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I think it's better to c/fold on the flop vs this guy, even if he's a little looser, and you give him a range of 15% or a little higher, your equity on the flop vs his whole range is 40% ish. I also don't think this guy would 3b 77-99, maybe TT, probably just flat, that leaves broadway. And any piece broadway smashes this flop, since you've got the AQ, more likely he's got a better piece of it.
Feels like you're beat, not sure what the timing tell he gave you on the turn was, but I think that's important. He knows you're strong now, and maybe a little worried you'd c/r again, some straights got there, It feels like he's got KK, 2 pair, a set, or something similar, looks like a normal valuebet on the river, small chance it's KQ. |