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When I first saw this hand I immediately thought it was the worst call I had ever seen. However, the more I think about it the more interesting the hand gets. For those of you who havent seen or heard about this hand, it came up in the monte carlo tournament a few days ago. Here was the spot:

Patrick Antonius makes it 1k from the cutoff. Adam makes it 3.2k from the button and Antonius makes it 9k. Adam calls. Flop: Qc 2s 4c Patrick moves in for 34.5k. The break has just happened, but a crowd is developing around the table as only the two players remain seated. Adam keeps staring intently at Patrick, checking his chips, it'll cost most of his stack to call. Patrick sits impassively. Finally, eyes still focused on Patrick, Adam pushes the 34.5k into the pot, and Patrick visibly loses the colour out of his face as he flips over 3c 5s . Adam turns over first the Ac, then....the Jd ! Everyone including Patrick manages a double take. I hear people shocked, yet still somehow impressed at the call. Turn: 8s River: As Patrik raked a ~90k pot with a straight.

So as I said it came off as a bad call at first. I did a quick analysis on how adam does against a sample hand range of patrik's.

We are getting roughly 1.5:1 odds but a little bit better, so lets say we need 39% equity.

If we assume that patrik has air here 20%, a draw (clubs, gutshot, oesd etc) 30% and a monster (set/AA/KK) 50% then we get the following.

Suppose against air that Junglen has on average 75% equity. This fair because if patrik has 2 live cards hes about 25% and sometimes he has adam dominated (AK), sometimes adam has patrik dominated. but I have trouble beliving that patrik will often just shove hands like 68o where he missed completely, so i think 20% of the time is a generous estimate here.

Now, against a draw, lets say that adam has 50% equity on average. This is also fair because some big draws are more than 50% vs adam(like 56cc) and some gutshots are a bit under.

And against a monster, lets say adam has on average 8% equity. sometimes he will have a little more if patrik has KK, sometimes he will be murdered against a set, sometimes patrik will have AQ, whatever, 7% is fairly accurate.

ok, now his ev given these assumptions is .2*.75+.3*.5+.5*.08=.15+.15+.04=.34
34% equity. This is not good, in fact its quite -EV. If we adjust the hand range a bit to include more air and less monsters perhaps we can convince ourselves that adam has CLOSE to enough quity against patrik's range. (this would require a very very very good read because adam is getting very bad odds and patrik will often show a good hand here)

Now, let's backstep a bit before i continue.


I think the call preflop is terrible. Here is adam's quote on the situation, right after it happened:

His range for 3-betting preflop is so wide...When I called the 6k extra I was trapping. I don't care, I've played 10k comps before, his move in was a scared bet, I'd have probably called with King high.

how exactly do you trap with AJo? you dont hit flops often enough and when you dont you arent even certain of where you stand. It's a total reverse implied odds situation. I think that the call preflop is atrocious, and if he really thought his range was that wide, he should shove. he would be risking roughly 41k to win 14k, and he gets folds more than enough to make this a very good play (much much much more EV than calling here even though he has position). I wont bother running the EV calculations but I assure you this is very +EV if patrik is calling with say AA KK QQ JJ AK and is putting in a 3rd raise about 10% of the time (which would mean he is calling 1/3 the time and folding 2/3 the time). Ok, just for you guys ill run the damn EV calculation

Let's say that patrik calls the all in 33% and folds 67%. when he calls, AJo has 25% equity against that range.

.67*14=9.38 (when he folds we win 14k)
.33*(.75*-41+.25*48)=.33*(-30.75+12)=.33*-18.75=-6.25

so our EV of shoving here is over 3k. very very good.

I'll also add in that folding to this 4bet is just fine as well. Nothing wrong with it, havent risked a lot, AJo isnt all that strong. And it's also ok toflat cal with AJo in position here.


ok, back to where i was. now, suppose that we can convince ourselves that Adam almost has enough equity against patrik's range but it is still -EV to call. I think if we have a good enough read to convince ourselves of this it becomes a call postflop for the following 3 reasons.

1. we have a chance to knockout the best player in the world
2. we will have a big chip stack which we will be able to take advantage of because....
3. Everyone at the table will utterly fear us.

Imagine how scared the average poker player would be of a guy who just bitched the best player in the world and now has a stack. If he could have a 100k stack after this move, its at a point in the tournament where nobody will fuck with him and he can just run everyone over and build a monster stack in the next few hours. It would have such profitable aftereffects that I think having a slight -EV situation is overcome with ease.

The question becomes how -EV are we willing to go in order to still take this gamble? Unfortunately that isnt quantifiable, but I would guess that its around 35% equity, a little bit higher than I came up with in my EV calculation.

Now, note that I said i was giving patrik a generous range, and I still think that. I just dont see how we can assume he has air or a draw here much more than that, I would usually assume much less, but for the sake of argument i gave adam the benefit of the doubt in his read. perhaps adam was a little more sure of this and could push it into the 35%+ range. Then although it's still a -EV call, i say great move.


Kid's sure got balls to pull something like this. I still think the preflop call is atrocious, but after a lot of thought I have come to appreciate this postflop call. he gets my gold star award for the week, mainly because its the manliest call of all time, he obviously has some Bryan Van Dautsend blood in him to make patrik say matte.

http://www.liquidpoker.net/staff/Daut/goldstar.jpg



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After all the nit comments I elected to play some 1/2 and try to play a looser style. I had about a 25/22 in mind...

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/8601/blog81py8.png

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Cheers,
Chris


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Im just testing something and i wanted to have lot of clicks for my first topic!



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someone trade me for stars money

the official transfer request thread is bullshit gayness


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LOL... Here is my chip stack while I was playing NL at the Bike about a month back.

http://www.liquidpoker.net/staff/JonnyCosMo/LongChips.JPG

Was it good for you too?


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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sho...?Cat=0&Number=9800837&an=&page=0&vc=1

It's a pretty good read, although I dont really grasp how exactly he got his edge % calculation. Basically all you need is a SQL database from your PokerTracker, and then there is some info in that thread that can show you by how much of a % you are beating the game.

Here's an example from Lyric's own database since he beats 5/10 at 1.78% (which is rather good even thou it sounds small). He states: Here is the expected variance for a 1.78% edge over 32K hands. None of these outcomes would be anything but completely ordinary for my edge/skill level. This is pretty sick considering 32K hands is about 10 months of playing live poker full time:

http://donkeytest.com/178_percent_win.jpg

Note: The edge percentage is calculated using the total amount "bet," and but not necessarily put at risk. So it's not accurate in cases where you push all-in for $1,000 and your opponent only has $63 in front of him. In that case you'd still be counted as "risking" $1,000 when in fact you only risked $63. Not perfect, but a pretty fancy guess.

Pretty interesting stuff. So now I'm trying to figure out how I get mine. If you dont know who Lyric is, he's the guy who made DonkeyTest / The Poker IQ Test (http://www.donkeytest.com).


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Monthly Chart:

Today's summary:

Commentary:

Top 3 winners:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/167711 How am I not completely crushing this level again?
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/167712 Tight spot to slow-play, but I felt the King was a relative blank for this villain.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/167713 VALUE VALUE VALUE

Top 3 losers:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/167714 Fuck off.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/167715 Your mother is a crack-loving whore.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/167716 WOOPSIES bad spot to make a move?

Hands of Note:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/167717 MY BUTTON

Ooops I haven't been posting for a while. But I haven't been playing much poker. I've been partying a lot and I spent last 9 days in Poland with my family and hanging out with my friends. I had my biggest drinking night on Friday. I can't remember anything after 11pm. Everything I know comes from what others told me and some vids that my friends recorded with their mobile phones and posted on youtube. I.e. I hooked up with my ex that I haven't seen for like 4 years, I woke up in my bed completely naked etc etc (oh and obviously I got kicked out of the club). Too much stuff to talk about (maybe I'll write a separate post in a few days about that night but I won't post the vids cause they're in Polish anyway so no one would understand what I was saying and this is almost the only funny thing in these vids).

Right now I'm on the Warsaw airport, waiting for my plane to Manchester. I'll be there in the evening and from tommorow on I'm getting back into poker. I really needed this break as I feel I was pretty burned out. Now I feel 100% fresh and ready to pwn bitches on partypoker so wish me best luck. I'm not sure how I ended March in terms of money but I believe I'm up about $1000 but I really played very little.

On 5th May I'm going to pass IELTS exam and if I'll get 6/9 I'll get to the uni for sure. In the end of May/beginning of June I'm going back to Poland for the whole summer and then going back to Manchester for the uni on 20th September or so. I really want to have a lot of fun this summer and play loads of poker, win lots of $$$ and be a balla. My goal is 5/10 before the end of this year and I believe I can do it.

Good luck and the tables and I'll post sth tommorow!


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I’m a whiney bitch. I know it, you guys who read this blog know it and some of my real life friends know it. I just lost a 800 USD playing poker, mostly at NL200 when I tried to move up. I got annoyed, a bit angry and very upset when people started hitting their moneycards vs me and overall I acted very imature and punished some dead things, like a lamp and a wall. It hurt. Anyway, after some consideration I’ve come to the conclusion that we’re all very blessed. I made more then 6k last month. Since I don’t pay any taxes on that I made more then my parents did togheter, and they’re both working full time while I’m studying law full time. Ok, so I hit a bad streak of cards and I lost some of the money I’ve won? Is life unfair? Certainly not! Many of us here are blessed with an ability to make really good money, sometimes crazy money, playing a cardgame on the internet. I hate people who uses the phrase “Think of the children in Africa” or something like that when other people complain, but now I’m starting to feel that it might be somewhat called for. Most people I know are working hard to get some money and such, while I can sit around like a fucktard and make much more money much easier. I’m not an altruist, but sometimes when I get upset I really feel that I should just shut up and be happy for what I’ve got.



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i started at -150 lol
but i managed to work my way up again WOOT
http://www.yoeri.net/zion/maandag.jpg
UPDATE 2

so i ened up at +404 $ in total thats pretty good i think tomorrow i'll b mashing it up at 100 nl i'll try to play max 4-6 tables but i'll prolly end up at 8- 9 T_T

3.5k hands
404$ won
11.7 bb/100


WISH ME LUCK
BIG UP



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So my adventure on NL200 didn't turn out so good. I don't think I played that bad, even if I did some questionable things and made a few bad calls, but I just couldn't stack anyone for my life. Also, I got a few bad beats today and such. It's not that bad, it's like 6 BI down and I was up about 3 before that so totaly I'm only down like 600 USD or something, but it's still annoying.

I'll just go down to NL100 and rebuild. Maybe win like 12 buyins so that I'm at 7k before next try and hopefully it'll help my self esteem a lot too.


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http://img464.imageshack.us/img464/6696/aprilrj9.jpg

weird session today. started out red hot then the deck got cold for a while, but i managed to pick up two donations from a fish; here's one. if anyone can tell me what the fuck he's thinking, i'll be really impressed:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/167562

i was wrapping up the session when i had this beauty:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/167567

at this time this was my only table open as i had already closed out all the others. bizarrely enough, the following hand:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/167568

as evidenced by my shitty calling behind on the turn, this guy's hyper aggressive play tilted me a bit. oh well, it was nice getting payback, even if it was only with my own money.

a strange (but very basic) situation i got myself in today; tips welcome (note its sb vs bb and his stack size):

+ Show Spoiler +

overall i'm happy with the session and i hope the good luck continues.

oh yeah also, i got a job. i'm moving to shenzhen, china, next year, and teaching english.

good luck at the tables


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Greetings dear LP.net members. I'm kNkiDDa.
My poker career started in last year september. Had 50$ free money so i grinded the NL5 / NL10 / NL25 until i had 1K - that was end of september. Then i went to the US until december. Obviously i took a break during that span.

Back in Germany I started playing again on NL50. Hit a bad bad downswing and didn't make any progress BR-wise. Decided to join Cardrunners and took privat lessons with a coach. Since then I am running at around 15BB/100 for my last 33k hands. Skillwise I am killing the NL50 limit. Thanks goes to my coach who opened my eyes and showed me what aggro play really means.

Opened up my game from nitty 13/6/1,5 to 23/21/6 thanks to my coach. Didn't have coaching for like 2 weeks and slowly but surely returning to get nitty. Coach will be back soon.

Before poker i played BW on pretty high level. WC3, too. Around Top 150 Solo ladder on Northrend. I think i can make the transition to poker. And my results for the last 1,5 months speak for themselves. Advancing to NL100 in the next couple of days.

Made a coaching deal with vital myth. He will coach me 6-8h per week for a complete month. There are dozens of leaks in my game that really need fixing until I step up any more Limits. I hope that I will be NL400 by the end of summer or even before that and reach a winrate of 5BB/100 on each limit that I play.

If i hadn't had to cash out because of some f*cking dentist bills and stuff I would already be grinding NL100! Now that i gathered around 25 BIs everythings gonna work out and my killing spree from NL50 will make its transition to the bigger games.
So lets see how the next couple of months will work out.

Those are my results for the last 3 days:
http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/2055/resultwl8.png

Sorry about this chaotic first post. Next ones will be way better.
iDDa.


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i started at -150 losing nut straight vs kkk all in on flop turn 6 river A 6 =O
then i lost aa vs kk making straight
i lost kk vs aj & qq vs k7 2x for 25 $ 25 $
so my start sucked i got back to breakeven then i lost some again aa vs j3 flop q33 3.5$ preflop raise.

then i got a little heater my hands holded got to 230$ +
then i lost kq top 2 vs qqq and now i'll b sleepin gn all & gl tomorrow lets rape it up and pray our hands hold
http://www.yoeri.net/zion/0402.jpg


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I did 3k hands today, and at the end I was only up 1 buy in. After the first 500 hands I got bad beat so bad that I decided that it was time to experiment (I was up two buy ins in the beginning, even with a couple of split pots that would've let me be up 4-5 buy ins...). I ran into a train and was down -2 buy ins so I started experimenting with calling and stuff.

All in all it was an interesting day. I played loose in some spots and tight in others and made some very questionable plays which I'll have to review. Eg. In some instances I'd give up 1/4 of my stack with second or even third pair if I think the guy is on a draw or I'd bet out hard even with second pair if I suspect he is chasing a draw.

Very interesting session... also, In the end I was up 3-4 buy ins on all my tables... which meant I spewed a lot lol


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Fools day...

http://www.liquidpoker.info/h/167275

http://www.liquidpoker.info/h/167270

http://www.liquidpoker.info/h/167264

http://www.liquidpoker.info/h/167256

A few minuts ago i had QQ, a guy called my raise with 53o, and comes two fives on the board...

Damn


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