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RiKD    United States. Sep 15 2012 10:57. Posts 8601

My only discussion point to add right now is that using the word "historically" is an error unless you are talking about history.

History is only one data point to predict the future. It can give you insight into a number of things but accurately predicting future inflation rates is not one of them (especially accurately predicting future inflation rates better than professionals).

Be that as it may:

-I would agree that 2-3% inflation is a fair forecast and much better than not considering inflation.

-I would disagree that 7% ROI on non-sharp investments is something that should be assumed

-I would agree that 3.75% interest is "good" debt especially if you are a poker player depending on your psychological tolerance to debt

-I would agree that the debt vs investment allocation debate is subjective and individual and psychological factors and honest reflection should be a factor

-I would agree optimally one should pay off debt if one is unsure of other better ROI investment avenues.

-I would agree that resources like time, effort, focus, energy, etc. and assets such as valuable knowledge and information should be considered along with money when making investment decisions

*I have no idea how truthful this is but I just thought of a potential way to more accurately predict inflation rates:

-Look at a number of Banks' Savings Account Offerings
-Try to determine their motives on how they are going to make money from their offering (Are they willing to take a loss to recruit customers? Are they more conservative and looking for volume at x margin? Do they already have customers and rape said customers?)
-(Informational) Profit?


 
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