not sure if it was an injury or an illness) that turned him into a literal mouthbreather (as if hes not already dumb enough) which likely made his already bad cardio even worse.

k1 outlawed the thai clinch and made a "one hand clinch then release rule" because overeem was destroying opponents with just that and fights become pretty shitty one sided reem clinching events. i read it somewhere before which made me believe overeem was legit. i was so wrong lol.

Real talk, if Erick Silva wasn't extremely handsome, nobody would give a fuck about him.

He's considered handsome? Reallllllly? I find his haircut to be extremely tilting... He looks like he should be wearing bell bottom pants.

Horiguchi vs Montague was awesome, Montague is tough as fuck. Main event was awesome, not sure how Erick Silva didn't die in round 2.

On May 11 2014 08:02 whamm! wrote: k1 outlawed the thai clinch and made a "one hand clinch then release rule" because overeem was destroying opponents with just that and fights become pretty shitty one sided reem clinching events. i read it somewhere before which made me believe overeem was legit. i was so wrong lol.

Thought it was because of Buakaw murder-death-killing Masato...

Won straight bet on Brown + brown by KO/TKO and a straight bet on Costas. Also had a pretty big parlay with brown/costas/daron/soa/wineland :#

On May 11 2014 07:46 Daut wrote: mmashare is where i watch fights after an event. and i read that silva had a nose issue (not sure if it was an injury or an illness) that turned him into a literal mouthbreather (as if hes not already dumb enough) which likely made his already bad cardio even worse.

thanks

On May 11 2014 08:17 TianYuan wrote: Show nested quote + Real talk, if Erick Silva wasn't extremely handsome, nobody would give a fuck about him. He's considered handsome? Reallllllly? I find his haircut to be extremely tilting... He looks like he should be wearing bell bottom pants.

Well, he's no FrozenArbiter but, many fans think he's handsome and still call him a prospect. Dana White keeps trying to push him to be a star, but he can't win more than one fight in a row against low level competition, as we saw last night.

It's pretty crazy when you think about it. Erick beat a late replacement fighter whom they hired to get destroyed, and then with that one win, they have him headline a card against the #7 ranked fighter who is on a 6-fight win streak.

On May 11 2014 12:59 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 11 2014 08:17 TianYuan wrote:   Real talk, if Erick Silva wasn't extremely handsome, nobody would give a fuck about him. He's considered handsome? Reallllllly? I find his haircut to be extremely tilting... He looks like he should be wearing bell bottom pants. Well, he's no FrozenArbiter but, many fans think he's handsome and still call him a prospect. Dana White keeps trying to push him to be a star, but he can't win more than one fight in a row against low level competition, as we saw last night. It's pretty crazy when you think about it. Erick beat a late replacement fighter whom they hired to get destroyed, and then with that one win, they have him headline a card against the #7 ranked fighter who is on a 6-fight win streak.

Well I think Dana just sees what many of us did, he has a huge natural talent, but he has issues so big that eclipse any talent he has.

Everybody is praising brown and shit and tbh im not impressed, he got destroyed early in the 1st round and then all he did was just swarm a punching bag, so im impressed by his resilence and his cardio, but nothing more.

well, i bet his next opponent is going to hit him to the body