UFC FN 66: Edgar vs. Faber - Page 2

Well this devolved quickly

Just threw a moderate bet on the over of Edgar v Faber @ -230.

The odds are too wide for me to bet the winner at this point, but I feel fine about it going the distance.... I don't think either of these guys snags a finish. It would certainly surprise me.

Aldo +110
McGregor -140

@ Mandalay Bay

Either Mandalay Bay is trying to manipulate the action or a lot of money came in on McGregor from a single source.

McGregor's gonna finish him (obviously I'm not sure of such a bold claim, but I feel pretty confident about it). Just hope the odds shift back by the time I'm in Vegas for that fight. The Brazilians travel extremely well so I assume it will shift back, plus most all other Bookmaker's still have McGregor as the slight dog.

The last two people I can think of that have come into the UFC and obliterated their competition the way McGregor has were Anderson Silva and Jon Jones, and maybe even through Chris Weidman in there. I realize there is a competition gap + Aldo is a much better P4P fighter than either Silva or Jones had to deal with, but I don't think it's as wide as most people would argue. Particularly the Max Holloway fight looks ridiculously impressive in hindsight.

If anyone who feels differently can provide an analogous counter-example to someone coming into the UFC and running through a division only to be exposed as an over-hyped commodity, I'm all ears.

And I also realize this is not an argument that stands alone as to why I think McGregor will win, I have plenty of other reasons that are more fight specific, but from a purely meta-visceral standpoint, this is one obvious point that should be made.

Edit: I did think of one maybe valid example in Jon Fitch, but I wouldn't say he's steamrolled guys.

Doubt Edit: I guess Daniel Cormier is a legit example as well. Still, few and far between and TBH, Jon Jones is a much more dominate champion than Aldo in much more of his prime, and he didn't exactly steamrole DC.

Triple Edit: Chad Mendes as well.... guess I'm doing a good job of refuting my initial point.

I've always felt McGregor will beat Aldo it's just a gut feeling that I get. I feel like the way Aldo fights as tough as he is, standing toe to toe with Mendes, I don't think he will last 5 rounds if he fights like this vs McGregor, he will constantly get hit since McGregor is taller and has longer reach, constantly pressures and would be harder to hit because of his stance.


note: Yes I am also an Aldo fan but I don't see him beating McGregor if he fought him the way he fought Mendes.

It's more than just reach with Mcgregor. He fights more perpendicular to his opponents, while Aldo seems to square up. This magnifies the reach advantage and he should be able to outbox Aldo pretty handily from distance. The question is if he can deal with the grappling, legkicks, and power on the inside. Really interested to see what Jack Slack and other strong striking analysts have to say about it.

Heads up for tomorrow's Bellator event:

Brandon Halsey vs. Kendall Grove was supposed to be for the middleweight title, but Halsey weighed in at 188.1, which is 3.1 pounds over the limit.

According to Ariel Helwani: "Bellator tells me that the deal is this: if Halsey wins, the belt is vacated. If Grove wins, he's the new champ. 5-round fight."

You can currently get Grove at +500 on 5dimes and Bookmaker. Mike Richman was also overweight by 3+ pounds, but his fight against Eduardo Dantas isn't for a title. Richman said he dried up in the sauna and couldn't cut anymore weight.

Aldo throws less and less legkicks with his fights, I hope this has been a strategical deliberate choice rather than simply how he is evolving because if he comes out kicking those legs Connor is fucked.

Connors ridiculously wide stance has always suffered against legkicks and actually just like Anderson Silva he raises his hand and taunts and exposes other parts trying to avoid more kicks.

So if I had a way to know that would be the way Aldo is going to fight Id say he is a -300 fav

On May 15 2015 01:33 Baalim wrote: Aldo throws less and less legkicks with his fights, I hope this has been a strategical deliberate choice rather than simply how he is evolving because if he comes out kicking those legs Connor is fucked. Connors ridiculously wide stance has always suffered against legkicks and actually just like Anderson Silva he raises his hand and taunts and exposes other parts trying to avoid more kicks. So if I had a way to know that would be the way Aldo is going to fight Id say he is a -300 fav

When has his wide stance suffered against legkicks? He's gotten hit with a few and it's reasonable to think Aldo's will hurt him and lead to an advantage but please name a fight where legkicks altered his style at all to the point where you could use the word 'suffer'.

On May 15 2015 01:39 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 15 2015 01:33 Baalim wrote: Aldo throws less and less legkicks with his fights, I hope this has been a strategical deliberate choice rather than simply how he is evolving because if he comes out kicking those legs Connor is fucked. Connors ridiculously wide stance has always suffered against legkicks and actually just like Anderson Silva he raises his hand and taunts and exposes other parts trying to avoid more kicks. So if I had a way to know that would be the way Aldo is going to fight Id say he is a -300 fav When has his wide stance suffered against legkicks? He's gotten hit with a few and it's reasonable to think Aldo's will hurt him and lead to an advantage but please name a fight where legkicks altered his style at all to the point where you could use the word 'suffer'.

I took it as Baal saying the stance suffers against legkicks, not necessarily Conor having struggled vs them. Think Shogun vs Machida, anyone vs the Diaz bros, etc. He really hasn't fought a guy who could hurt him that way. Max Holloway was injured and CM blanketed him the whole fight and the other guys were all mediocre or got blasted inside 10 minutes.

On May 15 2015 01:30 PuertoRican wrote: Heads up for tomorrow's Bellator event: Brandon Halsey vs. Kendall Grove was supposed to be for the middleweight title, but Halsey weighed in at 188.1, which is 3.1 pounds over the limit. According to Ariel Helwani: "Bellator tells me that the deal is this: if Halsey wins, the belt is vacated. If Grove wins, he's the new champ. 5-round fight." You can currently get Grove at +500 on 5dimes and Bookmaker. Mike Richman was also overweight by 3+ pounds, but his fight against Eduardo Dantas isn't for a title. Richman said he dried up in the sauna and couldn't cut anymore weight.

Dantas vs. Richman is cancelled: "The bantamweight showdown between former champion Eduardo Dantas and Mike Richman, scheduled for Friday’s Bellator event in Temecula, Calif., was canceled after Richman came in overweight for the contest, sources told MMAFighting.com.

Richman weighed in at 139.2 pounds for the bantamweight clash on Thursday’s official weigh-ins, and sources said that Dantas agreed to fight with the condition that Richman wouldn’t weight more than 147 pounds on fight night, but Richman declined."

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Halsey vs. Grove is still good to go.

Wow that Bellator card really went to shit. Early black eye for Coker.

I was ready to see Richman vs Duantes more than any other fight and Hasley missing weight will probably just roll through Grove in boring fashion and have a vacant title.

On May 14 2015 23:46 soberstone wrote: Particularly the Max Holloway fight looks ridiculously impressive in hindsight.

Max is a fighter who always shows up with a lot of improvement every fights.
Max fought conor at 21. He has improved A LOT since then. I'm not sure the 21 yo Max would have made Swanson look like a fool, would probably have been closer. Back then, Holloway almost lost to Leonard Garcia, a very average fighter.
I'm pretty sure today's Holloway isn't a walk in the park for anyone.

That being said, Conor himself has improved a lot a since then imo.

I think Conor vs Aldo is likely to be interesting and fun to watch. Aldo isn't a champion that tends to finish off opponements in 2 rounds, and he is so durable i find it very unlikely Conor finish him off very fast, i think its likely gonna be a war.
The over 2 round 1/2 sounds interesting to me.

On May 15 2015 02:36 soberstone wrote: Wow that Bellator card really went to shit. Early black eye for Coker. I was ready to see Richman vs Duantes more than any other fight and Hasley missing weight will probably just roll through Grove in boring fashion and have a vacant title.

I wouldn't be surprised if Grove won. Halsey can't go 3 full rounds without slowing down, and this is a 5-round fight. If Halsey can't get a 1st round finish, the odds start to tip in Grove's favor. Also, Grove doesn't mind fighting on the ground, as it's the place he rather fight anyway.

There's been a ton of upsets in Bellator over the years, even with their champions.

UPDATE: Dantas vs. Richman is back on for Bellator 137 after both camps agreed on new terms.

Conor has looked impressive in his wins but lets not forget the fact that all of this wins are against tailor made opponents for his style. Put Aldo against this opposition and he will likely destroy them all in brutal fashion.

I feel UFC has been protecting Conor from tough match ups for a reason and they are cashing in big on that fight. It is a win - win situation as even if Aldo beats him handily He is going to become a huge star ( just like Silva - Sonnen).

As for the fight Mcregor definately has the advantage in the stand up, but that is it. He is never faced a fighter ever remotely good as Aldo. I believe even if Aldo is having trouble landing leg kicks and is getting hammered on the feet, He can easily take Conor down and grapple with him, where He will have a huge edge.

I hope Aldo line gets better on most betting outlets. I am betting BIG on him anyway, but feel the Mcregor hype is so big, the line will move in his favour even more.

On May 15 2015 01:33 Baalim wrote: Aldo throws less and less legkicks with his fights, I hope this has been a strategical deliberate choice rather than simply how he is evolving because if he comes out kicking those legs Connor is fucked. Connors ridiculously wide stance has always suffered against legkicks and actually just like Anderson Silva he raises his hand and taunts and exposes other parts trying to avoid more kicks. So if I had a way to know that would be the way Aldo is going to fight Id say he is a -300 fav

Well his last couple fights have been against exceptional wrestlers in which his kicks make him vulnerable to takedowns, And KZ he broke his foot off KZs knee in the first round.

But in the llamas fight who isn't an elite wrestler, he kicked the shit out of his legs.

That said Conor has shown he can check kicks. He's checked a couple in the UFC and even has a Weidmanesque check that resulted in a leg break.

While Conors got the reach, size and boxing. Aldos got the speed and versatility. Very interested to see Aldos game plan.

weigh ins happening live right now bros!

Frankie Edgar (146) vs. Urijah Faber (146)
Gegard Mousasi (185) vs. Costas Philippou (186)
Luke Barnatt (185) vs. Mark Munoz (186)
Hyun Gyu Lim (171) vs. Neil Magny (171)
Yui Chul Nam (146) vs. Phillipe Nover (145)
Mark Eddiva (145) vs. Levan Makashvili (145)
Tae Hyun Bang (156) vs. Jon Tuck (156)
Kajan Johnson (155) vs. Zhang Lipeng (155)
Li Jingliang (171) vs. Dhiego Lima (170)
Ning Guangyou (135) vs. Royston Wee (137)*
Jon Delos Reyes (125) vs. Roldan Sangcha-an (126)
Nolan Ticman (126) vs. Yao Zhuikui (125)

* – Missed weight; fined 20 percent of purse.

Costas Phillippou does not pass the Cosmo eye test. That boy on the juice for sure