Profitability Test

the NLHU section over at 2p2 is basically 80% HUSNG people

or.... instead of wasting time u can grind 6max for each limit?

One thing I'd like to explain is that I've been learning a lot lately that poker is about playing the games that are the most profitable for you in the long run, and anyone who knows me knows that i've thrived at hu and in sng's (sharkscope.com)

redrain I do agree, Its 2 days time, but I should definitely win atleast $40+ a day, i'll probably run 8-120 a day, which is the same profit I'd be making at nl10 6max..

a 2 day expirement on a low-stakes game that I'm highly trained for isn't a bad idea imo, who knows, I might be able to crush this all the way up, and its also great because the games are matched up totally random most the time, so theres no ego or chasing loses, its way > than cash hu

(unless your playing cash hu vs a very bad player or someone who has like 1/5 as much $ as you and they are willing to play with all of it)

So really, as long as I make $40-$80 in the 2 days, then I made the expected rate at NL10, and if I do better than that then I'll continue

You can own cash. Like I told you, cash has those painful downswings no matter how well you play. But I think that your results at low/micros and overall ability will allow you to beat cash games. Just don't expect 5 BI + every time. Sometimes you will hit 1-2 BI wins for a week at the micros and that is NOT bad. When you get higher up you will hit 1-3 BI losses for a week str8 and be playin perfect.

I would say go for SNG's isn't a bad choice since you've done well there, but remember that the variance in tournaments is ALWAYS much worse than cash, even at micros.

Overall, DROP YOUR EXPECTATIONS and you will be ok. STICK TO YOUR GUIDE!

for some odd reason I really want to see you succeed. I guess it's cause I believe in BR management. When you were just degening it all away I wanted to see you lose cause, well, it's a failing strat and I wanted to be justified. You never disappointed. So now you should stick to your guide and once again, fail to disappoint. You can do it. Stay strong.

can't you just stick to your fucking plan for more than a motherfucking week, jesus fucking christ

also, low limit tournaments are SUPER FUCKING SOFT. I've started fucking around in em when I'm bored and I nearly always cash and I am NOT a tourney player. So don't get your head big when you do well in those. It really means nothing.

i played the $5 hu sngs before to learn to be a better hu player.
they are easy as hell on stars. the $10 ones i met some opponents that gave me trouble but most $5 villains it seems like they do not adjust well enough from ring game to HU and are weak tight.

On January 20 2009 00:15 Fayth wrote: can't you just stick to your fucking plan for more than a motherfucking week, jesus fucking christ

QFT

although I've never played HU sng's really, just a few and they were pretty soft, i played a few really wasted last night just trying them out and won the only one that i cared to win and just about broke even on the others, they were really soft

(was playing at the lowest limits)

Give it 2 days, we'll see what happens, I'm sticking to the guide but I need to know how many bi I should use for these?

I'm thinking something like this

6.25 turbo - $190.00
11.5 turbo - $540.00
23.0 turbo - $1250.00
$34.50 turbo - $1650.00
$57.50 turbo - $3000.00

lean towards the higher amounts of BI.

seriously, they're tournies. one bad beat and you're done. Hence more variance.

I remember reading that for MTT you needed at least 100 BI. I think for smaller SNG's it was like 50. So for these I'd lean around 40.

thx for the advice k2o4

On January 20 2009 00:12 NeillyJQ wrote: One thing I'd like to explain is that I've been learning a lot lately that poker is about playing the games that are the most profitable for you in the long run, and anyone who knows me knows that i've thrived at hu and in sng's (sharkscope.com)

one question i have about this thought, is hwo far forward can you project with HU sngs? does the difficulty become exponentially harder past a certain point? Will you ever "run out of action"? Are there factors outside of bb/100 rates that may make you disinclined from choosing this as your main game? Will the variance get to you, as k2o4 says? etc.

and yea I'm with k2o4, in that I want to see you make it. I remembe rseeing a "Neilly is back!" thread when I first joined not knowing who you were and being utterly confused how a clearly good/talented player could make such poor longterm decisions for himself.

DONT DISAPPOINT US NEILLY <3

it doesnt fucking matter how many buy ins u use when u move up as long as you MOVE DOWN if you lose

you still seem to fail at it

what do u mean? i moved down to NL5 last night, i posted hands I think

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/611778

i think u'd be more profitable long term if u get behind a McDonald's register

On January 20 2009 01:56 Steal City wrote: i think u'd be more profitable long term if u get behind a McDonald's register

lol, it would have been more profitable in the past few years, but now after i've accumulated a quantity of knowledge of the game, it'd be a waste for me to be doing anything else.

On January 20 2009 01:56 Steal City wrote: i think u'd be more profitable long term if u get behind a McDonald's register

and thats not a level, its the truth, ive netted around 10k from online poker in the past 2 years and 20-25k live, thats like 35k, anyone can make that in 2 years at any minimum wage job

but i also get to "work" when i want to work, I get to sit at home and enjoy my life instead of being stuck at a job thinking "FML I hate my job so bad!"

I actually get to wake up and think "hrm which game will i play and pull a profit today in"

I didn't work this hard to give up when I'm much closer than I ever was, and who knows, maybe I never make it, but most likely, I'll have a good year this year that will propel me to have a great year next year.

And I also know anything can happen, I get stakes for some big tournaments and I can seriously turn my situation around in the matter of 12 hrs from being at micros to midlimits or even NL1K (although if I have a big score (15k+) I'm going to win atleast 20bi on each limit from NL100 up til I find my best limit itlr)

Lol I was gonna mouth about how mcdonalds puts me on life tilt as I read this in the drive thru but then I realized mac's was already mentioned which makes it not as cool ......sigh

This all sounds like a great plan for your online bankroll, but you should seriously just come up here and play the 1/2 live games while people still have some Christmas money and shit left. I just got back from a game and it was INCREDIBLY soft...so easy to just run over and control the table.

bankroll management is more about your ability/discipline to move down than when to move up

sure there are nice guidelines and stuff but if you want to move up with 15 BI it's fine as long as you're disciplined to move down at 12 or w/e.

if u need to sell t$ ill take them for 1:1 so u don't get ripped off... just pm me whenever it comes up again