UFC on FOX 15: Machida vs. Rockhold - Page 4

On April 18 2015 15:22 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On April 18 2015 00:52 PuertoRican wrote:   On April 18 2015 00:31 Floofy wrote:   On April 18 2015 00:00 jvilla777 wrote: After watching the weigh ins I thought Rockhold vs Machida was more of a coinflip, because I don't see any significant opponents that Rockhold beat besides Souza, most of his past opponents are pretty much unknown or are UFC famous but not very good. However now this GIF that PR posted I'm now leaning towards Rockhold. That reaction looks like something was already painful and not an on the spot "oh I kinda pull a muscle just now" reaction. Max Holloway is a gold mine every time he fights, most of the time he's an underdog and he delivers, I'm pretty sure his height and reach is a huge advantage in a "striker vs striker match up" I don't ever see cub taking anyone down. Betting on Herrig as well only cuz PVZ was like all laughing and smiling during face offs while Herrig looked ready and hungry as fuaark. Holloway does not have a reach advantage. they have the same reach. Statistically, higher height with no reach advantage is actually a disadvantage. Not exactly. Both guys do have the same reach, but Cub will be punching upward at an angle, while Max will be punching downward at an angle. If you know the basics of angles, you know that you lose power when you punch upward. I don't see Max's reach being a disadvantage just because it's the same as Cub's. Both guys don't have short arms, so it's not that big of a deal when you think about it. Anyway, Cub only fights technical for about a round, so I don't think it matters much, cuz he'll eventually switch up to throwing punches that leave him wide open, and also the spinning kicks that never land. Cub can win though, he just needs to be ultra aggressive for at least 2 rounds, or he'll lose to a more active and technical MMA striker, imo. ---------- Dana White said this 30 minutes before the weigh-ins started: "Holy shit!!! Lyoto Machida cutting weight. Weighs ins start in 30 mins on FOX Sports 2." The "holy shit" comment was due to Machida cutting that much water weight 30 minutes before he had to get on the scale. I've never cut weight, so I dunno if it's normal or not. Here's the video: There are statistic that proves that, at equal reach, being taller is a disavantage. Its from fightonomics, they did a study on that. This does not mean Holloway will lose tho. As an example, a lot of UFC champions/Goat usually have a longer reach than normal for their height, and they're usually not the tallest of their weight class,

All these MMA studies have such small sample sizes I would think, but if I had to guess, this has to do more with the shorter guy with the longer reach having the wrestling advantage which directly impacts striking statistics.

In a fight like this where wrestling is gonna have very little to do with anything - IMO - that's irrelevant.

I have no idea, but that's just my guess as to why any study would say being shorter with equal reach is advantage striking, because I can't make sense of it otherwise.

On April 18 2015 18:31 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On April 18 2015 15:22 Floofy wrote:   On April 18 2015 00:52 PuertoRican wrote:   On April 18 2015 00:31 Floofy wrote:   On April 18 2015 00:00 jvilla777 wrote: After watching the weigh ins I thought Rockhold vs Machida was more of a coinflip, because I don't see any significant opponents that Rockhold beat besides Souza, most of his past opponents are pretty much unknown or are UFC famous but not very good. However now this GIF that PR posted I'm now leaning towards Rockhold. That reaction looks like something was already painful and not an on the spot "oh I kinda pull a muscle just now" reaction. Max Holloway is a gold mine every time he fights, most of the time he's an underdog and he delivers, I'm pretty sure his height and reach is a huge advantage in a "striker vs striker match up" I don't ever see cub taking anyone down. Betting on Herrig as well only cuz PVZ was like all laughing and smiling during face offs while Herrig looked ready and hungry as fuaark. Holloway does not have a reach advantage. they have the same reach. Statistically, higher height with no reach advantage is actually a disadvantage. You are right a part of it is because of take downs/wrestling, but i would add that its easier for the shorter guy to make weight or pack on more muscle mass. As an example, Swanson clearly has more muscle mass than Holloway, and i wouldn't be surprised if his weight cut was easier. Not exactly. Both guys do have the same reach, but Cub will be punching upward at an angle, while Max will be punching downward at an angle. If you know the basics of angles, you know that you lose power when you punch upward. I don't see Max's reach being a disadvantage just because it's the same as Cub's. Both guys don't have short arms, so it's not that big of a deal when you think about it. Anyway, Cub only fights technical for about a round, so I don't think it matters much, cuz he'll eventually switch up to throwing punches that leave him wide open, and also the spinning kicks that never land. Cub can win though, he just needs to be ultra aggressive for at least 2 rounds, or he'll lose to a more active and technical MMA striker, imo. ---------- Dana White said this 30 minutes before the weigh-ins started: "Holy shit!!! Lyoto Machida cutting weight. Weighs ins start in 30 mins on FOX Sports 2." The "holy shit" comment was due to Machida cutting that much water weight 30 minutes before he had to get on the scale. I've never cut weight, so I dunno if it's normal or not. Here's the video: There are statistic that proves that, at equal reach, being taller is a disavantage. Its from fightonomics, they did a study on that. This does not mean Holloway will lose tho. As an example, a lot of UFC champions/Goat usually have a longer reach than normal for their height, and they're usually not the tallest of their weight class, All these MMA studies have such small sample sizes I would think, but if I had to guess, this has to do more with the shorter guy with the longer reach having the wrestling advantage which directly impacts striking statistics. In a fight like this where wrestling is gonna have very little to do with anything - IMO - that's irrelevant. I have no idea, but that's just my guess as to why any study would say being shorter with equal reach is advantage striking, because I can't make sense of it otherwise.

Yes you are right that one reason is wrestling, but personally i think the main reason is because its easier to cut weight when you're smaller, or pack on more muscle. As an example, Swanson clearly has more muscle mass.

Fight Pass: http://firstrowus1.eu/watch/339090/1/watch-ufc-on-fox:-early-preliminaries.html

Small bet on Hettes here at +155. He'll probably lose but I'll take the odds and hope Brandao blows his wad.

Good win for Dempsey.

Regarding Hettes, his striking and striking defense is so terrible, and he has poor TDD. Hettes does have a slick submission game, but Brandao does too.

I had no idea this had Hettis vs Brandao these days I barely even bother looking what's on the prelims with the junk they put on there. That's a decent fight!

On April 18 2015 21:01 soberstone wrote: Small bet on Hettes here at +155. He'll probably lose but I'll take the odds and hope Brandao blows his wad.

Would have done the same there. He will win rounds 2/3.

Wow? Lol. Felt great about it after round 1. Brandao was about to fold for sure, what an awful bullshit stoppage.

Weird stoppage. Hettes' ear wasn't that bad. Hopefully the UFC gives him another shot, even though he's on a losing streak.

That gash looks like it can cut through the entire thing anytime. Looks pretty bad to me.

Also a bullshit fence grab by Brandao that altered the round itself. But regardless, this was textbook Brandao folding in the making.

I really don't mind the stoppage. Either way good bet on Hettis.

Took Brandao right before the fight, he just had a lot of energy.

Have Sullivan too, even though I'm not entirely sure about it, I like Tim Means, but don't think his style will produce an edge here, and liked the odds.

Yah I'm obviously biased about the stoppage but I really do feel like I agree with Rogan. That said, he was downplaying it big time... lol

I like Sullivan over Means in this next fight. Sullivan looked the best he ever has during the weigh-ins, and he's way more aggressive than Means, and is the hometown fighter. Means is super dangerous, so it won't be easy for either guy.

I went the other way. I think Means has a lot more to offer on the feet. We'll see.

I think Means is great on the feet. I just don't think his style will match up well here, and accept that I could be completely wrong.

What do you guys think of Swanson at -145?

SORRY PR

Sullivan has no shot.

On April 18 2015 21:34 Nazgul wrote: SORRY PR Sullivan has no shot.

No worries, I only have fantasy teams for this card, no bets on any of the fights.

Tim Means looks legit in this fight, so congrats to him.

Seems Sullivan is just too many levels behind Means, I thought he would be a bit mroe advanced. His style does match up pretty well, but hes too many levels behind techniquewise.