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UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit

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PuertoRican   United States. Dec 24 2015 10:00. Posts 13042

Date: Saturday, January 2nd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 00:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (PPV)

Robbie Lawler (26-10) vs. Carlos Condit (30-8) (Welterweight Championship)
Stipe Miocic (13-2) vs. Andrei Arlovski (25-10) (Heavyweight)
Albert Tumenov (16-2) vs. Lorenz Larkin (16-4) (Welterweight)
Diego Brandao (20-10) vs. Brian Ortega (9-0) (Featherweight)
Abel Trujillo (12-7) vs. Tony Sims (12-3) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Michael McDonald (16-3) vs. Masanori Kanehara (25-12-5) (Bantamweight)
Kyle Noke (22-7-1) vs. Alex Morono (11-3) (Welterweight)
Justine Kish (4-0) vs. Nina Ansaroff (6-4) (Women's Strawweight)
Drew Dober (15-7) vs. Scott Holtzman (8-0) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Dustin Poirier (18-4) vs. Joseph Duffy (14-1) (Lightweight)
Joe Soto (15-4) vs. Michinori Tanaka (10-1) (Bantamweight)
Edgar Garcia (14-4) vs. Sheldon Westcott (8-3-1) (Welterweight)

Other

- The event was expected to feature a UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship bout between undefeated champion Ronda Rousey and Holly Holm, a former 18-time boxing world champion in three weight classes. However, the bout was moved to UFC 193 after a thumb injury to UFC Welterweight champion Robbie Lawler forced him out of his title bout against Carlos Condit, a former WEC Welterweight champion and former interim UFC Welterweight champion. The Lawler/Condit pairing will remain intact and has been rescheduled to headline this event.
- A welterweight bout between Sheldon Westcott and Edgar Garcia, originally scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant was moved to this event.
- A lightweight bout between Dustin Poirier and Joseph Duffy was originally booked as main event for UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs. Smolka. However, the bout was canceled on fight week due to Duffy sustaining a concussion during a sparring session. The fight was later rescheduled for this event.
- Neil Magny was briefly scheduled to face Stephen Thompson at the event. However on November 3, Magny was pulled from the pairing in favor of a match-up with Kelvin Gastelum at The Ultimate Fighter Latin America 2 Finale. Thompson was expected to remain on the card, but on December 13 it was announced that he was going to face former UFC Welterweight champion Johny Hendricks at UFC 196.
- Russell Doane was briefly scheduled to face Michinori Tanaka at the event. However, Doane was pulled from the pairing for undisclosed reasons and replaced by former Bellator Featherweight champion and one time UFC Bantamweight Championship challenger Joe Soto.
- Erik Koch was expected to face Drew Dober at this event. However on December 4, Koch was forced to pull out of the event due to injury and was replaced by Scott Holtzman.
- Kelvin Gastelum was expected to face Kyle Noke at this event. However on December 22, Gastelum was forced to pull out due to a wrist injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Alex Morono.

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 24 2015 10:09. Posts 13042




----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Condit > Lawler
• Arlovski > Miocic
• Larkin > Tumenov
• Ortega > Brandao
• Sims > Trujillo
• McDonald > Kanehara
• Noke > Morono
• Kish > Ansaroff
• Holtzman > Dober
• Duffy > Poirier
• Tanaka > Soto
• Westcott > Garcia

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Dec 24 2015 21:11. Posts 2662

Some bold picks. I like it.

Lawler > Condit - While I won't be picking against the champ here, I do think it's a great style matchup for Condit both for potential USADA reasons and because he's great vs non-wrestlers and has the particular skill-set (kicking game, length, and cardio) that could get him the 'W', but he's never looked as good as Lawler has looked since his resurgence. I'm surprised the odds are so sharp and I don't necessarily disagree with it. I think if they both bring their 'A Games' Lawler wins, but it's definitely one of the closest championship fights on paper I can think of. Weigh-ins and fight lead-up will be key for me, I want to see what they look and sound like, particularly Lawler.

Miocic > Arlovski - Hoping it gets bet down to closer to a pickem, Arlovski is a tough match-up for Miocic potentially, but its also potentially a squash match depending on what versions show up. Nothing would shock me here but an Arlovski decision would be pretty surprising.

Tumenov v Larkin - Pickem - Awesome fight, really like the over 1.5 just because both guys are gonna respect each other and while they both throw fire, Tumenov seems pretty impossible to get to clean and Larkin will have to respect Tumenov or hell get starched. Still, Larkin is fucking ridiculously athletic and skilled, I'm stoked for this one

Ortega v Brandao - Pickem - Don't understand the Ortega hype. He's super exciting and obviously has one of the best jitz games in MMA but why he's a big favorite is beyond me. I know Brandao has cardio issues that could play into Ortega's hands nicely, but he's also just as good of a fighter....

Sims > Trujillo - Should be a pure boxing fight with MMA gloves and should come down to Sims chin. If he can take a few big shots, he should be fine since he's the better technical fighter and Trujillo can't go a hard 3 at his own pace. If not, he's probably fucked.

McDonald > Kanehara - Squash match if McDonald returns in anywhere near good form.

Noke > Morono - From what I've seen of Morono, he's drawing close to dead vs the last version of Noke we saw, but I have no clue since that was only 1 fight. If anyone knows anything more about the guy, I'm open to re-thinking it.

Kish > Ansaroff - Kish should absolutely fuck up Ansaroff. I had no clue who she was but early on researching I realized she had a lot of hype and watching her fight vs Randa Markos, I instantly was on the bandwagon. Bitch is good, well-rounded, and has serious power for 115 women. She should probably find a finish via beatdown. Unless, I'm missing something, Ansaroff is mediocre and this is some intentionally 1-sided matchmaking.

Holtzman > Dober - First actual test for Holtzman, will be nice to see how he deals with adversity if there is any. His first fight was against Anthony Christodoulou and honestly that might be the worst modern-day UFC fighter of... the modern-day (excluding heavyweights ofcourse). I think he should fight CM Punk at 170. I just wanted to put that in writing so if they make that fight, I can say I called it. #narcissist

Poirier > Duffy - Not confident, but confident that the odds were wayyyy wide. This isn't the type of fight where anyone really knows who will win IMO.

Soto > Tanaka - What is Tanaka's path to victory - having improved drastically and Soto being shot I guess. I feel like people will be fading Soto here but really, he's a damn solid fighter. I think the UFC is giving him a layup for taking Dillashaw and than Birchak - pretty tough intro.

Wescott v Garcia - Dunno, don't care, neither guy has any upside

+ Show Spoiler +













 Last edit: 24/12/2015 21:24

Baalim   Mexico. Dec 26 2015 11:48. Posts 34246

this main event is going to be a war, Lawler took so much damage the last fight, good thing he doesnt spar because he is going to age a few years in one night again.

Miocic is going to shit on Arlovski, he is a legitimate young contender, Arlovski is just an old dog on a good streak

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

TianYuan    Korea (South). Dec 26 2015 12:23. Posts 6817

Wtf Holtzman's career trajectory is kinda impressive... Started competing ammy in 2010 at age 27, turned pro in 2012, made the UFC after than 3 years as a pro...

Hm.. Off-suite socks.. 

whamm!   Albania. Dec 26 2015 17:05. Posts 11625

miocic looks like bisping on roids


Stim_Abuser   United States. Dec 27 2015 01:26. Posts 7499


  On December 26 2015 10:48 Baalim wrote:
this main event is going to be a war, Lawler took so much damage the last fight, good thing he doesnt spar because he is going to age a few years in one night again.

Miocic is going to shit on Arlovski, he is a legitimate young contender, Arlovski is just an old dog on a good streak



He started sparring again when he moved to ATT. That along with his drop to WW, and maybe some ATT sauce, is probably the reason for his big resurgence.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

Minsk   United States. Dec 27 2015 13:16. Posts 1558

Can Arlovski sustainably outbox Miocic?


northsails   Bulgaria. Dec 27 2015 14:49. Posts 410

Can't really pick against Lawler after his performance against Rory. It was incredible. Condit can definitely cause some trouble, but the odds should not be this close, imo. Betting Lawler big at -115.

Miocic holds advantage over Arlovski pretty much everywhere except power. No way Arlovski outboxing him, I think Stipe is the better boxer, but he can definitely put him away if he lands his right hand. I think this fight has the potential to be really boring snoozefest with a lot of clinching and a close decision at the end, so I am unsure about betting.


Minsk   United States. Dec 27 2015 16:30. Posts 1558

If Arlovski can't sustainably outbox him, I don't think he can win. I don't think Arlovski holds the advantage in power either, only speed and footwork really.

Arlovski has changed a lot from his earlier days into a speed movement fighter with experience, thats what got him back.

 Last edit: 27/12/2015 16:33

Nazgul    Netherlands. Dec 27 2015 21:52. Posts 7080

I was thinking about betting Stipe -235. I love Arlovski but I don't think he has improved as much as people feel he has.

Thinking of betting Lawler at -110 too. Kind of scared of that one though.

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 28 2015 01:15. Posts 13042


Rekrul is a newb 

cariadon   Estonia. Dec 28 2015 10:40. Posts 4019

I'd like to see Condit win and he matches up nicely against Lawler. Effin Lawler comes off as a turd to me... plus he beat Rory, who i have taken a liking to. Arlovski vs Miocic is a coinflip. Miocic looks better but Arlovski has that wildness. Awesome card.


Baalim   Mexico. Dec 28 2015 14:07. Posts 34246


  On December 27 2015 20:52 Nazgul wrote:
I was thinking about betting Stipe -235. I love Arlovski but I don't think he has improved as much as people feel he has.

Thinking of betting Lawler at -110 too. Kind of scared of that one though.



Easiest bet in the world on Stipe, Arlovski is less hittable than before and doesnt commit as much, kind of the same thing Overeem did but on a much lesser degree, Stipe has a granite chin and went toe to toe with Cigano on striking.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

Nazgul    Netherlands. Dec 28 2015 15:40. Posts 7080

Alright I went for it, pretty big too I feel the same, $675 at -225. I swear I think Arlovski has improved and is smarter, but is also on a bit of a lucky streak.

- The win vs Schaub was close and umimpressive
- The win vs Browne was like playing Russian roulette he was +350
- Good matchup vs Mir (I bet on Arlovski)

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

Stim_Abuser   United States. Dec 28 2015 20:08. Posts 7499

While I think Lawler is the better fighter due to defensive wrestling, I think this is a good match up for Condit. Lawler rarely uses his wrestling offensively, and has had cardio issues in a 5 round fight often taking rounds off to reserve energy.

I think Condit will get hit a lot, but his pace, cardio, chin and volume can definitely win him this fight. Robbie basically doesn't check kicks nor use them to get takedowns so Condit can probably kick him at will out of range. I think it's gonna be a close, competitive war that will come down to who wins the close rounds.

But who knows Robbie might surprise me and use takedowns to win rounds.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

Minsk   United States. Dec 28 2015 20:14. Posts 1558

Condit > Lawler
Miocic > Arlovski

think those will be my bets, I feel very strongly about the Miocic fight, and closer about the Condit fight.


Mortensen8   Chad. Dec 28 2015 22:17. Posts 1841

Rear naked woke 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 29 2015 01:57. Posts 13042


  On December 28 2015 21:17 Mortensen8 wrote:



Conor McGregor worked with Ido Portal for his movement.
Alistair Overeem worked with Wim Hoff for his breathing/cardio.
Carlos Condit is using MovNat in his training.

This could be a sign!

----------




Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 30/12/2015 04:51

iakim322   United States. Dec 30 2015 22:45. Posts 1335

Really looking forward to this card for the obvious main event but really also Larkin/Tumenov. Potential for a bit of a too careful fight because like sober said, I'm sure they'll respect each other a good bit to start but the ceilings of both are so high such that it's going to be interesting regardless. Always have been high on Larkin's potential and Tumenov straight up looked like he had the technical skills with his hands to hang with even upper level pro boxers...except looks like he has that same level with his kicks as well. I think I'm going to go with Larkin at odds hoping his athleticism is a bit blinding for Tumenov but still fully expecting the good chance that Larkin slips up somewhere and gets slept in a very quick sequence. Either way, really going to enjoy the fight I think.

Going to go with Condit. Aboard the movement train. Though Condit's been using heavy lateral movement training since ever anyways. Expecting Condit to come out with a similar'ish gameplan to the one he used vs Nick Diaz except I think he actually will trade a bit more after a little bit because I think he can and will inflict more damage on Lawler than he did on Nick during the early rounds. But can't ever be too strong against Lawler coz well...yeah...everyone's already said why. Dude's kind of an animal.

For those who play DraftKings, should take advantage of Kyle Noke being priced still as he was going to be vs Gastelum. Almost a 3:1 favorite vs the replacement nobody who I know nothing about yet he's priced like he's still a 3:1 dog instead.

Stipe >>> Arlovski. By a lot. Not that I think Stipe will finish him a majority of time but I just don't see Arlovski's paths to victory besides the usual puncher's chance into a quick flurry thing.

Going to be on Kish pretty good. Really going to go behind any new chick with previous striking credentials. It's clearly where women's MMA is headed since a lot of the 'old school' chicks really were sub-par athletes in general.

I still haven't seen Duffy fight. Should get on that soon before the event. Saw picture of Poirier somewhere recently though and he was looking like a borderline 170-185'er. Not sure what that will mean for this fight.




 
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