2015 NBA Playoffs Thread - Page 15

agree Warriors in 5 is most likely outcome

imo:

GSW in 5 >> GSW in 6 = GSW in 7 >> GSW in 4 > Cavs in 6 > Cavs in 7 >> Cavs in 5 > Cavs in 4

think dubs should be about a 3-1 favorite

2.5:1 prob more accurate

could be, i wasn't sure what numbers to use for homecourt advantage for each team so i pretty much just guessed. different sources give different numbers but i think avg. homecourt this year was only 2.33 pts according to Sagarin and it keeps shrinking, but neither GS/CLE have average homecourts and playoffs are supposedly different too (although i think last year was the first year that there was no difference between reg. season and postseason homecourt and everything is trending towards homecourt being irrelavent so who knows), so i just used 3.5 pts for GS and 3 pts for CLE. Warriors are -3 on neutral court according to ELO so i just went off that and worked out the percentages.

Rockets at +485. Prob bad bet, but I want them to force game 6 (obviously, they are my team) - and can't pass up. All games have been close except 3.

1st Quarter is best quarter of basketball the Rockets have played this year. Amazing perimeter defense / switching for 10-20 seconds and than Howard just being ridiculous in the paint at the end of possessions. Doubt they can keep this kind of D up for 48 minutes straight but God Dayam.

On May 28 2015 01:32 soberstone wrote: 1st Quarter is best quarter of basketball the Rockets have played this year. Amazing perimeter defense / switching for 10-20 seconds and than Howard just being ridiculous in the paint at the end of possessions. Doubt they can keep this kind of D up for 48 minutes straight but God Dayam.

I just tuned in as the 1st quarter ended. I'm currently focusing on the Over. I have a bet on o200.5 thus far.

Line opened roughly dubs -250, cavs +210 on most books. Slightly like dubs at that price. As some have said on twitter, have 4 guys that can guard LBJ: dray, iggy, barnes, and even bogut. And their role players are more than just catch and shoot guys like cleveland's are.

Tossing out a guess, think GSW should be about 75% to win. would have bet cavs +400, but won't bet more here, already have the GSW future pre playoffs.

bet gsw at 20:1 before the season

do i hedge now?

thinking no

its a small bet i'm a let it ride

On May 28 2015 04:21 Daut wrote: Tossing out a guess, think GSW should be about 75% to win.

validation!!

if anyone wants to bet at vig-free lines (which i think are +221.41 Cavs/ -221.41 W's) i'll take Warriors for up to $500 if we can find someone to escrow (or if it's someone super-reputable i would be fine just sending my bet).

so klay thompson reminds me of weidman
hopefully cavs gsw is a fun series

On May 28 2015 05:55 bigredhoss wrote: Show nested quote + On May 28 2015 04:21 Daut wrote: Tossing out a guess, think GSW should be about 75% to win. validation!! if anyone wants to bet at vig-free lines (which i think are +221.41 Cavs/ -221.41 W's) i'll take Warriors for up to $500 if we can find someone to escrow (or if it's someone super-reputable i would be fine just sending my bet).

ill take cavs $500 to win $1110. quote "confirmed" for book.

On May 28 2015 04:21 Daut wrote: Line opened roughly dubs -250, cavs +210 on most books. Slightly like dubs at that price. As some have said on twitter, have 4 guys that can guard LBJ: dray, iggy, barnes, and even bogut. And their role players are more than just catch and shoot guys like cleveland's are. Tossing out a guess, think GSW should be about 75% to win. would have bet cavs +400, but won't bet more here, already have the GSW future pre playoffs.

willing to bet on cavs juice free, lmk

On May 28 2015 13:46 CamilaPunt wrote: so klay thompson reminds me of weidman hopefully cavs gsw is a fun series

Aside from the smooth skin, I don't see any resemblance.

On May 28 2015 04:21 Daut wrote: Line opened roughly dubs -250, cavs +210 on most books. Slightly like dubs at that price. As some have said on twitter, have 4 guys that can guard LBJ: dray, iggy, barnes, and even bogut. And their role players are more than just catch and shoot guys like cleveland's are. Tossing out a guess, think GSW should be about 75% to win. would have bet cavs +400, but won't bet more here, already have the GSW future pre playoffs.

This for game 1, or the series?

Warriors are -230 for the series, -255 for game 1 @ Bookmaker.

On May 28 2015 16:29 n0rthf4ce wrote: Show nested quote + On May 28 2015 05:55 bigredhoss wrote:   On May 28 2015 04:21 Daut wrote: Tossing out a guess, think GSW should be about 75% to win. validation!! if anyone wants to bet at vig-free lines (which i think are +221.41 Cavs/ -221.41 W's) i'll take Warriors for up to $500 if we can find someone to escrow (or if it's someone super-reputable i would be fine just sending my bet). ill take cavs $500 to win $1110. quote "confirmed" for book.

hey peachy, i meant i would bet $500, sorry for confusion.

edit: series price is +165 / -190 on Bovada now, so i'd want to bet the vig-free line of +/- 173.6 or $500 to win ~$288. if that's still ok with you then bet is confirmed. is there a link to the series prices on other books? what's the

edit2: what are the series prices now at other books? i'm mostly just finding game 1 odds, but if the series prices aren't too different from bovada's i'll probably bet at their no-vig lines too.

On May 29 2015 01:46 bigredhoss wrote: Show nested quote + On May 28 2015 16:29 n0rthf4ce wrote:   On May 28 2015 05:55 bigredhoss wrote:   On May 28 2015 04:21 Daut wrote: Tossing out a guess, think GSW should be about 75% to win. validation!! if anyone wants to bet at vig-free lines (which i think are +221.41 Cavs/ -221.41 W's) i'll take Warriors for up to $500 if we can find someone to escrow (or if it's someone super-reputable i would be fine just sending my bet). ill take cavs $500 to win $1110. quote "confirmed" for book. hey peachy, i meant i would bet $500, sorry for confusion. edit: series price is +165 / -190 on Bovada now, so i'd want to bet the vig-free line of +/- 173.6 or $500 to win ~$288. if that's still ok with you then bet is confirmed. is there a link to the series prices on other books? what's the edit2: what are the series prices now at other books? i'm mostly just finding game 1 odds, but if the series prices aren't too different from bovada's i'll probably bet at their no-vig lines too.

not booked at this current number, sorry!

PS that is a fantastic number for golden state.

yeah i was surprised when i saw it, have to admit i'm a little confused at why the price has been moving more towards Cleveland's side. anyway, gl!

-180 now on bovada... this line seems really good.. am I right?