Journey to a Million with Options Trading - Page 3

On September 24 2015 22:10 cariadon wrote: I'll consider giving this a second thought again after someone explains thoroughly why it is they are able to make money trading the way they do. All i read is bla bla bla. Hooked on the forex scammy trading via technical analysis? good for you. There is no such thing as free money. God have mercy on the soul who jumps in and tries to prove these disciples wrong. Thankfully time will do it for us. Please report back every quarter and let us know how you are doing. Reference to similar threads - gold is a whopping 1153$ at the time of posting. bitcoins are 208$.

lol i understand your view, much respect as i know for a fact that you are finance and that is something I'd like to further strengthen as time goes by. ive got nothing but respect for someone who knows more than i do. i have not figured out a system to refute centuries of data. i might lose everything next week if the market crashes haha. i am though, looking at this in a different lens. the amount of times i will be right or wrong vs the amount of money i end up with at the end of the year will be the judge. i am simply trying to get the people who get it to take a look at it as there are a lot of extremely dedicated and highly intelligent people here than I. I'll post nothing but results next time if i do well still, no numbers no EV no math.

Sorry, 209€ not dollars. Silly eu.

I hope you are not trading currencies whamm! It is the devil. Black hole. Can't beat it,

difference between poker and trading seems to be you can selectively choose your opponents in poker whereas you play against the prevailing market price in trading. you should assume the market is mostly efficient most of the time and generally better than you at pricing assets nearly always.

On September 25 2015 14:27 Romm3l wrote: difference between poker and trading seems to be you can selectively choose your opponents in poker whereas you play against the prevailing market price in trading. you should assume the market is mostly efficient most of the time and generally better than you at pricing assets nearly always.

What is this based on?

On September 25 2015 09:35 cariadon wrote: Sorry, 209€ not dollars. Silly eu. I hope you are not trading currencies whamm! It is the devil. Black hole. Can't beat it,

haha never. i know my limitations. BILAT told me before about forex and hes already warned me not to do it. I trust the guys advice obviously and especially seeing it is a 24/7 thing. I cant be looking at trends all the time, I cant help it.

[x] lack creativity lack skills lack 'drive'
[x] embrace chaos
[x] fold kings preflop
[x] no numbers no EV no math

let's get that easy options money boys

On September 25 2015 21:54 cariadon wrote: Show nested quote + On September 25 2015 14:27 Romm3l wrote: difference between poker and trading seems to be you can selectively choose your opponents in poker whereas you play against the prevailing market price in trading. you should assume the market is mostly efficient most of the time and generally better than you at pricing assets nearly always. What is this based on?

seems to me to be a safe and sensible assumption (esp for rando small retail traders) given how many active traders exist and how many of those have a long consistent track record of actually making money through the cycle. you disagree?

I disagree. The active traders with consistent track records of making money are not omnipotent. It is not like they have always existed and are gatekeepers to profitability or something. Taking positions worth 10k$ or 100k$ doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. I believe it is possible to make money in the financial markets.

obv not omnipotent, but generally better than whamm and that other dood, why would you think its otherwise? also whats the martket share % of small traders whamm is trying to target with his sick reads?

hs poker players are not omnipotent also, but are way way better than some rando jumping into the game. the idea that you can just jump into trading and print money is ridiculous

The idea of having this dialogue is that for someone from LP it may prove to be a valid career option or a logical progression from poker.

Whamm! is all over the place. He just went off. Pressing submit post without any filters. What he has got right though is that it will take years to see results. Coupled with having a bigger sample of trades to minimize randomness, noise, luck.

I'd say that retail traders make up a marginal and negligible % of market share. Hedge funds manage tens of billions of dollars with <50 employees. A poker player trading with 100k is surely a drop in the ocean in the bigger stocks. Making money is hard but not because of the reasons stated: 1. others are better 2. they have a bigger bankroll 3. market is efficient to a degree it is unbeatable.

Appaloosa Management, L.P.
Pershing Square Capital management, L.P.

my point is

On September 26 2015 21:33 cariadon wrote: I'd say that retail traders make up a marginal and negligible % of market share. Hedge funds manage tens of billions of dollars with <50 employees.

makes market pretty efficient most of the time

o_o, it is actually easier to make money on a smaller account - you can enter/exit trades easier with negligible impact to bid/ask.

Also, unlike large corporations with billions dollars under management (those who look after your 401K/Superannuation), you have more freedom in the products you invest in, the strategies you use etc. Whereas the large corpoations are almost always forced to bullish on the stock market, bonds & real estate 100% of the time.

And sure markets are efficient to an extent, but it's not perfect. It can be frustrating at first to understand the domain, but to assume that there is no 'opportunity' and to think that letting people manage your money is the best way to go... that is doing yourself a great disservice.

what I'm saying is that a lot of you are a whole lot smarter than I am. Just go read options or whatever. Keep an open mind IF you want to go into trading, if you keep remaining cynical then I'm sorry but nobody's going anywhere. Listen to HHSE and pick his thoughts as he verbalizes it better haha. Good luck guys and I hope you really do well. I am stock trading's diggerflopboat

Dogmeat, read the books I recommended as they also apply to options. They are quite popular books, and everyone who's made money in stocks has read it already. Don't listen to my crazy rants though, Im just trying to throw a ton of my random musings until I hit someone's thoughts

Managed to construct the graph for those who are more visual:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...xVvbZ6r6H4pej_eBdb3Q/edit?usp=sharing


Just saying... there are ways to trade as a retail investor where probability is on your side. YTD results.

Stocks - 3K loss
Options - 24K gain
Futures - 29K gain
Net - 50K

Over a 2.5 month period. Most people will tell you that their IRA is down OR flat YTD since start of 2016.

Shit a word graph. Guess it must be legit then

hhse,

please explain the AAPL trades. What's going on.

There are two Apple trades there.

26th Jan was a binary event play (earnings announcement). Sold put options at strike $94 @ $1.13 in weekly options (i.e I'm betting that post earnings announcement, the stock will stay above $92.87. I bough contract back the following day for $0.71 cent. Pocketed $0.42 cents per contract. i.e 0.42 * 100 (one contract = 100 shares) * 5 = $210 less commissions.


The second one was a purely because I felt that Apple was trading close to its lower range and I believed that IV percentile was still decent, so I sold a put at strike $90 for $2.18 at monthly expiration date closest to 45 days (i.e I'm betting that the stock will stay above $87.82) . Bought it back for $1.34 per contract making $0.84 cents per contract i.e 0.84 * 100 * 5 = $420 less commissions.


Essentially, the above two trades make money in a few ways: Volatility collapse OR Theta Decay (the less time available on a contract, the cheaper it becomes). See graph below:

Ok, makes sense. I didn't get the quantity from your docs. I understand now. When you sell put options you are required to put up the money to cover right? 5x100x94=47k What happens when the price goes down a lot and you take a loss? If you don't have enough money on your account you get a haircut.

If you have a bunch of these cooking and trading futures aswell it implies a pretty big bankroll. Are you using leverage or are you staked/prop ? What do you consider the minimum bankroll to trade the way you did AAPL, selling options? I get it you can just buy call options or buy put options but that is a different thing.

Basically on your 45k in the second trade locked up for ~20 days you make 420$. In poker terms you play 100nl with 45k and make 4.2 buyins in 20 days. Why is this attractive for poker players?

What are some of the more interesting trades during this period excluding futures?