What do u think? Heuristics/Biasby Night2o1, January 14
YO SONS
I am not sure if this is an article, a speech, or a casual essay. What do u guys think of it?
Heuristics And Bias of The Mind
Have you ever had to read a long text that simply didn't pique your interest? We've all tried to get it over with in one long session, just reading and reading.. Until suddenly realizing, “Hey, I've read the past two paragraphs but have no idea what they said.”
Let me be the first to welcome you to the enormous field of research in mental heuristics (or shortcuts), dedicated to uncovering the what's and how's of which actions the mind performs outside of awareness – reading in this case – and how these mental shortcuts can lead us astray, causing biases in everyday decisions big and small. If some part of your mind can automatically, effortlessly read, what else is it doing without your knowing?
Research has shown that mental heuristics are universal among all peoples, and those in the field have come to describe automatic thought, which happens constantly and outside of awareness, as the work of System 1. Effortful thinking on the other hand is the domain of System 2. For instance, finding the solution to a difficult math problem is done by the deliberate and logical operations of System 2. The steps taken toward the solution can be logically followed back and forth. But reading simple words in your native language, or solving 2+2=? is an automatic activity of System 1. Certainly we can't afford to think through every single thing we do, nor do we always have the time to, so when does System 1 benefit us and when does it mislead or influence System 2 without our even recognizing it?
Imagine yourself in the kitchen preparing a meal when a sharp knife is accidentally knocked from the counter. In what may be called instinct, the mind immediately asks and answers several questions, “What object fell? Should I catch it or move away? Where should I move to avoid danger(back, forward, left, right)?” then sends the appropriate commands to your limbs. You've already moved, the knife having clattered harmlessly to the floor. System 1 worked it out quickly, effectively, and decisively – you didn't have time for conscious thought. But what if a pot of boiling water was balancing on the counter behind your left elbow? Depending on the urgency (or if you usually have a pot of boiling water there) it is possible that System 1 wouldn't take the boiling water into account, at which point you're in a world of hurt.
“Surely, I wouldn't be so foolish as to place a pot of boiling water on the edge of a counter!” But System 1 heuristics extend beyond the home kitchen, an environment under your control. Read the following sentence,
“Which fast food restaurant...”
It is likely that the name McDonalds popped into mind over any of the other myriad fast food restaurants in town. Why? Does McDonalds serve the tastiest french fries or burgers, the healthiest or highest quality food, are they even your favorite fast food joint? Probably not. Yet the name is so prominent that System 1 brings it into consciousness when the words “fast food” are uttered. Their marketing has embedded the brand into your and the public's mind, knowing that research has demonstrated that when a consumer has a choice between a familiar name and an unknown, they are likely to choose the familiar. System 1 recognizes McDonalds and feels safer; System 2 is lazy, often adopting the first's suggestion without question. If this unconscious bias towards familiarity is universal. Then what other, more important decisions, are effected by thoughts of which we are unaware even occurred?
The study of mental heuristics and the bias they cause was pioneered by Amos Tversky, PhD and Daniel Kahneman, PhD over twenty five years ago. Since that time the field has become a full blown avenue of research within the field of psychology while the research coming out of it has transformed the way we think about such diverse fields as economics, management, marketing, and more. Systematic bias in Systems 1 and the way they effect System 2 are part of the very basis of what it means to think; therefore past and ongoing research in the field is relevant to every single form of human inquiry. While here we've only just begun to scratch the surface of what is already known, we all have much left to learn; I expect you'll come along for the ride.
I have decided to go for sales, pretty much it's a mix between talking to people where I can use the psychology stuff I studied. I worked in finance in a large dull corporation before and it was well... all that the phrase office drone means and this is just so much better on paper (although hard work).
But also It's good for the bottom line and sick fast progression if you work like a madman (going to Managing director with your own branch in 1-2 years is pretty common)
I already got accepted to a purely commission based marketing company that sells broadband door to door and got 2 days long interview and a long phone call for a sick good Norwegian tech company that started 10 years ago and creates software as a service analysis of news, social networks and some other stuff.
Fingers crossed innit; the second one is pretty much flawless and they put a lot of emphasis on fun, and if I want I can point at a country and pretty much go there as they are all over the world and the Edinburgh office has Norwegians, Russians, Canadians and have a sick good portfolio like HP Coca Cola Gucci etc...
Although going into the wild and selling door to door and chatting with so many random people would be just a great thing for social skills and for getting better at chatting up the ladies, I wouldn't mind it either. I had a full day experience and you really meet some weirdos but in general people in Scotland are really friendly to sales people.
Tell me what you think guys. I will put poker on hold for now, especially in the first couple of months when I will need to learn the ropes and get into management and build proper capital ASAP. I got £3k student debt and I want that gone and then put some money into a roll to play on the side, at limits I should be playing if I didn't cash out - NL50-NL100.
So I'm thinkin about Costa Rica as my next grind station as my 6 months in Canada are nearly over. Does anyone have experience with this? And if so How are the key components such as: Internet connection? (how fast, stable) Secure banking/online banking methods, and housing? (prices availability etc)
Thanks a lot for any input. If you know anyone that knows anything about this tell me as well ^^
I'm in the middle of a Macau trip with the girlfriend. Poker-wise, the trip has been a little rough - I took a shot at 100/200 HKD, the table became a "must-move", became 3handed, and I lost a huge AQo vs TT allin pre. Besides that I've been playing well so nothing to really complain about. We've been playing at the Wynn, which is pretty cool as it's packed with high-stakes tables; I really need to get my act (bankroll) together and enter that arena. I saw Johnny Chan (@300/600) and heard that Ivey and Antonius are at the nearby Starworld playing nosebleeds. Not so much a fan of Ivey after hearing his exorbitant/mo salary at FTP but will maybe check it out.
Outside of poker, Anna went bungy jumping off the Macau Tower, the world's highest jump. I didn't participate but will probably be forced into it the next time she jumps. She really enjoyed it and is uploading the vid to Youtube, so I'll have her blog about it. Took her to Morton's which was pretty nice. Now she has a constant craving for crab cakes! That's about it for now - will post pics when we get back to Taiwan.
My sickest and longest session ever.by UnitedAs1, January 12
So I wake around 8am watch a bit of tv and eat something. Then around 9-10am i start the grind, I played 1 session didn't go that well ran kinda bad but who cares about that I finished like $800 down. I take a break and go play the playstation and get something to eat.
Then around 5pm I get back on it to try and at least break even, well things went really bad. I managed to lose another 2.2k making a total of 3k after 10k hands or so. Now being me I don't like losing a dime in any session so I continue to grind. I felt pretty good I wasn't tilted and so I decided to play some HUPLO (this is where I think I play my best game) as I was way ahead of VPP pace now,
Anyway I get some tables up, 2 people 2 tabling me and they both ran like the sun I think I dropped another 2k making a total of 5k. 1 of them just hit and ran me and the other stayed and that's when things started to turn around. I won about 1k off the guy who stayed with me and won another 1.5k off other people.
Then me and this other guy played about 650 hands and I managed to win 2.5k off him making me get back to even/small winner. The thing is I didn't even know I was 5k down at 1 point if I knew that I would of probably stopped and gone on life tilt :D.
So now I’m ahead of pace currently at 43vpps and I’m probably going to take tomorrow (well it’s actually today) and Saturday off and come back refreshed for a Sunday grind. I wish I could get SNE just through HUPLO would be so much better but I don’t fancy playing super long sessions like today because I don’t think I earn enough VPPs.
So 11 days into the SNE grind and still on pace, I haven't yet dropped the ball and fell behind yet so lets hope I can keep that going. This week has been really busy played 7 games of football in a week and played a couple of rounds of golf and done my a couple of driving lessons. I wish I never played that many football matches cause my back is killing me now .
Anyway today was a stupid day I was doing really good then happy hour came on stars and managed to drop a lot of buyins, I was just happy to come out of the session 1 buyin up. I do feel reasonably confident with my PLO game at the moment, 1 thing I would say is that I too loose in the blinds which is costing me.
Here is the graph...Guess when happy hour came? :D
My Birthday + Milestone Complete!!by wobbly_au, January 11
Its my 26th birday today, very very big things coming up. My girlfriend is arriving in Sydney from China to visit me and spend both her and my birthday together (Yes we are born on the same day although she is 6 years younger than me!). Then I am scooting off on a 2week golf vacation with my good friends, girlfriend and sister!
On October 16th 2011 I weighed 84.7kg whilst only being 173cm so that my friend is really fat as you can imagine. Now the weird thing is I've never really cared about the fat jokes or felt at all insecure and I think the reason for that is I felt I was overachiever in every other aspect in life anyway.
I thought to my self; 4 years ago I was a broke student with less than $1000 in savings now I own an apartment and still have more than 7 figures banked. I've come along way success wise, but my health has suffered immensely as a result.
So I decided to just become the perfect being. The epitome of a young balla, I started with 3km runs on day 1 but by about the 30th day I had already increased my run to 10km.
I planned my calorie intake everyday (set at 1300) and planned my cardio and strength training to burn atleast 800 calories. I did this by rotating between a 2km swim or a 10km run or a round of golf. With an addition of 80 situps and 60 push ups daily.
There were days where every atom in my body wanted to give up and take a day off but I persevered.
I remember one day super clearly. It was towards the end of December and I had been sick with a slight fever and was playing poker since 10am till 2am. Thats 16 hours of continous grind. I was also down about $30,000 but the fish logged off so I was done. Really wanted to eat something warm then shower and sleep but I hadn't done my run yet! Oh shitt..... No pain no gain I thought. So I put my shoes on, did the laces up and went down stairs. Then I finally realised what all the noises were, there was a monster storm, thunder and lightining everywhere. I still went for it, I told myself this is how people succeeded and there was no way I would accept failure. That day I ran 10km, the rain completely soaked my clothes and shoes. With rain and sweat dripping down my face I couldn't even see where I was going, but I ran and ran and when I was finally done I felt like a champion..
Today, on my birthday the 12 of Jan 2012 I weigh 69.8kg thats 14.9kgs lost in just under 3 months.
Travels! Any Madrid/SA ppl here?by Ket, January 10
Hi guys. Happy 2012! Let's achieve our goals this year!
So earlier today I booked a last minute trip for 3 weeks from next week because why not. I'm headed towards South America and am gonna meet up with a small group of close mates that already out there, including my housemate Tom who prob needs no introduction on here. Pretty excited for the trip, here's my rough itinerary:
- Tues 17 Jan fly from London in the morning to Madrid. It's a connecting flight to Buenos Aires but I did it in such a way that I should have a day to quickly check out Madrid. Are there any LPers in Madrid who wanna meet up for dinner/a beer/show me around a bit next Tuesday? That would be awesome if so! Pls msg me asap!
- ????????????? from Jan 24th to Jan 28th. Haven't decided yet. My friends are going to Rurrenabaque to mess about in a jungle. As I hate bugs I think I would enjoy that about as much as Karl Pilkington did on An Idiot Abroad. I may just suck it up and join them for the experience and to say I did it. Open to any suggestions, anything unmissable? Next stop is in Peru so was considering Lima on the shortlist for this slot of time, any LPers in Lima who wanna show me around? locoo is that where u are?
- Get to Cusco, Peru on 29th. Check out the sights there for a couple of days, acclimatise to the altitude a bit. Then a 4 day jungle route (ffs no bugs plz) to Machu Picchu including downhill biking, rafting, 2 days trekking and last day hike up to MP itself. Looking really forward to this except for bugs. One rest day in Cusco after this before...
Would love as much feedback as I can get about any part of any of this. For example, what can you do in half a day in Madrid? What shouldn't we miss in Buenos Aires? What are some things I should consider doing to fill in "??????????"?
Ron Paul Celebrates Historic Second Place Win in New Hampshire Primary
"We urge Ron Paul's opponents who have been unsuccessfully trying to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney to unite by getting out of the race and uniting behind Paul's candidacy."
Read more here http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ron-...n-in-new-hampshire-primary-2012-01-10
Right before the end of 2011 I went on a 6 day trip, 2 To Jamaica, and then went to St Maarten for 4 days, I planned on playing poker some but had to finish the last 20k VPP when i got home because bad internet connection. St Maarten is awesome, cool locals, good food, lots of activities, Ziplining 1000 feet in the air, windsurfing, parachuteing, French and Dutch side and kind of affordable to live as some places had 500/month for all inclusive. The internet was kind of slow but to be expected when living in hotels. I found some reliable internet providers having service at 1000kbs(is that fast enough to run multiple 24 tablers off a single connection?) Anyways its an attractive to place to live as poker plaer, and I am highly considering moving back. Anyone ever considered places like this? seem to be a good alternative to the Thailand type destinations many poker players find themselves in.
just wanna share some updates on my progress. Was feeling good about my game last couple months, but now when I checked my HEM to make some screenshots, I can see I still suck.
Put in very little volume since last update, but was dealing with some rl stuff, moved twice since november, my main desktop comp died + working 40hrs/week in my job. But now everything is sorted and I already started grinding volume/hours I am happy with.
I feel like I improved my game a notch since last update, much love to everyone commenting on my hands, especially Talented Tom and other midstakes+ ballers. So good for my game & confidence.
I am than not afraid to try knew things - when I know it was a good spot for triple barrel or calldown - I dont get mad when I lose the pot and can keep on grinding my a-game. + it feels rly good to own other regs when I have good idea about their range and can outplay them. Doesn't happen often //
Tryin to focus more on fish tho - trying to play lots of pots with them - adjusting my opening/flatting/squeezin/iso ranges to table conditions - e.g. when fish is in the blinds, my opening ranges widens significantly from every position.
I have often the most laggy stats from all regs at the table when I have some huge mark on my right. Quite sure I am spewing a ton as well, as I am getting into lots of marginal spots, but many times I managed to stack the mark before the other regs did.
Feel like I improved my sense for gameflow - I can tell when regs start to be fed up w me constantly isoing mark at the table and I think I have an edge on most of them in preflop reraising game (e.g. when I see the crappy hands they are tryin to outplay me with, bet sizing tells,.. basically looking for what I was doing wrong like 1/2 year ago))
Still lost in TONS of spots tho - usually playing oop marginal made hands and/or playing w/o initiative.
Thats all for now, will add some pics and maybe more random rambling laters.
Lost about 10 k over the course of the month... I am not at all surprised although I have been a bit discouraged lately... I ran like god for a few months so I suppose it was inevitable to go on a down swing... I decided to drop down to 24 and 3 6 for a few thousand hands and enjoyed the wonderful fun of busting even and losing piles of huge plus ev spots... O well thats Omaha and not alot you can do about it
Over all I am very happy with my year in general and will be putting alot of time into my business in 2012.
If there is interest I may post as far as I have gotten in my business plan and see if anyone can post comments or info maybe some suggestions on how I can improve it as I am relativly new to the process :D
You think it's a good idea to start to dabble in Hero Poker now that the road towards regulating Poker in the U.S. is on the upswing? I just want another source of income while I start my personal training career as a part-time trainer. It's either part time as a personal trainer and working as a waiter at a restaurant I used to work at, or part time personal training and grinding the nl25-nl100 range. I'm all rusty from not playing ever since Pokerstars got shut down in the U.S. , but my thought processes are still probably decent enough to herp derp the 25nl-100nl.
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