UFC 185: Pettis vs. dos Anjos - Page 4

Just watched weigh-in. Cruikshank looked like he's in trouble. He's probably gonna kill my hail mary parlays by getting gassed and subbed. Hendrick's looked incredible. Cejudo also made a statement by getting all the way to 125. He also has an enormous head.

On March 14 2015 00:17 soberstone wrote: Just watched weigh-in. Cruikshank looked like he's in trouble. He's probably gonna kill my hail mary parlays by getting gassed and subbed. Hendrick's looked incredible. Cejudo also made a statement by getting all the way to 125. He also has an enormous head.

Cruickshank initially weighed in at 157.5 pounds. He attempted to cut the weight but only lost half a pound. So, the 157 pound Cruickshank will be fined 20% of his prize purse.

Just laid down $30.00 on Pettis by tko/ko/dq at +170. Probably gonna think about it a little more and than put more down. That line seems pretty obscenely good to me. Sure he might jump on a sub instead after he hurts RDA, but there's no question in my mind he's gonna finish him.

On March 14 2015 01:07 soberstone wrote: Just laid down $30.00 on Pettis by tko/ko/dq at +170. Probably gonna think about it a little more and than put more down. That line seems pretty obscenely good to me. Sure he might jump on a sub instead after he hurts RDA, but there's no question in my mind he's gonna finish him.

Betting on Bookmaker?

If so, they open up various lines via live betting before the fight starts. The live betting lines include: +3.5/-3.5 points (depending on the fight), Inside the Distance lines, KO/Submission/Decision lines for both fighters, lines for the Total, etc.

I have 2-3 people who I'm gonna bet 2 or more units on once the +3.5 points become available via live betting. I wish Bookmaker would step up their game and add similar props that 5dimes uses.

Matt Brown is 34 and took a lot of damage in that Lawler fight and more so - he's taken a ton of damage in his career and one advantage he has in all his fights is that he's so unbreakable.

We could see an end to that attribute if Hendricks does what I'm thinking he might whether it just be landing a fuckload of hard shots and especially punishing that vulnerable body or getting the 1-punch KO. I don't think he's gonna respect Brown's punching power much. Not when he just shook off the best Robbie had to offer.

On March 14 2015 01:16 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On March 14 2015 01:07 soberstone wrote: Just laid down $30.00 on Pettis by tko/ko/dq at +170. Probably gonna think about it a little more and than put more down. That line seems pretty obscenely good to me. Sure he might jump on a sub instead after he hurts RDA, but there's no question in my mind he's gonna finish him. Betting on Bookmaker? If so, they open up various lines via live betting before the fight starts. The live betting lines include: +3.5/-3.5 points (depending on the fight), Inside the Distance lines, KO/Submission/Decision lines for both fighters, lines for the Total, etc. I have 2-3 people who I'm gonna bet 2 or more units on once the +3.5 points become available via live betting. I wish Bookmaker would step up their game and add similar props that 5dimes uses.

Yah

I want to hedge with Dariush by sub but that's not available. Will probably be live betting that one.

This is the first time I feel comfortable betting Hendricks, seeing him shake uncontrollably in his previous fights was pretty lol.

Dos Anjos looked super scary during the face off. Still considering betting this.

betting Overeem+Joanna+Hendricks @4.33, Hail Mary on Overeem, Hopefully he fights the clinch game and don't stand and trade with Nelson otherwise GG.

Degen floofy is in the house

$1.00 $347.40 Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 3/14/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1059 Anjos points handicap +5½ +205* vs Pettis points handicap
Pending 3/14/15 11:30pm Props Fighting 1105 Esparza wins inside distance +249* vs Not Esparza inside distance
Pending 3/14/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1209 Hendricks wins inside distance +243* vs Not Hendricks inside distance
Pending 3/14/15 10:30pm Props Fighting 1333 Nelson wins by TKO/KO +175* vs Any other result
Pending 3/14/15 10:00pm Props Fighting 1409 Cejudo wins inside distance +247* vs Not Cejudo inside distance

Please hold!

Overeem Nelson is one of the few fights I'm not betting on. I won't even try to guess the values, I'll just enjoy the fights on its merits of an awesome 2015 Heavyweight paradox.

Holy shit Hendricks has put in some good work. He looked amazing. Rooting for Pettis and Hendricks aand Overeem tonight. I can't stand Roy "manboobs" Nelson. What a bum.
Also funny how the ring girls try real hard not to look at fighters getting undressed

bets on RDA, Esparza and Reem. GL tonight.

On March 14 2015 06:47 PuertoRican wrote:

LOL war JJ

$1.00 $26.37 Pending 2 Team Parlay
Pending 3/14/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1005 Anjos wins inside distance +698* vs Not Anjos inside distance
Pending 3/14/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1209 Hendricks wins inside distance +243* vs Not Hendricks inside distance

I like this one :D

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On March 14 2015 02:51 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On March 14 2015 01:16 PuertoRican wrote:   On March 14 2015 01:07 soberstone wrote: Just laid down $30.00 on Pettis by tko/ko/dq at +170. Probably gonna think about it a little more and than put more down. That line seems pretty obscenely good to me. Sure he might jump on a sub instead after he hurts RDA, but there's no question in my mind he's gonna finish him. Betting on Bookmaker? If so, they open up various lines via live betting before the fight starts. The live betting lines include: +3.5/-3.5 points (depending on the fight), Inside the Distance lines, KO/Submission/Decision lines for both fighters, lines for the Total, etc. I have 2-3 people who I'm gonna bet 2 or more units on once the +3.5 points become available via live betting. I wish Bookmaker would step up their game and add similar props that 5dimes uses. Yah I want to hedge with Dariush by sub but that's not available. Will probably be live betting that one.

Dariush/Cruickshank props are back up. Dariush sub is +295.

Overeem was -205 on the first page when Naz posted, any particular reason why hes -143 now?

On March 14 2015 20:56 nicksson wrote: Overeem was -205 on the first page when Naz posted, any particular reason why hes -143 now?

He was -250 for a while and suddenly massively dropped

On March 14 2015 20:56 nicksson wrote: Overeem was -205 on the first page when Naz posted, any particular reason why hes -143 now?

Overeem's line went to -140 or so before the weigh-in. He weighed in the lowest he's ever weighed in the UFC.

I was originally gonna bet Nelson at +180, but since his line got bet down so much, I just put a bet on Nelson by KO/TKO/DQ at +175.

My read on the fight:

A lot of bettors are thinking Overeem will take Nelson down and win via decision. I think otherwise.

Due to Nelson's height and assumption that Overeem will try to take him down in the first round, I assume Nelson will be ready for this and be able to counter it. Nelson has worked with Jeff Mayweather for over a year, and basic boxing footwork will be able to avoid the basic take down attempts that Overeem will try.

Regarding the cardio, both are known to have below average cardio. Nelson is known to finish opponents in the 1st round, or lose the fight. Nelson only has 1 finish outside of the first round in the past 7 years or so. However, while Nelson is less likely to get a finish outside of round 1 in most fights, Overeem's cardio and chin issues make Nelson's chances of finishing in rounds 2 and 3 more likely than in the past.

IMO, I see a finish in under 1.5 rounds, which is why I like u1.5 at -120. While Nelson has a sick chin, he won't be able to do shit if Overeem gets on top of him and starts using his underrated GnP. Nelson can also win. The only bet I don't like is Overeem's ML.

(I re-read this and noticed it sounds like I'm all over the place. Basically, I have no faith in betting Overeem's ML, so I'd rather take his opponent and/or bet the under. I hope Overeem wins, but I won't even bet his ML at evens because I get sad when he loses for some reason... I'd rather be sad and still have my money, instead of sad and broke.)

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