On March 17 2015 16:31 whamm! wrote:
jeez such a bullshit card. bruce buffer must hate calling these intros
Brazilian cards allow The Buff to fuck random Brazilian women. I mean, who doesn't want a piece of "The Voice of the Octagon"?
On March 17 2015 15:08 Nazgul wrote:
I don't understand the Silva vs Koscheck line. Will be looking to bet $75 at +350.
Did you get to take advantage of Overeem's -140 to -150 line last weekend? I didn't bet it, but it was a super juicy line when you look back at his performance.
That Overeem thing is so hind-sighty though. He got knocked down by a 1-legged no offense Roy Nelson in the 3rd. If that happens in the 1st the narrative goes back to how worthless Overeem is. For as long as he's from here out, until he gets KO'd again - probably soon, there will zero value on Overeem.
That said I agree his performance was great.
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soberstone United States. Mar 18 2015 03:55. Posts 2662
On March 17 2015 22:11 Minsk wrote:
What % chance that Erick Silva knocks out Josh Koschek in 1.5 rounds?
I'd put the number at 60 % if you include submissions as well
Edit: And even if he survives the inevitable onslought, it's not like he's Matt Brown and is gonna cardio rape Silva with vicious violence. He'll still lose a decision. His only chance is 1 of his big rights cuz Silva is a bit chinny. Edit: And I guess maybe getting some early TD's and setting the pace from on top but I don't think that's very likely either - Silva is athletic as hell and in his prime presumably.
Erick Silva absolutely sucks. His record is padded with first round finishes against complete cans. Everytime he gets top 10 opponent he is getting destroyed. I don't think he is a bit chinny, it is just He always fights with his hands down.
And I don't think Koscheck is some world beater this days. The guy is obviously in the end of his career and on massive decline. Erick Silva is a favourite for a reason, I just don't think he should be that big of a favourite. At +350 there is value in Kos.
On March 17 2015 16:31 whamm! wrote:
jeez such a bullshit card. bruce buffer must hate calling these intros
Brazilian cards allow The Buff to fuck random Brazilian women. I mean, who doesn't want a piece of "The Voice of the Octagon"?
On March 17 2015 15:08 Nazgul wrote:
I don't understand the Silva vs Koscheck line. Will be looking to bet $75 at +350.
Did you get to take advantage of Overeem's -140 to -150 line last weekend? I didn't bet it, but it was a super juicy line when you look back at his performance.
That Overeem thing is so hind-sighty though. He got knocked down by a 1-legged no offense Roy Nelson in the 3rd. If that happens in the 1st the narrative goes back to how worthless Overeem is. For as long as he's from here out, until he gets KO'd again - probably soon, there will zero value on Overeem.
That said I agree his performance was great.
I've made my mistakes with Overeem but I feel like you can learn from them and still make successful bets. I ended up betting $290 on -145 on Overeem last weekend. I absolutely don't agree with you that it was only obvious in hindsight, because Roy always gasses after the first round. He can never followup. I also saw Cosmo saying the same thing that if he had just followed up he would have finished it. While that is of course true, Roy Nelson has never been able to follow anything up after the first round, whereas Overeem has a lot of trouble with people who do. Overeem gets a lot more susceptible to being hit after the first round as well when he slows down a little and puts down his hands. This was a great matchup for him and -145 was really a no brainer in advance. Next time I will be a lot more reluctant to bet on Overeem, but the Nelson matchup was a good one.
You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo
Last edit: 18/03/2015 16:17
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Minsk United States. Mar 18 2015 20:57. Posts 1558
On March 17 2015 22:11 Minsk wrote:
What % chance that Erick Silva knocks out Josh Koschek in 1.5 rounds?
I'd put the number at 60 % if you include submissions as well
Edit: And even if he survives the inevitable onslought, it's not like he's Matt Brown and is gonna cardio rape Silva with vicious violence. He'll still lose a decision. His only chance is 1 of his big rights cuz Silva is a bit chinny. Edit: And I guess maybe getting some early TD's and setting the pace from on top but I don't think that's very likely either - Silva is athletic as hell and in his prime presumably.
Really think Koscheck is that indurable? Think you might have just convinced me to avoid the o1.5.
I thought he was pretty durable and his wrestling would prolong the fight.
On March 17 2015 22:11 Minsk wrote:
What % chance that Erick Silva knocks out Josh Koschek in 1.5 rounds?
I'd put the number at 60 % if you include submissions as well
Edit: And even if he survives the inevitable onslought, it's not like he's Matt Brown and is gonna cardio rape Silva with vicious violence. He'll still lose a decision. His only chance is 1 of his big rights cuz Silva is a bit chinny. Edit: And I guess maybe getting some early TD's and setting the pace from on top but I don't think that's very likely either - Silva is athletic as hell and in his prime presumably.
Really think Koscheck is that indurable? Think you might have just convinced me to avoid the o1.5.
I thought he was pretty durable and his wrestling would prolong the fight.
As soon as Ellenberger touched his face he looked completely uncomfortable and that eye that GSP destroyed started acting up. I just heard an interview of him today and I am completely convinced he will retire after this fight and is just getting it out of the way (last fight on contract) quick as possible while he is still in shape from his last fight camp. He's done and he knows it.
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soberstone United States. Mar 19 2015 00:54. Posts 2662
Just watched all of E. Silva's fights.... definitely want to walk back my confidence. I was thinking about the career path Koschek and thinking there is zero chance for him based on how shitty a 170er he probably is at this point.... but man Erick Silva has such a high variance fight style, I wouldn't touch him. If Koschek got to 5:1 I'd lay some coin on him I think.
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PuertoRican United States. Mar 19 2015 00:59. Posts 13054
On March 17 2015 22:11 Minsk wrote:
What % chance that Erick Silva knocks out Josh Koschek in 1.5 rounds?
I'd put the number at 60 % if you include submissions as well
Edit: And even if he survives the inevitable onslought, it's not like he's Matt Brown and is gonna cardio rape Silva with vicious violence. He'll still lose a decision. His only chance is 1 of his big rights cuz Silva is a bit chinny. Edit: And I guess maybe getting some early TD's and setting the pace from on top but I don't think that's very likely either - Silva is athletic as hell and in his prime presumably.
Really think Koscheck is that indurable? Think you might have just convinced me to avoid the o1.5.
I thought he was pretty durable and his wrestling would prolong the fight.
As soon as Ellenberger touched his face he looked completely uncomfortable and that eye that GSP destroyed started acting up. I just heard an interview of him today and I am completely convinced he will retire after this fight and is just getting it out of the way (last fight on contract) quick as possible while he is still in shape from his last fight camp. He's done and he knows it.
Yep.
Whether he wins or loses, it's the last fight on his contract, and I don't see him resigning for another 3+ fights, especially since he's 37 (turns 38 in November), he will never sniff a title shot again (especially since he already lost to the top 2 guys), and he's been fighting for 11+ years in MMA (not counting all the years he spent as a top collegiate wrestler).
Also, in his 11 year MMA career, the shortest amount of time he's ever taken a fight is on 1.5 months (6-7 weeks). This is the first time he's ever taken a fight on 3 weeks notice, and it just so happens to be the last fight on his contract, in Brazil, against a Brazilian whom most people know the UFC has tried to build up over the years but have never been able to do it cuz he keeps winning 1/losing 1. Lastly, it's not as if Koscheck is an active fighter on a skid, prior to his most recent fight 2 weeks ago, Koscheck hadn't fought in 15 months.
He'll probably end up somewhere eventually. It's a good time to be a free agent and I suspect things may be a little too tempting.
You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo
Last edit: 19/03/2015 10:38
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Minsk United States. Mar 19 2015 21:29. Posts 1558
Last edit: 19/03/2015 21:35
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PuertoRican United States. Mar 20 2015 19:35. Posts 13054
Weigh-ins:
Are YouTube videos not displaying properly for anyone else on LP? It just shows a black rectangle box, and when I click it, it says there's an error. This started a few days ago. It does it on my PC and mobile phone, and both have up-to-date browsers. All other website show embedded YouTube videos just fine, so I'm not missing a plug-in.
jvilla777 Australia. Mar 20 2015 20:02. Posts 1348
yeah the embedded videos are jus showing a black box and clicking on it gives an error, this is happening on my macbook and desktop, all other websites with youtube embedded videos are working except for LP.
longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality!
On March 17 2015 22:11 Minsk wrote:
What % chance that Erick Silva knocks out Josh Koschek in 1.5 rounds?
I'd put the number at 60 % if you include submissions as well
Edit: And even if he survives the inevitable onslought, it's not like he's Matt Brown and is gonna cardio rape Silva with vicious violence. He'll still lose a decision. His only chance is 1 of his big rights cuz Silva is a bit chinny. Edit: And I guess maybe getting some early TD's and setting the pace from on top but I don't think that's very likely either - Silva is athletic as hell and in his prime presumably.
Really think Koscheck is that indurable? Think you might have just convinced me to avoid the o1.5.
I thought he was pretty durable and his wrestling would prolong the fight.
As soon as Ellenberger touched his face he looked completely uncomfortable and that eye that GSP destroyed started acting up. I just heard an interview of him today and I am completely convinced he will retire after this fight and is just getting it out of the way (last fight on contract) quick as possible while he is still in shape from his last fight camp. He's done and he knows it.
Yep.
Whether he wins or loses, it's the last fight on his contract, and I don't see him resigning for another 3+ fights, especially since he's 37 (turns 38 in November), he will never sniff a title shot again (especially since he already lost to the top 2 guys), and he's been fighting for 11+ years in MMA (not counting all the years he spent as a top collegiate wrestler).
Also, in his 11 year MMA career, the shortest amount of time he's ever taken a fight is on 1.5 months (6-7 weeks). This is the first time he's ever taken a fight on 3 weeks notice, and it just so happens to be the last fight on his contract, in Brazil, against a Brazilian whom most people know the UFC has tried to build up over the years but have never been able to do it cuz he keeps winning 1/losing 1. Lastly, it's not as if Koscheck is an active fighter on a skid, prior to his most recent fight 2 weeks ago, Koscheck hadn't fought in 15 months.
Anyway, gL to all you Koscheck bettors out there.
nobody thinks the fight is close but +400 is too good when Silva is so unreliable and wrestlers arent good matchups for him
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
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PuertoRican United States. Mar 21 2015 21:28. Posts 13054
LaFlare down to -107. He was at -104, but I waited too long. People are betting Maia like crazy.
Rekrul is a newb
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soberstone United States. Mar 21 2015 22:20. Posts 2662
Rousey opens at -1500 vs Betche on 5 dimes. But you can only get Betche at +700. That juice is jut stupid, but its cuz it's only open on like 2 sites.
Rousey will still be a fine little paylay-capper if she gets under -1100 by fight night, which with the build-up and more competitive lines for Betche I bet she will. It's silly to think that Tyson was at like -4500 when he fought Buster Douglas yet Ronda could still be in the -1000 range.
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PuertoRican United States. Mar 22 2015 00:05. Posts 13054
Netherlands. Mar 18 2015 13:14. Posts 7080
