UFC FN 38: Shogun vs. Henderson 2

Date: Sunday, March 23rd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 15:30 LP.net / 1:30pm PST / 4:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 16:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card Time (Fox Sports 1): 18:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Mauricio Rua (22-8) vs. Dan Henderson (29-11) (Light Heavyweight)
Cezar Ferreira (7-2) vs. C.B. Dollaway (13-5) (Middleweight)
Leonardo Santos (12-3) vs. Norman Parke (19-2) (Lightweight)
Fabio Maldonado (20-6) vs. Gian Villante (11-4) (Light Heavyweight)
Michel Prazeres (17-1) vs. Mairbek Taisumov (21-4) (Lightweight)
Rony Jason (13-4) vs. Steven Siler (23-11) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Diego Brandao (18-9) vs. Will Chope (19-6) (Featherweight)
Ronny Markes (14-2) vs. Thiago Santos (8-2) (Middleweight)
Jussier Formiga (15-3) vs. Scott Jorgensen (14-8) (Flyweight)
Thiago Perpetuo (9-2-1) vs. Kenny Robertson (12-3) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Godofredo Castro (9-3) vs. Noad Lahat (7-0) (Featherweight)
Francimar Barroso (16-3) vs. Hans Stringer (21-5-3) (Light Heavyweight)

Other

- Gleison Tibau was expected to face Mairbek Taisumov at the event. However, Tibau pulled out of the bout citing injury and was replaced by Michel Prazeres.

First thoughts:

• Shogun > Henderson (Aside from Shogun knocking out Te Huna, neither guy has looked good for a long time. Shogun has home field advantage this time. Either Hendo's chin finally breaks, or Shogun wins a decision. This is a 5-round fight.)
• Dolloway > Ferreira (Wrestler vs. striker. Dolloway can win easily on the ground, Ferreira can win on the feet. Ferreira has cardio issues.)
• Parke > Santos (Santos is just a good BJJ player, nothing more. His opponent in the TUF Brazil finale choked against him and also gassed. Parke is the better overall fighter.)
• Maldonado vs. Villante (Hard fight to pick. Villante is the better MMA fighter, as he has superior striking skills, wrestling, and BJJ. The tricky thing is that Maldonado has one of the two best chins at Light Heavyweight, and he fights like a zombie. Maldonado has home field advantage, so mass punches just might work.)
• Prazeres vs. Taisumov (dunno)
• Jason vs. Siler (Another good fight. Siler has the better cardio and has more heart, and he's very aggressive in the grappling department. Jason probably has the better striking, and he also has home field advantage. I'd look to get Siler at +3.5 points or take the Over.)
• Chope > Brandao (I liked what I saw from Chope in his debut against Holloway. He's tall as fuck, and he was very aggressive. Brandao didn't train at Jackson's MMA for this fight and said he hasn't had time to focus a lot for this fight. Brandao is done if he can't win in round 1. Maybe bet Chope +3.5 or Chope ML mixed with Brandao in round 1.)
• Markes vs. Santos (dunno)
• Formiga vs. Jorgensen (Another hard fight to pick. Formiga is so overrated, while Jorgensen hasn't looked good for awhile, and this is a "loser leaves town" fight for both of them. If Jorgensen doesn't finish the fight in round 1, Formiga will probably win a decision. If Formiga is the favorite, I'd take Jorgensen +3.5 points with Formiga wins by decision.)
• Perpetuo vs. Robertson (dunno)
• Castro vs. Lahat (dunno)
• Barroso vs. Stringer (dunno)


8 fighters returning from a TKO loss, might be a record.

Henderson - returning from TKO loss (ugly head kick KO)
Santos - small ring rust 258 days
Prazeres - short notice 3 weeks (in for Gleison Tibau)
Jason - returning from TKO loss (ugly head kick KO)
Brandao - returning from TKO loss (ugly TKO that had a late stoppage)
Chope - returning from TKO loss
Markes - returning from TKO loss
Formiga - returning from TKO loss (ugly KO)
Robertson - returning from undisclosed injury (pulled out of Zeferino fight), ring rust 281 days
Perpetuo - returning from TKO loss
Lahat - UFC debut
Pepey - returning from TKO loss
Stringer - UFC debut

Shogun vs. Dan Henderson (first fight): http://www.fights4all.com/mauricio-sh...vs-dan-henderson-video_aedeb91f9.html

Hendo is at +195, very good odds IMO.

Shogun will win and retire Hendo.Both are not looking good so the only way to have a good fight is to make it 1 round.It is gonna be fun.

Hendo didnt look bad against Machida and Rashad, who are tops, and both were split decisions. He got smashed by belfort, but he is a beast. On the other hand, Shogun looked terrible in last fights, only with tehuna looked good. So, I will definitely bet Hendo for that odds.

i'd lean toward Henderson too with those odds.

On March 18 2014 10:11 alejandicto wrote: SHogun is at +195, very good odds IMO.

You got my hopes up for a second :[

Shogun is -225 Henderson is +185 on five dimes right now.

lol @ RONDA DROPS CAMPIONS WITH BODY SHOTS

On March 18 2014 13:12 NMcNasty wrote: Show nested quote + On March 18 2014 10:11 alejandicto wrote: SHogun is at +195, very good odds IMO. You got my hopes up for a second :[ Shogun is -225 Henderson is +185 on five dimes right now.

haha my mistake, I meant Hendo is at +195.

On March 19 2014 00:26 drone666 wrote: lol @ RONDA DROPS CAMPIONS WITH BODY SHOTS

not just champions EVERYBODY lol

Parke @ -240
Dollaway @ +170
SHogun @ -235

those are the best SU bets imo
Dollaway line prob will get better, Parke is getting worse for sure, Shogun line Im not sure, prob will stay around -250

I like the over 2.5 on Henderon vs Shogun

Im not so sure henderson at +180 is a good bet, to me he has been slowly degrading and finally his age is catching up to him, I usually say its hard to get info in short fights but he looked beyond terrible vs Belfort.

Belfort is no monster, its a monster if you try to straight box him at close range, but he is garbage if you grind him, Couture showed the world how to beat Belfort 15 years ago and there goes Henderson trying to force an incredibly telegraphed right haymaker with no setup whatsoever and he obviously got easily KOd, if the same Henderson shows against Shogun he will get knocked out again.

Same reason why im not sure a bet on over 2.5 is a good idea, Hendersons chin is probalby still weak after that and Shogun has never had a great chin and both can easily end it any time and people will just remember they went the distance the last fight.

I agree with most of that,
but Henderson's never been knocked out until Vitor Belfort and Shogun wasn't knocked out in their last fight. Its going to be hard to repeat that much damage. I do think Shoguns chances go way up in a 5 round fight and Belfort is the definition of a monster. His focus is on another level right now.

Its bad when guys with iron chin get KOed, think of Anderson Silva, how frail his chin was in his 2nd fight with Weidman, he used to expose his chin and take shots like nothing and suddenly he is unconscious for a split second with a slight tap from the clinch in their second fight?

Monster is an abstract term, Belfort is very dangerous but he got KOd with ease by Silva and he was no threat to Jones on the stand up, considering his TRT rage strenght and his hand speed he should have been more dangeorus to Jones but he never managed to get in range, and he has always been relatively easy to deal with if you dont just fight into his style.

Henderson is a bit diffrent in the sense that he has an iron chin from getting punched in the head and AS had never been knocked out because it was really hard to hit him, so when he finally got hurt it would make sense a fear appeared. Henderson's been hurt plenty of times, its not natural for him to collapse to it. If he does get finished it would be to his degradation from age I think. I do think I should have waited until weigh-ins to take a look at him before placing the bet.

On March 21 2014 12:48 Minsk wrote: Henderson is a bit diffrent in the sense that he has an iron chin from getting punched in the head and AS had never been knocked out because it was really hard to hit him, so when he finally got hurt it would make sense a fear appeared. Henderson's been hurt plenty of times, its not natural for him to collapse to it. If he does get finished it would be to his degradation from age I think. I do think I should have waited until weigh-ins to take a look at him before placing the bet.

Hendo always looks the same during weigh-ins. Since this is the last time he'll be on TRT, I would focus on how he looks for his next fight.

Hendo is the last guy who was granted a TRT license before the new rules were put into place, so that's good for him. Other fighters on TRT are supposed to sit out for awhile so their bodies can get used to not having the extra TRT in them or something, and also so they can pass future drug tests for their next fights.

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If you're bored, there's a Bellator MMA event on tonight (Friday). It starts at 4pm PST/7pm EST.

Prelims: http://www.spike.com/shows/bellator-mma/live

Came in here to say that.

Also wanted to say thanks for all the good MMA shit post Puerto, you're the man.

On March 21 2014 18:05 Stim_Abuser wrote: Came in here to say that. Also wanted to say thanks for all the good MMA shit post Puerto, you're the man.

Super Duper Bobby Cooper looks good with his boxing, but his opponent is a can.

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As for Bellator, I have the following for my Kountermove card: Marcin Held, Eric Wisely, David Rickels, Emanuel Newton, and LC Davis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellator_MMA:_Season_Ten#Bellator_CXIII

Brandon Girtz is supposed to be the favorite according to bettors and fans, yet he's the underdog on 5dimes and Bookmaker, so I followed other bettors and put a bet on Girtz to win. Girtz is even the favorite on Kountermove, so this is probably one of the many times online bookies undervalue fighters in Bellator.

I seriously can't comprehend how someones punching technique can be so bad. It's ridiculous.

Jesus worst stoppage I've ever seen...

On March 21 2014 18:37 Stim_Abuser wrote: Jesus worst stoppage I've ever seen...

Yeah, me2.

Last week, there was this video of some guy getting choked out in his MMA debut, and his mom crawled over the fence to check on him. Security had to escort her out after her son quickly woke up.

Newton is so awkward punching, lol
and Mo got owned twice

On March 21 2014 21:52 drone666 wrote: Newton is so awkward punching, lol and Mo got owned twice

You could take a trip down to Brazil and see sparring sessions where two fighters go harder than what we just saw between Vegh and Newton.

We'll either see Newton own Rampage from long-distance fighting, or we'll King Mo lose to Newton for the third time.

Bellator's light heavyweight and heavyweight divisions... zZzZzZz

That stoppage T_T

Thinking about betting Shogun at -225.

edit: Bet him at -235 for $470

Last fight Shogun got tagged with some hard punches and came back to win rounds 4-5. I feel like as long as they are still standing by the time rounds 4-5 come it's going to be more of the same. Henderson's cardio will always give him trouble in five round fights especially now that he's three years older. Gameplan wise I also feel that the first fight has taught them a lot. However Shogun is the only one who has the tools to effectively adapt to that.

Stupid question but, why don't you guys bet with each others? i see LPers betting hendo at +180, and others betting shogun at -235 Save the rake guys!

Sho gun wins this time around

Not sure about the over 2.5 rounds though

I think people will bet Dan Henderson on fight-day. Seeing him at the weigh-ins won't tell them anything different, and seeing his line at +200 or better will be too juicy for many people to pass up. I'm not sure where Shogun's line will end up, but I feel confident that it will get better than -215.

Shogun looking leaner than usual and Hendo weighing in at 202. Cardio was probably a big priority to both of them in camp.

My thoughts after the weigh-in (not betting this card, so it doesn't matter I guess):

• Shogun > Henderson (Shogun looked good during the weigh-ins, while Hendo looked average. 205 vs 202 pounds.)
• Dolloway > Ferreira (Wrestler vs. striker. Dolloway can win easily on the ground, Ferreira can win on the feet with kicks, but Dolloway has better boxing imo. Ferreira also has cardio issues.)
• Parke > Santos (Santos is just a good BJJ player, nothing more. His opponent in the TUF Brazil finale choked against him and also gassed. Parke is the better overall fighter.)
• Maldonado > Villante (Villante is the better fighter in almost every area, but I think Maldonado will win a split-decision here.)
• Taisumov > Prazeres (Taisumov was known as a finisher before he entered the UFC, but showed in his debut that he had no worries playing it safe to secure a decision win. Prazeres has cardio issues, so it's hard to say if Taisumov will win ITD or by decision.)
• Jason > Siler (Jason will probably win by decision, but I like Siler at +3.5 points or just take the Over.)
• Chope > Brandao (Brandao is the rightful favorite and looked better during the weigh-ins this time, however, I keep seeing Bigfoot vs. Fedor in my head when I think about this fight, and at +350 or better, I think Chope is worth a small bet.)
• Markes > Santos (Santos weighed in 2 pounds under weight (183) and looked slow and tired. Markes weighed in 5 pounds over weight (190) and looked more fresh.)
• Jorgensen > Formiga (I think Jorgensen will win, but I would avoid betting this fight at all costs. If I were to bet this fight, I'd bet Formiga +3.5 points.)
• Perpetuo vs. Robertson (dunno)
• Lahat > Castro
• Barroso > Stringer

Any other streams for this besides vipbox? link seems to be NOT working

edit: nevermind I though it was showing today in AU

Jon Anik ‏@Jon_Anik 3 hrs
Supposedly some air conditioning units are being brought into the arena in time for the fights tomorrow. 90+ in there today.

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I remember it was hot in the last event in Brazil, and fighters were looking sluggish at times. However, it's usually hot in the Brazilian venues. In general, 2014 has been the year of Decision wins.

UFC events in Brazil since January 2013

February 15th, 2014: 10 decisions, 1 KO/TKO, 1 submission
November 9th, 2013: 2 decisions, 5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions
October 9th, 2013: 6 decisions, 3 KO/TKO, 1 submission
September 4th, 2013: 5 decisions, 4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions
August 3rd, 2013: 5 decisions, 5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions
June 8th, 2013: 2 decisions, 2 KO/TKO, 8 submissions
May 18th, 2013: 6 decisions, 4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions
January 19th, 2013: 4 decisions, 2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 1 NC

27-30 celsius and a very humid arena is what fighters should expect if the fight is taking place in natal.

On March 22 2014 12:38 Floofy wrote: Stupid question but, why don't you guys bet with each others? i see LPers betting hendo at +180, and others betting shogun at -235 Save the rake guys!

We should have some method to this this

"Will Chope's octagon career was destined to be cut short following yesterday's revelation by Bleacher Report that the UFC featherweight received a bad-conduct discharge from the Air Force related to charges of domestic violence. A document that covered Chope's appeal revealed sickening details such as multiple violent incidents culminating in an incident where Chope grabbed a knife, slammed his ex-wife's head into the ground and used the knife to threaten and attack her (with the handle).

Combate is now reporting that Chope has been released from his UFC contractand tonight's scheduled bout with Diego Brandao has been cancelled."

On March 23 2014 00:08 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On March 22 2014 12:38 Floofy wrote: Stupid question but, why don't you guys bet with each others? i see LPers betting hendo at +180, and others betting shogun at -235 Save the rake guys! We should have some method to this this

Yeah almost need another thread for it though... There used to be a sportsbetting thread but its hard to verify people as well.

Hendo is now +220/+230. If you were going to bet this fight, it would be good to start with a bet on Hendo and then live bet Shogun after Hendo wins a round or two. Hendo won the first two rounds of their first fight.

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Multiple people have mentioned that the UFC octagon for this event looks smaller than usual. I also think it looks a little smaller.

If the octagon is smaller, this will mean more finishes.

that is a lot of finishes

On March 23 2014 17:46 Nazgul wrote: that is a lot of finishes

All of the fights won have been by underdogs...

Santos +660
Formiga +170
Robertson +125
Stringer +125
Pepey +225

Shogun @ -155
sick price, that's a surprise for me

On March 23 2014 18:55 drone666 wrote: Shogun @ -155 sick price, that's a surprise for me

Interesting lines on Bookmaker.

Shogun -160, Hendo +135
Dolloway +270, Ferreira -330
Villante -270, Maldonado +223

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Underdogs are 6-1 so far tonight.

Prazeres +285
Jason -185
Santos +660
Formiga +170
Robertson +125
Stringer +125
Pepey +225

i hit shogun at -170 just now, apparently it was -160 on bovada but i missed it.

wtf shogun lines!?

fuck me

On March 23 2014 19:07 Nazgul wrote: wtf shogun lines!? fuck me

not just shogun, the lines just went crazy in the last hour

Maldonado vs Vilante



Shogun vs Hendo



CB vs Ferreira




--------------------------------------------

lol @ Boetsch +1000 vs Rockhold

Maldonado is a beast~~~

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Underdogs are 7-1 so far tonight.

Maldonado +260
Prazeres +285
Jason -185
Santos +660
Formiga +170
Robertson +125
Stringer +125
Pepey +225

Does this mean its rigged or that I should buy Shogun and Dolloway?

lol @ draw. O_O

Round 1: tie (tie round, just depends what the judges wanted to see)
Round 2: Santos (either 10-8 for Santos, or 9-9)
Round 3: Parke (clinching against the fence, no damage done)


Tough fight to judge.

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Underdogs are 7-1-1 so far tonight.

Parke vs. Santos (draw)
Maldonado +260
Prazeres +285
Jason -185
Santos +660
Formiga +170
Robertson +125
Stringer +125
Pepey +225

Shogun now at -145 on Bookmaker.

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Dolloway straight owning these over hyped Brazilians!

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Underdogs are 8-1-1 so far tonight.

Dolloway +340
Parke vs. Santos (draw)
Maldonado +260
Prazeres +285
Jason -185
Santos +660
Formiga +170
Robertson +125
Stringer +125
Pepey +225

dolloway made that shit look easy.

just like AA vs AK all in pre

here we go with my shitty -230

This fight will end with the fans saying one of two things: "I'll never doubt Hendo again," or, "the Shogun era has returned and he should get the next title shot."

Hendo's chin looked weak at the end of round 1. He barely got clipped it seems and went down.

I wouldn't call that weak. Either way he's in trouble if he can't even win the first round.

hendo is still wobbly

On March 23 2014 20:46 Nazgul wrote: I wouldn't call that weak. Either way he's in trouble if he can't even win the first round.

Well yeah, not "weak." But, he has taken a lot more in the past.

Round 2 just started, and Hendo got dropped by a step-in uppercut.

FUUUUUUUUUUUUAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARKKK

..................

Hendo +900 live
I thought about pulling the trigger just because I was remembering Hendo vs Fedor fight

Hendo should never be THAT underdog in the middle of a fight because he always has that chance of landing the H-bomb

kakakakakaka what a suckout

That was insane. Also looks like all the follow ups to the back of the head

Damn! Hendo broke Shogun's nose!!!

On March 23 2014 20:55 Nazgul wrote: That was insane. Also looks like all the follow ups to the back of the head

I thought that might have helped with the finish, but then seeing the impact of the first punch to the nose then the follow up punch to the nose was enough to end it. He couldn't keep his balance once Herb Dean stepped in.

how shogun feels

+ Show Spoiler +

lol i snapped up shogun at -145... watched the line snap back up to -170 and still watch shogun lose like that O_O

sick beat.

That's TRTs last hurray, right?

Underdogs went 9-1-1 tonight. Sickest UFC card in awhile...

Henderson +230
Dolloway +340
Parke vs. Santos (draw)
Maldonado +260
Prazeres +285
Jason -185
Santos +660
Formiga +170
Robertson +125
Stringer +125
Pepey +225

Edit: The only favorite to win a fight was due to a very very early stoppage.

On March 23 2014 21:01 ERASA wrote: That's TRTs last hurray, right?

Yes.

fuck. shogun should retire. sad how all pride guys' age have finally caught up with them. now with no TRT how the fuk is Belfort going to win?

On March 23 2014 21:29 whamm! wrote: fuck. shogun should retire. sad how all pride guys' age have finally caught up with them. now with no TRT how the fuk is Belfort going to win?

Shogun was winning the whole fight before that sneaky right hand caugh him, actually it was a beautiful set up by Hendo really hard to see it coming but Shogun should be a favorite in a 3rd fight too.


Shogun fought like a retard when he had Hendo hurting, Hendo went into his usual desperate mode loading the haymaker, he stopped throwing his left hook he was sitting duck and what does Shogun do? does he stays on the ouside exploiting him with switch inside leg kicks? NO, does he throws his countering plan by fainting and using different attack angles? NO, he uses the same stupid commiting stepping jab over and over only because he can somewhat hide his head behind the shoulder, he didnt get KOd that way and instead ate a beautiful tricky "wrestling hook" but come on why fight in such a stupid way?

herb dean's baby steps tho

I bet on Henderson but I have to admit it was a bad bet, I was lucky Shogun fought in a very stupid way

they both looked really bad
barely top 10 in the best case scenario

back of the head strikes? herb dean lol
they should just remove that stupid rule if no ref is gonna penalize anyone for it

got so lucky, was gonna bet on shogun but was busy and missed it

Shogun shoop thread: http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/shoop-dat-kneeling-gun-2703355/