UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia - Page 5

anybody not going all-in on Ronda has no idea what they are doing

On August 01 2015 04:50 Baalim wrote: anybody not going all-in on Ronda has no idea what they are doing

Thanks for this excellent piece of advice. MMA bettors all around the world would be lost without you.

My bets:

- Ronda + Bigfoot (Palelei is really bad and terrible cardio).
- Ronda + Shields (Palhares has only one trick and Shields has never been submitted)

On August 01 2015 10:34 PuertoRican wrote:

LOl.... bitch they are using is made up and still doesn't even look like Rousey. Terrible.

#willstillprobablyfaponce

Ronda is definitely as mainstream as it gets for MMA for where I live. People I know actually know Ronda is fighting a nobody tonight and are going to a bar to watch. Before, it was GSP and a little bit of Anderson. Now it's Ronda and a tiny bit of Conor

On August 01 2015 04:50 Baalim wrote: anybody not going all-in on Ronda has no idea what they are doing

Going for the -1500 or -1800 line?

I have $1000 on Struve now around -170 lines. I've been wrong before but feeling really good about this one. Small bet on Shogun -210 with $105. I just don't see a 39yo Nogueira beat him, but obviously not very confident in that read given the size of the bet. Although I know some have widely differing opinions still considering a small bet on Bigfoot at +180. I just have such a hard time believing someone as good as him has dropped off so far so fast. Clearly I can see the issue with his chin so that's why I'm not pulling the trigger just yet.

I like a few line movements and I am pumping in some bets on:

Struve at -145, Decided initially to not bet this fight, but I like this odds. If Struve has anything left he should dispatch of Big Nog with ease.

Neil Magny at +170, small bet here. I don't know if he can stay away from Maia's ground game.

I am betting Cummins at -160 as well.

I am on the fence about Bigfoot. He looked very bad at the weigh in imo.

yea i wouldn't put any money on bigfoot if i were you naz. i'm not talking about his chin only, but he looks so incredibly slow these days.

-edit- lol PR only now I saw the wsof weigh in video. "...] one of the toughest, most controversial fighters in mma history [..]" about palhares lmao

On August 01 2015 19:49 Raidern wrote: yea i wouldn't put any money on bigfoot if i were you naz. i'm not talking about his chin only, but he looks so incredibly slow these days. -edit- lol PR only now I saw the wsof weigh in video. "[...] one of the toughest, most controversial fighters in mma history [..]" about palhares lmao

The announcer also said Shields "now has a 15-fight win streak." He twisted the words to make it seem as if he's currently on a 15-fight win streak, when everyone knows he isn't.

I'll watch the last 2 fights on that card, but skip the rest since it'll be on during the same time as UFC.

Added

Magney via KO/KO/DQ @ $20.00 +800 to win $160.00
Gadelha via Sub @$40.00 +500 to win $200.00
Canetti @ $25.00 +400 to win $100.00
Miranda via Sub @$10.00 +1,350 to win $135.00
Miranda rd 3 @$10.00 +1,275 to win $127.50
Miranda via Decision @ $30.00 +445 to win $133.50
Alves via KO @ $40.00 + +400 to win $200.00

On August 01 2015 20:47 soberstone wrote: Added Magney via KO/KO/DQ @ $20.00 +800 to win $160.00 Gadelha via Sub @$40.00 +500 $200.00

Damn son, you love you some Gadelha!

The 2 props I like the best for this fight are Gadelha decision -135 and Aguilar +3.5 +150. I'd actually recommend the points at plus odds on Aguilar to anyone who has a lot riding on Gadelha, especially since you have the potential of winning all of your Gadelha bets and the Aguilar points bet.

The Aguilar point spread will most likely get bet down, as it should.

On August 01 2015 21:21 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On August 01 2015 20:47 soberstone wrote: Added Magney via KO/KO/DQ @ $20.00 +800 to win $160.00 Gadelha via Sub @$40.00 +500 $200.00 Damn son, you love you some Gadelha! The 2 props I like the best for this fight are Gadelha decision -135 and Aguilar +3.5 +150. I'd actually recommend the points at plus odds on Aguilar to anyone who has a lot riding on Gadelha, especially since you have the potential of winning all of your Gadelha bets and the Aguilar points bet. The Aguilar point spread will most likely get bet down, as it should.

Yah I do haha... but that's a hedge.

I got Gadelha early at -220.... than I put a big bet on Gadelha decision at -130 and an over-hedge on Aguilar decision at +600. Gadhela sub is a pure hedge as those are the only 3 outcomes I can see and I am not getting too juice raped because of when I placed each bet.

The only thing I feel very sure of is that Aguilar isn't finishing Gadelha. Gadelha wins the fight an overwhelming majority of the time, Gadelha wins via decision happens more than half the time, and Gadelha does find a finish, it'll be a sub >>> half the time, so I placed my bets with those premises in mind.

Only way I lose on my bets is an Aguilar finish which isn't happening, or I lose small on a Gadhela KO which could happen but is unlikely.

Win big on a Gadelha decision.

Shoot it. First bet of the night $25 on the 4:1 dog for $100.

Let's go.

Miranda, baby!

Miranda and Cavalcante are my two biggest plays on DraftKings tonight.

Edit: Aside from Ronda, of course.

Big loss there. Miranda props all missed and Hester lost. Terrible performance - had all the ways in the world to win that fight but I should have never trusted his IQ. -$198 on that one.

On August 01 2015 23:47 PuertoRican wrote: Miranda, baby! Miranda and Cavalcante are my two biggest plays on DraftKings tonight. Edit: Aside from Ronda, of course.

Thats a great play, your in good shape

On August 01 2015 23:49 soberstone wrote: Big loss there. Miranda props all missed and Hester lost. Terrible performance - had all the ways in the world to win that fight but I should have never trusted his IQ. -$198 on that one.

Hester has been overrated in his UFC career, and I've managed to take advantage of it. It's mostly due to him being black and athletic, but he sucks as an MMA fighter. His striking generally consists of wide hooks, and he gasses in his fights that go past 1.5 rounds.

Hester looked like shit yesterday on the scales, even though he made weight on his second attempt an hour or so later. He usually comes in with abs and a flat chest, while it was the opposite yesterday.

Also, he looked like a fat piece of shit (compared to his usual size) just 1 month ago:

He might be injured, cuz he never tries to wrestle in his fights, at least not like he did today.

Edit: Miranda has striking credentials that far exceed anything Hester has ever done, which is probably why he felt he needed to wrestle.

Bam. GJ Yuri. Had me worried in the first.