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Need help with poker math problem

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Nitewin   United States. Apr 08 2014 15:37. Posts 826

Critique this hand using ranges and math (SB vs BB) 2/4 NLHE 6 Handed:

UTG Folds
UTG+1 Folds
CO Folds
BTN Folds
...
Hero ($505.45)...
Villain ($407.45) ...


Pre Flop: (Pot: $6)

Dealt to Hero: [?,?]
Dealt to Villain [?,?]
Hero(SB) raises $4 to $12
Villain(BB) Calls $8


Flop: (Pot: $24)

9cTh2h
Hero(SB) bets $20
Villain(BB) raises $20 to $48
Hero(SB) calls $28


Turn: (Pot: $120)

9cTh2hAc
Hero(SB) checks, Villain(BB) bets $98
Me(SB) raises $98 to $347.45
Villain(BB) calls $249.45(is All-In)

River: ?


This guy is a reg and knows how to play.


Spoiler (our cards):

+ Show Spoiler +




When I run into situations like these, I kind of close my eyes and jam. Is this a spew or how should this be played differently? If I fold the flop, I'd just be letting myself get run over. It would be nice to see the analysis of a pro LPer. Thanks in advance.

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 Last edit: 11/04/2014 11:50

goose58   United States. Apr 08 2014 16:32. Posts 868

I don't think you have much turn fold equity, so calling is better the more value heavy his flop c/r range is. The more drawy/bluffy his flop c/r range is, the more I like a turn shove.

Also we can possibly bluff some rivers when we just call the turn.

For your equity calculations, just plug the ranges into equilab.


dogmeat   Czech Republic. Apr 09 2014 14:01. Posts 6374

vague question, how do you expect anyone to answer without knowing your pf range, flop betting and c/c,c/r ranges? [?] math

only obv thing is you should call his flop raise at least 52% of time, more like 60% of time realistically given his equity and 55%+ on the turn

Q8cc proly b/f on the flop

ban baal 

GoldRush   United States. Apr 10 2014 22:21. Posts 1025

B/F - edit - dont peel gutshots oop unless your deep or he tilts very easy

 Last edit: 10/04/2014 22:23

Nitewin   United States. Apr 11 2014 11:33. Posts 826

@goose58: What dictates fold equity? His hand equity vs my range right? So his decision is to call 249.45 to win 249.45 + 120 + 98 + 98, which is 44.11%. His equity vs a naked ace is 30%. My jamming range should be seen as extremely strong here, unless I'm a donking like in this particular hand (which isn't often). So his hand is foldable, right? My read was that he was on a draw and in the heat of the moment i jammed. In retrospect, his betting range contains some pretty strong hands. But a play like this imho is warranted to keep people from toying with you.

@dogmeat: You're right. I guess I don't have a fixed pf range vs people. I kind of play what I feel depending on the gameflow.

@Goldrush: Agreed. My rationale was that he near min raised me and I felt like he could do that with all his missed hands with no equity, because that's the type of player he is. My plan was to take it away from him on a later street.

 Last edit: 11/04/2014 11:37

 



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