UFC FN 77: Belfort vs. Henderson 3

Date: Saturday, November 7th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 00:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Vitor Belfort (24-11) vs. Dan Henderson (31-13) (Middleweight)
Glover Teixeira (23-4) vs. Patrick Cummins (8-2) (Light Heavyweight)
Thomas Almeida (19-0) vs. Anthony Birchak (12-2) (Bantamweight)
Alex Oliveira (12-3-1) vs. Piotr Hallmann (15-4) (Lightweight)
Gilbert Burns (10-0) vs. Rashid Magomedov (18-1) (Lightweight)
Fabio Maldonado (22-8) vs. Corey Anderson (6-1) (Light Heavyweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Gleison Tibau (33-11) vs. Abel Trujillo (12-6) (Lightweight)
Yan Cabral (12-1) vs. Johnny Case (21-4) (Lightweight)
Clay Guida (32-15) vs. Thiago Tavares (19-6) (Featherweight)
Kevin Souza (15-3) vs. Chas Skelly (14-1) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Viscardi Andrade (17-6) vs. Gasan Umalatov (15-4-1) (Welterweight)
Pedro Munhoz (12-1) vs. Jimmie Rivera (17-1) (Bantamweight)
Bruno Rodrigues (4-0) vs. Matheus Nicolau Pereira (10-1-1) (Flyweight)

Other

- The event is expected to be headlined by a middleweight rubber match between longtime multi-divisional contenders Vitor Belfort and Dan Henderson. Henderson defeated Belfort in their first encounter in 2006 at Pride 32 via unanimous decision. Belfort defeated Henderson in their second encounter in 2013 at UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson via first round knockout.
- Tom Lawlor was expected to face Fabio Maldonado at this event. However, Lawlor was forced to pull out due to injury and was replaced by The Ultimate Fighter 19 light heavyweight winner Corey Anderson.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Henderson > Belfort
• Teixeira > Cummins
• Almeida > Birchak
• Oliveira vs. Hallmann (dunno yet, tough to call, and Oliveira is going back to 155 for this fight)
• Magomedov > Burns
• Anderson > Maldonado (18 days short-notice fight for Anderson)
• Trujillo > Tibau
• Case > Cabral
• Guida > Tavares
• Souza vs. Skelly (dunno yet, tough fight)
• Andrade > Umalatov
• Munhoz > Rivera
• Rodrigues vs. Pereira (dunno)


Even in the fights where I picked a winner, there's a lot of close fights on this card that can go either way. I'm glad I'm not placing any bets.

Munhoz might get disrespected by the bookies, so if he for some reason opens at -150 or better, I'd go big on him. He's better than Rivera in every aspect of MMA, plus he's bigger, plus he's a finisher, and he's fighting in his home country.

Don't understand why Pat Cummins is such a big dog. I am going big on him here.

It's because Pat Cummins is trash, and Texeira is very good.

I don't see what is so good about Teixeira. He is overrated, he is old and had big problems in his last two fights against wrestlers. Cummins nearing +400 is crazy for me.

With all due respect PuertoRican but how and based on what do you think that a 45 year old Dan Henderson with a 2-5 record in past 7 fights is a favorite over an 38 year old Vitor Belfort? Agreed Belfort lost to Henderson 9 years ago. But since then Vitor went 10-3 and also beat Henderson in the process. I know Vitor is off TRT, but so is Hendo and Vitor only lost to Anderson Silva, Jon Jones and Chris Weidman,3 of arguably top 5 Fighters in the world at that time. Vitor also gave Weidman trouble in the beginning, its not like Weidman cruised to a win, the ending looked awful for Vitor but in the beginning he was quite dangerous.
Henderson has a 1 punch knock out trick and he is way way past his prime. I agree that Hendo has a punchers chance but thats about it, betting on Hendo UNLESS there are sick odds like +500 seems quite bad. I mean Vitor has tendencies to fold and look bad when he loses and Hendo has the tendency to have big upset potential, but come on betting on Hendo is not based on facts or math but can only be explained by sick odds or a fanboy background

Belfort > Henderson (slammed the under 1.5 at -120 when it opened, Henderson will get KO'd within 2 minutes most likely, he has a punchers chance and thats it, no way he can grapple-fuck Vitor, guy can barely bend over)
Texiera > Cummins
Almeida > Birchek (Fight is probably closer than odds indicate but its in Brazil so I'm not touching it)
Oliveira > Hallman - Close fight tho, odds opened wayyyy too wide and they reset them
Magomedov vs Burns - Pickem (Just depends where fight takes place and how much, if at all, Burns has improved his overall game, Magomedov is clearly the better all-around fighter but not sure it will matter)
Anderson >>>>>> Maldanado - Shouldn't even be close, this is the lock of the card
Trujillo > Tibau - Interested to see odds on this one
Case > Cabral
Tavares > Guida
Skelly > Souza - Very close could go either way but I lean grappler
Andrade > Umalatov - Wouldn't bet it either way, not a good read on the fight, just my lean
Rivera > Munhoz - Same as last pick

Bets:

+ Show Spoiler +

On November 02 2015 19:22 FiSheYe wrote: With all due respect PuertoRican but how and based on what do you think that a 45 year old Ben Henderson with a 2-5 record in past 7 fights is a favorite over an 38 year old Vitor Belfort? Agreed Belfort lost to Henderson 9 years ago. But since then Vitor went 10-3 and also beat Henderson in the process. I know Vitor is off TRT, but so is Hendo and Vitor only lost to Anderson Silva, Jon Jones and Chris Weidman,3 of arguably top 5 Fighters in the world at that time. Vitor also gave Weidman trouble in the beginning, its not like Weidman cruised to a win, the ending looked awful for Vitor but in the beginning he was quite dangerous. Henderson has a 1 punch knock out trick and he is way way past his prime. I agree that Hendo has a punchers chance but thats about it, betting on Hendo UNLESS there are sick odds like +500 seems quite bad. I mean Vitor has tendencies to fold and look bad when he loses and Hendo has the tendency to have big upset potential, but come on betting on Hendo is not based on facts or math but can only be explained by sick odds or a fanboy background

I have to agree, it is debatable whether or not betting Vitor at this point is worth it but to pick Hendo outright is crazy to me.

Anyone really think the Vitor that fought Weidman wouldn't absolutely murder the guy that Mousasi put out with a not hard right cross?

I bet on Hendo vs Boetsch, while others on here were picking Boetsch laughing at the idea that Hendo could do anything, so its not as tho I have a hard on for hating on Dan or loving Vitor. This matchup just seems so straightforward to me. Hendo can't grapple, Vitor won't grapple, Vitor is a better striker with faster hands, a better chin, and doesn't move like a 45 year old cuz he's not 45. Be pretty surprised if Hendo won but of course hes got the H-bomb so I guess you never know (pretty sure I do tho)

On November 02 2015 13:34 northsails wrote: I don't see what is so good about Teixeira. He is overrated, he is old and had big problems in his last two fights against wrestlers. Cummins nearing +400 is crazy for me.

If it wasn't in Brazil I'd agree but I think the odds are pretty correct here considering Cummins will have to do something pretty dominant to win.

On November 02 2015 19:22 FiSheYe wrote: With all due respect PuertoRican but how and based on what do you think that a 45 year old Ben Henderson with a 2-5 record in past 7 fights is a favorite over an 38 year old Vitor Belfort? Agreed Belfort lost to Henderson 9 years ago. But since then Vitor went 10-3 and also beat Henderson in the process. I know Vitor is off TRT, but so is Hendo and Vitor only lost to Anderson Silva, Jon Jones and Chris Weidman,3 of arguably top 5 Fighters in the world at that time. Vitor also gave Weidman trouble in the beginning, its not like Weidman cruised to a win, the ending looked awful for Vitor but in the beginning he was quite dangerous. Henderson has a 1 punch knock out trick and he is way way past his prime. I agree that Hendo has a punchers chance but thats about it, betting on Hendo UNLESS there are sick odds like +500 seems quite bad. I mean Vitor has tendencies to fold and look bad when he loses and Hendo has the tendency to have big upset potential, but come on betting on Hendo is not based on facts or math but can only be explained by sick odds or a fanboy background

I'd take Ben Henderson over Vitor Belfort if they were scheduled to fight.

Regarding Dan Henderson, his last win was fast, but I like what I saw from him in terms of movement. Granted, his opponent basically walked right into his big bomb.

Vitor is off TRT now, and he needs it, where as Henderson doesn't need it nearly as much. What made me pick Henderson outright is cuz he has a good chin, better cardio, and never loses his aggression and power in a fight. Vitor looked terrible on fight-day in his last fight and gassed out after his big flurry against Weidman, and was easily mounted and finished.

I think this will be the last we see of Vitor, unless he takes a full year off afterward.

Also, as I always state in my first picks, they're my first impression, not my final pick before placing a bet.

Henderson and a good chin - wtf, he is getting rocked with every punch that lands on him now. His chin WAS legendary, but that was years ago. He is an old man now and what kind of a cardio advantage does he have on Vitor? He is gassed after 2 minutes in the first round. He is looking like a zombie strolling around the cage, it is very sad to watch.

Tim Boetch threw the last fight away being an absolute retard running head first into his right hand in the beginning of the fight. I can't see him doing that to Vitor and I can't imagine him surviving a Vitor flurry. Belfort is going to catch him and put him away early, I am almost certain of that.

Main fight reminds me of that movie with Deniro and Sylvester Stallone called Grudge Match. Where they're both old now, and finally decided to fight. The movie was a comedy.

This is it boys, 8 UFC events in 7 weeks.



PS waiting on soberstone's bets, dude is a beast.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ufc-s-ne...rogram-isn-t-adding-up-181947896.html

Edit Never mind I thought I was the idiot who called Dan, Ben. That wasn't me, so I take back my apology.

PS - If you think Vitor won't be cheating in Sao Paolo when he was still cheating vs Weidman, you got another thing coming.

I'd bet my life at -9999 that Vitor is still cheating. Just not as badly so he looks like a weird guy who has certain parts of his body on roids and others not.

I actually really like Cummins too but you can only be so heavy on a guy that's as one dimensional as him. Something a little interesting...Pat came on the Anik/Florian podcast for an interview...said he's trained with Glover several times before. The usual confidence thing (the good, seemingly genuine kind...not overly so or outrageous) but he conceded that the one thing that stands out about Glover is that he just feels naturally really strong in the clinch etc. Seems like that's a really good attribute to have for takedown defense. And I'm not yet convinced Cummins wouldn't get tooled by a Kimbo Slice level street fighter if takedowns were a no go.

Vitor > Henderson. Besides agreeing with most of Fisheye and Soberstone's points... and this is maybe being a bit naively stubborn or paranoid...but it's Vitor and it's in Brazil. I'm not sure I could be fully convinced he's not on some sneaky shit even if I was staring at negative test results straight in the face. I personally would really love it though if PR was right and this is the last we see of him.

Agree that Anderson > Maldonado should be a lock. Going to pick him up in all DK lineups. Only slightly concerning thing is that it is kind of a short notice fight but the guy said he wanted to be really active and is entering his physical prime. Shouldn't run out of gas and even if he does, Maldonado sucks.

On November 03 2015 02:41 iakim322 wrote: I actually really like Cummins too but you can only be so heavy on a guy that's as one dimensional as him. Something a little interesting...Pat came on the Anik/Florian podcast for an interview...said he's trained with Glover several times before. The usual confidence thing (the good, seemingly genuine kind...not overly so or outrageous) but he conceded that the one thing that stands out about Glover is that he just feels naturally really strong in the clinch etc. Seems like that's a really good attribute to have for takedown defense. And I'm not yet convinced Cummins wouldn't get tooled by a Kimbo Slice level street fighter if takedowns were a no go.

I agree. If this was in the US I'd play Cummins at current odds but if he has his best performance and its a closely contested bout where hes getting the worst of it on the feet but has a decent amount of time in 'control', I think Glover gets the decision 6/7 times in Sao Paolo, so really, how's Cummins win outside of Glover not coming in shape (def a possibility like vs Davis and he is only getting older) and getting completely top-controlled for 10+ minutes.

The way I see it is Glover KO's him early or late or wins a close decision. Not rly going out on a limb but if Pat hangs around long enough to lose a decision, I don't expect it would be 1-sided, just easy for Brazilian judges to score.

Edit: Thinking more about the fight and the dynamic, I really think Cummins may be more live than originally thought about 5 minutes ago, lol. If he is super light and quick on his feet while Glover is the opposite and if he can avoid the pocket (showing a better sense of range and patience than he has in the past) he may be able to frustrate Glover and take him down and gas him. He's an intelligent guy so I could so it happening. That said I'm still gonna need much better odds to play him.

On November 02 2015 21:13 soberstone wrote: Henderson will get KO'd within 2 minutes most likely

how times have changed

Btw. to add to the DAN Henderson vs Vitor argument, look at the last fight
Vitor vs Weidman loss


compared to the 2 last losses of Hendo vs Mousasi


and Cormier, since getting KOed by Vitor


I wouldn't find a good reason why someone should bet on Hendo, the only thing he has going for him is that Vitor is not much of a long range fighter with his punches, but since Vitor is awesome with kicks these days this might not hold true anymore either.
I would love to see Vitor being great without steroids but I guess he abused them his whole life and he is depending on them, so he will either be banned for abuse or fizzle out of the rankings soonish. Also I am not convinced that Hendo stopped juicing, the guy has used TRT as well which is very indicative that he might have abuse prior as well.
Let both juice to the tits and offer a great old school fight, then retire them both for good.

double post, plz remove