UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia

Date: Saturday, August 1st
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (PPV)

Ronda Rousey (11-0) vs. Bethe Correia (9-0) (Women's Bantamweight Championship)
Mauricio Rua (22-10) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-6) (Light Heavyweight)
Glaico Franca (12-3) vs. Fernando Bruno (15-2) (TUF Brazil 4 Lightweight Final)
Dileno Lopes (18-1) vs. Reginaldo Vieira (12-3) (TUF Brazil 4 Bantamweight Final)
Stefan Struve (25-7) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-9-1) (Heavyweight)
Antonio Silva (18-7-1) vs. Soa Palelei (22-4) (Heavyweight)
Claudia Gadelha (12-1) vs. Jessica Aguilar (19-4) (Women's Strawweight Championship title eliminator)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Demian Maia (20-6) vs. Neil Magny (15-3) (Welterweight)
Rafael Cavalcante (12-5) vs. Patrick Cummins (7-2) (Light Heavyweight)
Warlley Alves (8-0) vs. Nordine Taleb (11-2) (Welterweight)
Iuri Alcantara (31-6) vs. Leandro Issa (13-4) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Vitor Miranda (10-4) vs. Clint Hester (11-4) (Middleweight)
Hugo Viana (8-2) vs. Guido Cannetti (6-2) (Bantamweight)

Other

- The lightweight and bantamweight finals of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4 are also expected to take place at this event. The finale was initially planned to take place on June 27, 2015 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. However on May 15, the event was moved to the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Florida. It was expected to be the first time a Ultimate Fighter Brazil Finale would take place outside of Brazil. However, as the event approached, several international fighters experienced potential travel restrictions due to technical issues within the Bureau of Consular Affairs division of the U.S. State Department which produces visas. This issue could prevent several participants from being able to compete. Subsequently, the divisional finals of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4 were shifted to this event.
- The event is also expected to feature a UFC Women's Strawweight Championship title eliminator bout between Claudia Gadelha and former WSOF Women's Strawweight champion Jessica Aguilar.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Rousey > Correia
• Rua > Nogueira
• Franca vs. Bruno (dunno)
• Lopes vs. Vieira (dunno)
• Struve > Nogueira
• Palelei > Silva
• Aguilar > Gadelha
• Magny > Maia
• Cavalcante > Cummins
• Alves > Taleb
• Alcantara > Issa
• Miranda > Hester
• Viana > Cannetti

Tate vs Rousey 3 should be interesting possibly as Tate improves

On July 26 2015 22:56 PuertoRican wrote: First impression of the match-ups: • Aguilar > Gadelha

:O can you explain this

On July 26 2015 23:50 alejandicto wrote: Show nested quote + On July 26 2015 22:56 PuertoRican wrote: First impression of the match-ups: • Aguilar > Gadelha :O can you explain this

First, tell me why you think Gadelha will win, then I will tell you why I think Aguilar will win.

oh no, its struve, i always get nervous when he fights ;(

i hope aguilar vs gadelha and magny vs maia will be good

^ yea i wish struve wasn't fighting anymore.
i'd like to say the same about nogueira but tbh i dont care, in the last few years i lost the respect i had for him

On July 27 2015 00:45 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 26 2015 23:50 alejandicto wrote:   On July 26 2015 22:56 PuertoRican wrote: First impression of the match-ups: • Aguilar > Gadelha :O can you explain this First, tell me why you think Gadelha will win, then I will tell you why I think Aguilar will win.

Well I dont know too much about strawweight division, I only know that Aguilar was the WSOF champion and Gadelha is really good that she can be champion, in almost every forums people said that Gadelha is going to destroy Aguilar so I wasnt interest, but I am interested on your thinking because I like betting on underdogs.

Have a $475 bet on Struve at -190, very confident this is a bet. Nogueira just isn't very good anymore.

Still thinking about bets on Bigfoot +155 and Cummins -185. Anyone have thoughts about this? I'm aware Bigfoot has not looked great and susceptible to the KO, but the man has wins over Overeem, Browne, Fedor, Arlovski has he really gotten to the point where +155 is justified vs Soa Palelei (who is 38yo)?

This card is full of fighters who should be retired.

I have Gadelha at -205, very happy for this odds. Too bad they let me bet just 150 before changing them up.

Personally I wouldn't touch the Struve - Nogueira fight. While Big Nog is absolutely terrible at the moment, Struve has fought 2 times in the last 3 years and both fights are losses. He almost retired due to heart condition. Not very confident in betting him at this odds.

I might bet Bigfoot as well. Soa Palelei is just very bad.

On July 27 2015 11:50 Nazgul wrote: Have a $475 bet on Struve at -190, very confident this is a bet. Nogueira just isn't very good anymore. Still thinking about bets on Bigfoot +155 and Cummins -185. Anyone have thoughts about this? I'm aware Bigfoot has not looked great and susceptible to the KO, but the man has wins over Overeem, Browne, Fedor, Arlovski has he really gotten to the point where +155 is justified vs Soa Palelei (who is 38yo)?

Bigfoot post TRT seems to be as hurt as any fighter ever.... Frank Mir and Arlovski both KO'd him by tapping his chin and he looks even slower than before.... not sure Palelei will have improved his striking enough to even get inside on him though, which is pathetic. We'll see on that one, kinda flip flopping, I'm personally wishing I had passed.... (I have Palelei in a couple small parlays)... mainly because I think if I were Bigfoot, fighting in Brazil, I'd probably get back on something and there's no question that a 2012 Bigfoot would mutilate Palelei

I personally think Cummins is going to steamroll Cavalcante, I'm with you. OSP is much better than Cavalante at this point in their careers and he still needed to pull off a pretty nice KO to avoid getting decisioned by Cummins grappling-chops. Same thing could happen again but I doubt it.

On July 27 2015 11:50 Nazgul wrote: Have a $475 bet on Struve at -190, very confident this is a bet. Nogueira just isn't very good anymore. Still thinking about bets on Bigfoot +155 and Cummins -185. Anyone have thoughts about this? I'm aware Bigfoot has not looked great and susceptible to the KO, but the man has wins over Overeem, Browne, Fedor, Arlovski has he really gotten to the point where +155 is justified vs Soa Palelei (who is 38yo)?

I already mentioned the TRT issue to you on Skype.

Regarding the age issue, you already know it doesn't come into play that much in the heavyweight division. Most of the top 15 UFC heavyweights are above 32 years old. What other weight class can say the same? In fact, the youngest fighter in the top 15 is also the lowest ranked fighter in the top 15.


Champion: Fabricio Werdum (37 years old - ever evolving fighter who won the title at 37 years old)
1. Cain Velasquez (32 years old)
2. Junior Dos Santos (31 years old)
3. Stipe Miocic (32 years old)
4. Andrei Arlovski (36 years old - evolving fighter who fights more strategically so he takes less damage these days)
5. Travis Browne (33 years old)
6. Josh Barnett (37 years old)
7. Ben Rothwell (33 years old)
8. Mark Hunt (41 years old - you already know about his resurgence)
9. Alistair Overeem (35 years old)
10. Frank Mir (36 years old - his next fight will tell us a lot more, as he had 2 favorable match-ups in a row)
11. Roy Nelson (39 years old)
12. Antonio Silva (35 years old)
13. Matt Mitrione (37 years old)
14. Alexey Oliynyk (38 years old - skilled grappler who is still somewhat unknown in the UFC)
15. Stefan Struve (27 years old)

Maker lines just opened.

Magney has been all over the place but I think I’m gonna jump on him at +130 for a couple units and double it if it moves to +150.

Current odds I like:

Magney – +130 (I actually favor him in this fight, particular due to his length, activity, cardio, and Maia seemingly on a slow but steady decline)

Cummins – -157 (May hedge with a Cavalcante rd 1 stoppage like what happened vs OSP but I consider OSP > Cavalcante at this point in their respective careers and there is no way Cavalcante isn’t gassed by the 2nd with the pace Cummins sets)

Alves – -225 (His opponent isn’t nearly as dangerous as Jouban was…. Alves cardio is a concern but he should be able to do whatever he wants and set the pace)

Lil Nog – +170 (I favor Shogun but they are both so declined and bad at this point that I’d handicap Lil Nog at about +120)

Already placed a big Parlay on Gadhelda when she opened (think the line is where it should be now) and Rousey sub at -180.

Looking to prop, if the lines are juicy enough:
Palelei rd 1 stoppage
Magney rd 3 stoppage
Cummins rd 3 stoppage or decision, depending what I feel is more accurate
Cavalcante rd 1 stoppage as a hedge
Big Nog decision

STRAIGHT WAGER RISKING TO WIN
219572618
MU NEIL MAGNY (NEIL MAGNY vrs DEMIAN MAIA) +130 $60.00 $78.00
219572619
MU PATRICK CUMMINS (RAFAEL CAVALCANTE vrs PATRICK CUMMINS) -160 $96.00 $60.00
219572620
MU WARLLEY ALVES (NORDINE TALEB vrs WARLLEY ALVES) -210 $126.00 $60.00

On July 27 2015 13:28 northsails wrote: This card is full of fighters who should be retired. I have Gadelha at -205, very happy for this odds. Too bad they let me bet just 150 before changing them up. Personally I wouldn't touch the Struve - Nogueira fight. While Big Nog is absolutely terrible at the moment, Struve has fought 2 times in the last 3 years and both fights are losses. He almost retired due to heart condition. Not very confident in betting him at this odds. I might bet Bigfoot as well. Soa Palelei is just very bad.

Gadelha was a steal when she opened, I got that too. The current odds are more accurate but there's probably still value on her. JAG could win a decision if she fights the perfect fight and Gadelha has a bad night but that's about it IMO.

On July 27 2015 23:37 soberstone wrote: Maker lines just opened. Magny has been all over the place but I think I’m gonna jump on him at +130 for a couple units and double it if it moves to +150. Current odds I like: Magny – +130 (I actually favor him in this fight, particular due to his length, activity, cardio, and Maia seemingly on a slow but steady decline) Alves – -225 (His opponent isn’t nearly as dangerous as Jouban was…. Alves cardio is a concern but he should be able to do whatever he wants and set the pace) Already placed a big Parlay on Gadhelda when she opened (think the line is where it should be now) and Rousey sub at -180.

Regarding Magny/Maia, I slightly favor Magny, too, but saying Maia is "seemingly on a slow but steady decline" is unfair. Maia has cardio issues, but they aren't consistent cardio issues, so it's hard to cap his fights sometimes cuz he doesn't always gas out like he's expected to. Also, since January 2012, Maia is 5-3 in the UFC, losing to Chris Weidman by decision (3 rounds), Jake Shields by split-decision (5 rounds), and Rory MacDonald by decision (3 rounds). Maia is currently on a 2-fight winning streak, his last fight being a 5-round decision win.

Regarding Alves, Taleb isn't as dangerous on the feet as Jouban, but Taleb and Jouban are nothing alike in MMA, so it would be foolish to compare the two.

On July 27 2015 23:47 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 27 2015 13:28 northsails wrote: This card is full of fighters who should be retired. I have Gadelha at -205, very happy for this odds. Too bad they let me bet just 150 before changing them up. Personally I wouldn't touch the Struve - Nogueira fight. While Big Nog is absolutely terrible at the moment, Struve has fought 2 times in the last 3 years and both fights are losses. He almost retired due to heart condition. Not very confident in betting him at this odds. I might bet Bigfoot as well. Soa Palelei is just very bad. Gadelha was a steal when she opened, I got that too. The current odds are more accurate but there's probably still value on her. JAG could win a decision if she fights the perfect fight and Gadelha has a bad night but that's about it IMO.

You're either overrating Claudia, or underrating Jessica with this statement.

Considering Claudia won't finish Jessica, you're pretty high on the Brazilian.

bigfoots chin is done and he is the slowest human being on earth so i'd favor anyone over 205 pounds against him. all they need to do is touch his chin quicker than he reacts

Gadelha all the way to -515....