UFC on FOX 14: Gustafsson vs. Johnson - Page 2

March 2011, Rumble fought Dan Hardy at 170 lbs and mostly avoided stand up so he could wrestle decision his way to a win. Literally only two years later, he beat Andre Arlovski, a career heavyweight, in a mostly uneventful stand-up fight. Now almost two years after that, he's being talked as possibly the guy to challenge the best fighter in the world, Jones. Weird stuff

No idea who'll win but rooting for Rumble. Of the opinion that Jones controls Gus in a kind of boring rematch. And Rumble, esp if he pulls this off, will make for a really interesting first 2-3 rounds vs Jones

Also like Bader. Hunch he could look better than expected on the feet where he's improved a bit. Davis is really so poor technically on the feet that he masks with athleticism

On January 20 2015 02:05 gryzzlybearr wrote: Gegard is just going to win a 30-27 decision with his jab. He is too smart and experienced and will not engage with Henderson,and also has a pretty solid chin so he may well survive even if he gets caught. Henderson throws 20 punches per round and he can not win a decision.If Moussasi fights to win a decision it is going to be an awful fight to watch.

Mousasi supposedly could have fought alike vs Jacare and avoid his wild haymakers but he fought like an idiot, im not confident in Mousasis ring IQ anymore

On January 20 2015 19:11 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On January 20 2015 05:07 Nazgul wrote: Just put in a bet on Gustafsson at -252 for $378. It was at -224 for a bit and I would have bet more then. I just kind of feel Gustafsson/Jones/Cormier are at a way higher level than the rest, even if Johson has looked pretty good. The 205 division has sucked ever since Pride died and Jones has just been feasting off of old reputations. Johnson beating lil' Nog is meaningless to me as any of those three would just crush him too. He also embarrassed Phil Davis. If he's not with those 3, he's definitely #4 and #5 is way, way far away. I do think Gus will give him trouble with his movement and length. Johnson is a little too plodding with his footwork and Gus & Jones will exploit the shit out of that. That said, he explodes and hits as hard as anyone at that weight, and Gus is super hittable. I do expect Gus to win a decision or late tko the majority of the time though. Mostly because I don't think Johnsons cardio can be that good with the way he is built. I think in a 3 rounder he could give Gus a close match though with pressure and bombs. I think people forget that right before the Jones fight, broken Shogun gave Gus a hell of a fight. Won the first round in my book, and the 2nd round was relatively close, albeit for sure a Gus round. Wonder if Johnson can continue to not get popped for roids. I'm basically 99% sure he's on roids. I mean he was always a big WW, but he turned into a fucking tank after going to blackzillians. I mean he's one of the biggest LHW's around. He walks at like 230ish ripped as fuck. Built like a tank. He put on like 30 pounds of solid muscle in less than a year, no way that was natty.

I definitely agree Johnson seems to be a clear #4 leaving a pretty decent gap below him to the next best fighter. I just feel LHW isn't very good at the moment and that Davis/Rashad are basically the best of the rest. I see a huge divider with Gustafsson/Cormier/Jones being the 'new' (Cormier being 35) breed, and then Rashad/Davis leading the rest of the pack, with Johnson floating somewhere in between but still being significantly worse than the other three. We'll see when they fight I could be wrong it is a lot of theory crafting.

Is Mousasi even worth betting at -330 ?

On January 21 2015 02:18 Spitfiree wrote: Is Mousasi even worth betting at -330 ?

His cardio and what seems to be lack of understanding of the point-game makes him a tough bet. I would sooner consider Hendo he has a good record with lucky decisions.

On January 21 2015 03:21 Nazgul wrote: Show nested quote + On January 21 2015 02:18 Spitfiree wrote: Is Mousasi even worth betting at -330 ? His cardio and what seems to be lack of understanding of the point-game makes him a tough bet. I would sooner consider Hendo he has a good record with lucky decisions.

You're correct about Mousasi.

Regarding Hendo, this fight is at 185 pounds, and Hendo hasn't fought at 185 pounds since his loss to Jake Shields in Strikeforce in April 2010; Hendo didn't have the best cardio in that fight. Also, Hendo SHOULD be on a 5-fight losing streak; Shogun was kicking his ass until Hendo landed that one punch that broke Shogun's nose and put him on his butt.

Anyway, I won't be betting this fight, so I don't care who wins. Hendo looks worse in every fight, and I've said many times that I must've missed Mousasi's best years of fighting because he has never impressed me in any of the fights he's had since the first time I saw him in April 2010.

Always bet on black. I like Johnson because his career is too weird

On January 21 2015 03:28 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On January 21 2015 03:21 Nazgul wrote:   On January 21 2015 02:18 Spitfiree wrote: Is Mousasi even worth betting at -330 ? His cardio and what seems to be lack of understanding of the point-game makes him a tough bet. I would sooner consider Hendo he has a good record with lucky decisions. You're correct about Mousasi. Regarding Hendo, this fight is at 185 pounds, and Hendo hasn't fought at 185 pounds since his loss to Jake Shields in Strikeforce in April 2010; Hendo didn't have the best cardio in that fight. Also, Hendo SHOULD be on a 5-fight losing streak; Shogun was kicking his ass until Hendo landed that one punch that broke Shogun's nose and put him on his butt. Anyway, I won't be betting this fight, so I don't care who wins. Hendo looks worse in every fight, and I've said many times that I must've missed Mousasi's best years of fighting because he has never impressed me in any of the fights he's had since the first time I saw him in April 2010.

When I was most impressed about Mousasi and his potential/future is around 2008 when he was on a winning streak in MMA that included Lombard, Kang, Manhoef, Jacare. Several of those were beautiful submissions. At this point he went to K-1 and in a standup match and fought Musashi to KO him in the first round (which is unreal). He followed this up with a Kimura win over Hunt shortly after. He was 22 years old at this point and excelled at important facets such as standup, groundgame, fight iq, and was still really young with lots of time for growth. It seems like he already adapted a mindset, one I think was much more common back then than it is now, that misses several things to be a champion in the modern era. The fight iq game developed, the sport advanced. You now have to be incredibly professional both in training as well as things like cutting weight. Besides that you also had to adapt and focus on your wrestling. The mindset back then was that if you were sick on the ground then you could just submit people if they took you down. The mindset now is that even if you are sick on the ground your opponent is likely good enough to avoid getting subbed. You can't let yourself get taken down. Anyway Mousasi is still only 29 and has plenty of time to turn things around and possibly become a champion. But I'm not betting on that he does.

On January 20 2015 18:07 PuertoRican wrote: You can't put much stock into Rumble's previous losses in the UFC, because they were at a different weight class, and he often had cardio troubles. He fights at 205 now, where his cardio is much better and he's stronger. It's kinda crazy that hist first run in the UFC was at 170 pounds. Anyway, even with improved cardio and not having to cut so much weight, I still think Gustafsson will beat Rumble.

Yes, I agree he's a completely new fighter now. However I am not sold on him just yet, Phil Davis stand up is very bad, so beating him up when able to negate his wrestling is not so impresive . Lil Nog is like a walking zombie. It was a sad fight to watch.
Gus chin is very solid. He has been hit with some hard shots and head kicks and the only time I have seen him shooked up was against Jones after the spining elbow. Even then he was able to survive so It is really hard for me to imagine for Rumble to KO him, which I think is the only way he is going to win this fight.
I think Gus by KO/TKO is also a very good bet at + 250.

I have no idea how Dan Henderson is going to beat Mousasi.

I thought there was value in Gustaffson / Mousasi / Bader before but the lines on Gustaffson / Mousasi have shrunk.

Gustaffson is primarily a boxer, and wide power punchers are exactly what boxers train to pick apart.

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Rewatched Jones vs Gus this AM and wow.... Jones was so slow that fight compared to all his other bouts, I know its old news but it really re-enforced to me that he really didn't train for that fight or was going through those personal issues we have been hearing about.... I really think Gus's stock might be a little bit too high right now. I'm like AJ more and more at the current odds as time goes by.

On January 22 2015 14:21 soberstone wrote: Rewatched Jones vs Gus this AM and wow.... Jones was so slow that fight compared to all his other bouts, I know its old news but it really re-enforced to me that he really didn't train for that fight or was going through those personal issues we have been hearing about.... I really think Gus's stock might be a little bit too high right now. I'm like AJ more and more at the current odds as time goes by.

If Rumble won, do you think he'd get a finish, or win by decision? I see little chance that Rumble wins by decision.

On January 20 2015 19:11 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On January 20 2015 05:07 Nazgul wrote: Just put in a bet on Gustafsson at -252 for $378. It was at -224 for a bit and I would have bet more then. I just kind of feel Gustafsson/Jones/Cormier are at a way higher level than the rest, even if Johson has looked pretty good. The 205 division has sucked ever since Pride died and Jones has just been feasting off of old reputations. Johnson beating lil' Nog is meaningless to me as any of those three would just crush him too. He also embarrassed Phil Davis. If he's not with those 3, he's definitely #4 and #5 is way, way far away. I do think Gus will give him trouble with his movement and length. Johnson is a little too plodding with his footwork and Gus & Jones will exploit the shit out of that. That said, he explodes and hits as hard as anyone at that weight, and Gus is super hittable. I do expect Gus to win a decision or late tko the majority of the time though. Mostly because I don't think Johnsons cardio can be that good with the way he is built. I think in a 3 rounder he could give Gus a close match though with pressure and bombs. I think people forget that right before the Jones fight, broken Shogun gave Gus a hell of a fight. Won the first round in my book, and the 2nd round was relatively close, albeit for sure a Gus round. Wonder if Johnson can continue to not get popped for roids. I'm basically 99% sure he's on roids. I mean he was always a big WW, but he turned into a fucking tank after going to blackzillians. I mean he's one of the biggest LHW's around. He walks at like 230ish ripped as fuck. Built like a tank. He put on like 30 pounds of solid muscle in less than a year, no way that was natty.

shutup sir. =]

On January 22 2015 16:23 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On January 22 2015 14:21 soberstone wrote: Rewatched Jones vs Gus this AM and wow.... Jones was so slow that fight compared to all his other bouts, I know its old news but it really re-enforced to me that he really didn't train for that fight or was going through those personal issues we have been hearing about.... I really think Gus's stock might be a little bit too high right now. I'm like AJ more and more at the current odds as time goes by. If Rumble won, do you think he'd get a finish, or win by decision? I see little chance that Rumble wins by decision.

It would be by tremendous fight altering violence early more likely ending up in a stoppage, but a 2-3 round beating followed by 2-3 rounds of more survival is possible I suppose. I guess the fact that its a 5 rounder really does bode poorly for him.... it's just I really do think Alex will need to be very careful early and AJ really will look better early. Could be a great fight to live bet Gus on if AJ wins the first round very convincingly but you see that Alex has weathered the storm well.

I guess Johnson by TKO at +375 would be the way to go if I were to bet him, but I'll probably just stay away.

I think Bader by decision at +615 is pretty phenomenal.

Well considering what Gus did to Jones early I don't think he s the one that has to be worried for the early match :/
True though being careful and losing the rounds are two different things so


btw i just saw a video of Bellator signing Kimbo Slice whaaat

DraftOps (DO) is basically the same thing as DraftKings (click this link and scroll down to the big picture for my original post about it), but it isn't as good, imo. The thing I hate about DO is that when you go to "My Missions" to view your list of teams, it doesn't say which event is which. All of the events currently have the same name, so I can't tell if one team is for the $10k event, or if it's for the $10 event. Also, they don't have the function available to deposit money yet, so the games they have on their website are all free rolls.

Anyway, I assume DO will continue to do free rolls until they can get more exposure. DraftKings is already a household name, so they didn't have to advertise much at all for their MMA debut. Also, as you can tell by the banner, DO is an official partner of Bellator MMA, but they will also have UFC events to choose from, so that's nice.

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