Ask me anything about finance/investing - Page 3

this is prob an awesome opportunity to get info but i don't know two shits about this stuff enough to even as an intelligent question

gonna favorite this thread and come back to it when i have time to read it in full.


if i wanted one, how easy would it be for me to find a job in a hedge fund? i have a double major in math/comp sci, was in a math phd program before leaving for poker, im well known in poker and seems like the hedge fund guys love poker player mindsets.

i dont have any experience in finance stuff and never took classes in it but i do run one of the premier backing businesses in the world which is high risk high reward type investments.

do you think id have a good shot at getting a solid starting job if i ever needed it? i dont think id ever want to put in those kind of hours into it but if it ever came down to it i guess id like to have a backup plan and one where you can make a good amount of money is a good place to start


and as a 2nd question, what kind of hours did you put in when you started and how many years were you putting in really long hours?

On January 05 2010 21:31 Daut wrote: if i wanted one, how easy would it be for me to find a job in a hedge fund? i have a double major in math/comp sci, was in a math phd program before leaving for poker, im well known in poker and seems like the hedge fund guys love poker player mindsets. i dont have any experience in finance stuff and never took classes in it but i do run one of the premier backing businesses in the world which is high risk high reward type investments. do you think id have a good shot at getting a solid starting job if i ever needed it? i dont think id ever want to put in those kind of hours into it but if it ever came down to it i guess id like to have a backup plan and one where you can make a good amount of money is a good place to start

It's going to be tough to find a job at most hedge funds for a few reasons. First, hedge funds are usually the second step in a finance career after working for a larger fund complex or a bank. Most of them aren't equipped to bring people up to speed on financial stuff even if they're great at math/programming (I'll get to the exceptions). As such, the recruiting process generally works one of two ways: You know someone, or you're in an analyst program elsewhere and get recruited through a headhunter. In short, to even get an interview at most places, you're going to have to know someone, and even then I really think they're going to be skeptical about bringing someone up to speed on accounting/the financial system/financial products, the places just aren't run like that. Slightly better would be to apply to structured analyst programs run by large fund complexes like Fidelity or Capital Group or large investment banks, even then it will be tough just because everyone else is going to be 4.0 Ivy and trained for this stuff. That said there are small subsets of asset management that look explicitly for brilliant math/comp sci/stat minds and would probably go nuts for a guy like you. These jobs require no knowledge of how the financial system works really, it's all numbers. As such, your best bet would be either a really quanty hedge fund complex like DE Shaw (probably better than google as far as work environment, actively recruits non-traditonal backgrounds) or Renaissance Technologies (hedge fund, don't let the name fool you) or the algorithmic trading desks at any I-bank. There are probably many lesser known funds that recruit like this, but I don't come from a math background so I just know of the biggies. Still, other than at Shaw, Ren, and the IBs, even getting someone to see a resume is going to be tough.

On January 05 2010 21:31 Daut wrote: and as a 2nd question, what kind of hours did you put in when you started and how many years were you putting in really long hours?

I got very lucky in two ways: that I came up on the buy-side (professional investors, as opposed to people who create securities and structure transactions, known as the sell-side). The buy-side is notoriously more relaxed, because you're on your boss's schedule, not your client's. I also came up in Boston, where the money management community is largely off-shoots of Fidelity, Harvard Management, Putnam, Wellington, etc. With the exception of Wellington, all are very relaxed, weekends are almost always yours.

So I don't think I've ever averaged more than 60 hours a week since I started, and even that seems high. Of course when something needs to get done I've pulled 8am-4am runs, but I was often just given the next day off. We're nothing like I-bankers, it's much friendlier, and while people work very hard, there is a big emphasis on work-life balance.

To add though: I've made a point of always being available in my career to the people I work for, something that isn't uncommon in finance. I occasionally will pop in the office to check something at 11pm when I'm out drinking and I have told a very nice Rhino girl that I had to go because I needed to run a oil-price scenario through my model on my laptop at the B (she didn't want to come with, ).

Because the value of Yuan is rising so rapidly, a friend of mine who does currency exchange has advised me to convert U.S. dollars to Yuan in hopes of converting it back later for a profit. Do you know anything about this?

On January 05 2010 23:01 Jas0n wrote: Because the value of Yuan is rising so rapidly, a friend of mine who does currency exchange has advised me to convert U.S. dollars to Yuan in hopes of converting it back later for a profit. Do you know anything about this?

This is silly. That the Yuan has risen in the past has no indication on whether it will rise in the future. Currency markets are incredibly liquid and closely watched, new information is quickly incorporated into pricing, so I would guess the chance the Yuan continues to rise against the dollar at about 50/50. Maybe there's a strong analytical reason to buy it, but it's certainly not that it has been rising recently. In fact I am skeptical of anyone who claims to have an edge on the currency markets, they're essentially the finance equivalent of a 5bb SNG with the cards turned face up.

Lol, nice analogy, I will keep that info in mind

On January 05 2010 23:10 Jas0n wrote: Lol, nice analogy, I will keep that info in mind

yeah I mean capital markets have all the positive-variance-attributed-to-skill and everyone-knows-exactly-what-they're-doing aspects as poker, except times 4 billion.

what strategy do you use when trading the stock market?

On January 05 2010 23:07 Sicks Macks wrote: Show nested quote + On January 05 2010 23:01 Jas0n wrote: Because the value of Yuan is rising so rapidly, a friend of mine who does currency exchange has advised me to convert U.S. dollars to Yuan in hopes of converting it back later for a profit. Do you know anything about this? This is silly. That the Yuan has risen in the past has no indication on whether it will rise in the future. Currency markets are incredibly liquid and closely watched, new information is quickly incorporated into pricing, so I would guess the chance the Yuan continues to rise against the dollar at about 50/50. Maybe there's a strong analytical reason to buy it, but it's certainly not that it has been rising recently. In fact I am skeptical of anyone who claims to have an edge on the currency markets, they're essentially the finance equivalent of a 5bb SNG with the cards turned face up.

Funny how when I said the same thing in a previous thread, no one believed me.

On January 06 2010 00:01 TenBagger wrote: Show nested quote + On January 05 2010 23:07 Sicks Macks wrote:   On January 05 2010 23:01 Jas0n wrote: Because the value of Yuan is rising so rapidly, a friend of mine who does currency exchange has advised me to convert U.S. dollars to Yuan in hopes of converting it back later for a profit. Do you know anything about this? This is silly. That the Yuan has risen in the past has no indication on whether it will rise in the future. Currency markets are incredibly liquid and closely watched, new information is quickly incorporated into pricing, so I would guess the chance the Yuan continues to rise against the dollar at about 50/50. Maybe there's a strong analytical reason to buy it, but it's certainly not that it has been rising recently. In fact I am skeptical of anyone who claims to have an edge on the currency markets, they're essentially the finance equivalent of a 5bb SNG with the cards turned face up. Funny how when I said the same thing in a previous thread, no one believed me.

Maybe you needed a poker analogy, lol

On January 06 2010 00:01 DvoBoardRider wrote: what strategy do you use when trading the stock market?

he already said his strategy is fundamental value.

oh ok... too lazy to read the whole trade. sorry about that.

thanks.

Great thread Macks, thanks for the help.

What do you think lies ahead in 2010 and beyond in the wake of the GFC? Are we already making the same mistakes again by taking on so much extra debt to bail out certain companies that maybe should have been left to fold?

What emerging funds represent the best value in your opinion? I've heard a lot about China in particular, but really wouldn't know where to start investing there.

My portfolio is all in the ASX currently, but I'm keen to branch outwards, particularly to a place like China that isn't as overanalysed as the established markets.

Cheers.

How long does it take before you can turn down a 160 million pound salary?

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/markets/...in_article_id=440710&in_page_id=3

On January 06 2010 03:04 PandaSaurus wrote: Great thread Macks, thanks for the help.

np, it's been fun to write.

On January 06 2010 03:04 PandaSaurus wrote: What do you think lies ahead in 2010 and beyond in the wake of the GFC? Are we already making the same mistakes again by taking on so much extra debt to bail out certain companies that maybe should have been left to fold?

I don't think I have any specific skill for predicting macro trends. As I've mentioned before, I think the long term trend towards greater wealth and productive capacity around the world due to increasing productivity of both labor and capital remains intact. Instinctively, I do think quite a bit of moral hazard was created with the bailouts, but frankly I don't think the amount of debt issued has reached a point of saturation until it starts reflecting in the rates sovereign debt investors demand. I think in some emerging countries we've reached that point, in the developed world we really haven't. Hopefully, primary participants in the capital markets have learned their lesson about who to finance (yes to productive assets, no to 3rd mortgages to build hot tubs in Dubai vacation homes), but I'm a little too cynical about people to really believe that. There will always be greed, there will always be bubbles, but generally thinks work out ok in the end.

On January 06 2010 03:04 PandaSaurus wrote: What emerging funds represent the best value in your opinion? I've heard a lot about China in particular, but really wouldn't know where to start investing there. My portfolio is all in the ASX currently, but I'm keen to branch outwards, particularly to a place like China that isn't as overanalysed as the established markets. Cheers.

Not to sound like a broken record here, but diversification really is key. When investing in emerging markets you are taking implicit political risks that simply don't exist with developed market investing. I would recommend buying a broad index that tracks all of the MSCI EM to spread this risk around. Specifically I would be uncomfortable concentrating my portfolio on China for a number of reasons:

1) China isn't really under analyzed relative to other emerging markets. Most everyone has a significant research presence there.
2) China is really really corrupt in many ways, and the corporate economy depends on government more than elsewhere. This isn't uniquely Chinese, but it does mean that very unpredictable things can happen with companies, adding another layer of risk.
3) The structure of the Chinese stock market leads to weird things. Specifically there are (this is off memory, haven't covered mainland ever myself) 4 types of share classes, some of which foreigners can invest in, some of which only Chinese can invest in. Furthermore, the Chinese can't easily invest elsewhere. The restriction of capital both in and out of the country distorts prices and makes the market far more speculative than most others. As someone who believes that a true edge on the market comes from finding fundamental value, rather than predicting tulip crazes, I think this is a bad thing.

On January 06 2010 03:34 Babs wrote: How long does it take before you can turn down a 160 million pound salary? http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/markets/...in_article_id=440710&in_page_id=3

im in the uk, can i buy us shares? i have a modest $10k to invest in some shares and im not fussed if its high risk and high potential return or a stable share. Is there any company you would recomend? Do you have any knowledge of the uk banking crisis, and if so what are your estimates on the future of shares such as rbs, lloyds and barclays?

sicks macks,

would you recommend people here learn charting and technical analysis and let the ppl here trade stocks/futures/forex on their own?

i think it's the way to go.

then maybe in the future we'll have www.liquidtraders.net

in case some of you are interested in trend trading and TA i recommend these books: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0061241717/trendfollowin-20

http://www.amazon.com/American-Hedge-Fund-Million-Operator/dp/0979549701

also check out these sites. http://www.timothysykes.com/ and www.turtletrader.com

they are like coaching sites for trading.

Is there such thing as millionaires that can make a living doing nothing but investing their money in the markets? Are they common? Do people try it and fail?

On January 06 2010 06:18 Ket wrote: Is there such thing as millionaires that can make a living doing nothing but investing their money in the markets? Are they common? Do people try it and fail?

dude... a LOT of people are asking the same thing about poker.

i'm sure a good poker player like you can make the transition to trading if you put you heart into it.