UFC FN 66: Edgar vs. Faber

Date: Saturday, May 16th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 12:00 LP.net / 4am PST / 7:45pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 13:00 LP.net / 5am PST / 8am EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 15:00 LP.net / 7am PST / 10am EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Frankie Edgar (18-4-1) vs. Urijah Faber (32-7) (Featherweight)
Gegard Mousasi (36-5-2) vs. Costas Philippou (13-4) (Middleweight)
Mark Munoz (13-6) vs. Luke Barnatt (8-2) (Middleweight)
Hyun Gyu Lim (13-4-1) vs. Neil Magny (14-3) (Welterweight)
Phillipe Nover (10-5-1) vs. Yui Chul Nam (18-4-1) (Featherweight)
Mark Eddiva (6-1) vs. Levan Makashvili (6-1) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Tae Hyun Bang (17-8) vs. Jon Tuck (8-2) (Lightweight)
Zhang Lipeng (9-8-1) vs. Kajan Johnson (19-11-1) (Lightweight)
Li Jingliang (9-3) vs. Dhiego Lima (10-3) (Welterweight)
Ning Guangyou (4-2-1) vs. Royston Wee (4-0) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Roldan Sangcha-An (4-1) vs. Jon Delos Reyes (7-4) (Flyweight)
Nolan Ticman (4-2) vs. Yao Zhikui (1-2) (Flyweight)

Other

- Luke Barnatt was expected to face Clint Hester at UFC Fight Night 63. However, Hester pulled out of the fight in early March due to a broken foot. Subsequently, Barnatt was pulled from the card entirely in favor of a matchup with Mark Muñoz at this event.
- Roger Zapata was expected to face Li Jingliang at the event. However on April 18, it was announced that Zapata was pulled from the fight due to undisclosed reasons. Jingliang will now face Dhiego Lima.
- Alex White was expected to face Mark Eddiva at the event. However on April 26, it was announced that White was forced out of the fight due to an undisclosed injury. Eddiva will now face promotional newcomer Levan Makashvili.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Edgar > Faber
• Mousasi > Philippou
• Barnatt > Munoz
• Lim vs. Magny (dunno, tough fight.)
• Nam > Nover
• Makashvili > Eddiva
• Bang > Tuck
• Lipeng > Johnson
• Jingliang > Lima
• Guangyou vs. Wee (dunno)
• An vs. Reyes (dunno)
• Ticman vs. Zhikui (dunno)

TY for thread as always.

Dunno a lot of the Asian fighters so will study some tape this week if Fight Pass's search engine doesn't suck too bad and will edit this post with more picks.

Initial thoughts:

Edgar > Faber - Super excited for this fight obviously, too bad the rest of the card sucks. Line seems about right with 350 being in the middle of the two, Faber is very good but seems to be hitting more of a decline, Edgar is better at everything that should count in this matchup. If Faber is gonna win, it's gonna have to be, IMO, by landing a big right early early on when Edgar tends to get hit. Beyond that, Edgar should be able to box him up, stuff takedowns, avoid dangerous scrambles and outpoint him, maybe even land something big. I could see myself putting a flyer on Faber but probably won't. Kinda like the over at -235. Both guys damn near impossible to finish.

Mousasi > Philippou - As I stated in the last thread, I'm laying a good sized bet on Philippou at +430. I see Gegard as a heavy favorite, just not nearly that heavy. If you put money on him at -550 you're insane. I understand that it's hard to see a path to victory for Costas but to that I say, he hits really hard and Mousasi is hittable. I hope this is one of those events where they randomly put in the smaller cage because that would greatly favor Costas. On a side note, it's absolutely absurd that they ever use a smaller cage, makes it less of a legitimate sport.

Barnett > Munoz - Wouldn't bet on it in the Philippines, even though the odds aren't too wide and Munoz is clearly a joke at this point.

Magney > Lim - Very close fight, pick-em odds seem right, if either guy veers into +120 territory I'd look to bet them. Lim is enormous, for my money he's the biggest WW in the UFC, so I'll also be keeping an eye on the weigh-ins.

Will update when I do some scoutz0rs.

I haven't really researched any fights yet, but Barnatt seems like a good pick. He's 10 years younger, Munoz is clearly declining recenlty, and Barnat has a massive height and reach advantage.
Barnat also has a good TD, i don't see this going to the ground. I think Munoz's main chance is to KO Barnat, but Barnat has never been knocked out before.
But i haven't researched it yet, but as general rule you don't go wrong betting on the guy 10 years younger with massive reach advantage against someone who is clearly on a big decline.

BTW, throwback boxing style poster for Manilla is dope.

Wait, fuck Bookmaker. You mean to tell me you can get Edgar by decision at -135 on other sites right now? Fuck me, that better be there on Bookmaker come fight night. I'll take that all day.

pretty hyped for edgar fight. Hes prob my top 3 favorite fighter to watch. And ever since TUF seems like a beast of a dude. Like faber too though.

Edgar is the man.

If you don't like Frankie Edgar you have no soul

I think Faber just has nothing for Edgar. Think the line should be more in line with Ronda Rousey fights. Don't see a way for Faber to win.

Just noticed that all 12 fights are available to choose from on DraftKings. I think this is the first time they've done this for a card that isn't purely on Fight Pass. Too bad the card isn't great aside from the last 4-5 fights.

I think Edgar will win, but Faber always shines in non-title fights. Edgar has improved lately, while Faber seems like the same fighter (good, but flawed). Faber's best chance is to crack Edgar with a big punch and snag a choke, otherwise he'll lose a decision.

I really hate betting on main event and co-main. I think in both fights, odds are actually spot on, and too spread to find any sort of edge. I'm possibly gonna pass for once..

I think Faber can beat Edgar, and that Costas Phillipou can beat Gerard Mousasi, and I think that Neil Magny is a better fighter than Korean Zombie, but he might run into trouble with Zombies style, because Magny's style is so rhythm based and Zombie will force the pace.

Probably some value on the Western fighters too, as I watched a vice documentary about Chinese and Eastern Cultures having a small dick complex towards westerners, some of them will probably want to lose to a westerner.

On May 13 2015 03:18 Minsk wrote: I think Faber can beat Edgar, and that Costas Phillipou can beat Gerard Mousasi, and I think that Neil Magny is a better fighter than Korean Zombie, but he might run into trouble with Zombies style, because Magny's style is so rhythm based and Zombie will force the pace. Probably some value on the Western fighters too, as I watched a vice documentary about Chinese and Eastern Cultures having a small dick complex towards westerners, some of them will probably want to lose to a westerner.

This entire post...

Whats wrong with you?

Ah, thats not Korean Zombie. Neil Magny is gonna wreck him.

Ummmm.... yea the Korean Zombie (Chan Sung Jung) is a Featherweight and is out for mandated military duty for South Korea.....

I don't know if you are trolling or what but if so, 0/10.... if not, I concur with KG GIF

I'm not really trolling. I really would favor the western fighters as a genaralisation. Bookies can't make the lines like that, they couldn't explain it to their bosses, but humans do have subconscious tendencies like that which can produce edges.

On May 13 2015 06:25 Minsk wrote: I'm not really trolling. I really would favor the western fighters as a genaralisation. Bookies can't make the lines like that, they couldn't explain it to their bosses, but humans do have subconscious tendencies like that which can produce edges.

Koreans shouldnt be lumped in together with the rest of Asian MMA... They are way closer to western MMA imo, especially in how sick much weight they cut. Lim is fucking enormous.

Duno enough about either of them to want to predict anything, just think Korea is very different from China or even Japan.

EDIT: Not that I imagine the matchups are always the fairest, but I remember seeing a stat during a Road FC event last year of Koreans vs Japanese fighters in Road FC's history, and it was like 60/40 or 66/33 winrate in favour of Korea (massive reversal from the days of Pride). But it goes to my point of on average Korean fighters are more similar to western ones - good wrestling, awesomely conditioned and cut a ton of weight so they are fairly huge for their weightclasses.

On May 13 2015 07:57 TianYuan wrote: Koreans shouldnt be lumped in together with the rest of Asian MMA... They are way closer to western MMA imo,

Sounds right, Koreans and Japanese are closer to western MMA than other parts of Asia.

Well this devolved quickly

Just threw a moderate bet on the over of Edgar v Faber @ -230.

The odds are too wide for me to bet the winner at this point, but I feel fine about it going the distance.... I don't think either of these guys snags a finish. It would certainly surprise me.

Aldo +110
McGregor -140

@ Mandalay Bay

Either Mandalay Bay is trying to manipulate the action or a lot of money came in on McGregor from a single source.

McGregor's gonna finish him (obviously I'm not sure of such a bold claim, but I feel pretty confident about it). Just hope the odds shift back by the time I'm in Vegas for that fight. The Brazilians travel extremely well so I assume it will shift back, plus most all other Bookmaker's still have McGregor as the slight dog.

The last two people I can think of that have come into the UFC and obliterated their competition the way McGregor has were Anderson Silva and Jon Jones, and maybe even through Chris Weidman in there. I realize there is a competition gap + Aldo is a much better P4P fighter than either Silva or Jones had to deal with, but I don't think it's as wide as most people would argue. Particularly the Max Holloway fight looks ridiculously impressive in hindsight.

If anyone who feels differently can provide an analogous counter-example to someone coming into the UFC and running through a division only to be exposed as an over-hyped commodity, I'm all ears.

And I also realize this is not an argument that stands alone as to why I think McGregor will win, I have plenty of other reasons that are more fight specific, but from a purely meta-visceral standpoint, this is one obvious point that should be made.

Edit: I did think of one maybe valid example in Jon Fitch, but I wouldn't say he's steamrolled guys.

Doubt Edit: I guess Daniel Cormier is a legit example as well. Still, few and far between and TBH, Jon Jones is a much more dominate champion than Aldo in much more of his prime, and he didn't exactly steamrole DC.

Triple Edit: Chad Mendes as well.... guess I'm doing a good job of refuting my initial point.

I've always felt McGregor will beat Aldo it's just a gut feeling that I get. I feel like the way Aldo fights as tough as he is, standing toe to toe with Mendes, I don't think he will last 5 rounds if he fights like this vs McGregor, he will constantly get hit since McGregor is taller and has longer reach, constantly pressures and would be harder to hit because of his stance.


note: Yes I am also an Aldo fan but I don't see him beating McGregor if he fought him the way he fought Mendes.

It's more than just reach with Mcgregor. He fights more perpendicular to his opponents, while Aldo seems to square up. This magnifies the reach advantage and he should be able to outbox Aldo pretty handily from distance. The question is if he can deal with the grappling, legkicks, and power on the inside. Really interested to see what Jack Slack and other strong striking analysts have to say about it.

Heads up for tomorrow's Bellator event:

Brandon Halsey vs. Kendall Grove was supposed to be for the middleweight title, but Halsey weighed in at 188.1, which is 3.1 pounds over the limit.

According to Ariel Helwani: "Bellator tells me that the deal is this: if Halsey wins, the belt is vacated. If Grove wins, he's the new champ. 5-round fight."

You can currently get Grove at +500 on 5dimes and Bookmaker. Mike Richman was also overweight by 3+ pounds, but his fight against Eduardo Dantas isn't for a title. Richman said he dried up in the sauna and couldn't cut anymore weight.

Aldo throws less and less legkicks with his fights, I hope this has been a strategical deliberate choice rather than simply how he is evolving because if he comes out kicking those legs Connor is fucked.

Connors ridiculously wide stance has always suffered against legkicks and actually just like Anderson Silva he raises his hand and taunts and exposes other parts trying to avoid more kicks.

So if I had a way to know that would be the way Aldo is going to fight Id say he is a -300 fav

On May 15 2015 01:33 Baalim wrote: Aldo throws less and less legkicks with his fights, I hope this has been a strategical deliberate choice rather than simply how he is evolving because if he comes out kicking those legs Connor is fucked. Connors ridiculously wide stance has always suffered against legkicks and actually just like Anderson Silva he raises his hand and taunts and exposes other parts trying to avoid more kicks. So if I had a way to know that would be the way Aldo is going to fight Id say he is a -300 fav

When has his wide stance suffered against legkicks? He's gotten hit with a few and it's reasonable to think Aldo's will hurt him and lead to an advantage but please name a fight where legkicks altered his style at all to the point where you could use the word 'suffer'.

On May 15 2015 01:39 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 15 2015 01:33 Baalim wrote: Aldo throws less and less legkicks with his fights, I hope this has been a strategical deliberate choice rather than simply how he is evolving because if he comes out kicking those legs Connor is fucked. Connors ridiculously wide stance has always suffered against legkicks and actually just like Anderson Silva he raises his hand and taunts and exposes other parts trying to avoid more kicks. So if I had a way to know that would be the way Aldo is going to fight Id say he is a -300 fav When has his wide stance suffered against legkicks? He's gotten hit with a few and it's reasonable to think Aldo's will hurt him and lead to an advantage but please name a fight where legkicks altered his style at all to the point where you could use the word 'suffer'.

I took it as Baal saying the stance suffers against legkicks, not necessarily Conor having struggled vs them. Think Shogun vs Machida, anyone vs the Diaz bros, etc. He really hasn't fought a guy who could hurt him that way. Max Holloway was injured and CM blanketed him the whole fight and the other guys were all mediocre or got blasted inside 10 minutes.

On May 15 2015 01:30 PuertoRican wrote: Heads up for tomorrow's Bellator event: Brandon Halsey vs. Kendall Grove was supposed to be for the middleweight title, but Halsey weighed in at 188.1, which is 3.1 pounds over the limit. According to Ariel Helwani: "Bellator tells me that the deal is this: if Halsey wins, the belt is vacated. If Grove wins, he's the new champ. 5-round fight." You can currently get Grove at +500 on 5dimes and Bookmaker. Mike Richman was also overweight by 3+ pounds, but his fight against Eduardo Dantas isn't for a title. Richman said he dried up in the sauna and couldn't cut anymore weight.

Dantas vs. Richman is cancelled: "The bantamweight showdown between former champion Eduardo Dantas and Mike Richman, scheduled for Friday’s Bellator event in Temecula, Calif., was canceled after Richman came in overweight for the contest, sources told MMAFighting.com.

Richman weighed in at 139.2 pounds for the bantamweight clash on Thursday’s official weigh-ins, and sources said that Dantas agreed to fight with the condition that Richman wouldn’t weight more than 147 pounds on fight night, but Richman declined."

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Halsey vs. Grove is still good to go.

Wow that Bellator card really went to shit. Early black eye for Coker.

I was ready to see Richman vs Duantes more than any other fight and Hasley missing weight will probably just roll through Grove in boring fashion and have a vacant title.

On May 14 2015 23:46 soberstone wrote: Particularly the Max Holloway fight looks ridiculously impressive in hindsight.

Max is a fighter who always shows up with a lot of improvement every fights.
Max fought conor at 21. He has improved A LOT since then. I'm not sure the 21 yo Max would have made Swanson look like a fool, would probably have been closer. Back then, Holloway almost lost to Leonard Garcia, a very average fighter.
I'm pretty sure today's Holloway isn't a walk in the park for anyone.

That being said, Conor himself has improved a lot a since then imo.

I think Conor vs Aldo is likely to be interesting and fun to watch. Aldo isn't a champion that tends to finish off opponements in 2 rounds, and he is so durable i find it very unlikely Conor finish him off very fast, i think its likely gonna be a war.
The over 2 round 1/2 sounds interesting to me.

On May 15 2015 02:36 soberstone wrote: Wow that Bellator card really went to shit. Early black eye for Coker. I was ready to see Richman vs Duantes more than any other fight and Hasley missing weight will probably just roll through Grove in boring fashion and have a vacant title.

I wouldn't be surprised if Grove won. Halsey can't go 3 full rounds without slowing down, and this is a 5-round fight. If Halsey can't get a 1st round finish, the odds start to tip in Grove's favor. Also, Grove doesn't mind fighting on the ground, as it's the place he rather fight anyway.

There's been a ton of upsets in Bellator over the years, even with their champions.

UPDATE: Dantas vs. Richman is back on for Bellator 137 after both camps agreed on new terms.

Conor has looked impressive in his wins but lets not forget the fact that all of this wins are against tailor made opponents for his style. Put Aldo against this opposition and he will likely destroy them all in brutal fashion.

I feel UFC has been protecting Conor from tough match ups for a reason and they are cashing in big on that fight. It is a win - win situation as even if Aldo beats him handily He is going to become a huge star ( just like Silva - Sonnen).

As for the fight Mcregor definately has the advantage in the stand up, but that is it. He is never faced a fighter ever remotely good as Aldo. I believe even if Aldo is having trouble landing leg kicks and is getting hammered on the feet, He can easily take Conor down and grapple with him, where He will have a huge edge.

I hope Aldo line gets better on most betting outlets. I am betting BIG on him anyway, but feel the Mcregor hype is so big, the line will move in his favour even more.

On May 15 2015 01:33 Baalim wrote: Aldo throws less and less legkicks with his fights, I hope this has been a strategical deliberate choice rather than simply how he is evolving because if he comes out kicking those legs Connor is fucked. Connors ridiculously wide stance has always suffered against legkicks and actually just like Anderson Silva he raises his hand and taunts and exposes other parts trying to avoid more kicks. So if I had a way to know that would be the way Aldo is going to fight Id say he is a -300 fav

Well his last couple fights have been against exceptional wrestlers in which his kicks make him vulnerable to takedowns, And KZ he broke his foot off KZs knee in the first round.

But in the llamas fight who isn't an elite wrestler, he kicked the shit out of his legs.

That said Conor has shown he can check kicks. He's checked a couple in the UFC and even has a Weidmanesque check that resulted in a leg break.

While Conors got the reach, size and boxing. Aldos got the speed and versatility. Very interested to see Aldos game plan.

weigh ins happening live right now bros!

Frankie Edgar (146) vs. Urijah Faber (146)
Gegard Mousasi (185) vs. Costas Philippou (186)
Luke Barnatt (185) vs. Mark Munoz (186)
Hyun Gyu Lim (171) vs. Neil Magny (171)
Yui Chul Nam (146) vs. Phillipe Nover (145)
Mark Eddiva (145) vs. Levan Makashvili (145)
Tae Hyun Bang (156) vs. Jon Tuck (156)
Kajan Johnson (155) vs. Zhang Lipeng (155)
Li Jingliang (171) vs. Dhiego Lima (170)
Ning Guangyou (135) vs. Royston Wee (137)*
Jon Delos Reyes (125) vs. Roldan Sangcha-an (126)
Nolan Ticman (126) vs. Yao Zhuikui (125)

* – Missed weight; fined 20 percent of purse.

Costas Phillippou does not pass the Cosmo eye test. That boy on the juice for sure

Love Mark Munoz at +145. Don't really have an opinion about any other line.

On May 14 2015 21:46 PuertoRican wrote: Aldo +110 McGregor -140 @ Mandalay Bay

Time to make a trip to Vegas and go all-in on Aldo

On May 15 2015 21:47 JonnyCosMo wrote: Costas Phillippou does not pass the Cosmo eye test. That boy on the juice for sure

Better hope he gets clean soon. New NSAC penalties starting at the end of this year.



First offense is 2 years and 40-50% of your purse... god damn.

On May 15 2015 22:08 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On May 15 2015 21:47 JonnyCosMo wrote: Costas Phillippou does not pass the Cosmo eye test. That boy on the juice for sure Better hope he gets clean soon. New NSAC penalties starting at the end of this year. First offense is 2 years and 40-50% of your purse... god damn.

Ouch.

The inclusion of cannabis is so crazy... We're gonna look back on this in 20 years (or less) and see how dumb it was to ban cannabis from MMA.

Pretty sure the majority of people already look at it that way.

If you're bored, there's a decent Bellator card today.

Prelims starts in 15 minutes: http://www.spike.com/shows/bellator-mma/live

Main card starts at 6pm PST/9pm PST on Spike TV.

Catchweight (188.1 lbs) Brandon Halsey vs. Kendall Grove
Catchweight (139.2 lbs) Eduardo Dantas vs. Mike Richman
Welterweight Fernando Gonzalez vs. Curtis Millender
Bantamweight Darrion Caldwell vs. Rafael Silva

Preliminary Card (Spike.com)

Middleweight Benji Radach vs. Ben Reiter
Light Heavyweight Virgil Zwicker vs. Razak Al-Hassan
Bantamweight Joe Taimanglo vs. Antonio Duarte
Featherweight Jordan Parsons vs. Julio Cesar Neves
Welterweight Jesse Juarez vs. Ricky Rainey

Postliminary Card (Spike.com - after the main card is over)

Bantamweight John Yoo vs. Albert Morales
Bantamweight Shawn Bunch vs. Rolando Perez
Lightweight Steve Kozola vs. Ian Butler
Women's Featherweight Arlene Blencowe vs. Adrienna Jenkins

Barnett down to -138, just put a bet on him. Phillipines or not, he should win. I'm shocked the odds shifted this way after the face-off. Barnett looked 2-weight classes larger and Barnett's cardio is a strong suit. He's a young hungry fighter who is arguably still undefeated.

Also throwing a bet on Richman over Duantes in the Bellator event at +185.

Virgil "RezDog" Zwicker with the nice uppercut KO over Razak Al-Hassan.

On May 16 2015 00:09 PuertoRican wrote: Virgil "RezDog" Zwicker with the nice uppercut KO over Razak Al-Hassan.

Yah that was fun

I had Neves up 2-0 prior to the arm triangle. He has crappy cardio for being 30-0, now 30-1.

Yah and he wasn't exactly fighting a world-beater. 30-0 Brazillians with a combined strength of schedule of like 15 wins and 100 loses should not be taken very seriously.

Neves is definitely a fun prospect though with A level striking offense.

Literally as I was typing how terrible Duarte's striking defense was, he got ktfo, lol

Taimanglo vs. Duarte was another fun fight. Nice tomahawk KO punch from Taimanglo.

One thing the UFC could really pickup from Bellator and is an absolute no-brainer is their superior micing of the violence. In other words, the volume on connected shots, slams, etc is way more crisp - and it's not just because of the small crowd. It makes it a much more visceral and exciting experience where you can really feel the violence, which we all love.

Nice wrestling and control from Sisqo in round 1.

On May 16 2015 00:01 soberstone wrote: Barnett down to -138, just put a bet on him. Phillipines or not, he should win. I'm shocked the odds shifted this way after the face-off. Barnett looked 2-weight classes larger and Barnett's cardio is a strong suit. He's a young hungry fighter who is arguably still undefeated.

Agreed. Most importantly, he's 10 years younger with a 10 inch reach advantage, you need a lot of skills to make up for that lol

Gee. I can see why they wanted to put Michael "Venom" Page against Millander. Such a jobber fight that would have been.

Yay Gonzalez~~~

Millender the Floyd Mayweather of Bellator, minus the undefeated record.

I think they'll give that to Dantas. Close fight.

Round 1: Dantas (Take downs, control from the top. Richman landed 1 good shot on the feet, but he was mostly inactive when standing.)

Round 2: Richman (Dantas couldn't get the take downs.)

Round 3: Dantas (Dantas got the take down and was on top for a bit. Richman kept it close on the feet instead of dominating on the feet.)

Dantas 2-1 imo

On May 16 2015 02:36 PuertoRican wrote: Round 1: Dantas (Take downs, control from the top. Richman landed 1 good shot on the feet, but he was mostly inactive when standing.) Round 2: Richman (Dantas couldn't get the take downs.) Round 3: Dantas (Dantas got the take down and was on top for a bit. Richman kept it close on the feet instead of dominating on the feet.) Dantas 2-1 imo

Agreed, and they got it right. Wouldn't have been mad at a Richman decision tho either, considering I had a small bet on him at +185 and he out-landed and out-damage Dantas in the 3rd. Takedown's sure do hold a lot of weight.

The up-kick looked like it hurt Halsey at the end of round 1.

Mark Hunt needed Mike Beltran in his fight against Stipe Miocic.

Easy win for Brandon Halsey.

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Bellator dark matches: http://www.spike.com/shows/bellator-mma/live

Got lucky betting NBA so betting a lot of shit tomorrow which is probably not a good sign, but anyway, my final bets pre-card

Philippou > Mousasi SU $60.00 +401
Philippou > Mousasi SU $40.00 +430
Edgar v Faber o 4.5 PROP $46.00 -230
Barnatt > Munoz SU $41.40 -138
Lim > Magney SU $20.00 +100
Nover > Nam SU $20.00 +150
Edgar by Decision PROP $60.00 -150
Tuck + Lim + Barnatt PL $20.00 +484
Tuck + Lim + Barnatt + Nover PL $10.00 +1,361

And another $40 on Philippou at +500 @ 9:11 AM PST

Reason I'm betting Lim is because he looked amazing at weigh-ins and the more I think about it, the more its clear that Lim is far better competition than Magney has fought since losing to scrubs.

Alex Garcia is good but got hurt, acl tear or something in the first round of their and the decision was still highly questionable.

Lim has power, surprising cardio, enormity, a great chin, will be going forward most of the time, and the hometown all-around factor (crowds influence judges and it'll prolly be loud) - that's enough for me to take him at even money against a guy who is well-rounded, technical, lanky, but generally passive and doesn't have much power.

Since I don't want to wake up at 4am to watch a bunch of scrubs fight, I'm skipping all of the prelims. However, I will watch the entire main card, which starts at 7am.

p.s. I'm not betting this card, but if I was, one of my favorite bets would be Urijah Faber +9.5 points at -130 @ 5dimes. That being said, I don't use 5dimes, and Bookmaker doesn't offer the +9.5 points.

Prelims on FS1 has been on fire.. Asian fighters putting on a mutha fuarken show

I'm awake. Watching Roldan vs. Reyes. It was the replay.

Main card is starting now.

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Mark Eddiva with the massive fence grab like he's Aldo in Brazil.

MM song choice and pacman logo ripoff puts me on tilt T_T

still don't know what anyone sees in faber. i think he is going to get absolutely dominated in every single area of this fight, will not win 1 round, and will possibly even get finished.

On May 16 2015 15:52 Daut wrote: still don't know what anyone sees in faber. i think he is going to get absolutely dominated in every single area of this fight, will not win 1 round, and will possibly even get finished.

Most of us are in agreement that Edgar wins. I don't see Faber getting finished, though.

Luke Barnatt sucks

Despite picking wrong and losing coin, nice to see Munoz go out like that.

great retirement fight for Munoz.

An Englishman, who is the tallest guy in the division, against an aging wrestler fighting in his adopted hometown. WAR Munoz!

Anyway, hopefully the main event is good, cuz I don't think Mousasi vs. Philippou will be good at all.

Well done Munoz awesome performance, I shouldn't bet against my countryman. Probably the first time I felt pretty good about losing a bet.

On May 16 2015 15:59 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 16 2015 15:52 Daut wrote: still don't know what anyone sees in faber. i think he is going to get absolutely dominated in every single area of this fight, will not win 1 round, and will possibly even get finished. Most of us are in agreement that Edgar wins. I don't see Faber getting finished, though.

obviously everyone thinks the -400 fighter is likely going to win. but most people who have posted seem to think faber has a chance. i think this is basically jones vs chael level of mismatch. well maybe not that much, but werdum vs big nog level.

On May 16 2015 16:23 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On May 16 2015 15:59 PuertoRican wrote:   On May 16 2015 15:52 Daut wrote: still don't know what anyone sees in faber. i think he is going to get absolutely dominated in every single area of this fight, will not win 1 round, and will possibly even get finished. Most of us are in agreement that Edgar wins. I don't see Faber getting finished, though. obviously everyone thinks the -400 fighter is likely going to win. but most people who have posted seem to think faber has a chance. i think this is basically jones vs chael level of mismatch. well maybe not that much, but werdum vs big nog level.

The only person in this thread who said Faber can beat Edgar is Minsk. The rest of us expect Edgar to win, and a lot of people think it will go over 4.5 rounds. The only chance Faber has at winning is via rocking Edgar and getting a fast submission, but that's easier said than done.

Yah I'm an idiot. Mousasi apparently shouldn't have been -600. He should of been -10000.

I didn't realize he was an offensive wrestling dynamo. That because he's not. Philippou's TDD is THAT bad. Yikes.

Mousasi continues his streak in the UFC of dominating weak competition: Costas Philippou (2015), Dan Henderson (2015), Mark Munoz (2014), and Ilir Latifi (2013).

I think what Daut is trying to say is that he believes Faber is drawing dead, whereas we think he's going to lose but wouldn't go that far.

Because Sonnen was drawing dead against Jones.

And women are drawing dead against Rousey (as Daut referenced earlier in the thread)

Round 1: Edgar (he landed more, but neither guy landed anything significant.)
Round 2: Edgar (he landed more with a wider margin, whereas round 1 was close in strikes.)
Round 3: Edgar (clear round for Edgar due to wrestling.)

Faber is doing decently with counters and leg kicks, but is getting outlanded by such a wide margin. Not much he can do here. Higher volume from him would just make it worse.

Round 1: Edgar (he landed more, but neither guy landed anything significant.)
Round 2: Edgar (he landed more with a wider margin, whereas round 1 was close in strikes.)
Round 3: Edgar (clear round for Edgar due to wrestling.)
Round 4: Edgar
Round 5: Edgar

Edgar 5-0, but I can see the judges giving Faber round 1. Not as exciting as I hoped it would be. Edgar's lack of power and Faber's movement stopped any real damage from happening.

On May 16 2015 17:10 Daut wrote: Faber is doing decently with counters and leg kicks, but is getting outlanded by such a wide margin. Not much he can do here. Higher volume from him would just make it worse.

Correct. He needed to land something big early. It was his only chance. Not a very exciting fight simply because they neutralized each other so much.

When he fights a superior opponent, UF is very good at settling in on a strategy that minimizes how much he loses by. He is dangerous from the clinch and has power on the inside which prevents anyone without huge power from the outside from hurting or finishing him, but gets slowly battered by technical straight punches for the entire fight. Carbon copy of the first Barao fight.

Changed my mind. I think CM is a favorite over FE.

On May 16 2015 17:42 Daut wrote: Changed my mind. I think CM is a favorite over FE.

Will book this if it happens

Fuckers had technical difficulties with the post-fight press conference.

On May 16 2015 19:36 JonnyCosMo wrote: Show nested quote + On May 16 2015 17:42 Daut wrote: Changed my mind. I think CM is a favorite over FE. Will book this if it happens

only way it happens is if Aldo pulls out of the fight due to injury, they don't reschedule the fight for later, and Dana offers CM to Edgar over Mendes. Which I think is basically 0% given how much money the UFC has pumped into promoting this fight with the worldwide tour. Otherwise, we will learn a lot about CM in this upcoming fight and will have a much better idea of how he will do against FE/Mendes. But just saying if they were scheduled to fight next, and we were not provided more information on each guy, I think CM would be >50%.

My basic thinking is that CM has an enormous reach advantage, is a very special striker with huge power and great accuracy, FE doesn't have the powerful leg kicks to possibly exploit the long stance, and FE is very hittable. Almost think CM would finish him. Of course the grappling is also a wild card, but I think CM would have a large edge on the feet due to power and reach.

Btw, could we say Nover vs Nam is biggest robbery ever? I had personally bet on Nover, and i was like 100% sure i had lost, when i saw the decision i almost felt guilty.

Havent seen Conors TDD tested by a high level wrestler yet, but if I had to bet money on it, I'd bet that possibly the 1st or 2nd best wrestler at FW would be able to take down the Irish boxer pretty consistently.