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Anyone going to be there and wanna meet up? I'm prob going to be down there late-ish. Looking to play some cash at borgata.


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i don't really know if i've been through a stretch this brutal before. is this just bad? or really bad? all 100nl.

aipf for the month, filtered for AK, QQ+

http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/1167/aipfsept.png

okay, now that i've posted it, it's time to move on.


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GOTTA PAY 'EM! NO CHOICE! Even if there isn't much of a paper trail, seriously guys. Pay your taxes.


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Another nice one, yay, too bad I ran ridic bad from game 90 on. 4 days ahead of pace already, only 4 days in, will hit SN tomorrow or tuesday at least.

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/9948/day4.png

Some hero calls today (standard sunday):
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Sick one imo, I was calling any river:
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Value shove:
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x


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I played 2057 hands of MTT sng format today with buyins less than or equal to $ 4.4 with the $ 78 that I had left on the site, in order to attempt to make my nut, seeing no recourse, since there was no way that I'd be able to make my month-end target (covering the nut) continuing to play cash because there are not enough hours in the day because I have to do things like sleep and eat and write. I'd recorded an EV bb/100 of 44 over a tiny sample of penny NL but it doesn't mean shit when that winrate amounts to $ 3.50/hour cash in hand and, besides, this level of winrate is clearly unsustainable. I figure it's good for 2/hr, maybe barely 3. Throw up some error bars and it's not unreasonable to think that I would not have even managed to get to 25nl by the end of the month, nevermind make the nut, and even in that case I'm just making my nut and starting all over, and this further requires that I assume that I run not terribly at any point, which is really a fool's wager.

And so today I played micro 180s with a buyin of equal or less than $ 4.4 and I lost an average of 27.71 chips per hand.

Assume an average bb size of 100, mean median mode all pretty much agree with this.

My cEV for the 2057 hands was 5122.07. In turn, my expected result per hand can cautiously be interpreted to be 2.49 chips per hand. Sample size is an issue here, of course.

My actual EV bb/100 for 2057 hands was 12.36, clustered around the lower bb levels of course. This serves to imply that my true EV bb/100 is somewhere in between the two figures.

My realized bb/100 for 2057 hands was -0.48.

At an average bb size of 100, my linear count expectation of 2.49 chips per hand, a fairly strong though mildly sensitive figure, this constitutes an average expected gain gain of 249 chips per 100 hands, or 2.49 bb/100.

Start playing around with the numbers between 2.49 and 12.36 and we see an average maximal loss in bet count in the range of 430-520 , assuming that we are bounded by a Z-Score of 3 in trials. I have no reason to go below the expected figure of 2.49 bb/100 for this sample of 2057 hands because I have access to the remainder of my tournament data as it relates to tournament hand performance over a reasonably large sample.

And so at a true bb of 2.49-8 we see an expected maximal loss in the range of 500 with reasonable error bars over a sample size of 2057 hands.

Given that I am more present, more focused, and more skilled (or better able to make use of my skill) in my present condition than for the majority of my poker playing history, as evidenced by my ability to make this post, let's give me a true winrate in tourney chips of 3.8 bb/100, which I do not consider to be at all unreasonable given my historical per hand performance and ROI in all MTT formats over the course of my lifetime, which of course includes the past year. Even accounting for the past year, my lifetime ROI in MTT formats is comfortably in excess of 100. The SD of around 40 sounds pretty much spot on, I don't even need to check it. I plug it into the Z-Score of 3 bounded simulator which can be found here and instruct it to run it 1000x and I do it over and over and over.

At an average bb size of 100, I lost 57000 tournament chips for loss of 570 bets. Assume that there is no drop off in the quality of my play as the blind levels increase. In fact, I have traditionally excelled in late tournament situations, basically winning the tournament whenever I get ahold of any sizable number of chips. A performance far in excess of ICM interpretation, and in these games, I can take it as a given that I will outperform my opponents to a massive degree at every stage of play.

Give me a true winrate of 3 and I'm still in excess of a Z-Score of 3 by any reasonable statistical measure. OK, let's start to tinker with the average bb size. Still > 3, or at most spot on 3. Give me a true winrate in the range of 6 and the same applies. In order for me to exceed that Z-Score, my true bb/100 in MTT formats must be well in excess of 8.

I believe that as I played today and given the relative quality of my opponents' play, I exceeded the level of quality of play required to achieve that winrate.

Incidentally a loss of 570 adjusted bets, a very highly reasonable and robust figure in my view, amounts to a Z-Score comfortably in excess of 3 standard deviations given 1000 trials with a SD of 39.58. I ran the trials over and over and returned a similar result every time. In order for my loss to not be in excess of a Z-Score of 3 as evaluated in terms of basic statistics, I must be both the worst latestage MTT player in the world, and also the best early stage MTT player in the world. This fails the laugh test.

Now let's look at longest breakeven probability. Again, this tends to cap out at around 2000 hands, and given how latestage MTT goes (basically well or, uh, not) it's not really worth much over 2057 hands. Even so, again, I'm right around a Z-Score of 3 and even slightly in excess of it. Given that I'm going to be winning chips early, winning chips midstage, and winning chips late, and winning tournaments, I tend to believe the Z-Score on this too. Tell me how I'm wrong please if you are reading this and are of the inclination to disagree.

Additionaly consider that I didn't actually get to the endgame, which is where the real money is made. Adjust for that, and my cEV performance and my lack of opportunity to even have an opportunity to take in 30% of the prizepool and the actuality of my losing 570 adjusted bets becomes ... frankly startling to me.

All of this happened exactly today, which is also the day on which I have realized all of myself, and on the day that I consider myself to have played the best tournament poker that I have ever played in my life. Any way that you want to twist the data, it still comes out with the same Z-Score, or even larger, and this manifests itself in multiple terms.

Give me an ROI of >180%, for instance as accounted for by the impossible softness of the games and any reasonable cEV winrate and consistent form throughout, and then play 37 games, and return an ROI of -88%.

Give me an ITM of ~14 and then take me 25 games before my first cash, which was a mincash, and then give me another mincash at game 35.

-35 buyins for the day.

4.52 in the roll.

And so I'm going to see about getting my old job back tomorrow, a job that I must admit to find rather boring (but do really enjoy enough to not feel that it's a waste of my time), because when I work there I'm helping to keep people safe and teaching and helping others, and as I write this I must further admit that I am very seriously considering never playing on stars again. Except for the freerolls and the quarterly millions. I may have developed major negative feelings towards the site as a result of my experience today but I'm not stupid.

http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/1051/30407675.jpg

http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/9752/64491817.jpg

http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/4461/bellcurve500.jpg



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Downswings own you.


(or me at least).


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They are about 1400 people short of the guaranteed atm, so I'd consider playing the wcoop 530, if anyone will take about 200-300$ of the action. It started at 17:00 ET

PM or write in comments if you're intested


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http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/5382/graphrl.png
http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/9899/allstats.png

I finally standardized my play somewhat, using positional PF raise sizing and 100% Raise 1st on button vs regs and 50% on CO, I was even able to 9 table today for a couple hours with ease...good stuff.
I still got tilted a lot, but I never went on my usual rampage as the stress from work is gone, and I calmed myself down by a 5 min breathing break or simply took a nap and kept on rocking afterwards.

£2k means I am taking a 2-3 BI shot at NL100, as I want to avoid playing over rolled at NL50 for some bullshit reasons like in the past (I was scared of my tilts). I am a pro, there are no excuses now.

I also unfortunately made a Goldstar at Stars in those 8 days, so I just can't imagine I'd leave this wretched site now. I tried merge and ipoker, but my PC is so slow and the software tilts me so badly I can't play more than 2 tables at that bullshit (especially w/o tableninja).



P.S. Lol, look at TL nerds:
http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=152273
(I knew I wouldn't get a response here ;o)



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i like this book alot and i think that you'd like it too and so, bam, here it is.

it's about a guy who lives in the future. he's a master of games, in all forms. board games, card games, games of both complete and incomplete information. he lives an idyllic life, in which he socializes and fucks and is adored and respected by millions. he wants for nothing.

and then he hears about a game that is so big, so strong, and so challenging so as to defy all reasonable efforts at convenient categorization. he travels out across the stars, just to play it in the place where it is played.

stuff happens.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Player-of-G...&s=digital-text&qid=1284306706&sr=8-5

kindle

http://www.amazon.com/Player-Games-Ia...ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1284306706&sr=8-1

paperback

if you like it i got more that i think that you'll like seeing and hearing and reading and so let me know if you enjoyed it via pm. the feedback will let me know if this is or isn't a waste of my time. i suspect that it may be a minor waste of time, but if i actually notice a sizable number in my affiliate account at some point i may continue.


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Hit the 40k VPP mark for the year and I'm halfway to 50k. I'm very happy about my progress considering I have not been trying very hard for the past couple weeks. I was slightly up at the $60 and $38 STT's following my BOP win, when my new laptop died in the middle of a session, and as a result of not being able to get back online, suddenly I was down, and my $55+5 ROI on SharkScope jumped into the negative. I guess I could have switched to my other computer, but I was putting all my eggs into the basket of trying to get the new laptop back up and running, and I failed. Waiting on a cashout to get that compy fixed so I can return to the SNG grind. (One of my Asperger traits is that disruption of my routine and expectations throws me off, enough so that I don't want to grind/practice, and the nonfunctioning status of stuff which I normally depend on qualifies as such.)

In the meantime I've been splashing around in various games. Took a couple shots at WCOOP events. Got close to the money in the 8-game $100k. I also joined bluefirepoker and I'm studying hard to improve my game. Listening to Galfond, Senti, and Kirkre think through their hands out loud as been a huge help to me in actually having a thought process for estimating my opponent's range. I tend to play based on a set of memorized patterns and general principles, which is acceptable for STT's, but leaves me totally adrift and doing strange things in other games. Also when I play cash games now, I am playing fewer tables (2 for stud and mixed games, 4 for hold 'em), and I'm focusing on 6-max, so I can give every hand the thought process it deserves if necessary. I had a marathon overnight session playing 6-max 1/2 NL where I got antsy from constantly table selecting, and I ended up just joining a ton of them. Really bad idea for the approach I want to take to the game now: I want to play very very well all the time and improve. I did win several buy-ins, but I ran insanely well, winning all my 14-15 out hands, and not getting sucked out on when I had a big hand. I think if I had run at expectation, I would have been down a shitpile.

I finally got the info for my bank which I needed to cash out via wire transfer, and cashed out down to 6k and change. While part of the reason is that I'll put the money to good use IRL, also, I'd like my roll not to be so large in comparison to the stakes I play that the money doesn't feel meaningful.

Now when I am grinding, I will be mass multitabling $38 and $60 STT's, and I will also work on my cash game, sometimes 2-tabling .50/$1 8-game and sometimes 4-tabling .50/$1 6-max NLHE. I know that's super nitty, but I don't feel a lot of pressure to make a lot of money right now, so I am going to do my best to study and improve my game. I know I can probably beat 1/2 when I am focused, but again I don't feel pressure to go for the glory, nor do I want to be aggro with my bankroll any more. I will just focus on making fundamentally sound decisions at .50/1 for now. I'll also be playing $40 tourneys at the Bike.

Meanwhile, the fall semester just began at my local junior college, and I am taking two classes: accompanying and applied piano (the latter basically means private lessons). In case any of you know anything about classical music, I am accompanying a friend, an excellent violist, in Hindemith's viola sonata, and my solo repertoire is not yet established. I think I will be preparing the Schumann concerto for a competition next semester, and probably focus on romantic and modern repertoire, so something like Prokofiev's sonata no. 7 in B-flat. As I'm no longer planning on pursuing attending university in the short term, I no longer need to prepare a bunch of stuff that doesn't interest me in order to fit into the box that universities want to put you in. (I.e., everyone has to play a Bach fugue, a Beethoven sonata, and one piece from one of the two later periods.)

If any other developing midstakes player on LP is in the LA area and serious about your game, I would be interested in possibly meeting up on a semi-regular basis and talking about poker and the poker life, especially if you can play at the Bike from time to time, although a pure online player would be cool too. Send me a PM if so.

Oh, I want to play the rebuy at Hollywood Park on Fridays, but I never get going in time. I have trouble getting places on time in general. If anyone reading this is busto or playing micro stakes, I would ship you like $10 on Stars every Friday morning to call me and berate me for running late, and to get my lazy ass down to Inglewood and get my share of the free money that is floating around that ghetto poker room. Or you could take 1% of my winnings in the tourney. Whichever you'd prefer ($10 is a strong favorite to be the better deal).


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Selling %% of WCOOP again. Planning to play the $2159 9max at least, and possibly the $530 if I can sell enough, as well as the $215 4max on monday.

Looking to sell about (50-60% of the $215) and 60-80% of the $530.

Tournaments accomplishment so far:

3 deep runs in the 3+r on stars
47th wcoop 320$ 6max for 2,3k
36,32, 18th in the warmup
won 2 20$ 180man tourneys for 1k each and a 36$ for 1,7k
won a 11$ deepstack tourney for 2,9k
won a $55 DNG on stars for 21k

PM or write in comments if you're interested

EDIT: Sold 62% of the 215. Now looking only to sell %% of the $530. Will play if I sell 60% or more.

215$ 9max sunday 13:00 ET:
25% exalted
20% to max
10% Fujikura
7% danycbd

530$ 9max sunday 17:00 ET:

215$ 4max monday 14:00 ET:
25% Twisted
20% max
10% Fujikura






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I figured my blog has been absent of pics for some time now so here goes a bunch of pics of me + the family and how awesome we are.

July:

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...24302_68135317_43575684_2598367_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...34282_68135317_43575686_2199532_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...09802_68135317_43771089_7935205_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...19782_68135317_43771091_4017863_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...44732_68135317_43771096_2821784_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...49522_68135317_43771099_4651895_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...42482_68135317_43899064_5844379_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...35482_68135317_43970571_4471856_n.jpg

August:

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...83422_68135317_44047429_7331143_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...08572_68135317_44047414_2352014_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...63462_68135317_44047425_3001965_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...03382_68135317_44047433_5732672_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...233322_68135317_44047439_731689_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...59552_68135317_44269098_2637615_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...29102_68135317_44479170_1241276_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...28902_68135317_44479173_6582706_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...08342_68135317_44479185_2610344_n.jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...88182_68135317_44479188_7396277_n.jpg

Ok ttyl blog after i win APPT Auckland. G'DAY M8


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17/14 24% raise CB 1.8k hands. we've had quite abit of bvb battles this session.

usually I fold on the flop or maybe call turn and see if they give up, but hit a J here.. although AJ is the same as AA since he usually has a fullhouse or air

fold river right? sometimes regs like to fake 66/77/JJ here..

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22/12 45% fold to cbet(11) 17% raise cbet(11) 306hands.

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16/14 reg. I run 23/20 6%3bet and very high steal

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14/11 53% steal from button, 54% fold to 3bet. I know he's a nit, but I just 3bet him a few hands ago on another table and he 4bet like this. Im pretty aggro BvB and im afraid he might be adapting, is this ever a shove?

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Also a quick question! Do you think it's ever necessary to 4bet bluff BvB? I get 3betted so often by regs BvB because of my high steal%, especially since I like to minraise from button. Do you think its good to 4bet/fold sometimes?

Anyways, today I started trying to fix my red line. Been slowplaying less often, betting IP when checked too more often, less pot control, tyring to make better bluffs.

http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff96/k4ir0s/qqw.jpg


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http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/439/1284235450548s.jpg


some charged per/hour(i wanted profit sharing)
some gave me a boner with beautiful unrealistic arrangements then zero follow ups wtf massive joke or drunk goof whatever
some disappeared from skype,msn,pm
some guy with 1 post gave me gave me his ptrs as reference which had huge losses lols another prank i suppose(nice that made he laugh at least)

it's all good though, some made me laugh other just saddened me, made me realize this poker business is really competitive and hard, lots of stuff come up and it's really hard to get any relatively (free)help anymore. this is probably the reason why coaching, whether predatory or not, overpriced etc still works. at least these guys are around all the time.

back to 50nl i guess haha. np
i can really probably rely on myself - FOREVER ALONE lol


Comments (3)       read entire blog

Still going strong, sick volume, running like shit but still winning. Fwiw these things prob have something like 30-40 hands in avg, so in a 168sngs day like this its 5k-7k hands in a day, 4 tabling. Sick!

http://img375.imageshack.us/img375/7201/day3.png

Fun hands:
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took down the 3$ rebuy on ap lewlz

http://www.liquidpoker.net/user_pictures/9e93096a9d87923c757b2d22813e7547.jpg


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I would like to know the name and place of some good computer science schools @ united states please

edit: I also would like to know how much it cost/year


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15 little steps are all that I need to take. From this starting point, all that I have to do is take 15 steps. I have to take them on my own, to fight for and win every inch of ground that I take and to place my flag upon it. My starting point is secure; I am no longer in any form of danger at my starting stake. My mind is clear, and my play is strong, and that which drives my play is singularly unique and vibrant and there is nothing else quite like it on this earth. I fear nothing, yet can be impeccably technical in craft, and I can reach out and possess the mind of the other, no matter what form it takes, and so I can manipulate him in all forms, as I maintain no shape for him to grasp and hold no pattern for him to identify, all the while as I take sheer delight in the moment as I vanquish him remorselessly. And so all that I need to do is to take 15 Steps. And this time I'll do it without the shear drop.


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I have no clue, but I really grew to, and still do, love the game of poker. However, the game is causing me way too much stress as of late.

I am unsure of really how to explain it. As of the beginning of the summer, I was playing a worst game than I am now, at least in my opinion. After some bad sessions, which really was my own doing, I stopped playing for about a month, and began cashing out.

When I came back, I still had plenty to keep playing. However, I have just not been able to win at all. I even moved back down to NL10, which I am now losing multiple buy-ins at. After a couple of months of trying, I have lost over half of my remaining roll, and am just completely deflated. I have definitely not been running the greatest, but my PT3 graph is showing that I am not even above EV, so I am assuming it is my play that is just awful.

Game is causing me way too much stress, which oddly enough I do not get stressed about anything else at all in my life. I have decided to, as of now, to cash out the remaining bit of my roll and am going to stop for at least a while.

Thanks for everyone that helped me, such as milkman, thumbz, etc. I will probly be back, but I will have to figure out some way to cease being completely awful at this game first.

Now to decide if I should continue reading LP every day or not?


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