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Variance is a cruel mistress

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beethreekay   Ireland. Sep 27 2007 00:20. Posts 147
Played live today at my local casino for the first time in a few weeks (1-3 PL is the main game they spread), and had one of my worst runs ever. I had AA cracked three times and KK beaten twice.

First hand I sit down, I pick up KK in MP and raise to 20 over a few limpers. SB pushes for 50 and I call. He shows A4o. Ace on the flop.

A few hours later, with me around breakeven for the night, I pick up AA on the button and raise to 15. 3 callers. Flop comes T95 all hearts. I don't have the Ah. Checked to me, I bet 50, SB c/r all-in for about 120. I fold, and he flashes Kh2h. Not sure about betting this flop. Check behind maybe, but does that mean we're pretty much surrendering the pot?

Not too long after, I pick up AA again, and raise to 15. 3 callers again. Flop comes J95 rainbow. Station UTG bets 60, I raise to 200, he calls AI for about 160 total. He turns over AJ and rivers a J. This one sent me on big-time tilt, as I had been targeting this guy specifically, c-betting him a lot, even though I knew he would call me down light, just to set up a value extraction like this. A whole night's work gone to a 2-outer.

After sitting out of the game for a while to calm down, I reload and pick up KK pretty quickly in the CO. Tight pla<x>yer UTG raises to 10, folded to me, and I 3-bet to 35. He calls. Flop comes A33, 2 diamonds. He checks, I bet 45, he c/r AI for 80. I'm getting about 6-1, but I still think calling here was wrong since I'm a 9-1 dog if he has an Ace. I do call, though, and he flips over Ac7c. Turn is another diamond, giving me flush outs, but the river bricks. Should I have even bothered to c-bet this flop, given how short he is. Is checking behind better and folding to a bet? (although, as it happened, I still call or bet the turn when I pick up the nut flush draw)

Finally, the night is capped off when I pick up AA in LP. I raise to 20 over limpers, and get two callers (guy who just cracked my Kings and station from earlier). Flop comes T75 rainbow. Tight pla<x>yer bets 25, station calls, and I raise to 100. Tight pla<x>yer calls. Turn is a blank, he checks and I put him in for about 140. He thinks for a while, then says, "I think you have AK" and calls, showing QhTh. River is a T, gg me.

Overall, I finished down about €800, which is quite bad for me since I was underrolled enough for live games like this already (I had about 10BI before tonight). I know it's bad BR management, but this is the smallest game offered in my city and the game is so soft that it's almost impossible to resist. I am now left with the choice of shortstacking at this game or giving up live play completely and concentrating entirely on online until I've built enough of a roll that I can cash out to use live.

Speaking of online, I had a pretty good session last night, getting back most of what I'd dropped in the previous session:



I'm quite happy with my play from this session. I didn't make too many stupid mistakes (except a one or two bad decisions with big pairs PF), and I felt I brought my B+ game, if not quite my A game. I also ran good, which helps too.

Some of the highlights:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/281646 - Probably the first time the bet/3-bet line has actually worked for me

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/281647 - This is how you play quads

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/281648 - Sucking out on the slowpla<x>yer

If I can keep this up, I'm confident I can be back at 25NL within a week and back on the road to poker success...if only variance behaves itself...

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locoo   Peru. Sep 27 2007 00:51. Posts 4561

suggest raising live to 20 25 or 30 with aces or kings pf

bitte bitte bitte bitte bitte bitte 

Verbloten   Australia. Sep 27 2007 01:54. Posts 1889

why would u not put your available money offline online and start playing 100NL or something online - surely this is the goer? You could have deposited something like 3K with that 800 pounds right?


lucifer   Sweden. Sep 27 2007 08:50. Posts 5955

and the day after you deposit the $$$$ stop sucking and goes back up and you double your money without play! awesome.

On February 19 2009 22:21 Confedrate wrote: i dont get it 

 



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