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French election 23/04

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FullBRing   Philippines. Apr 18 2017 08:28. Posts 581

i know no one really gives a fuck about french election, but this election is special.
Le pen, populist far right candidate as a real shot at becoming elected. If its the case, Europe is basically fucked. And that would be just the beginning !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkZir1L7fSY

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 Last edit: 18/04/2017 08:32

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 18 2017 08:47. Posts 9634

Its the Trump test of Europe. An imbecile,maniac that no one believes would get elected has a real chance, and would be completely catastrophic to the whole continent.


Baalim   Mexico. Apr 18 2017 08:59. Posts 34246

On the contrary I think many of us are very interested because as you said it might have strong repercussions to the future of the E.U.

Obviously she seems like a nasty and racist lady and again the left has pushed so hard for so long centrist people will start choosing these demagoges to push back.

I wonder what would be the real long-term repercussions of a disbandment of the E.U. because many countries didnt fair very well under it, I'm not knowledable enough on the subject to have a proper opinion, but I'm pretty sure almost everyone who has an opinion have no fucking clue wtf they are talking about and they will make emotional and reductionist arguments instead of grasping the complexity of such a thing.

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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 18 2017 13:42. Posts 9634

I don't think that anyone is aware of how a disbandment of the EU would happen let alone talk about future repercussions. You could always say random stuff like " financial collapse, raise of insecurity in governments, raise of abuse of human rights" and blah blah, but the truth is its such a complex system I don't think a single man can have an opinion that matters.

I don't think the British are still aware of the consequences, they tried to negotiate terms in which they would be as if a fellow EU state, but on their own beliefs( e.g. would ban immigrants from Eastern Europe),, which obviously won't and shouldn't happen. If anything the EU will make em an example and treat them like any other country with tariffs and import taxes.

If Le Pen is voted in, at best, she will push for major right reforms in the EU, at worst she will push a FRexit, which if accepted in France, would mean the end of the EU. If either France or Germany leaves the EU, it is done.

The good part of this election is that if Le Pen loses then the populist tendencies worldwide will suffer a major loss and would lose momentum, which would be fucking great.


Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 18 2017 14:47. Posts 3093

her victory is less likely than Trump's victory was, and that was shocking. She loses in the second election against everyone, significantly so even against Melenchon. Macron vs Le Pen seems like the most probable first round outcome, and looking at polls, she's never done better than 42% vs 58% - but there's also a 29% vs 71% out there. Average seems to be like 37-63. Sure, 2016 showed that polls aren't all that reliable, but 1) my understanding is that France has a history of correctly estimating FN's numbers in the past and 2) neither Trump nor Brexit beat the polls by even close to the numbers she would have to beat them with.

If it somehow ended up with Fillon vs Le Pen, that gives her a very fair shot, but that seems extremely unlikely.



The EU is indeed complex and anyone claiming it's only negative or only positive doesn't know wtf they're talking about. Salaries and worker rights for unskilled labor in wealthy european countries has deteriorated as a consequence of EU membership and freedom of movement of labor. The EU hardly feels democratic, more like a faceless bureaucracy influenced by lobbyism. Lots of other legit arguments against also, mostly relating to national sovereignty being overridden.

At the same time, being able to freely travel between all member states is fucking fantastic. And EU membership has done wonders economically for the former soviet bloc countries. Norway is not a member, and personally I feel rather indifferent about whether Norway should be a member. (Being outside the EU, we still adopt most EU laws and regulations. Not being part essentially trades a largely meaningless voice in the EU parliament for a special veto power I think we've only utilized once. ) However having talked to several eastern europeans whose lives have been vastly improved as a direct consequence of EU membership, I am overall very positive towards the EU project, even if I sometimes really disagree with the structure of the EU organization and the political direction.

lol POKER 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 20 2017 21:35. Posts 9634

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-shooting-idUSKBN17M2I8

I really hoped something like this wouldn't happen before the elections, sadly it did


Baalim   Mexico. Apr 23 2017 00:22. Posts 34246


  On April 18 2017 13:47 Liquid`Drone wrote:
her victory is less likely than Trump's victory was, and that was shocking. She loses in the second election against everyone, significantly so even against Melenchon. Macron vs Le Pen seems like the most probable first round outcome, and looking at polls, she's never done better than 42% vs 58% - but there's also a 29% vs 71% out there. Average seems to be like 37-63. Sure, 2016 showed that polls aren't all that reliable, but 1) my understanding is that France has a history of correctly estimating FN's numbers in the past and 2) neither Trump nor Brexit beat the polls by even close to the numbers she would have to beat them with.

If it somehow ended up with Fillon vs Le Pen, that gives her a very fair shot, but that seems extremely unlikely.



The EU is indeed complex and anyone claiming it's only negative or only positive doesn't know wtf they're talking about. Salaries and worker rights for unskilled labor in wealthy european countries has deteriorated as a consequence of EU membership and freedom of movement of labor. The EU hardly feels democratic, more like a faceless bureaucracy influenced by lobbyism. Lots of other legit arguments against also, mostly relating to national sovereignty being overridden.

At the same time, being able to freely travel between all member states is fucking fantastic. And EU membership has done wonders economically for the former soviet bloc countries. Norway is not a member, and personally I feel rather indifferent about whether Norway should be a member. (Being outside the EU, we still adopt most EU laws and regulations. Not being part essentially trades a largely meaningless voice in the EU parliament for a special veto power I think we've only utilized once. ) However having talked to several eastern europeans whose lives have been vastly improved as a direct consequence of EU membership, I am overall very positive towards the EU project, even if I sometimes really disagree with the structure of the EU organization and the political direction.



Part of the miscalculation of Trump on the polls was that many people didnt feel comfortably to open support him, this could happen with Le Pen, and also if a considerable terrorist attacks happens close to elections that could make her win.

On the part of the EU I declare myself ignorant about it, I mean besides the obvious facts that having a consolidated currency gives much more power to make big commercial deals overseas that perhaps individual countries wouldnt have such a strong position, however this negotiating power seems to serve a very narrow group of very big corporations, I would be more interested in how the euro affects middle to small sized companies in terms of commerce particularly o outside of Europe

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nolan   Ireland. Apr 23 2017 22:30. Posts 6205

Probably gonna bet on Le Pen, gotta be a profitable bet.

On September 08 2008 10:07 Baal wrote: my head is a gyroscope, your argument is invalid 

GoTuNk   Chile. Apr 24 2017 03:02. Posts 2860


  On April 23 2017 21:30 nolan wrote:
Probably gonna bet on Le Pen, gotta be a profitable bet.


Will throw some bucks aswell, Trump already made me a few hundred bucks


VanDerMeyde   Norway. Apr 24 2017 07:24. Posts 5108

Why would Europe be fucked if Le Pen wins ? And the beginning to what ?

:DLast edit: 24/04/2017 18:37

FullBRing   Philippines. Apr 24 2017 17:58. Posts 581

Betting on lepen is a terrible bet. YOu can still bet on Macron for 1.20 wich is an amazing bet.


VanDerMeyde   Norway. Apr 24 2017 18:37. Posts 5108

Sports betting fishes !

:D 

waga   United Kingdom. Apr 24 2017 19:26. Posts 2375

indeed betting (and voting) Le Pen is stupid
source : am french


Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 24 2017 19:38. Posts 9634

At this point its safe to say VanDerMeyde is a troll bot that got derailed from social medias that matter


VanDerMeyde   Norway. Apr 24 2017 21:16. Posts 5108

So asking a question is trolling

:D 

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 24 2017 21:57. Posts 3093

Yeah, 1/7 on macron is an amazing bet. Le pen is throwing money out of the window. It's 12 days until the election.

Here's a picture for how Le Pen- Macron matchup has been going the last 3 months.



Those two lines are not about to suddenly meet up. We also know that she did not overperform her polls during round 1, so there's no reason to expect that she'll significantly overperform them in round two, even with Melenchon refusing to give his support to either candidate.

lol POKER 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 24 2017 22:18. Posts 9634

You are asking why the descendant of one of the trashiest politicians in Europe, who also kicked their father(the trashiest politician i had in mind) out of their party to make it look like the party is taking " a turn" ( obviously not really, just a publicity stunt), with ties to Russia ( not only does she publicly supports Russia, but the media campaign trolls from Russia are helping her so she s obviously Putin s "horse" ) and someone that campaigns for FRexit. That's on top of being a huge racist and a blatantly exposed liar ( then again which politician isnt a liar ). Sadly she had some, what seemed to me, good ideas at first regarding immigration laws, except she turned them into a clown fiesta pushing them into extreme lengths e.g. make it harder for employers to employ foreigners that do not have citizenship, which is fucking retarded for a country in the EU (maybe if a foreigner is better than you, then you don't deserve the job???, if its about salary rates, then she could always use other instruments to achieve the same goal). That being an assessment about her on not too many observations and articles. read.

Le Penn is the populist vote which would push all the dominos down in Europe and push the EU to disbandment and open the doors for Russia for strong influence on the continent again, which in my opinion is 10x worse than a EU disbandment as while countries thrived even without the union, under Russia's influence societies always suffer.

P.S. I too think nations like France and Germany are too smart to ever vote a populist to govern them though looking back at the last 100-150 years they should have learned their lesson , so hopefully im right.

 Last edit: 24/04/2017 22:21

Baalim   Mexico. Apr 25 2017 00:03. Posts 34246


  On April 24 2017 20:57 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Yeah, 1/7 on macron is an amazing bet. Le pen is throwing money out of the window. It's 12 days until the election.

Here's a picture for how Le Pen- Macron matchup has been going the last 3 months.



Those two lines are not about to suddenly meet up. We also know that she did not overperform her polls during round 1, so there's no reason to expect that she'll significantly overperform them in round two, even with Melenchon refusing to give his support to either candidate.



I'm having flashbacks lol.


A 5:1 bet on Le Pen doesnt seem bad, so far in Britain and the US the right-wing options have been extremely miscalculated by polls so I think it is naive not to take that heavily into consideration. a 1/7 bet on Macron seems awful to me (In before Macron wins and some idiot mentions how he was right on a 1/7 bet lol)

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Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 25 2017 00:11. Posts 3093

Here's a picture from round 1



Le Pen did worse in the election than in the polls. This is not even remotely comparable to brexit or Trump. Brexit was what, a 2-3% wrong margin?

I was certain Hillary was gonna win, but I am way, way more certain Macron is winning. Not gonna say 100%, but 99.5% seems totally reasonable. With Trump, there were periods of time where he was ahead or even in polls, there were outlier polls like rasmussen consistently giving him a better chance, there were lots of fluctuations, and Trump's victory ultimately hinged on winning the right states with the right margins. There hasn't been a poll giving her better than 42 vs 58 (whereas macron had a 71-29 one), this is about winning the popular vote, not the right districts, there are few significant fluctuations. There's no looming email scandal or whatever, either.. 5:1 is absolutely horrible for Le Pen. Make it 50:1 and I still wouldn't bet on her.

lol POKER 

Baalim   Mexico. Apr 25 2017 00:15. Posts 34246

If the EU dies its because of its stupid stubborness

I mean first Brexit, now 69% of people voting Le Pen said that immigration was their main issue and as we all can see that the right is gaining a lot of momentum, the newer generations appear to be much more conservatives than millenials so does the E.U. adapt to survive and drop its ridiculous stance on immigration and focus on economical and trade deals? No, they carry on like nothing is happening making themselves huge targets for nasty maniacs like Le Pen


I want to watch the left burn for their stubborn arrogance, for shoving centrists to the right to have a voice, hopefully from the ashes the demagoges leave reasonable politics and culture arises, but I wont be holding my breath.

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Baalim   Mexico. Apr 25 2017 00:27. Posts 34246


  On April 24 2017 23:11 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Not gonna say 100%, but 99.5% seems totally reasonable... 5:1 is absolutely horrible for Le Pen. Make it 50:1 and I still wouldn't bet on her.




Please Eri show us the ticket where you bet your net worth on Macron, otherwise you are just spitting dumb shit come on -_-

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Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 25 2017 00:34. Posts 3093

I don't have any free cash atm (I guess I have about $1000 that I could go without the next 12 days) and I'm not gonna sell my apartment to get any, that'd take more time than that anyway. But if I had $2 million and a bookmaker let me place $1 million on Macron, giving me $1160000 for him winning, I'd do that in a heartbeat. well not in a heartbeat cuz I'm not really a gambler, but I have a hard time seeing better value for your money. I just don't have enough for it to be worth the bother, kinda.

lol POKERLast edit: 25/04/2017 00:39

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 25 2017 00:36. Posts 3093

I'll bet $50, 1:1 with the first taker, that Macron gets more than 58%. Anyone who thinks Le Pen's chance of actually winning is greater than 20% should jump at this.

lol POKERLast edit: 25/04/2017 00:37

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 25 2017 00:51. Posts 3093

From an Ifop poll:
Ifop also asked directly who supporters of candidates defeated in the first round would vote for in the runoff. Among Fillon supporters, 37 percent broke for Macron with 32 percent for Le Pen, while 31 percent wouldn’t answer. Among Melenchon supporters, 48 percent said Macron, 9 percent Le Pen, and 43 percent had no answer. Hamon voters would go 71 percent for Macron, 3 percent Le Pen, and 26 percent declined to say.

Looking at those numbers quickly (approximating); Fillon gives 7% to Macron, 6% to le pen
Melenchon gives 9.5 to Macron, 2% Le pen
Hamon gives 5% Macron, 0% Le pen
so for decided voters it's pretty much 45.5:30

Le Pen is hated outside her base. And she needs more than 80% of the currently not decided base (and more of the not-decided base is on the left). There's just no way. IS could destroy the Eiffel Tower tomorrow and she'd still lose.

lol POKERLast edit: 25/04/2017 00:53

whamm!   Albania. Apr 25 2017 01:23. Posts 11625

So you anti-le pen folks like what France has become? I don't get it
Or is it Le Pen's or a.k.a. people like Trump/Farrage/Wilder/Hitler/Stalin that caused great outrage from Muslims so they deserve what's coming


Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 25 2017 01:48. Posts 3093

It's not like France is doing all that poorly. Look at this : http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/trends

Human development index compiled over time.
The HDI isn't flawless of course, but it's about the best attempt at quantifying living standards there is. Today, France is in 21th place. In 1990, they were about the same. Done slightly better than most comparable countries since 2010. I'm not saying that people have no reason to be discontent, but like.. The US has had a much worse trajectory over the past 25 years. France's annual improvement has been better than Norway's, both if you compare to the 1990 or 2010 point of departure. Yes, terrorism has become a real problem, yes, youth unemployment is high. Both need to be addressed. But living standards are still improving, the whole, portrayal of western society as if it's going to complete shit, when by any objective measurement living standards are continuously rising throughout the entire not-war-torn world, is ridiculous.

Yeah I know it stops at 2015 and yes terrorism has obviously become a bigger problem since then, but man, have some perspective.

lol POKER 

FullBRing   Philippines. Apr 25 2017 04:15. Posts 581

Not even gonna start answering to whamm.
MIpwnya and i bet on macron before first round quite heavily and am about to bet again. It is definitely a lock


Baalim   Mexico. Apr 25 2017 05:09. Posts 34246


  On April 25 2017 00:48 Liquid`Drone wrote:
It's not like France is doing all that poorly. Look at this : http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/trends

Human development index compiled over time.
The HDI isn't flawless of course, but it's about the best attempt at quantifying living standards there is. Today, France is in 21th place. In 1990, they were about the same. Done slightly better than most comparable countries since 2010. I'm not saying that people have no reason to be discontent, but like.. The US has had a much worse trajectory over the past 25 years. France's annual improvement has been better than Norway's, both if you compare to the 1990 or 2010 point of departure. Yes, terrorism has become a real problem, yes, youth unemployment is high. Both need to be addressed. But living standards are still improving, the whole, portrayal of western society as if it's going to complete shit, when by any objective measurement living standards are continuously rising throughout the entire not-war-torn world, is ridiculous.

Yeah I know it stops at 2015 and yes terrorism has obviously become a bigger problem since then, but man, have some perspective.



I dont know about the state of France but HDI shows a 2015 0.7 growth on Venezuela, which makes me believe its an useless metric.

I'll let you off the hook on the 99.5% bullshit but only this time 8)

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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 25 2017 08:08. Posts 9634


  On April 25 2017 00:23 whamm! wrote:
So you anti-le pen folks like what France has become? I don't get it
Or is it Le Pen's or a.k.a. people like Trump/Farrage/Wilder/Hitler/Stalin that caused great outrage from Muslims so they deserve what's coming



Your reasoning is terrible. If the previous leader failed people should instantly vote for the right-wing populist crap option? World doesn't work with two pole views.


Edit: not to mention its Bush that started current events in Mid East, who is part of Trump's party so...

 Last edit: 25/04/2017 19:43

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 25 2017 08:09. Posts 3093

Look at this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

In round 1, Chirac got 19.88%, 5.6 million votes.
Jean Marie Le Pen got 16.86%., 4.8 million votes. The other 63% were divided between 13 other candidates.

In round 2, Chirac got 82.21%, 25.5 million votes.
Jean Marie Le Pen got 17.79%, 5.5 million votes.

Now, Marine Le Pen is more palatable to more people than her dad was. And yes the political climate changes over 15 years. But there are still so many french voters who will absolutely always reject Le Pen that she has no shot at this.

lol POKER 

VanDerMeyde   Norway. Apr 25 2017 09:51. Posts 5108

the betting sites obviously know all of this before they set their odds. Well at least normally, maybe when there is politics it's a bit different than sports. But I would assume they know all of this and more.. and still decided 1.20 is +ev by some margin

:DLast edit: 25/04/2017 09:53

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 25 2017 10:41. Posts 3093

People who gamble want high rewards for low risks. I mean, professional gamblers go for low margins and any +ev, but the regular guy doesn't look for a way to turn his $1000 into $1150, he looks for a way of turning his $100 into $1000+. So people aren't taking the macron bet even though it's massively +ev. And they don't want to risk huge payouts if there actually ends up being a Le Pen victory. I mean the fact that this forum with professional gamblers has people thinking that 5:1 on Le Pen is a good deal showcases how they can be profitable, because that is an ass horrible deal. Then in politics, much like sports, people are more likely to bet on candidates they support.

But like, okay. So any of you thinking that she has a chance. Read my posts, read the graphs, read the polls. What's her road to 50.1% of the votes? How is there a 20% chance of that happening? She's 25% behind with 11 days to go. I literally don't know if there has ever been an important election, at least not in a western country, where this kind of margin was changed in that time span.

lol POKER 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 25 2017 19:45. Posts 9634

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-39705062


enough of a reason to vote for him


Baalim   Mexico. Apr 26 2017 03:05. Posts 34246


  On April 25 2017 09:41 Liquid`Drone wrote:
People who gamble want high rewards for low risks. I mean, professional gamblers go for low margins and any +ev, but the regular guy doesn't look for a way to turn his $1000 into $1150, he looks for a way of turning his $100 into $1000+. So people aren't taking the macron bet even though it's massively +ev. And they don't want to risk huge payouts if there actually ends up being a Le Pen victory. I mean the fact that this forum with professional gamblers has people thinking that 5:1 on Le Pen is a good deal showcases how they can be profitable, because that is an ass horrible deal. Then in politics, much like sports, people are more likely to bet on candidates they support.

But like, okay. So any of you thinking that she has a chance. Read my posts, read the graphs, read the polls. What's her road to 50.1% of the votes? How is there a 20% chance of that happening? She's 25% behind with 11 days to go. I literally don't know if there has ever been an important election, at least not in a western country, where this kind of margin was changed in that time span.



it isnt so simple otherwise betting on favourites every time would print money

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Baalim   Mexico. Apr 26 2017 03:06. Posts 34246


  On April 25 2017 18:45 Spitfiree wrote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-39705062


enough of a reason to vote for him



except that last time it turned to be out bullshit

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truthbomb   Belgium. Apr 26 2017 11:04. Posts 8

when in doubt, blame Russia.


VanDerMeyde   Norway. Apr 26 2017 15:12. Posts 5108


  On April 26 2017 02:05 Baalim wrote:
Show nested quote +



it isnt so simple otherwise betting on favourites every time would print money


Yup. If you play a lot of live poker you hear about these "amazing bets" every night from the fun players. To me its funny that people acctually believe their information is not already calculated into the odds. If you think the odds is in your favour its way more likely there are factors you havent thought about (but the betting sites did) than you acctually found a +EV bet. The kind of bets i like more is 8 betting sites giving f.example 1.20 and then you find another scin giving 1.40. Its likely the 8 sites got information that the site nr 9 didnt have (yet). But still, if you make a bet against the house you should probably always consider it as "fun", not as "+EV".

:DLast edit: 26/04/2017 15:20

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Apr 26 2017 15:30. Posts 3093

I'm not saying this principle holds true in general. But the explanation for the 1/6 for macron or 5:1 for le pen is not that this represents how likely they are to win, and I tried to come up with an alternative. If bookmakers overall think that the actual chance for a Le Pen victory is in the 15-20% range, they're clueless.

lol POKER 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 26 2017 18:16. Posts 9634

Its not like they base their odds purely on the chances of the outcome... They try to hedge themselves and put such odds that whatever happens they've profited. I have no clue about the mathematics behind that, but 1.2 coef doesnt represent their belief of 20% chance for Le Pen to win


JonnyCosMo   United States. Apr 26 2017 19:37. Posts 7292

Not sure if this entire thread is trying to mush Macron.

Everyone needs to see that you are king of the castle - PoorUser 

Baalim   Mexico. May 05 2017 00:55. Posts 34246


  On April 26 2017 14:30 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I'm not saying this principle holds true in general. But the explanation for the 1/6 for macron or 5:1 for le pen is not that this represents how likely they are to win, and I tried to come up with an alternative. If bookmakers overall think that the actual chance for a Le Pen victory is in the 15-20% range, they're clueless.



bookmakers set the line, then actual bets sway the line usually its pretty accurate but the more emotion is put into the event the less accurate it is and there is a lot in emotion in politics, for example you gave LePen a 0.5% chance to win, which shows your obvious emotional bias.

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Baalim   Mexico. May 05 2017 00:55. Posts 34246

and Macron just said that LePen voters are the real enemies of france

He might be 99% to win, but he sure is trying hard to repeat Hillarys mistakes.

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Liquid`Drone   Norway. May 05 2017 01:43. Posts 3093


  On May 04 2017 23:55 Baalim wrote:
Show nested quote +



bookmakers set the line, then actual bets sway the line usually its pretty accurate but the more emotion is put into the event the less accurate it is and there is a lot in emotion in politics, for example you gave LePen a 0.5% chance to win, which shows your obvious emotional bias.




Nope. If not for 2016 fucking with everyone's rationality, nobody would think she has much more than a 0.5%. I mean, I'm not actually debating whether it's 0.5%, 1% or 2%, or even 3% (which is the highest figure I've seen from any analyst), I'm just saying that the 15-20% bookies apparently worked with is completely ridiculous and miles off.

I have not seen a single argument for why MLP has a shot at this that isn't 'lol but this is what people said about Trump or Brexit' and every single person who makes that argument seems completely oblivious to several facts: Brexit polls were off by 2-3%. Trump was occasionally polling ahead. He lost the popular vote but because of the EC he still won more delegates. Polls in the US had huge variations. There were lots of uncertainties, and while you had the Sam Wang from princeton model saying it was 99% likely that Hillary would win, there were also several guys saying 'my model which has correctly predicted every election since 1980 says Trump wins', and Nate Silver was like, 75-25. (Regarding the french election, silver places it at between 1% and 3% for a MLP win btw. I think that's high also, but my posts in this thread have all been spurred by people believing that 5:1 is a good bet on her.)

I don't feel like repeating myself anymore. Giving her a 20% chance is fucking ridiculous. Professional gamblers really should know better. If someone offered you 33:1 odds, I wouldn't take that myself, but I also wouldn't bother arguing against taking the bet, because that's fair enough.

One week ago, when I posted most of my posts in this thread, election was 2 weeks away and she was down by 20-22 points. Now, it's 1 week away, and she's down by 20-22 points. She did worse than polls indicated in round 1. Not a single poll, at any time, from any sample size, has given her more than 42%. She lost round 1 to Macron, and voters from every single other party, with the exception for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's 4.5%, are by large majorities going to Macron.

What do you think her chances are, and how did you reach that conclusion?

lol POKER 

Baalim   Mexico. May 05 2017 03:35. Posts 34246

No, you didnt just say a bet on Macron are good, you literally said her odds were 1 in 200 to win, and that would probably make it the best bet in history if it pays 1/5 (in which conveniently you have not a cent in).

Its the 99.5% that shows me your bias, the people giving Hillary 99% to win were liberal because that is what they want to happen its normal to overestimate the likelyhood of something happening when we want it to happen, MLP supporters probably think she is a favorite or close to a win, Macron supporters think he has 99%+ to win and usually the truth lies somewhere in between.

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BadGoNe   France. May 05 2017 10:06. Posts 1089

After 1st round results, Macron was on his way to win easy (like Chirac in 2002 with 82% vs 18%) but then he got kinda screwed by the media/other politicians.
They did not rally behind him and even some dumbasses suggested to vote "blank". Not all of them recommended to vote Macron.

For example Mélanchon... who said he doesn't like Macron's plan but then say this doesn't mean he suggests to vote Le Pen. He basically said: vote whoever you think is best.

So all this mess benefited Le Pen and that's why she is "close" with 40% vs 60%. If people would have been smart, she would be like her dad: 20% vs 80%.
It was a pain to see on French social media, people all criticizing Macron (because they would have preferred another contestant to face Le Pen in 2nd round) BUT then very few posts (negative or not) about Le Pen.
However now the trend went back to "normal" and people just mocking and starting to realize that it's not normal Le Pen is considered to be at 40% (so high) while she has no plan whatsoever and is a proper idiot (her Dad at least was smart even if he had shitty principles and ideas).

BTW: Macron destroyed Le Pen during the debate and she even looked like a proper idiot (no understanding or business, politics and no plan).

 Last edit: 05/05/2017 10:07

BadGoNe   France. May 05 2017 10:19. Posts 1089

Summary of the debate from few articles:

NY Times
Financial Times
BBC


Liquid`Drone   Norway. May 05 2017 10:39. Posts 3093


  On May 05 2017 02:35 Baalim wrote:
No, you didnt just say a bet on Macron are good, you literally said her odds were 1 in 200 to win, and that would probably make it the best bet in history if it pays 1/5 (in which conveniently you have not a cent in).

Its the 99.5% that shows me your bias, the people giving Hillary 99% to win were liberal because that is what they want to happen its normal to overestimate the likelyhood of something happening when we want it to happen, MLP supporters probably think she is a favorite or close to a win, Macron supporters think he has 99%+ to win and usually the truth lies somewhere in between.



If I had a bunch of money, I'd bet. I don't. The offer of 1:1 $50 on Macron getting 58% or more stands. This is a MUCH better deal than 5:1 on her getting 50.1%.

Anyway, I do indeed think Macron's winning chances are in the 'above 99%' region. But I'm not arguing against someone saying "no, it's actually in the 98% region'. That might well be more correct. I don't really care. I'm arguing against the idea that it's close to 1:5. Also, I have not seen a single MLP supporter who actually think she's a favorite, only a couple who think 5:1 is a seemingly a good deal, but I honestly think that's just because they're completely politically ignorant - and I don't base that on them supporting her, which is fair enough.. You still have not commented on a single factoid I've posted about the polls, or given your own estimate. How, how on earth is she going to gain 20 points in 2 days when she, at best, has gained like 2 points over the past 2 months?

lol POKERLast edit: 05/05/2017 10:52

Liquid`Drone   Norway. May 05 2017 10:50. Posts 3093

Like seriously.. I understand that 200:1 is a huge statement, but like, from where can her voters come? They are tracking this stuff. They already had one round of elections. Macron got more voters than her. And she performed worse than her polls indicated that she would, which means that the idea that she's suddenly going to outperform the polls by 20% now is ridiculous. Then they've asked the voters who voted for every single other candidate who they prefer over Macron vs Le Pen in round 2. And from every single party, once again with the exception for Nicolas Dupont Aignan who got 4.5%, a large majority goes to Macron. A large group of Melenchon voters are gonna abstain, but you know what? Every single one of them could, and Macron would still have a significant lead. Only like 25% of Fillon's voters are voting for Le Pen.

lol POKER 

BadGoNe   France. May 05 2017 11:51. Posts 1089

Drone, it's still more complex than what you are saying.
Not all voters from other candidates from 1st round will vote Macron. It's not a given and that's why MLP is estimated to be at 40%.
Also needs to take into account the abstention which only plays in favor of MLP. A lot of voters will vote Macron by default choice but also quite a big chunk of them won't vote at all or blank or are still simply undecided.

I agree though that Macron's win is probably a given so his odds of winning are very high but imo it's not as big as you might make it sound it is

 Last edit: 05/05/2017 11:55

Liquid`Drone   Norway. May 05 2017 12:07. Posts 3093

I know not all. But a significant majority from all. Most recent poll has Fillon's voters at 45% Macron, 32% Le Pen, 23% abstain. Melenchon 54% Macron, 14% Le Pen, 32% abstain. (Here, it's very possible that abstain numbers increase, say, to 40% or so). Hamon, 72% Macron, 7% Le Pen, 21% abstain.

Even if the 54% of melenchon voters who say that they are going to vote for Macron ALL abstain, and the 14% who say they are voting for Le Pen all vote, Macron still wins. That's how lopsided this is. She has to somehow flip Fillon voters (even though Fillon told his voters to vote for Macron), and she needs to make all melenchon voters abstain (there's no way more of them are going to actually vote for her), and she has to make this happen in a two day time span. And she has not at any point of the past two months had any significant upward trajectory. The random factor simply is not big enough for there to be any plausible way that she can win this.

Just look at this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion..._election,_2017#Macron.E2.80.93Le_Pen

These numbers are incredibly consistent. Le Pen gets around 40%, Macron around 60%. In every poll, for a long period of time. Her floor is 37%, her ceiling is 41%. There's no path to 50%.

lol POKERLast edit: 05/05/2017 12:13

BadGoNe   France. May 05 2017 12:15. Posts 1089

She knows the easiest to flip are Fillon's voters. She even copied almost word for word a speech Fillon did during his campaign: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/02/wo...lection-le-pen-fillon-plagiarism.html


SleepyHead   . May 06 2017 04:46. Posts 878

There was a document leak reminiscent of Hillary. They're already claiming that some of the documents are fake

https://usat.ly/2peOBx2

Dude you some social darwinist ideas that they are giving hitlers ghost a boner - Baal 

Liquid`Drone   Norway. May 07 2017 19:11. Posts 3093

first results give Macron 65 vs Le Pen 35. Lol.

lol POKER 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. May 07 2017 20:55. Posts 9634


  On May 07 2017 18:11 Liquid`Drone wrote:
first results give Macron 65 vs Le Pen 35. Lol.



Yeah he s the president, the voting activity is the lowest since almost 40 years, which hurts Macron, and he still destroyed her, thats nice for the EU


lostaccount   Canada. May 08 2017 03:05. Posts 5738


  On May 07 2017 19:55 Spitfiree wrote:
Show nested quote +



Yeah he s the president, the voting activity is the lowest since almost 40 years, which hurts Macron, and he still destroyed her, thats nice for the the elites


fix your post

-_-;; 

FullBRing   Philippines. May 08 2017 05:47. Posts 581

SHIP IT !


 



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