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French election 23/04

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FullBRing   Philippines. Apr 18 2017 08:28. Posts 566

i know no one really gives a fuck about french election, but this election is special.
Le pen, populist far right candidate as a real shot at becoming elected. If its the case, Europe is basically fucked. And that would be just the beginning !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkZir1L7fSY

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 Last edit: 18/04/2017 08:32

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 18 2017 08:47. Posts 7889

Its the Trump test of Europe. An imbecile,maniac that no one believes would get elected has a real chance, and would be completely catastrophic to the whole continent.


Baalim   Mexico. Apr 18 2017 08:59. Posts 31590

On the contrary I think many of us are very interested because as you said it might have strong repercussions to the future of the E.U.

Obviously she seems like a nasty and racist lady and again the left has pushed so hard for so long centrist people will start choosing these demagoges to push back.

I wonder what would be the real long-term repercussions of a disbandment of the E.U. because many countries didnt fair very well under it, I'm not knowledable enough on the subject to have a proper opinion, but I'm pretty sure almost everyone who has an opinion have no fucking clue wtf they are talking about and they will make emotional and reductionist arguments instead of grasping the complexity of such a thing.

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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 18 2017 13:42. Posts 7889

I don't think that anyone is aware of how a disbandment of the EU would happen let alone talk about future repercussions. You could always say random stuff like " financial collapse, raise of insecurity in governments, raise of abuse of human rights" and blah blah, but the truth is its such a complex system I don't think a single man can have an opinion that matters.

I don't think the British are still aware of the consequences, they tried to negotiate terms in which they would be as if a fellow EU state, but on their own beliefs( e.g. would ban immigrants from Eastern Europe),, which obviously won't and shouldn't happen. If anything the EU will make em an example and treat them like any other country with tariffs and import taxes.

If Le Pen is voted in, at best, she will push for major right reforms in the EU, at worst she will push a FRexit, which if accepted in France, would mean the end of the EU. If either France or Germany leaves the EU, it is done.

The good part of this election is that if Le Pen loses then the populist tendencies worldwide will suffer a major loss and would lose momentum, which would be fucking great.


Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 18 2017 14:47. Posts 2659

her victory is less likely than Trump's victory was, and that was shocking. She loses in the second election against everyone, significantly so even against Melenchon. Macron vs Le Pen seems like the most probable first round outcome, and looking at polls, she's never done better than 42% vs 58% - but there's also a 29% vs 71% out there. Average seems to be like 37-63. Sure, 2016 showed that polls aren't all that reliable, but 1) my understanding is that France has a history of correctly estimating FN's numbers in the past and 2) neither Trump nor Brexit beat the polls by even close to the numbers she would have to beat them with.

If it somehow ended up with Fillon vs Le Pen, that gives her a very fair shot, but that seems extremely unlikely.



The EU is indeed complex and anyone claiming it's only negative or only positive doesn't know wtf they're talking about. Salaries and worker rights for unskilled labor in wealthy european countries has deteriorated as a consequence of EU membership and freedom of movement of labor. The EU hardly feels democratic, more like a faceless bureaucracy influenced by lobbyism. Lots of other legit arguments against also, mostly relating to national sovereignty being overridden.

At the same time, being able to freely travel between all member states is fucking fantastic. And EU membership has done wonders economically for the former soviet bloc countries. Norway is not a member, and personally I feel rather indifferent about whether Norway should be a member. (Being outside the EU, we still adopt most EU laws and regulations. Not being part essentially trades a largely meaningless voice in the EU parliament for a special veto power I think we've only utilized once. ) However having talked to several eastern europeans whose lives have been vastly improved as a direct consequence of EU membership, I am overall very positive towards the EU project, even if I sometimes really disagree with the structure of the EU organization and the political direction.

lol POKER 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 20 2017 21:35. Posts 7889

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-shooting-idUSKBN17M2I8

I really hoped something like this wouldn't happen before the elections, sadly it did


Baalim   Mexico. Apr 23 2017 00:22. Posts 31590


  On April 18 2017 13:47 Liquid`Drone wrote:
her victory is less likely than Trump's victory was, and that was shocking. She loses in the second election against everyone, significantly so even against Melenchon. Macron vs Le Pen seems like the most probable first round outcome, and looking at polls, she's never done better than 42% vs 58% - but there's also a 29% vs 71% out there. Average seems to be like 37-63. Sure, 2016 showed that polls aren't all that reliable, but 1) my understanding is that France has a history of correctly estimating FN's numbers in the past and 2) neither Trump nor Brexit beat the polls by even close to the numbers she would have to beat them with.

If it somehow ended up with Fillon vs Le Pen, that gives her a very fair shot, but that seems extremely unlikely.



The EU is indeed complex and anyone claiming it's only negative or only positive doesn't know wtf they're talking about. Salaries and worker rights for unskilled labor in wealthy european countries has deteriorated as a consequence of EU membership and freedom of movement of labor. The EU hardly feels democratic, more like a faceless bureaucracy influenced by lobbyism. Lots of other legit arguments against also, mostly relating to national sovereignty being overridden.

At the same time, being able to freely travel between all member states is fucking fantastic. And EU membership has done wonders economically for the former soviet bloc countries. Norway is not a member, and personally I feel rather indifferent about whether Norway should be a member. (Being outside the EU, we still adopt most EU laws and regulations. Not being part essentially trades a largely meaningless voice in the EU parliament for a special veto power I think we've only utilized once. ) However having talked to several eastern europeans whose lives have been vastly improved as a direct consequence of EU membership, I am overall very positive towards the EU project, even if I sometimes really disagree with the structure of the EU organization and the political direction.



Part of the miscalculation of Trump on the polls was that many people didnt feel comfortably to open support him, this could happen with Le Pen, and also if a considerable terrorist attacks happens close to elections that could make her win.

On the part of the EU I declare myself ignorant about it, I mean besides the obvious facts that having a consolidated currency gives much more power to make big commercial deals overseas that perhaps individual countries wouldnt have such a strong position, however this negotiating power seems to serve a very narrow group of very big corporations, I would be more interested in how the euro affects middle to small sized companies in terms of commerce particularly o outside of Europe

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nolan   Ireland. Apr 23 2017 22:30. Posts 6203

Probably gonna bet on Le Pen, gotta be a profitable bet.

On September 08 2008 10:07 Baal wrote: my head is a gyroscope, your argument is invalid 

GoTuNk   Chile. Apr 24 2017 03:02. Posts 2752


  On April 23 2017 21:30 nolan wrote:
Probably gonna bet on Le Pen, gotta be a profitable bet.


Will throw some bucks aswell, Trump already made me a few hundred bucks


VanDerMeyde   Norway. Apr 24 2017 07:24. Posts 4747

Why would Europe be fucked if Le Pen wins ? And the beginning to what ?

:DLast edit: 24/04/2017 18:37

FullBRing   Philippines. Apr 24 2017 17:58. Posts 566

Betting on lepen is a terrible bet. YOu can still bet on Macron for 1.20 wich is an amazing bet.


VanDerMeyde   Norway. Apr 24 2017 18:37. Posts 4747

Sports betting fishes !

:D 

waga   United Kingdom. Apr 24 2017 19:26. Posts 2375

indeed betting (and voting) Le Pen is stupid
source : am french


Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 24 2017 19:38. Posts 7889

At this point its safe to say VanDerMeyde is a troll bot that got derailed from social medias that matter


VanDerMeyde   Norway. Apr 24 2017 21:16. Posts 4747

So asking a question is trolling

:D 

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 24 2017 21:57. Posts 2659

Yeah, 1/7 on macron is an amazing bet. Le pen is throwing money out of the window. It's 12 days until the election.

Here's a picture for how Le Pen- Macron matchup has been going the last 3 months.



Those two lines are not about to suddenly meet up. We also know that she did not overperform her polls during round 1, so there's no reason to expect that she'll significantly overperform them in round two, even with Melenchon refusing to give his support to either candidate.

lol POKER 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 24 2017 22:18. Posts 7889

You are asking why the descendant of one of the trashiest politicians in Europe, who also kicked their father(the trashiest politician i had in mind) out of their party to make it look like the party is taking " a turn" ( obviously not really, just a publicity stunt), with ties to Russia ( not only does she publicly supports Russia, but the media campaign trolls from Russia are helping her so she s obviously Putin s "horse" ) and someone that campaigns for FRexit. That's on top of being a huge racist and a blatantly exposed liar ( then again which politician isnt a liar ). Sadly she had some, what seemed to me, good ideas at first regarding immigration laws, except she turned them into a clown fiesta pushing them into extreme lengths e.g. make it harder for employers to employ foreigners that do not have citizenship, which is fucking retarded for a country in the EU (maybe if a foreigner is better than you, then you don't deserve the job???, if its about salary rates, then she could always use other instruments to achieve the same goal). That being an assessment about her on not too many observations and articles. read.

Le Penn is the populist vote which would push all the dominos down in Europe and push the EU to disbandment and open the doors for Russia for strong influence on the continent again, which in my opinion is 10x worse than a EU disbandment as while countries thrived even without the union, under Russia's influence societies always suffer.

P.S. I too think nations like France and Germany are too smart to ever vote a populist to govern them though looking back at the last 100-150 years they should have learned their lesson , so hopefully im right.

 Last edit: 24/04/2017 22:21

Baalim   Mexico. Apr 25 2017 00:03. Posts 31590


  On April 24 2017 20:57 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Yeah, 1/7 on macron is an amazing bet. Le pen is throwing money out of the window. It's 12 days until the election.

Here's a picture for how Le Pen- Macron matchup has been going the last 3 months.



Those two lines are not about to suddenly meet up. We also know that she did not overperform her polls during round 1, so there's no reason to expect that she'll significantly overperform them in round two, even with Melenchon refusing to give his support to either candidate.



I'm having flashbacks lol.


A 5:1 bet on Le Pen doesnt seem bad, so far in Britain and the US the right-wing options have been extremely miscalculated by polls so I think it is naive not to take that heavily into consideration. a 1/7 bet on Macron seems awful to me (In before Macron wins and some idiot mentions how he was right on a 1/7 bet lol)

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Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 25 2017 00:11. Posts 2659

Here's a picture from round 1



Le Pen did worse in the election than in the polls. This is not even remotely comparable to brexit or Trump. Brexit was what, a 2-3% wrong margin?

I was certain Hillary was gonna win, but I am way, way more certain Macron is winning. Not gonna say 100%, but 99.5% seems totally reasonable. With Trump, there were periods of time where he was ahead or even in polls, there were outlier polls like rasmussen consistently giving him a better chance, there were lots of fluctuations, and Trump's victory ultimately hinged on winning the right states with the right margins. There hasn't been a poll giving her better than 42 vs 58 (whereas macron had a 71-29 one), this is about winning the popular vote, not the right districts, there are few significant fluctuations. There's no looming email scandal or whatever, either.. 5:1 is absolutely horrible for Le Pen. Make it 50:1 and I still wouldn't bet on her.

lol POKER 

Baalim   Mexico. Apr 25 2017 00:15. Posts 31590

If the EU dies its because of its stupid stubborness

I mean first Brexit, now 69% of people voting Le Pen said that immigration was their main issue and as we all can see that the right is gaining a lot of momentum, the newer generations appear to be much more conservatives than millenials so does the E.U. adapt to survive and drop its ridiculous stance on immigration and focus on economical and trade deals? No, they carry on like nothing is happening making themselves huge targets for nasty maniacs like Le Pen


I want to watch the left burn for their stubborn arrogance, for shoving centrists to the right to have a voice, hopefully from the ashes the demagoges leave reasonable politics and culture arises, but I wont be holding my breath.

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