UFC FN 88: Almeida vs. Garbrandt

Date: Sunday, May 29th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 02:00 LP.net / 6pm PST / 9pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Thomas Almeida (20-0) vs. Cody Garbrandt (8-0) (Bantamweight)
Renan Barao (33-3) vs. Jeremy Stephens (24-12) (Featherweight)
Tarec Saffiedine (16-4) vs. Rick Story (18-8) (Welterweight)
Chris Camozzi (23-10) vs. Vitor Miranda (12-4) (Middleweight)
Jorge Masvidal (29-10) vs. Lorenz Larkin (16-5) (Welterweight)
Josh Burkman (28-12) vs. Paul Felder (11-2) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Sara McMann (8-3) vs. Jessica Eye (11-4) (Women's Bantamweight)
Abel Trujillo (14-6) vs. Jordan Rinaldi (12-4) (Lightweight)
Jake Collier (9-3) vs. Alberto Uda (9-0) (Middleweight)
Erik Koch (14-4) vs. Shane Campbell (12-4) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Aljamain Sterling (12-0) vs. Bryan Caraway (20-7) (Bantamweight)
Chris De La Rocha (4-1) vs. Adam Milstead (7-1) (Heavyweight)

Other

- Keith Berish was very briefly linked to a bout with Jake Collier at the event. However, Berish pulled out due to injury on March 31 and was replaced by promotional newcomer Alberto Uda.
- Joe Proctor was expected to face Erik Koch at the event. However, Proctor pulled out of the fight on April 21 citing injury and was replaced by Shane Campbell.
- Carlos Diego Ferreira was expected to face Abel Trujillo, but was pulled from the event on May 13 due to a potential USADA anti-doping violation stemming from a recent out-of-competition sample collection. In accordance with the UFC Anti-Doping Policy, Ferreira has received a provisional suspension. Additional violation information will be provided at the appropriate time as the process moves forward. He was replaced by promotional newcomer Jordan Rinaldi.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Garbrandt > Almeida
• Barao > Stephens
• Story > Saffiedine
• Miranda > Camozzi
• Larkin > Masvidal
• Felder > Burkman
• McMann > Eye
• Trujillo > Rinaldi
• Collier vs. Uda (dunno)
• Campbell > Koch
• Sterling > Caraway
• Rocha vs. Milstead (dunno)

This card delivers.

Pretty decent for a fight night.

Agree, nice card.

Agree with all the picks except the main and co-main. I think they are very close fights but I lean Almeida and Stephens.

Barao is obviously faster and more technical but I have a feeling the minute Stephens lands even somewhat clean it's gonna hurt Renan whereas Jeremy is durable as hell.

I'm beginning to think Masvidal is being underrated here, hes very game.

I'm on garbrandt here

Taken from some guy's post at another website: "I’m no longer very pumped for this fight. Dr. Johnny Benjamin was very vocal this morning on Twitter regarding his surprise at the NSAC clearing Story to compete after a 2 level cervical disk replacement. Between that and Saffiedine barely being cleared at fight, this just isn’t anything close to being two healthy, in-their-prime contenders ready to compete."


You can read Benjamin's posts here: https://mobile.twitter.com/DrJCBenjam...oogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

I feel like a good counter boxer with power is a tough match up for Almeida, but at the same time Codys only fought 1 guy with a wiki page, Brimmage, who is 1-5 in his last 6 and it was a relatively competitive fight until Cody got the tko. Cody could have all kinds of holes in his game that we don't know about yet.

Barao vs Stephens is a pick em. Kind of a wild card with Barao because we don't know how good he'll be after those beatings TJ gave him. He took a lot of damage in those fights and the one fight in between looked very mediocre. The lack of one of the worst weight cuts in MMA might make him better though.

Think Tarec beats story if it happens. Better striking and good enough TDD to get it done.

Larkin beats Masvidal via overwhelming him with his power. Masvidal defense is slick but the power difference is too much.

Almeida > Garbrandt (too technical)
Barao > Stephens (don't doubt the heart of a champion)
Story vs Safferdine (Safferdine seems more stable mentally, don't know enough)
Mirranda vs Cammozi (Dont know enough)
Masvidal > Larkin (If I had to pick, Masvidal is scappy and doesnt fear strikers)
Felder > Burkman (close to a lock)
McMann > Eye (Seems like a good bet)
Campbell > Koch (Wouldn't bet it, but Campbell seems much better)

I think Almeida wins by KO. I see wild exchanges here and Almeida is pretty good at that, Garbrandt not so much.

I like Almeida here as well. Thought he handled the little bit of adversity against Pickett really well with composure and that was overlooked a bit due to the highlight reel KO that followed soon after so not quite as worried if Cody does catch him here and there while Thomas racks up more of the damage

Stephens > Barao just because Stephens is game as f and can't really back Barao until he actually shows how he does without his regular cut unless he was facing a chinny or fragile 145'er. And Stephens obv isn't that

Don't think you can really bet Tarec vs Story with all the health question marks for both fighters coming in. Would prob lean Story to grind out a split if forced

Think Larkin will use mainly a stick and move strat against Masvidal using what should be a noticeable hand speed advantage and should get the job done. Don't ever like betting much against Masvidal though since he sneakily gets his opponents to fight at his pace very often

[QUOTE]On May 27 2016 13:28 Minsk wrote:
Barao > Stephens (don't doubt the heart of a champion)
QUOTE]

This is going to be my generic, blanket reasoning for backing Weidman when he gets healthy again

On May 27 2016 13:28 Minsk wrote: Almeida > Garbrandt (too technical) Barao > Stephens (don't doubt the heart of a champion) Story vs Saffiedine (Saffiedine seems more stable mentally, don't know enough) Miranda vs Camozzi (Don't know enough) Masvidal > Larkin (If I had to pick, Masvidal is scrappy and doesn't fear strikers) Felder > Burkman (close to a lock) McMann > Eye (Seems like a good bet) Campbell > Koch (Wouldn't bet it, but Campbell seems much better)

- What area is Almeida more technical than Garbrandt in? Almeida uses punches and knees, but his punches aren't more technical than Garbrandt's. Almeida has the better BJJ, but he never uses it and he won't submit Garbrandt. Garbrandt has the wrestling advantage. Defensively and movement wise, Garbrandt is better.

- Yes, Barao is a former champion. However, he is coming off 2 brutal knockouts in 2 of his last 3 fights. He had a close fight against Mitch Gagnon before Gagnon gassed out and slowed down from pushing the pace in the first two rounds. Stephens will be taller, stronger, he hits harder, and has the better chin. Remember that Stephens was a 155'er for a long time before dropping to 145, while Barao was a lifelong 135'er who is coming up to 145 for the first time.

- "Masvidal is scrappy and doesn't fear strikers" = You just described Larkin. Larkin is the bigger, stronger, faster, more diverse striker who used to fight at 205 and 185, while Masvidal is a lifelong 155'er who recently came to 170. Larkin is more active with his strikes, and since Masvidal doesn't have 1-punch KO power, he will be able to be more active than his last fight. Masvidal is also notorious for giving away fights he thinks he's winning (it's been his biggest problem for many years).

- Felder isn't a lock at all. If Burkman has a good weight cut this time, Felder will look as square as his previous 2 fights.

- I think Campbell will win, but you can't really say he seems much better, mostly because Koch hasn't fought in almost 2 years, so we don't know how he'll look. Skill wise in MMA, Koch is much better, but Campbell is improving in every fight. Campbell's problem is that he's still "green" in MMA, so he'll lose to pretty much anyone in the top 10 right now, but he has a lot of potential. Once he works on his TDD a bit more, he'll be able to use his professional kickboxing skills and own a lot of fighters.

I think Stevens via KO is a good prop at +350, as well as Eye and Camozzi have value as moderate dogs.

I like Story and Almeida at the odds they are at as well.

I'm really confident that Almeida is going to get the W, probably by KO in the middle rounds, but I don't really have any good reason to feel so confident. I think its because Garbrandt was unimpressive vs Briones and Almeida has shown me that he gets better when the going gets tough and when he goes into 5th gear its scary stuff.

On May 28 2016 00:20 iakim322 wrote: [QUOTE]On May 27 2016 13:28 Minsk wrote: Barao > Stephens (don't doubt the heart of a champion) QUOTE] This is going to be my generic, blanket reasoning for backing Weidman when he gets healthy again

Ya solid, lol. But I can't talk.

It was subliminally my retarded reasoning when I lost over a grand on Weidman last year.

Consciously I had convinced myself he was better than Luke everywhere, but I was just fooling myself because I love the guy so much and thought he'd 'find a way' as long as it was a close fight.

Thomas Almeida (136) vs. Cody Garbrandt (135.5)
Renan Barao (146) vs. Jeremy Stephens (146)
Tarec Saffiedine (170) vs. Rick Story (171)
Chris Camozzi (186) vs. Vitor Miranda (186)
Lorenz Larkin (171) vs. Jorge Masvidal (170.5)
Josh Burkman (156) vs. Paul Felder (155.5)
Jessica Eye (134.5) vs. Sara McMann (135.5)
Jordan Rinaldi (156) vs. Abel Trujillo (155.5)
Jake Collier (185.5) vs. Alberto Uda (185)
Shane Campbell (156) vs. Erik Koch (155.5)
Bryan Caraway (135.5) vs. Aljamain Sterling (135.5)
Chris DeLaRocha (243) vs. Adam Milstead (235)

Stephens with the shove, homie don't play

On May 28 2016 01:37 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 27 2016 13:28 Minsk wrote: Almeida > Garbrandt (too technical) Barao > Stephens (don't doubt the heart of a champion) Story vs Saffiedine (Saffiedine seems more stable mentally, don't know enough) Miranda vs Camozzi (Don't know enough) Masvidal > Larkin (If I had to pick, Masvidal is scrappy and doesn't fear strikers) Felder > Burkman (close to a lock) McMann > Eye (Seems like a good bet) Campbell > Koch (Wouldn't bet it, but Campbell seems much better) - What area is Almeida more technical than Garbrandt in? Almeida uses punches and knees, but his punches aren't more technical than Garbrandt's. Almeida has the better BJJ, but he never uses it and he won't submit Garbrandt. Garbrandt has the wrestling advantage. Defensively and movement wise, Garbrandt is better. - Yes, Barao is a former champion. However, he is coming off 2 brutal knockouts in 2 of his last 3 fights. He had a close fight against Mitch Gagnon before Gagnon gassed out and slowed down from pushing the pace in the first two rounds. Stephens will be taller, stronger, he hits harder, and has the better chin. Remember that Stephens was a 155'er for a long time before dropping to 145, while Barao was a lifelong 135'er who is coming up to 145 for the first time. - "Masvidal is scrappy and doesn't fear strikers" = You just described Larkin. Larkin is the bigger, stronger, faster, more diverse striker who used to fight at 205 and 185, while Masvidal is a lifelong 155'er who recently came to 170. Larkin is more active with his strikes, and since Masvidal doesn't have 1-punch KO power, he will be able to be more active than his last fight. Masvidal is also notorious for giving away fights he thinks he's winning (it's been his biggest problem for many years). - Felder isn't a lock at all. If Burkman has a good weight cut this time, Felder will look as square as his previous 2 fights. - I think Campbell will win, but you can't really say he seems much better, mostly because Koch hasn't fought in almost 2 years, so we don't know how he'll look. Skill wise in MMA, Koch is much better, but Campbell is improving in every fight. Campbell's problem is that he's still "green" in MMA, so he'll lose to pretty much anyone in the top 10 right now, but he has a lot of potential. Once he works on his TDD a bit more, he'll be able to use his professional kickboxing skills and own a lot of fighters.

Thanks.

I didn't know about the natural weight difference. That definitely changes my mind with Larkin.
Agree completely about Barao, but in the end, I'm on the (don't doubt the heart of a champion) line and scared to bet against him.
Completely disagree and agree completely with Soberstone on Almeida.
Still think Felder is a lock.
Also think Campbell is actually better overall and Koch sucks, but he might be in a Barboza vs Pettis spot where his narrow skillset outclasses Campbells wider one.

On May 29 2016 00:41 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 28 2016 00:20 iakim322 wrote: [QUOTE]On May 27 2016 13:28 Minsk wrote: Barao > Stephens (don't doubt the heart of a champion) QUOTE] This is going to be my generic, blanket reasoning for backing Weidman when he gets healthy again Ya solid, lol. But I can't talk. It was subliminally my retarded reasoning when I lost over a grand on Weidman last year. Consciously I had convinced myself he was better than Luke everywhere, but I was just fooling myself because I love the guy so much and thought he'd 'find a way' as long as it was a close fight.

Well, there's your flaw right there. The thing is Rockhold is also a champion...lol.

My bets:

Almeida by KO (-105)
Barao by Decision (+213)
Malvidal (+105)
Sterling ITD (+228)

On May 29 2016 00:41 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 28 2016 00:20 iakim322 wrote: [QUOTE]On May 27 2016 13:28 Minsk wrote: Barao > Stephens (don't doubt the heart of a champion) QUOTE] This is going to be my generic, blanket reasoning for backing Weidman when he gets healthy again Ya solid, lol. But I can't talk. It was subliminally my retarded reasoning when I lost over a grand on Weidman last year. Consciously I had convinced myself he was better than Luke everywhere, but I was just fooling myself because I love the guy so much and thought he'd 'find a way' as long as it was a close fight.

I hadn't convinced myself he was better than Luke everywhere but I definitely remember thinking he could impose just his natural body strength/wrestling a bit more on Luke. But nope Luke mostly shucked him off fairly easily. Definitely was not paying attention to the fact that Luke coming into his prime is a just a beastly physical specimen to go along with his well roundedness. Saw a picture the other day of him in training and he's basically dwarfing Cormier and a cpl of the other heavies that DC was training with...ripped as fuck on top of all that mass and length. I feel bad for what's about to happen to Bisping.

And on that notion, I'm still a bit surprised at how little blowback Herb Dean got from that insanely late Weidman-Rockhold stoppage. People wanted to rip the lack of stoppages in the Lombard/Magny fight so much afterwards (and I mean...yeah fine...the ref prob shoulda prevented Hector from a few of the last blows)...but the actual damage done to Lombard was a joke compared to just like any picked 8 seconds of the last 35-40 seconds in rd 3 of the Weidman fight. I think Weidman elbow smashing Mark Munoz while the ref watched prevented Mark from ever being the same. I hope the same doesn't apply in reverse to Chris

1. Camozzi, Campbell, Garbrandt, Milstead, Trujillo ($27 team)
2. Campbell, Felder, Garbrandt, Milstead, Stephens
3. Barao, Burkman, Garbrandt, Milstead, Trujillo
4. Collier, Garbrandt, Milstead, Story, Trujillo
5. Campbell, Garbrandt, Stephens, Trujillo, Uda
6. Burkman, Campbell, Milstead, Stephens, Trujillo
7. Almeida, Burkman, Milstead, Stephens, Trujillo
8. Almeida, Campbell, Collier, Milstead, Story
9. Almeida, Camozzi, Milstead, Stephens, Uda
10. Almeida, Barao, Burkman, Miranda, Uda
11. Almeida, Campbell, Felder, Milstead, Rinaldi

Commercial during first round for anyone else? lol

Round 1: Rocha (24 significant strikes) vs. Milstead (32 ss's)
Round 2: Rocha (21 significant strikes) vs. Milstead (31 ss's)

Fucking crazy for a heavyweight fight that would've kept going if the referee didn't stop it. Rocha is going to end up with some severe brain damage if he keeps fighting, just cuz his chin is so good.

Damn what a display of chin. Makes me wonder how homielawncheck ko'd him under a minute.

2-1 Mr. Cupcake imo

Caraway 2-1

Sterling's full nelson in R1 was the only impressive thing he did on the ground in that round, and all it does is hold a fighter in the same position, it isn't going to submit anyone.

What? His entire ground control in round 1 was amazing on a really good grappler.

I got it a draw but I never expect the judges to.

My biggest bet of the night too

First time watching Sterling live. Weird saying how right Caraway was but Sterling is a great athlete...not really a fighter. Guy's facial expressions...over dramatic wincing from like 3 inch punches with no power on the ground from a light puncher in Caraway as soon as he faced any adversity...such a terrible sign for someone who was placed on a championship prospect level. Ship the mini points win for Caraway on DK for me tho

Really hope Weidman leaves Ray Longo training

On May 29 2016 22:58 Stim_Abuser wrote: What? His entire ground control in round 1 was amazing on a really good grappler. I got it a draw but I never expect the judges to.

Clear 2-1 for Caraway, imo.

Sterling never did any significant damage in R1, especially on the ground. He controlled Caraway hard in R1, but was never close to finishing him at any point. That full nelson looked cool, but it's not something that finishes a fight.

Essentially, both guys just controlled each other in all 3 rounds, but Caraway was the superior controller in R2 and R3.

Sterling noticeably slowed down after R1 was over. He got his 2nd wind in R3, but he eventually got taken down and had no answer once he was completely on his back.

Good win for Koch. Looked strong and sturdy after a long layoff

jesus... that first round... mcmann misses every punch by 30cm and eye isnt throwing anything

Eye should be cut like asap. Ended a whole 5 minute round having thrown 4 strikes of which 3 were 20% power jabs into the air in front of her with McNann not even remotely in range then barely showed any more urgency after that until she was actually pressed into possibly bad positions. So confused by what I just saw

On May 30 2016 00:42 ERASA wrote: jesus... that first round... mcmann misses every punch by 30cm and eye isnt throwing anything

McMann vs. Eye was worse than I originally expected it would be.

Jessica Eye is lucky that her teammate won the title and there's gonna be a UFC event in Ohio, or else she'd be fired.

Didnt think of it this way but makes sense.... maybe against correia?

2-1 Felder imo

Eye vs. Correia would be good because Correia would come forward and wouldn't let Eye stay on the outside and not do anything.

Should be 2-1 Felder but don't think he really showed the improvement that many just assumed he would make several fights ago. I guess burkman is quite underrated though so...cpl more chances Paul

Larkin 30-27 on my scorecard with every round being very close.

Good fight.

Larkin vs. Masvidal was fun. Better than Felder/Burkman, imo.

Really high quality fight between Larkin and Masvidal

Werdum vs. Rothwell at UFC 203. Same card as Miocic vs. Overeem.

Larkin's pure reaction time and quickness is retarded. He gets away with being out of position in the pocket so much

On May 30 2016 02:15 PuertoRican wrote: Werdum vs. Rothwell at UFC 203. Same card as Miocic vs. Overeem.

Should be interesting.

Gamebred vs Felder would be a great fight if Jorge wanted to cut back down

Feels like watching a JV league watching these two right after the high quality striking/feinting and athletisicm we just saw in Larkin/Masvidal

i feel stupid.. i thought miranda would smoke camozzi :/

On May 30 2016 02:39 ERASA wrote: i feel stupid.. i thought miranda would smoke camozzi :/

I originally had Miranda in most of my DK teams, but the only ended up having him in 1 team.

All Miranda has is kicks. He has no boxing skills, he gasses, and he's stationary. A basic striker like Camozzi exposed him, and Camozzi didn't even look as "good" as he usually looks versus pure strikers.

Easy fight for Rick Story as expected.

Story's style is terrible for Saffiedine's style.

feels like story edged every round but not by that much...

stevens looks like warmasters son, hope he gets KOd by Barao!

Brazilians are 0-2 thus far.

Let's hope the trend continues!

I got barao/almeida

1-1.. ohh ohh :/

2-1 barao (with bias)

Excellent fight.

I have it 29-28 for Barao.

Barao's chin is still there and that's huge for his prospects at 145. Very good to see.

Let's see if the judges agree.

I have it 2-1 for Stephens. Close fight, though.

Not surprised, judges always influenced by the fans.

I'd like to see the SS totals for round 3. The TD meant nothing to me but it seemed like Barao outlanded Stephens big time. Could be wrong.

I had Stephens but I also thought Barao edged it. But it was really close

Good for Barao who really looked great in spots

Same I picked Stephens, just thought Barao won.

War Almeida, need TKO for some solid DK $

WOWOWOW fuck

ohh wtf lol

Brazilians went 0-4 tonight!

No way are you beating American sluggers on Memorial Day weekend!

NO LOVE.

good card for me.

binked most

I made some decent coinage with my 4 main card teams. I'll post the entire result when it's available:

Felder, Garbrandt, Larkin, Stephens, Story (Main Card)
Almeida, Felder, Larkin, Stephens, Story (Main Card)
Burkman, Camozzi, Garbrandt, Stephens, Story (Main Card)
Almeida, Barao, Burkman, Miranda, Story (Main Card)

Great performance from Cody. That finishing sequence was really well done and in control the entire time. Patient with unloading even after hurting Thomas to the cage. Kinda half ruined a good night for me but oh well. Would be kinda funny if Faber pulls off the miracle against Cruz now

I just have a feeling brazilians stopped in time and are getting left behind in the sport. Each passing year our performance gets worse imo. Look at results from NU lately. They went from winning everything in 2012/2013 to losing almost every fight.

On May 30 2016 04:26 Raidern wrote: I just have a feeling brazilians stopped in time and are getting left behind in the sport. Each passing year our performance gets worse imo. Look at results from NU lately. They went from winning everything in 2012/2013 to losing almost every fight.

The 4 Brazilians on this card were matched against tough opponents.

- Uda just sucks, and he faced another guy who has terrible defense but far superior offense.
- Miranda only has kicks, has poor defense, and gasses. Camozzi just had to defense the head kick, which he did.
- Barao moved up from 135 for the first time and faced a relatively big 145 who spent most of his career at 155. Stephens also has the better chin and more power over Barao, and he has good TDD.
- Almeida was thought to be the best prospect in the division (by most, not by me). He has always had terrible defense, and has absorbed 20+ significant strikes in Round 1 in his first 4 UFC fights, and just absorbed 18 ss's in his 5th fight and got knocked out because he faced a guy who hits harder, is a better boxer and wrestler, and has better hand + foot movement and speed.

----------




Great night of fights!

Considering I underestimated Erik Koch and Shane Campbell didn't fight as good as I thought he'd fight, I managed to make some decent profit tonight. Aside from Koch winning by submissions, the majority of the fights went as I expected.

I invested $69 and won $193 = $124 profit.

I was completely wrong about Garbrandt vs Almeida. Even bought out of Garbrandt at a loss. But the rest was fine.

Had

Larkin ML
McMann ML
McMann x Eye O2.5
Garbrandt x Almeida U1.5
Felder ML
won all of them, and bought ouf of Garbrandt ML.
Just feel the worst ever at buyouts, every time I've arbed I've won, now I buy out at a loss and lose.

On May 30 2016 04:26 Raidern wrote: I just have a feeling brazilians stopped in time and are getting left behind in the sport. Each passing year our performance gets worse imo. Look at results from NU lately. They went from winning everything in 2012/2013 to losing almost every fight.

i think most were doing something and now with usada they havent adjusted yet. im sure they will be back soon

bottom line Felder fuckin sucks.. every time he fights he tends to annoy me more and more.

Even though I ended up betting him that decision was BS.

I also ended up betting Stephens, Garbrandt and Larkin which was awesome.. and FK U Felder Irish Dragon BS.

Edit: Doo Ho Choi vs Garbrandt would be a good match up imo

On May 30 2016 08:15 jvilla777 wrote: bottom line Felder fuckin sucks.. every time he fights he tends to annoy me more and more. Even though I ended up betting him that decision was BS. I also ended up betting Stephens, Garbrandt and Larkin which was awesome.. and FK U Felder Irish Dragon BS. Edit: Doo Ho Choi vs Garbrandt would be a good match up imo

I'd love this matchup, but I think Garbrandt wants and deserves a top 10 guy with a name. They should give him Caraway.