Germany showed again why they have always been the football team with the best mentality, never giving up, no matter the odds. Tell me how many football teams could push down one of the best defenses (Swe) with a player less... Sweden looked so scared and making that wall with 2 players only was huge mistake, still they have a chance to redeem vs Mexico, but I prefer to see Mex and Ger going forward from this group.
On June 24 2018 13:41 Expiate wrote:
Germany showed again why they have always been the football team with the best mentality, never giving up, no matter the odds. Tell me how many football teams could push down one of the best defenses (Swe) with a player less... Sweden looked so scared and making that wall with 2 players only was huge mistake, still they have a chance to redeem vs Mexico, but I prefer to see Mex and Ger going forward from this group.
On June 24 2018 14:03 cariadon wrote:
Rooting for France, Belgium, Mexico, Nigeria and Senegal - in that order.
so basically the 3 Frances, Belgium and Mexico?
Brazil/Spain seem to be the best teams from the favourites
I cant really judge Belgium as they have a really easy group and will just go through everyone, but they gotta face off someone decent in the playoffs before making any calls.
I really like Croatia's chances as well going into playoffs they could potentially reach 1/2 finals which would be huge for them.
Argentina s total crap and their coach will most likely get assassinated once he goes back to his country... He literally had put half of his best players on the bench last game incl the fucking goalkeeper and didn't even take Icardi in the team for World Cup.. what a fucking joke.
Overall rooting for Germany/Spain though, hope the German machine starts working again, Kroos wont be able to solo carry them to the cup
Excl. Panama & Tunisia this World Cup is so fucking competitive, it feels like football is solved tactically and there are very slight edges now even between huge favorites and weaker teams. Look at Morocco and Iran for instance, they almost wrecked Spain/Portugal. If Sweden didn't miss their chances during hte first half, they would've thrown Germany out of the competition. Iceland a 300k pop country had a fuckin massive European Championship 2 years ago and now play like monsters in the World Cup, very cool shit.
P.S. Glad Boateng got the red card for the last match of Germany, he is so fucking bad currently, used to be one of the best players before, but the things he did against Mexico and Sweden.... holy fuck, I'd bench him till the end of the WC
not confident in brazil ... neymar is reallly rusty and they are basing the strat a lot on him. Douglas costa re-injured himself which sucks too.
apparently argentina players are having huge issues with the coach and wanted to fire him but thats not happening because the fee the coach would receive for that was too big but apparently the game vs nigeria now will be controlled by the players the coach will have no say. fucking dimaria and dybala on the bench cmon man...
teams seem more competitive now for sure the weak links are not so weak anymore.
This WC delivers heavily from the very start and the upcoming clashes promise a lot of drama. It's really hard to pick a clear winner, so many great teams.
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PuertoRican United States. Jun 27 2018 19:14. Posts 13051
Maradona acts like this on purpose - the more noise he creates the better for the weak Argentinian team. It's like some people who predict the finalists - the more you put there Argentina, the more people start to believe they can play well. We have to see what France thinks now.
Brazil vs Mexico is going to deliver hard.
And I really want Croatia to go far. It is make the final now or never for them.
Btw, the second from group G goes in the a lot better bracket literally freerolling until the SF if Colombia does not place 1st in their group. So how are going Belgium and England to decide this - make penalties?
On June 28 2018 13:13 Expiate wrote:
Yep, but why the noise? He's not stupid, you really underestimate Maradona.
lol he has always been a ridiculous attention whore and an embarassment.
Do you think he was like "hey I'm going to OD and put myself into a quasi comatose state with cocaine to reduce the media attention to the team's bad performance" lol
I am thinking whether such fouls like the one in the 115' vs Croatia should be punished with a penalty without a goalkeeper. It would have been brutal if Croatia lost with basically been stripped a clear goal.
For example the rule could be that in case of a foul in the penalty area when there is no obstacle/player between the striker and the goal line, and the striker's natural movement direction crosses the goal line, the followed up penalty should be without the presence of a goalkeeper.
This is way more logical than yellow/red card plus normal penalty.
By the rules its a yellow since he attempted to play the ball, but missed. Direct red is if he has no chance to hit the ball at all and just smashes the legs of the opponent on purpose.
But it doesn't really matter in such situation for the particular match whether he gets a card at all or not. What matters is that the opposing team has a chance to miss the followed up penalty while if no foul was committed a goal is 99,9% sure. Just as a penalty without a goal keeper would be. So the rules really favor unfair play in such cases.
there was a rule that you get red card if you are the last defender and make a foul or deny a clear goal scoring opportunity ( 2010 Luiz Suarez on 2010 world cup when he saved with the hand )
but from what I read FIFA changed this rule 2 years ago, rule still working in Brazil
On July 02 2018 14:55 drone666 wrote:
there was a rule that you get red card if you are the last defender and make a fault or deny a clear goal scoring opportunity ( 2010 Luiz Suarez on 2010 world cup when he saved with the hand )
but from what I read FIFA changed this rule 2 years ago, rule still working in Brazil
yeah apparently they changed that which is fucking absurd, not giving a red card for that foul in a 10000% goal for Croatia is just dumb, they should either receive a red card or a goal by default there
anyways after Spain lost I said that Croatia will reach the finals as their bottom half of the bracket is absurdly bad ... England is the best team there outside of them which is just LULZ so I hope I'm right
england is certainly better than denmark and croatia needed penalties to beat them. this england team is fairly legit.
lesson so far from this world cup (or actually, from most world cups, not just this one) is that a huge favorite on paper will frequently lose to a worse side. Out of all remaining games I think belgium-japan is the most lopsided, and even there Japan should have a 15-20% chance at advancing.
On July 02 2018 16:16 Liquid`Drone wrote:
england is certainly better than denmark and croatia needed penalties to beat them. this england team is fairly legit.
.
You're not looking at this objectively. First Croatia didn't need penalties to beat them, that was a 10000% goal there on the end which resulted in the missed penalty by Modric and a yellow card only for the defender plus "baby" Schmeichel had a huuuuge game. Also Croatia doesn't play well against teams that defend themselves well, but from here on they won't meet such teams. You saw what happened against Argentina when they tried to battle for the mid-field.
Perhaps I'm wrong though, as Columbia vs England is a very tough match for both teams, and whoever gets out of Sweden/Switzerland will be evenly matched against the latter as well, Sweden and Switzerland both have an insanely good defense and will cause a lot of trouble for anyone. That being said, I feel like Croatia are the biggest favorites for the final from that half of the bracket. England hasn't gone past 1/4 finals since 30 years with much, much better players e.g. the squad with Beckham, Scholes, Giggs, Neville, Ferdinand and so on (there were like 15 super stars) didn't manage to do it so I doubt these guys will
Also England isn't certainly better than anyone half decent, as they haven't had a real test yet, they won against the 2 weakest teams in the World Cup and the match with Belgium was just pure meh for both teams. I'm fairly certain England would have extremely tough matches against any team that is in the 1/8th finals except Russia, which are just a terrible team on a sick heater
France and Brazil are looking like superpowers and on a different level than the rest, I think we will have a premature final in the semis. Didnt feel the same vibe with Belgium vs Japan or with Uruguay vs Portugal or even with Croatia vs Denmark. Im waiting for England to show their class and outmatch Colombia hopefully they dont dissapoint, although my heart is with the colochos. Sweden is a weird one, I think they have the potential but I think they lack some confidence, expecting them to beat the swiss.
Argentina has made their opposition look really good due to their terrible defense. Croatia looked pretty good vs them but came back to reality with a close game vs a weak denmark. I def dont think they are favorites to win their side of the bracket but its close.
France looked okish in group stage but then once again argentina made them look amazing and mbappe is the new pele. In this case i worry argentina has awaken the beast as france has amazing players.
There is some amazing defensive teams with good counters that can go deep like uruguay and sweden. Also looking forward to see how good England actually is they do seem good this time around.
left bracket is insanely tough while the other is pure trash
Brazil, Uruguay, Belgium and France, while the other side has England/Colombia, Croatia, Russia and Sweden/Switzerland
I think France and Uruguay are playing better than Brazil
Unfortunately, Cavani will miss the rest of the World Cup, so Uruguay won't be nearly as good... Suarez, Cavani combo is probably the best one on the WC. If Neymar wasn't pure trash, the Coutinho,Neymar combo would've been just as lethal
France is probably gonna take the cup, but I feel like they will have tough times if Mbappe & Griezmann both have a bad day.
I'm guessing Columbia throws England out of the competition today
The thing making England the good bet today @1.6 currently to qualify is that their players will be a lot fresher than Colombians. And when you probably have to play for 2 hours it makes the big difference, plus any corner for England might have lethal consequence and one can safely make greedy bets before such situations.
France without Matuidi will have its biggest test next match. The match may very possibly go to penalties.
Mbappe is an insane mix from Pele and CR. I am really looking forward to him and whether he manages to bring down Messi from the throne during his (Mbappe) career. Will have to score much however, like insanely much. But who won't in order to do this?
On July 03 2018 07:05 Spitfiree wrote:
Unfortunately, Cavani will miss the rest of the World Cup, so Uruguay won't be nearly as good... Suarez, Cavani combo is probably the best one on the WC. If Neymar wasn't pure trash, the Coutinho,Neymar combo would've been just as lethal
France is probably gonna take the cup, but I feel like they will have tough times if Mbappe & Griezmann both have a bad day.
I'm guessing Columbia throws England out of the competition today
where did u read this? i looked and haven't seen any confirmation cavani won't play
I've been mostly trying to avoid the world cup this year. My sister is married to a Colombian. We identify with England or rather my family does. I refuse to root for any nationality whose national anthem is "God Save the Queen." I like watching Brasil play, I have a soft spot for France when they are playing well. Spain in 2010 was one of my favorites.
So, I sit down to watch the game and I am a little early so I get punished with an influx of commercials. That is really the content of the game to the corporations. The match is just "filler" for the "content" of advertisements. So, we not only get a competition between England v Columbia, we get Nike v Adidas, Gatorade v Powerade, Ford F-150 v Chevy Silverado. Great. This is exactly how I want to be spending my time. Then I am mostly bored with the game but I do catch myself in a flow state at times. Living vicariously through the tiny avatars on the screen. Harry Kane our hero! Until England massively fucks it up again. All square going into extra time. This is what the world cup is all about besides the 30 min. or so of corporate propaganda being slotted in wherever possible.
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Jul 04 2018 02:37. Posts 5300
i've been rooting for croatia the whole world cup, they been playing well, and fair, and are the underdogs.
Also, for comparison. switzerland vs sweden, its 1v1 against the goal keeper, and they get a red card. croatia vs denmark its 1v0, all he has to do is put it in the net, and he gets yellow card.
Imo the rules should be that both were red cards, but the croatia one was worse. Or is there a difference between pushing someone over and tripping them with your legs?
and yeah pretty obvious england thew their last group stage game to get into the eazy mode bracket.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
football has always have deliberately bad rules for "circus" purposes kind of like the WWE, no other sport shows the lack of sportsmanship that football does.
Thats why every player dives non-stop like idiots, the referees rarely apply the yellow cards for faking therefore its EV+ to continue faking, FIFA could end this ridiculous crap overnight but they choose not to, referees play a villian role.
Anyway all that was to say that yellowcard for that is retarded, even when it was red it was still the best play to foul a player with a high chance to score and now they made it even worse
How is it the best play to foul the player in the penalty area when 90% of the cases you get a red card and he scores a goal, so not only does your team suffer a scored goal but now they have to compensate for a whole player... I never understood that , just let him score but don't fuck up your team
On July 04 2018 04:54 Baalim wrote:
even when it was red it was still the best play to foul a player
Yep, this will always be the best play in situations when a few minutes remain until penalties without a goalkeeper are introduced to the game.
Yellow card in a situation vs Croatia IS the proper decision/ruling as explained why above. The bad ruling is that a penalty with a goalkeeper makes the situation from a 99,9% sure goal to a 85-90% sure.
Yet the same situation could (theoretically) happen outside the penalty area. And by the current rules it won't be a penalty at all, just a foul. So a lot for the people in FIFA making the rules to think about as you said. They do however showed they want to improve the game with the VAR system. Now what's left is make the applied rules by the VAR system more objective and fair for every team plus of course make new rules strengthening fair play (Colombia vs England was a really bad match for an observer just introduced to football for example because of the players abusing the rules and the followed up constant fouls and arguing with the referee).
On July 04 2018 07:37 Spitfiree wrote:
How is it the best play to foul the player in the penalty area when 90% of the cases you get a red card and he scores a goal, so not only does your team suffer a scored goal but now they have to compensate for a whole player... I never understood that , just let him score but don't fuck up your team
Just googled, the odds in worldcups to score are 71%, there are certain situations that have a higher chance of scoring like a 1v1 vs a goalkeepr or worse when the goal keepr is out of position etc. Also the impact of a redcard late in the game is very minimal
I am actually getting drawn into this world cup. I don't think I give a shit about Croatia v Russia and England v Sweden has the likelihood to be dull but I am exited about watching Brasil play minus Neymar theatrics and I am pumped up about how France has been playing. This damn game gets me into a flow state when it's good and that is much of what I crave in life. The national pride and advertising induce nausea but there are ways to avoid it. Like simply avoiding it. I'll come watch the game AT kickoff and leave immediately AT half time and come back immediately AT kickoff.
Ahhh we don't get to see France vs Brazil damnit! That would've been the highlight of this world cup. In my biased opinion Brazil was better than Belgium by a large margin, they just missed soo much and that stupid autogoal... damn. I hope to be proven wrong and Belgium vs France ends up to be epic, but I predict a somewhat easy win for France say 2-0 or 2-1 while controlling the match for 80 minutes.
On July 05 2018 03:30 RiKD wrote:
I am actually getting drawn into this world cup. I don't think I give a shit about Croatia v Russia and England v Sweden has the likelihood to be dull but I am exited about watching Brasil play minus Neymar theatrics and I am pumped up about how France has been playing. This damn game gets me into a flow state when it's good and that is much of what I crave in life. The national pride and advertising induce nausea but there are ways to avoid it. Like simply avoiding it. I'll come watch the game AT kickoff and leave immediately AT half time and come back immediately AT kickoff.
I think exactly the same about the matches. Probably wont even watch tomorrow and I jhavent missed many matches since the whole thing started. Dont mind the national pride and advertising. Advertising almost always feels and is fake as fuck and we def could do without it but its not going anywhere until we have unlimited resources for everyone so its pointless to be anoyed much by it.
Brazil played much better, but ofc beligum went turtle mode after it was 2-0, no need to take risks
lots of individual mistakes, Fernandinho made a lot of shit after the own goal and marcelo sucks balls defensively
also Tite insisted to play with Gabriel Jesus instead of Firmino, retarded
I wouldnt say Brazil played much better lmao, Neymar singlehandedly ruined at least 15 attacks ... what a joke, Belgium were much more dangerous when attacking, the possesion doesnt matter anymore, otherwise Barcelona and Spain/Germany would be running the show everywhere. Very deserved win for Belgium.... Neymar should've been benched for the whole WC after the first 2 matches of Brazil he is the most overrated player, there's literally not a single player that's worse than him in Brazil's team...
Also why didn't Douglas Costa start the match if he wasn't injured lmao ...
Belgium/France winner wins the whole thing, hope its Belgium vs Croatia final and I'd be very happy
doesn't matter if you "attack" whole game if your attack is threatless... Coutinho was the only guy that mattered - just like it was the last 4 matches, except the moment he made that amazing shot, which got saved was the moment at least 2 ppl started instantly tackling him the second he touched the ball. Would've been fine if he had managed to carry Brazil's team again, except this time it wasn't enough (and it should not be expected of him)
Last edit: 08/07/2018 02:19
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Jul 08 2018 03:15. Posts 5300
it's just variance-off game included in this variance. brazil had the best betting odds to win so they were clearly a favourite and it was a bad beat. The stats show brazil had higher posession, higher shots on goal, and yes it is bad luck if you miss a lot of shots. neymar still one of the best players in the world even if he didn't play well in a few games.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
Part of that win was Roberto Martinez tactics. Moving De Bruyne forward was brilliant and the defensive spacing was superb. I don't necessarily think that was built into the odds but honestly it probably was about right. The Belgian counterattack looked VERY dangerous. I still say Brazil looked like the more dangerous team in that game. To say that Neymar didn't matter is absurd. He was a threat every time he touched the ball. Even just the crispness and speed of his passing opened up space and kept the attack on. I think the betting odds had that matchup pinned down pretty well. Brazil wins that matchup about 60% of the time. Hence, Brazil losing can be considered a bad beat.
Brazil really missed casemiro on stoppping those counter attacks... but to spitfire look at stats brazil shot ~30 times of which around 10 had a good chance of scoring which is kinda surreal in a game like this. Belgium shot 8 times w 3 towards the goal. Brazil got in desperation mode with the 0-2 and made a lot of mistakes they shouldnt have but still dealt with it quite good and made a good amount of spots to score. Neymar you have to realize came back from a broken toe for this world cup he was about 3 months without play- its pretty amazing what he did considering that.
You guys realize that even by poker standards a bad beat is considered <5% chance to lose right? Of course that Brazil were the favorites, and would be if they match up again today, that doesn't mean shit though. What happened on the field is something completely different from bookies odds, but on both fronts you guys are just saying random stuff which are simply untrue.
Indeed Neymar came from an injury, thats why the most adequate decision would've been to put him on the bench and let him play 30-40minutes a match if necessary until proven that he is prepared to start and play the whole match. Neymar instantly lost the ball 90%> of the time he took it and he keeps doing the same shitty thing every game, trying to dribble with the ball instead of insantly passing it to the MASSIVE open zones, Brazillian squad was positioning itself very fucking well, except almost all opportunities were missed cause it was either Coutinho being tackled or Neymar losing the ball the most retarded way instead of passing it.
Also read the definition of a bad beat, 60-40 being a bad bead lmao get it together. I'd say 60-40 is about right when it comes to Brazil - Belgium though (if "X" isn't an option)
Not managing to score 4 times in a row from clear positions is a bad beat indeed.
That said I am not saying Brazil should have won this. Belgium showed much class and tactically played better. They were those who allowed Brazil to find these clear shots in the second half and if they were to lose this match it would have been their fault they completely gave up the initiative and the momentum.
At this point I am more looking at the final than the semis (I expect the favorites to win it after 90 minutes), but who knows, maybe there are still surprises left in this WC, which was full of them already.
I'm super happy about the Croatians. They used the chance of the more easier bracket and Spain going out, and here they are - at the final.
We basically have Goliath vs David in the final match. I think the only real chance Croatia have is France scoring a goal and deciding to play it defensively, then Croatia scoring in the last minutes and keeping it even to penalties.
Belgium vs England will be good show too. We have to see them playing serious now.
Pretty dissapointed by the English team, they had a decent first half but afterwards didnt do javkshit while the croatians grew better and better. I really wish the croatians win this now. France is better but I like the croatians more as a team that grows as the game progresses rather than diminishes like the French. Also enjoyed Eng vs Cro more than Bel vs Fra. I think Belgium wins the 3rd as they want it more and work better together. For croatia to win Modric and Rakitic both will have to appear at some point. Hopefully Mboopy isnt in op mode.
^yah i thought it was so weird england dominated 1st half than goes downhill so bad... croatia although not in france level has some players with sick experience which can help.
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Jul 12 2018 15:40. Posts 5300
haha, so much results orientation and gambling fallacies in this thread
i'm gona predict france wins the final about 60-65% of the time, based on looking at betting sites that know more than me.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
France are a lot more fresher physically. They basically saved all their tricks for this final match (we saw what they are really capable of only vs Argentina in 55~70 minute). What fails them here is luck and stupidity from nerves aka red cards, which should make the difference 10% of the time. 15% Croatia plays their best game, reaches penalties and wins it. France take it 75% of the time. This is how I see it personally. I hope I am wrong though and Croatia drops the biggest surprise on all World Cups ever.
On July 12 2018 17:54 Expiate wrote:
France are a lot more fresher physically. They basically saved all their tricks for this final match (we saw what they are really capable of only vs Argentina in 55~70 minute). What fails them here is luck and stupidity from nerves aka red cards, which should make the difference 10% of the time. 15% Croatia plays their best game, reaches penalties and wins it. France take it 75% of the time. This is how I see it personally. I hope I am wrong though and Croatia drops the biggest surprise on all World Cups ever.
I think you give France too much credit. Without looking at Cro lets see how France has done so far objectively:
- Barely winning 2-1 vs Australia (one of the weakest teams in my opinion in this WC)
- Win 1-0 vs Peru that, while showing superiority, could very well have ended in a draw since France seems to play worse as time goes on in a match.
- 1-1 vs Denmark who are not a strong team at all, I'd say average.
- Again barely winning against the worst Argentinian team in a while (this team got super lucky vs Peru by drawing in their own HOME vs us for their World Cup qualifier)
- Best result so far winning 2-0 vs a very dimished Uruguay without their best player by far Cavani and a blooper from their goalkeeper Muslera.
So all in all while France seems very impressive and their player are spectacular, I don't think Croatia's chances are so bad. Havent analized Croatias games and I don't like them all the time, but if they can manage the French team in the first half I think they have a very decent chance.
@locoo: I give France much credit, because I expect to see a game which will grant them the win by 2 goals minimum - something they never went for until now, because winning with marginal lead is the right strategy in order to preserve strength. But this won't be needed any more. It is their last match and they will play all their aces in it.
Dont look at group stages, France wasn't really playing there, also game vs Denmark was 0-0 and literally the most boring match I've ever seen in my entire life. If there was the legal possibility to take a draw without playing they would've signed that deal so fast its unreal... I really dont get ppl that bet for favourites in groups in WC ... the easiest way to lose money. They always think its a given that they go out of the group and thats how Germany got KOd and Argentina was very close to it as well as Portugal ( I still feel bad for that Iranian dude not scoring in the 94th minute, he s probably having nightmares). Big ass favourites getting KOd in the group stages is something quite standard in the group stages. Germany isn't the first WC winner to get KOd the next tournament, it's a rather common event e.g. Spain in 2014. Anyway my point is ... favourites in group stages are careless and usually play randomly... that being said France:
They played pretty poorly vs Peru and Australia considering their capabilities, but that's due to underestimating them and they still won both matches..
They completely destroyed Argentina (unfortunately no WC for Messi) and the score is kind of misleading.
Uruguay was much closer, but Uruguay was easily a top5 team on this WC.
Belgium had no luck, but France did deserve to win it. It was still close, but it would've been justified if the game had gone for the extra 30.
As much as I like Croatia and will be rooting for them for the final, they haven't had nearly as big of a challenge as France. If it were Belgium/Brazil/Uruguay/Argentina instead of England, the final would be much different. England just played their cards right when exiting the group, got lucky Germany got knocked out and they didn't really amaze with their game. There is no way they deserve a SF in reality... Again super happy for Croatia and imo their Final was semi-easy to predict given the bracket, but tbh skillwise they're prob around top5-8ish
France looks like the only team playing as a high level local club e.g. Barca, Real. Mbappe, Griezmann, and Pavard have a sick sync and it feels like Umtiti and Varan are unbreakable (which is kind of a surprise considering both sucked ass in their clubs during the season). Definitely, the best team on the competition and they should easily be taking the cup at least 9.5 out of 10 times. And then we got the other factors like Croatia having played 3x120 the past 7 days after their top3 players - Rakitic, Modric & Vrsaljko have played like 60game long season, that should be very, very exhausting. I mean if you looked how Modric played vs England, you'd know what I mean, he was among the worst players for Croatia and that guy is a freaking beast. Fortunately, Vrsaljko went into god mode there and was running all across the field for every ball like a madman.
Last edit: 13/07/2018 01:17
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Jul 13 2018 01:41. Posts 5300
so your putting 20:1 on france winning? im guessing you'll be betting a huge amount of money on this game then
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
I wrote a long post on sports betting but then I decided to just throw it into the fire.
My brain is a bit scrambled from work and I don't even know if I would be able to even calculate it these days without looking up how to do it but 95% edge vs 60% edge would be a helluva lot of units. Especially when one considers the outlier of such an opportunity. It might be a spot for getting as much down as you can that wouldn't change your life so much or basically not be too displeasing besides being a little shell shocked and sad. It's hard to predict such wagers. The good of the big win versus the bad of the big loss. Just as long as it's thought out relatively well. I thought about winning $2million at 25/50 in a year more than I thought about grinding out 2/4 again. Or, even life tilted to the point where I didn't want to play anymore. Wagers about life are very interesting. That's basically what any wager is. We can do all the math about how to grow our bankrolls and how to avoid risk of ruin and then there is the fun part of strategy and sharpness and making the wagers but it's really the wagers about life that are most important.
Haralabos Voulgaris made a wager when he was in grad school for Philsophy living in his brother's basement. He bet $100k (his entire bankroll) that the Lakers would win the championship at 8 to 1 odds. He said that if he won he could drop out of grad school, move, and become a professional gambler increasing his limits (keep in mind in sportsbetting his edge remains the same as limits increase) and if he lost oh well he'll just make back the money at a skycap job, rebuild his bankroll, and continue going to grad school and living in his brothers basement. He later has said that it was stupid to do that on a future but it really seems like a sound wager to me. He ended up winning that bet and the rest is history. Que sera sera.
I never took that $2million out of those 25/50 plo games. I am a story of what happens when it goes the other way. I put myself out of the games. Maybe I wanted to be out of the games.
Fuck it I'm writing a blog. Fuck.
Well....
TLDR:
The sportsbooks and a good vig free calculator will predict games better than anyone on this site (as far as I know)
To Expiate and Spitfiree, I dont buy the whole “group matches dont matter”. Its the fucking world cup , you dont take chances vs lesser teams and you definetly dont understimate them, that is a rookie mistake which Deschamps is not. The only one I concede is vs Denmark vs it really didn’t matter. Also I forgot the match vs Belgium where again they were outplayed at the second half but Belgium just could not score. In any case Im not sure about it but we will see on sunday how it plays out. I will be a great match that’s for sure.
On July 13 2018 00:41 Stroggoz wrote:
so your putting 20:1 on france winning? im guessing you'll be betting a huge amount of money on this game then
I probably make 1 bet per 2 years (last time I bet huge was Floyd vs McGregor and I think this is a MUCH bigger steal). Betting makes me lose the joy from watching sports, but yeah I'd say the 1.9 coef for France winning in 90minutes is bonkers and if you're into that shit it would be mad not to take it.
If I were still playing poker I'd probably just set aside a portion of my bank and go all in with it, but I really cant be bothered even if it sounds as a lame excuse.
Last edit: 14/07/2018 01:40
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Jul 14 2018 04:42. Posts 5300
well if your interested i'll take action on that offer haha. I would bet against you. Actually not sure how this works since i've never sports bet before, but given the statistics i can see on football win/loss records, i would bet money on croatia winning more than 5% of the time in the final.
edit: it seems you could simply get a better offer from the pro bookies so i doubt this will come to fruition. Still, would be interested. 20:1 seems insane to me, i don't think i'd make that bet unless i had some insane knowledge.
looking at the world cup stats it seems brazil have won 67% of their games and draw/loss at 16% each, and that's including games against average teams in the group stages. they have the highest win-loss ratio of any team. Even to go from 90% to 95% you need to win twice as many games for every game you lose, so yeah, i don't know much about football but looking at the stats it seems giving 20:1 would be crazy to me.
btw before when i used the term bad beat,,,i was using it a bit too liberally. I prob was thinking around 60-40 in my head, like you said it was.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
Hope it goes to Luca Modric regardless of the outcome tbh, a player shouldnt be awarded the Golden Ball while making up fouls and delaying the game on purpose.
I'll take Croatia winning @ $1 to win $19 up to $100 to win $1,900 (in Bitcoin). Assuming Spitfire or anyone else is trustworthy enough to pay if they lose.
LOL yes, I'll go ahead and bet on my expectations rather than steal a 30x better bet given by bookies, that sounds rational. If you want to give me 1.95 coef for france winning in 90 minutes I'll go ahead and bet all my vechain which is probably like 500$ at this point. I'd want my winnings in vechain as well though
You predict a 95% favorite bet that pays close to even, anyone with half a brain would best most of thei networth, if you aren't liquid you sell all your assets.
Anyone who does not is either an idiot or just talking shit.
1.9 coef = -111 US odds , while what you're asking for is -2000
also lol @ Baal , I'll just comment on the last part. "if you arent liquid you sell all your assets" is a literal oxymoron
I also ended up in the top 0.3% of fifa's predictor game and havent bet a single match - I must be a huge idiot, no ?
Too bad Croatia got cut by the referee - first goal was a dive from Griezmann and there was an offside of Mbappe. Two critical referee mistakes in 30s and the match could've taken a different turn. Overall deserved win and sick efficiency though. Can't believe someone like Giroud was a starter for every match and wins the World Cup though. He has 0 goals and 0 shots on target in the whole WC as a central forward, that is fucking absurd. I'm guessing their 2nd goalkeeper would've done a better job as a CF than him
Yeah was an entertaining game, I could feel the croatians frustration with the referee as well. That thing about Giroud, is must be a tactic, maybe just distraction to give way to the real threats like Mbappe and Griezmann? Otherwise it's fucking ridiculous.
No, It's just that their better CF - Benzema isn't playing for the national team after blackmailing someone from the team cause he had pictures of him fucking a prostitute or some shit like that. He blackmailed him for 100k euro, which is fucking absurd considering he makes that much a week, if not more. The trial is still ongoing but he got booted out of the squad a while back.
Giroud is an absolute disgrace, it's not that he's not trying to score, he just cant.
Giroud being a fail shows what huge tactical beasts France are.
Pretty expected final match as it went. Croatia completely skipping the second half due to physical exhaustion should signal the organizers that longer breaks after the group phase are needed, if they don't want lower quality finals than semis of course.
Overall really strong competition this WC and some big surprises delivered for a super entertaining tourney.
I haven't really looked for the foul after to check it out after the match and let's completely ignore the fact that Griezmann dove, as he would've been fouled either way dive or no dive. The thing is I'm pretty sure Mbappe was in offside with 1 leg when the foul was being shot. Now he didn't play with the ball, however, the rule says that if a player in an offside position has an influence on the game, it's an offside even if he doesn't play with the ball. Mandjukic HAD to cover that area because of Mbappe being in an offside, so he DID influence the game which is a 1000% foul and there are 5 referees in the VAR room with no one saying shit. That was disgusting.
Might not be Mbappe btw, might be Pogba but not sure, not the best quality
His leg is 1000000% behind the defender.
Not to mention that Mandjukic was also being pushed there. Shit like that really pisses me off, whats the point of using VAR if you can't even fucking do it correctly in the most important match of the WC.
Either way don't think Croatia would've had the physical condition to win this, unless they had managed to score 2 goals in the first 50 minutes and then park the bus, but they're not that type of team.... and a guy like Lovren is a starting defender so...
On July 15 2018 19:02 Spitfiree wrote:
1.9 coef = -111 US odds , while what you're asking for is -2000
also lol @ Baal , I'll just comment on the last part. "if you arent liquid you sell all your assets" is a literal oxymoron
I also ended up in the top 0.3% of fifa's predictor game and havent bet a single match - I must be a huge idiot, no ?
I figured you mentioned it 20:1 since Stroggoz and someone else mentioned it.
and yes, if you have a 95% chance to win close to even money you should by kelly and pretty much any reasonable risk criterion bet at least half of your net worth.
If you meant 10:1 and not 20:1 then it changes considerably, but it still one of the most EV+ opporunities you will find in your entire life.
If a layman lets such an opportunity go by without investing then its understandable, but any professional gambler who does that is a fool, most likely because their odds prediction skills are ridiculously bad, but subconsciously they are aware of this thus they don't invest.
Stop trying to justify it, this is a poker forum that shit wont fly.
Also no, not betting getting top 0.3% of whatever you are talking about wouldnt make an idiot, it would make you an idiot to infer that would make you a +ev WC bettor.
It's not Mbappe, but the dude is in offside, however they may treat the shot not as a pass to him, but as a direct strike and in this case he is in a passive offside aka the goal is by the rules.
It was clear that the referee is going to push France, especially their own boy Pitana who opened the WC. This however wouldn't change the fact that Croatia would totally miss the 2nd half in either way. It's not about momentum/dynamic here and a different result at half time. France simply scores enough to beat them the 2nd half always when Croatia have no physical capability anymore.
Sad thing, but as long as there are so few days between the matches the small countries have awful chance, because of using their main squad all the time. Let's hope this is changed in the future. If France and Croatia play after 2 weeks from now I give it 60/40 for France. But in the WC final it may have been even higher than 75/25.
Actually being a direct strike or not does not have to matter here since the goal is declared as own goal by Mandžukic. It seems they simply count Pogba as not interfering in any way with Mandžukic or Vida. Now, if Vida have went to the referee explaining Pogba was not allowing him to play the ball after the Mandžukic header, maybe they would reconsider the situation, but this does not happen, so I kind of tend to go with the offside being passive.
But again as you said Mandžukic is aware of Pogba and may play with the ball to prevent it from going to him. If this was the case it is a clear offside and the reason Mandžukic did not go to argue with the referee is that he is not sure whether Pogba is offside. At 0:06 here it looks like he is looking at the assistant referee being unsure.
Really questionable situation. It can be given in both ways. But coming after the dive from Griezmann this should have 100% be declared offside.
An offside should be called the second Griezman hits the balls. If a player is in offside and INFLUENCES the game, without playing with the ball, then it is a 100% offside by the new rules ( 1-2 years now). Pogba is there creating pressure for the defense, so he obviously influences the game. Everything after Griezman hitting the ball does not mean a thing.
What pisses me off is that they have VAR and 5 ppl were in the room watching the finale and nobody said shit. It was the most important match of the WC and major mistakes were made. I don't think Croatia would've had insanely bigger odds of winning due to that goal being taken away but still, it's very nasty especially cause it could've been prevented.
A lot of people also were calling out the ref on the penalty, but that's a 1000% penalty imo. There was a defender of Croatia and Mbappe waiting for the ball behind. You can't really know who'll get it first and what happens. We human beings have natural reactions of course, e.g. his hand was positioned that way cause he had no clear vision of the ball and was keeping balance while going back to the ground by instincts, except he s a professional athlete and should be able to overcome his instincts especially in such situations.
Perisic move with the hand was on purpose and intentional. The penalty is 100% by the rules.
About the offside: Influencing does not mean just standing in offside and having a defender near you. This does NOT guarantee that you influence the game. Take a look at the possible scenarios here (official rules as of the day the match was played):
1) preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision
2) challenging an opponent for the ball
3) clearly attempting to play a ball which is close to them when this action impacts on an opponent
4) making an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball
1) - Could be decided if Vida insisted
2) & 3) - Could be decided if Mandžukic insisted
4) - No such situation
The problem is neither Vida nor Mandžukic went to protest with the referee. It was more like:
- Vida could not play the bounced ball from Mandžukic and he saw its trajectory clearly
- Mandžukic wanted to clear the ball in order not to go directly in the goal besides stopping Pogba from playing with it
It's really tricky, because if you totally remove Pogba from there, Mandžukic does the same header pretty much all the time. But if Mandžukic had gone to the assisting referee insisting he does this ONLY to prevent Pogba to play with the ball, then there has to be an offside.
the BSOP (brazilian series of poker) is going on and Neymar reached FT of the high roller that was going to end yesterday BUT he had a wedding to attend thus the organization decided to break and continue the next day.
On July 25 2018 20:11 CamilaPunt wrote:
another neymar LOL
the BSOP (brazilian series of poker) is going on and Neymar reached FT of the high roller that was going to end yesterday BUT he had a wedding to attend thus the organization decided to break and continue the next day.
United States. Jul 03 2018 21:17. Posts 8569
