Ask me anything about finance/investing - Page 8

439 days at your current pace

I'm breaking between session so I thought I'd pose more questions. I'd rather you answer other people's q's first as I'm just passing time.

I did stochastic modeling in a former life and when I would review the underlying rates provided by the company's lead economist, I often was surprised how the worst trials were still not that awful relatively speaking. I think part of the problem was that correlations held relatively constant in the bad scenarios. I would tend to expect correlations to rise towards 1 when the shit hits the fan. Of course it didn't really matter because we were more concerned with frequency and not severity. And at the end of the day in those scenarios, as you said before, WAFA.

Have you read any of Taleb's work (Black Swan, Fooled By Randomness) and have any thoughts on his work? How are his views generally received by your peers in the industry? I've only recently read FBR and did so from a casual poker players standpoint to think about variance.

Sicks, whats your opinion on the use of High-Frequency Trading?

On January 22 2010 06:11 Cray0ns wrote: I'm breaking between session so I thought I'd pose more questions. I'd rather you answer other people's q's first as I'm just passing time. I did stochastic modeling in a former life and when I would review the underlying rates provided by the company's lead economist, I often was surprised how the worst trials were still not that awful relatively speaking. I think part of the problem was that correlations held relatively constant in the bad scenarios. I would tend to expect correlations to rise towards 1 when the shit hits the fan. Of course it didn't really matter because we were more concerned with frequency and not severity. And at the end of the day in those scenarios, as you said before, WAFA. Have you read any of Taleb's work (Black Swan, Fooled By Randomness) and have any thoughts on his work? How are his views generally received by your peers in the industry? I've only recently read FBR and did so from a casual poker players standpoint to think about variance.

I think Taleb is a very smart guy and I definitely think the left side of the tail is under appreciated and thicker than most people think. I think post 2008-2009, he is much more appreciated by my peers and bosses, but I suspect that will fade with time. In my experience 3k+ posters on LP have a better understanding of variance and its manifestation at both tails than most professional money managers.

On January 24 2010 18:50 brandlor wrote: Sicks, whats your opinion on the use of High-Frequency Trading?

I don't think there is anything wrong with it in theory. In practice it involves using (briefly) non-public information, such as peeking in on orders to beat markets, which is in my mind just another form of insider trading.

Great thread!
thanks a lot sick macks

Sicks Macks
favorite all time investor/trader businessman?


mine is

The DTCC is _________

fill in the blank

the coolest

On January 25 2010 07:17 Currency wrote: Sicks Macks favorite all time investor/trader businessman? mine is

hmmm, I don't know. Kind of an easy answer but I'll probably go with Warren Buffett. "The Warren Buffett Way" really influenced me as a young kid.

On January 28 2010 11:46 YoBaNaNaBoY wrote: The DTCC is _________ fill in the blank

The DTCC is: something I had to look up on Wikipedia, . I'm not a trader and I'm kind of retarded with that stuff.

k lets get you unretarded

http://stockguy22.com/articles/poker-trading/