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French election 23/04 - Page 3

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Baalim   Mexico. May 05 2017 00:55. Posts 34246


  On April 26 2017 14:30 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I'm not saying this principle holds true in general. But the explanation for the 1/6 for macron or 5:1 for le pen is not that this represents how likely they are to win, and I tried to come up with an alternative. If bookmakers overall think that the actual chance for a Le Pen victory is in the 15-20% range, they're clueless.



bookmakers set the line, then actual bets sway the line usually its pretty accurate but the more emotion is put into the event the less accurate it is and there is a lot in emotion in politics, for example you gave LePen a 0.5% chance to win, which shows your obvious emotional bias.

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Baalim   Mexico. May 05 2017 00:55. Posts 34246

and Macron just said that LePen voters are the real enemies of france

He might be 99% to win, but he sure is trying hard to repeat Hillarys mistakes.

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Liquid`Drone   Norway. May 05 2017 01:43. Posts 3093


  On May 04 2017 23:55 Baalim wrote:
Show nested quote +



bookmakers set the line, then actual bets sway the line usually its pretty accurate but the more emotion is put into the event the less accurate it is and there is a lot in emotion in politics, for example you gave LePen a 0.5% chance to win, which shows your obvious emotional bias.




Nope. If not for 2016 fucking with everyone's rationality, nobody would think she has much more than a 0.5%. I mean, I'm not actually debating whether it's 0.5%, 1% or 2%, or even 3% (which is the highest figure I've seen from any analyst), I'm just saying that the 15-20% bookies apparently worked with is completely ridiculous and miles off.

I have not seen a single argument for why MLP has a shot at this that isn't 'lol but this is what people said about Trump or Brexit' and every single person who makes that argument seems completely oblivious to several facts: Brexit polls were off by 2-3%. Trump was occasionally polling ahead. He lost the popular vote but because of the EC he still won more delegates. Polls in the US had huge variations. There were lots of uncertainties, and while you had the Sam Wang from princeton model saying it was 99% likely that Hillary would win, there were also several guys saying 'my model which has correctly predicted every election since 1980 says Trump wins', and Nate Silver was like, 75-25. (Regarding the french election, silver places it at between 1% and 3% for a MLP win btw. I think that's high also, but my posts in this thread have all been spurred by people believing that 5:1 is a good bet on her.)

I don't feel like repeating myself anymore. Giving her a 20% chance is fucking ridiculous. Professional gamblers really should know better. If someone offered you 33:1 odds, I wouldn't take that myself, but I also wouldn't bother arguing against taking the bet, because that's fair enough.

One week ago, when I posted most of my posts in this thread, election was 2 weeks away and she was down by 20-22 points. Now, it's 1 week away, and she's down by 20-22 points. She did worse than polls indicated in round 1. Not a single poll, at any time, from any sample size, has given her more than 42%. She lost round 1 to Macron, and voters from every single other party, with the exception for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's 4.5%, are by large majorities going to Macron.

What do you think her chances are, and how did you reach that conclusion?

lol POKER 

Baalim   Mexico. May 05 2017 03:35. Posts 34246

No, you didnt just say a bet on Macron are good, you literally said her odds were 1 in 200 to win, and that would probably make it the best bet in history if it pays 1/5 (in which conveniently you have not a cent in).

Its the 99.5% that shows me your bias, the people giving Hillary 99% to win were liberal because that is what they want to happen its normal to overestimate the likelyhood of something happening when we want it to happen, MLP supporters probably think she is a favorite or close to a win, Macron supporters think he has 99%+ to win and usually the truth lies somewhere in between.

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BadGoNe   France. May 05 2017 10:06. Posts 1089

After 1st round results, Macron was on his way to win easy (like Chirac in 2002 with 82% vs 18%) but then he got kinda screwed by the media/other politicians.
They did not rally behind him and even some dumbasses suggested to vote "blank". Not all of them recommended to vote Macron.

For example Mélanchon... who said he doesn't like Macron's plan but then say this doesn't mean he suggests to vote Le Pen. He basically said: vote whoever you think is best.

So all this mess benefited Le Pen and that's why she is "close" with 40% vs 60%. If people would have been smart, she would be like her dad: 20% vs 80%.
It was a pain to see on French social media, people all criticizing Macron (because they would have preferred another contestant to face Le Pen in 2nd round) BUT then very few posts (negative or not) about Le Pen.
However now the trend went back to "normal" and people just mocking and starting to realize that it's not normal Le Pen is considered to be at 40% (so high) while she has no plan whatsoever and is a proper idiot (her Dad at least was smart even if he had shitty principles and ideas).

BTW: Macron destroyed Le Pen during the debate and she even looked like a proper idiot (no understanding or business, politics and no plan).

 Last edit: 05/05/2017 10:07

BadGoNe   France. May 05 2017 10:19. Posts 1089

Summary of the debate from few articles:

NY Times
Financial Times
BBC


Liquid`Drone   Norway. May 05 2017 10:39. Posts 3093


  On May 05 2017 02:35 Baalim wrote:
No, you didnt just say a bet on Macron are good, you literally said her odds were 1 in 200 to win, and that would probably make it the best bet in history if it pays 1/5 (in which conveniently you have not a cent in).

Its the 99.5% that shows me your bias, the people giving Hillary 99% to win were liberal because that is what they want to happen its normal to overestimate the likelyhood of something happening when we want it to happen, MLP supporters probably think she is a favorite or close to a win, Macron supporters think he has 99%+ to win and usually the truth lies somewhere in between.



If I had a bunch of money, I'd bet. I don't. The offer of 1:1 $50 on Macron getting 58% or more stands. This is a MUCH better deal than 5:1 on her getting 50.1%.

Anyway, I do indeed think Macron's winning chances are in the 'above 99%' region. But I'm not arguing against someone saying "no, it's actually in the 98% region'. That might well be more correct. I don't really care. I'm arguing against the idea that it's close to 1:5. Also, I have not seen a single MLP supporter who actually think she's a favorite, only a couple who think 5:1 is a seemingly a good deal, but I honestly think that's just because they're completely politically ignorant - and I don't base that on them supporting her, which is fair enough.. You still have not commented on a single factoid I've posted about the polls, or given your own estimate. How, how on earth is she going to gain 20 points in 2 days when she, at best, has gained like 2 points over the past 2 months?

lol POKERLast edit: 05/05/2017 10:52

Liquid`Drone   Norway. May 05 2017 10:50. Posts 3093

Like seriously.. I understand that 200:1 is a huge statement, but like, from where can her voters come? They are tracking this stuff. They already had one round of elections. Macron got more voters than her. And she performed worse than her polls indicated that she would, which means that the idea that she's suddenly going to outperform the polls by 20% now is ridiculous. Then they've asked the voters who voted for every single other candidate who they prefer over Macron vs Le Pen in round 2. And from every single party, once again with the exception for Nicolas Dupont Aignan who got 4.5%, a large majority goes to Macron. A large group of Melenchon voters are gonna abstain, but you know what? Every single one of them could, and Macron would still have a significant lead. Only like 25% of Fillon's voters are voting for Le Pen.

lol POKER 

BadGoNe   France. May 05 2017 11:51. Posts 1089

Drone, it's still more complex than what you are saying.
Not all voters from other candidates from 1st round will vote Macron. It's not a given and that's why MLP is estimated to be at 40%.
Also needs to take into account the abstention which only plays in favor of MLP. A lot of voters will vote Macron by default choice but also quite a big chunk of them won't vote at all or blank or are still simply undecided.

I agree though that Macron's win is probably a given so his odds of winning are very high but imo it's not as big as you might make it sound it is

 Last edit: 05/05/2017 11:55

Liquid`Drone   Norway. May 05 2017 12:07. Posts 3093

I know not all. But a significant majority from all. Most recent poll has Fillon's voters at 45% Macron, 32% Le Pen, 23% abstain. Melenchon 54% Macron, 14% Le Pen, 32% abstain. (Here, it's very possible that abstain numbers increase, say, to 40% or so). Hamon, 72% Macron, 7% Le Pen, 21% abstain.

Even if the 54% of melenchon voters who say that they are going to vote for Macron ALL abstain, and the 14% who say they are voting for Le Pen all vote, Macron still wins. That's how lopsided this is. She has to somehow flip Fillon voters (even though Fillon told his voters to vote for Macron), and she needs to make all melenchon voters abstain (there's no way more of them are going to actually vote for her), and she has to make this happen in a two day time span. And she has not at any point of the past two months had any significant upward trajectory. The random factor simply is not big enough for there to be any plausible way that she can win this.

Just look at this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion..._election,_2017#Macron.E2.80.93Le_Pen

These numbers are incredibly consistent. Le Pen gets around 40%, Macron around 60%. In every poll, for a long period of time. Her floor is 37%, her ceiling is 41%. There's no path to 50%.

lol POKERLast edit: 05/05/2017 12:13

BadGoNe   France. May 05 2017 12:15. Posts 1089

She knows the easiest to flip are Fillon's voters. She even copied almost word for word a speech Fillon did during his campaign: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/02/wo...lection-le-pen-fillon-plagiarism.html


SleepyHead   . May 06 2017 04:46. Posts 878

There was a document leak reminiscent of Hillary. They're already claiming that some of the documents are fake

https://usat.ly/2peOBx2

Dude you some social darwinist ideas that they are giving hitlers ghost a boner - Baal 

Liquid`Drone   Norway. May 07 2017 19:11. Posts 3093

first results give Macron 65 vs Le Pen 35. Lol.

lol POKER 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. May 07 2017 20:55. Posts 9634


  On May 07 2017 18:11 Liquid`Drone wrote:
first results give Macron 65 vs Le Pen 35. Lol.



Yeah he s the president, the voting activity is the lowest since almost 40 years, which hurts Macron, and he still destroyed her, thats nice for the EU


lostaccount   Canada. May 08 2017 03:05. Posts 5739


  On May 07 2017 19:55 Spitfiree wrote:
Show nested quote +



Yeah he s the president, the voting activity is the lowest since almost 40 years, which hurts Macron, and he still destroyed her, thats nice for the the elites


fix your post

-_-;; 

FullBRing   Philippines. May 08 2017 05:47. Posts 581

SHIP IT !


 
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