UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit - Page 2

On December 30 2015 21:45 iakim322 wrote: I still haven't seen Duffy fight. Should get on that soon before the event. Saw picture of Poirier somewhere recently though and he was looking like a borderline 170-185'er. Not sure what that will mean for this fight.

Definitely worth checking out, won't take long to see why the hype is there (adding onto the fact that he beat Conor, etc). He has looked tremendous. When Duffy gets into a rhythm on the feet, he looks God-Like. The issue is that his two UFC opponents, particularly Jake Lindsey, are glorified regional fighters. I was impressed with his bout with Jorge simply because he displayed the all-around goods.

The thing about those performances though, are that he faced zero adversity, wasn't tested defensively, and has obviously suffered the concussion since (which to me negates the obvious chin advantage that he would have on paper).

Also worth noting that the oddsmakers saw the huge influx of money on Duffy for the first fight, and didn't set the odds any wider for this fight. I know they are covered either way by the 2-way action that has come in but to me, this is a clear sign that are inducing fish action on Duffy early (which came), and the sharp money came in later on Duffy at +180 - +200 which I feel is far too wide.

I note this because I think we can make a lot more money this year by keying in on what the oddsmakers are intending when they set the lines, and simply betting at optimal times. The ROI difference would have been massive for me if I played certain fights at better times last year. Generally this means hitting favorites early and dogs late, but not always, and I do feel that it is predictable if enough wisdom is applied. Ofcourse I didn't put any of said strategy into practice for this card because I simply jumped the gun like a degenerate, but I have a clear plan for UFC FN 81 (the Dillashaw/Cruz card that is coming up) as far as who I will be slamming early, and what I will be looking to get my dogs or close favorties at.

When you think about it, the fight game is so different than NFL, Soccer, etc because those lines are set very accurately and only generally move 5-10 percent max, whereas MMA or Boxing odds regularly move 50-100 percent. Some of this can be attributed to the transparency and constant new information that we get as fight fans, but it doesn't account for the extreme movement. This in it of itself shows that MMA betting can be much more profitable if done optimally IMO.

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Prop plays I've made thus far:

Larkin round 2 +1000 $2 for $20
Larkin round 3 +1600 $2 for $32
Brandao round 1 +735 $5 for $36.75
Kanehara/McDonald ITD -155 $38.75 for $25
Dober submission +1025 $2 for $20.50
Sims round 3 +1200 $2 for $24
Sims KO/TKO/DQ +290 $10 for $29
Poirier KO/TKO/DQ +600 $10 for $60
Tanaka submission +700 $2 for $14
Westcott KO/TKO/DQ +1025 $2 for $20.50
Noke/Morono ITD +135 $10 for $13.50

I should've only bet $5 instead of $10 on: Sims KO/TKO/DQ +290, and Poirier KO/TKO/DQ +600, but I got the opening lines and rushed my bet. I'll have to bet more on Sims' ML at some point, and I'm still waiting to get a good line on Duffy's ML.

I only bet a parlay on Miocic + Lawler. Really confident on those two.

On December 31 2015 14:06 alejandicto wrote: I only bet a parlay on Miocic + Lawler. Really confident on those two.

good parlay imo

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If you have a really strong feeling Lawler will win, there's a prop at 5dimes that should interest you: Lawler points handicap +5½ -180

I feel like a fish betting on Arlovski after reading this thread..

My logic was that Stipe has lost to Struve and JdS, and has beaten Mark Hunt by TKO in round 5 and beaten Roy Nelson and Gonzaga by decision in round 3. How is that impressive? He also beat a bum looking guy in round 1 with 2 punches, so he has some power, but more than Arlovski?

Arlovski beat Brown handily by playing counter striker and following up with a rush attack when Brown was hurt, maybe a bit lucky, but he still looked good for the most part. His weaknesses to me seem to be his notorious chin and reliance on punching..

Is Stipe really that good?

Also, Arlovski has the highest takedown defense in the UFC according to wikipedia, so it's unlikely he will be put in a bad position on the ground.

^ I bet Arlovski early at +200 for 2 units, but I've been waiting for the line to get better on Stipe so I can place a bigger bet on him and get rid of my Arlovski bet. After I did my research, I had a better idea of how they match up, and I think Stipe will win a decision or a late finish.

Arlovski vs. Browne = 2 former training partners who knew each other well. Browne has always been questioned for his actual skills in MMA, and his lack of striking/defense showed in his fights with Werdum and Arlovski, which Arlovski and Jackson's MMA already knew of beforehand.

You can talk about Arlovski's good TDD, but he hasn't faced anyone with good take downs in his return to the UFC, which spans 4 fights (all of his take down stats are either old, or just not accurate in the grand scheme of things). Schaub is a boxer with good BJJ but not good wrestling; Bigfoot is a slow sack of meat who has a black belt in BJJ that we have never seen him use in the UFC; Browne is considered an MMA fighter, in that he does everything, but he's not good at any of them, he just has heavy hands and a sick good chin and cardio; Mir is a BJJ fighter with improved boxing and a good chin for the most part, unless you have that 1-punch KO power and can land on him and follow-up real fast.

The bet I like most in this fight is Over 1.5 rounds. I have o1.5 @ -145 for 1.5 units.

Thanks for the post, makes sense

Robbie Lawler (170) vs. Carlos Condit (169)
Andrei Arlovski (246.5) vs. Stipe Miocic (241.5)
Lorenz Larkin (171) vs. Albert Tumenov (171)
Diego Brandao (146) vs. Brian Ortega (145.5)
Tony Sims (156) vs. Abel Trujillo (156)
Masanori Kanehara (135) vs. Michael McDonald (136)
Alex Morono (170) vs. Kyle Noke (170.5)
Nina Ansaroff (116) vs. Justine Kish (116)
Drew Dober (155.5) vs. Scott Holtzman (155.5)
Joseph Duffy (155) vs. Dustin Poirier (155.5)
Joe Soto (135.5) vs. Michinori Tanaka (135.5)
Edgar Garcia (170) vs. Sheldon Westcott (170)

On December 30 2015 22:57 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On December 30 2015 21:45 iakim322 wrote: I still haven't seen Duffy fight. Should get on that soon before the event. Saw picture of Poirier somewhere recently though and he was looking like a borderline 170-185'er. Not sure what that will mean for this fight. I note this because I think we can make a lot more money this year by keying in on what the oddsmakers are intending when they set the lines, and simply betting at optimal times. The ROI difference would have been massive for me if I played certain fights at better times last year. Generally this means hitting favorites early and dogs late, but not always, and I do feel that it is predictable if enough wisdom is applied. Ofcourse I didn't put any of said strategy into practice for this card because I simply jumped the gun like a degenerate, but I have a clear plan for UFC FN 81 (the Dillashaw/Cruz card that is coming up) as far as who I will be slamming early, and what I will be looking to get my dogs or close favorties at. When you think about it, the fight game is so different than NFL, Soccer, etc because those lines are set very accurately and only generally move 5-10 percent max, whereas MMA or Boxing odds regularly move 50-100 percent. Some of this can be attributed to the transparency and constant new information that we get as fight fans, but it doesn't account for the extreme movement. This in it of itself shows that MMA betting can be much more profitable if done optimally IMO.

Great points. Don't disagree with a thing. So yeah you go ahead and keep the train going and I'll follow along here and there with the rest of the sheep

On January 01 2016 23:59 PuertoRican wrote: Robbie Lawler (170) vs. Carlos Condit (169) Andrei Arlovski (246.5) vs. Stipe Miocic (241.5) Lorenz Larkin (171) vs. Albert Tumenov (171) Diego Brandao (146) vs. Brian Ortega (145.5) Tony Sims (156) vs. Abel Trujillo (156) Masanori Kanehara (135) vs. Michael McDonald (136) Alex Morono (170) vs. Kyle Noke (170.5) Nina Ansaroff (116) vs. Justine Kish (116) Drew Dober (155.5) vs. Scott Holtzman (155.5) Joseph Duffy (155) vs. Dustin Poirier (155.5) Joe Soto (135.5) vs. Michinori Tanaka (135.5) Edgar Garcia (170) vs. Sheldon Westcott (170)

Morono def. looks the part of a late replacement. Flabby. Though I have no idea who he is so I'm not sure if that's somewhat normal for him.

Still haven't seen Kish fight but one look at her appearance just screams huge athletic advantage over Ansaroff.

Was leaning Sims but thought Trujillo looked better than he has before. Bit of a less weight drained look.

Condit looks like he's in fantastic shape. Then again him and Robbie (these days) almost always are. Can't imagine how this isn't going to be a great fight.

On January 02 2016 01:36 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On January 01 2016 23:59 PuertoRican wrote: Robbie Lawler (170) vs. Carlos Condit (169) Andrei Arlovski (246.5) vs. Stipe Miocic (241.5) Lorenz Larkin (171) vs. Albert Tumenov (171) Diego Brandao (146) vs. Brian Ortega (145.5) Tony Sims (156) vs. Abel Trujillo (156) Masanori Kanehara (135) vs. Michael McDonald (136) Alex Morono (170) vs. Kyle Noke (170.5) Nina Ansaroff (116) vs. Justine Kish (116) Drew Dober (155.5) vs. Scott Holtzman (155.5) Joseph Duffy (155) vs. Dustin Poirier (155.5) Joe Soto (135.5) vs. Michinori Tanaka (135.5) Edgar Garcia (170) vs. Sheldon Westcott (170) Morono def. looks the part of a late replacement. Flabby. Though I have no idea who he is so I'm not sure if that's somewhat normal for him. Still haven't seen Kish fight but one look at her appearance just screams huge athletic advantage over Ansaroff. Was leaning Sims but thought Trujillo looked better than he has before. Bit of a less weight drained look. Condit looks like he's in fantastic shape. Then again him and Robbie (these days) almost always are. Can't imagine how this isn't going to be a great fight.

Lawler always deliver great fights. i'm sure it will be a great one.

I'm pretty sure Joe Duffy is going to take apart Dustin Porier just like Connor did.

I also like the U4.5 on Lawler x Condit, any thoughts about that? It seems like they're both quite dangerous and stoppable, and more than likely one of them goes down within 4.5 rounds.

just jumped through the weigh-in but it seemed as if Robbie Lawler has some sort of injury on his right leg. Watch how he left the stage at the stairs and the walk to the backstage area. He seemed to have some sort of problem with his leg, just seemed unnatural in his movement. Carlos on the other hand looked 100% so not sure if it makes a big difference but if Robbie cannot get in and out of exchanges as fluidly then Carlos has an advantage with his range / kicks / avoiding shots and getting into exchanges. Maybe I am off here but since you guys bet real monies it might be of interest

On January 02 2016 14:46 FiSheYe wrote: just jumped through the weigh-in but it seemed as if Robbie Lawler has some sort of injury on his right leg. Watch how he left the stage at the stairs and the walk to the backstage area. He seemed to have some sort of problem with his leg, just seemed unnatural in his movement. Carlos on the other hand looked 100% so not sure if it makes a big difference but if Robbie cannot get in and out of exchanges as fluidly then Carlos has an advantage with his range / kicks / avoiding shots and getting into exchanges. Maybe I am off here but since you guys bet real monies it might be of interest

omg u scare me xD Lawler is my biggest bet.

On January 02 2016 12:34 Minsk wrote: I'm pretty sure Joe Duffy is going to take apart Dustin Porier just like Connor did. I also like the U4.5 on Lawler x Condit, any thoughts about that? It seems like they're both quite dangerous and stoppable, and more than likely one of them goes down within 4.5 rounds.

hard to say man. Condit was never KO before, only stopped by sub or injury. Robbie isn't subbing Condit, and injury won't happen to him every fights.
Lawler took Macdonald/Hendricks's best shots for 75 minutes and didn't get KO, hes unlikely to get stopped.

That being said, it does last 4 1/2 for even odds, which is pretty interesting. I personally won't bet on under or over.

On January 02 2016 14:46 FiSheYe wrote: just jumped through the weigh-in but it seemed as if Robbie Lawler has some sort of injury on his right leg. Watch how he left the stage at the stairs and the walk to the backstage area. He seemed to have some sort of problem with his leg, just seemed unnatural in his movement. Carlos on the other hand looked 100% so not sure if it makes a big difference but if Robbie cannot get in and out of exchanges as fluidly then Carlos has an advantage with his range / kicks / avoiding shots and getting into exchanges. Maybe I am off here but since you guys bet real monies it might be of interest

Just from watching that, I don't think he's injured.

Robbie naturally walks stiff like that, and using the bars to skip steps on stairs doesn't mean much to me, as I've done it plenty of times in my life. Tons of fights jump up the stairs to skip steps, and using the bars to skip steps on the way down is the other side of that.

I'm on Condit, so I wouldn't mind if Robbie is injured pre-fight.

On January 02 2016 12:34 Minsk wrote: I'm pretty sure Joe Duffy is going to take apart Dustin Porier just like Connor did. I also like the U4.5 on Lawler x Condit, any thoughts about that? It seems like they're both quite dangerous and stoppable, and more than likely one of them goes down within 4.5 rounds.

Condit is probably the least 'stoppable' fighter I can think of at welter. Not sure where that would come from. Guy has been forever durable besides the Woodley injury (who was and probably always will be a bad matchup for him) and generally fights intelligently which adds to his durability.

On January 02 2016 21:10 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On January 02 2016 12:34 Minsk wrote: I'm pretty sure Joe Duffy is going to take apart Dustin Porier just like Connor did. I also like the U4.5 on Lawler x Condit, any thoughts about that? It seems like they're both quite dangerous and stoppable, and more than likely one of them goes down within 4.5 rounds. Condit is probably the least 'stoppable' fighter I can think of at welter. Not sure where that would come from. Guy has been forever durable besides the Woodley injury (who was and probably always will be a bad matchup for him) and generally fights intelligently which adds to his durability.

I agree that calling either guy 'stoppable' is foolish - they are both proven durable warriors with unbreakable hearts, but even with that said I'm still thinking about hitting the under.

I think it's kinda up to Condit as to whether or not this goes the distance. For one thing, when he opens up, he is more hit able but also a bit more dangerous (strike for strike) than Robbie, so if Condit plants down and trades, its in those moments where major violence will ensue. Robbie typically fights at his opponents pace with bursts of pure offense sprinkled in (completely unpredictable when he decides to go HAM, like in minute 1 of his second Hendricks fight).

If at any point in the first few rounds Condit wants to just say fuck it and go to war, I think the probability of a finish on both sides is pretty high... and he may do that if he doesn't feel like he's winning the points battle after a little while (I do for-see him playing it safe at first and trying to stay at kicking range like vs Diaz, take it to deep-waters, damage the legs, out-point, etc, but I don't think it will work with Robbie in terms of using that to win on points).

If the whole fight is fought at a moderate pace, there's still always a chance of a finish just because they are both so violent and yet either chin could go at any minute.

Finally, the obvious argument for the under, which is valid, is that there will be little to no stalling on the ground or in the clinch (maybe Robbie tries to stall in the clinch at certain points, but this would probably indicate that he's uncomfortable / tired and would not end well for him via Condit's knees and elbows). More exchanges = more finishes.

i went fairly big on under and ive earned myself the nickname "king of sport bets" amongst my peers, that must certainly mean something.