UFC FN 53: Nelson vs. Story

Date: Saturday, October 4th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 11:10 LP.net / 9:10am PST / 12:10pm EST
Main Card (UFC Fight Pass): 14:00 LP.net / 12pm PST / 3pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Gunnar Nelson (13-0-1) vs. Rick Story (17-8) (Welterweight)
Akira Corassani (12-4) vs. Max Holloway (10-3) (Featherweight)
Ilir Latifi (9-3) vs. Jan Blachowicz (17-3) (Light Heavyweight)
Niklas Backstrom (8-0) vs. Mike Wilkinson (8-1) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Magnus Cedenblad (12-4) vs. Scott Askham (12-0) (Middleweight)
Nico Musoke (12-3) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (21-5-1) (Welterweight)
Dennis Siver (21-9) vs. Charles Rosa (9-0) (Featherweight)
Cathal Pendred (14-2-1) vs. Gasan Umalatov (15-3-1) (Welterweight)
Tor Troeng (16-6-1) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (14-1) (Middleweight)
Mairbek Taisumov (21-5) vs. Marcin Bandel (13-2) (Welterweight)
Zubaira Tukhugov (16-3) vs. Ernest Chavez (7-1) (Featherweight)

Other

- Amir Sadollah was briefly scheduled to face Nico Musoke at the event. However, Sadollah was pulled from the pairing with Musoke in favor of a bout with Yoshihiro Akiyama on September 20, 2014 at UFC Fight Night 52. Musoke will now face Alexander Yakovlev.
- Akira Corassani was expected to face Chan Sung Jung at the event. However, Jung pulled out of the bout citing a strained shoulder and was replaced by Max Holloway.
- Dennis Siver was expected to face Robert Whiteford at the event. However, Whiteford pulled out of the bout, and was replaced by Taylor Lapilus. In turn, the Swedish Mixed Martial Arts Federation deemed Lapilus an unsuitable opponent and Charles Rosa was tabbed to face Siver. (Unsuitable, as in, he faced a bunch of cans in France, a place where ground-and-pound is illegal. Lapilus basically built up his record in MMA while using rules made for babies.)

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First thoughts on this European-friendly card:

• Nelson > Story (Story is aggressive, which will play into Nelson' game.)
• Holloway > Corassani
• Latifi > Blachowicz (Bad match-up for Blachowicz.)
• Backstrom > Wilkinson
• Musoke > Yakovlev
• Siver > Rosa

Not sure about the rest. Seems like a card that will cost people a lot of money unless they actually do a ton of research, which I'm not gonna do.

why is nelson such a big favorite over story? he could barely outwrestle the gigantic can he fought last time, how does he have any hope of taking down story?

gunnar is a great talent, but hes too passive and his wrestling is too bad to make it far in the division right now. he needs to change his approach

Yea, Story at +290 seems ridiculously off.

Gunnar is also very small for WW. IIRC he walks around at 175ish.

It's because nelson is undefeated and finishes most of his opponents, compared to story who loses frequently and goes to decision often.

I'm rooting for story though just because hes from my hometown.

Can't believe that Story is that big of a dog. Gunnar's top game is incredible, but this is not a tailor-made matchup for him. Story is great wrestler, has great power. His sub defense is questionable which does play nicely if Gunnar can smother him, but if he can't, he might be in trouble. We'll see how far along Gunnar has come.

I'm not on his hype train like I am McGregor's.

Holloway is close to a lock, and I know nothing about Wilkinson, but Backstrom has been very impressive offensively.

I agree Story is very inconsistent, but most of his recent loses other than Maia were super close fights that he could of won or at least got a draw.

Story should have a wrestling, size, and power advantage. Gunnar is tiny for WW, and Story is a powerhouse. Gunnar is more technical, consistent, and has a better fight IQ. But him being a 3-1 favorite seems way off.

Story arguably beat Kevin Gastelum recently, who I personally think is much better than Gunnar. A better wrestler and a better striker.

Basically no one has blown Story out of the water other than Maia, who is a huge WW who almost certainly has way better takedowns than Gunnar.

Interesting analysis, now I really want to see this fight.

On September 30 2014 05:57 Stim_Abuser wrote: I agree Story is very inconsistent, but most of his recent loses other than Maia were super close fights that he could of won or at least got a draw. Story should have a wrestling, size, and power advantage. Gunnar is tiny for WW, and Story is a powerhouse. Gunnar is more technical, consistent, and has a better fight IQ. But him being a 3-1 favorite seems way off. Story arguably beat Kevin Gastelum recently, who I personally think is much better than Gunnar. A better wrestler and a better striker. Basically no one has blown Story out of the water other than Maia, who is a huge WW who almost certainly has way better takedowns than Gunnar.

Story is the smaller guy here. He's 5'10 with a 71 inch reach, while Gunnar is 5'11 with a 72 inch reach. Story is probably the stronger of the two.

I don't think Story beat Gastelum, even though it was close.

Story offers Gunnar some problems, I just don't feel like putting any money on him in this fight, probably cuz Story is inconsistent with his gas tank and skills (he has switched between 1 win/1 loss in his last 8 fights).

Bet $100 on Story +277 definitely think he is undervalued. Nelson comes in with a lot of hype but I feel he fights with too little urgency and Story may not let him get away with that.

I believe story is a good bet here also don't think gunnar was that impressive last fight at all

On September 30 2014 12:47 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On September 30 2014 05:57 Stim_Abuser wrote: I agree Story is very inconsistent, but most of his recent loses other than Maia were super close fights that he could of won or at least got a draw. Story should have a wrestling, size, and power advantage. Gunnar is tiny for WW, and Story is a powerhouse. Gunnar is more technical, consistent, and has a better fight IQ. But him being a 3-1 favorite seems way off. Story arguably beat Kevin Gastelum recently, who I personally think is much better than Gunnar. A better wrestler and a better striker. Basically no one has blown Story out of the water other than Maia, who is a huge WW who almost certainly has way better takedowns than Gunnar. Story is the smaller guy here. He's 5'10 with a 71 inch reach, while Gunnar is 5'11 with a 72 inch reach. Story is probably the stronger of the two. I don't think Story beat Gastelum, even though it was close. Story offers Gunnar some problems, I just don't feel like putting any money on him in this fight, probably cuz Story is inconsistent with his gas tank and skills (he has switched between 1 win/1 loss in his last 8 fights).

Height =/= size.

It's pretty well known Nelson walks around at 178-180 pounds. That's the size of most UFC LW's. Actually his coaches have said he could easily make LW. Most WW's these days are 190-200 pounds, including Rick Story. Gunnar might be an inch taller, much Story is built like a tank.

I mean Gunnar hardly looks bigger than McGregor.



I think Gunnar is very talented, but I don't think he's big enough for 170. I guess we'll see though, as Story is probably one of the strongest most powerful WW's in the UFC.

Man, that Macdonald vs Saffedeine fight is this weekend, and I def. think it is a dog or pass fight where the odds are at now (Mac at -500, Saf +400). I really think it's not as great of a matchup for Rory as the odds seem to show. I do think he'll win because his cardio is outstanding and its a 5 rounder, but if Saf lands good low kicks early without getting taken down, it could be very close.

So one reason I've come up with as to why Gunnar is such a big favorite is that it's a 5 round fight and Story tends to fade by the 3rd round lately. At least against Gastelum & Pyle. Though both of those fights were wars which I don't think this one will be so who knows.

There's a cut above Story's left eye. Dunno how recent it is.

On October 01 2014 11:09 Stim_Abuser wrote: So one reason I've come up with as to why Gunnar is such a big favorite is that it's a 5 round fight and Story tends to fade by the 3rd round lately. At least against Gastelum & Pyle. Though both of those fights were wars which I don't think this one will be so who knows.

Good point. For whatever reason I was thinking about this as a 3 rounder. The 5 round aspect does favor Gunnar although I still think the odds are a bit wide. Won't be touching this tho. The Saffediene line at +450 on some sites is insanely juicy tho IMO.

I think the most common idea is that Story is the kind of guy that will sooner or later fail on his fight IQ and go for a take down, much like that annoying guy did vs Mackenzie or whatever his name is (guillotine dude) in the lightweight season of TUF.

For my part I'm not happy with the odds on Gunni considering how he was kind of rocked against Santiago. Don't think his gas tank looked great in that fight and the ones after that has been to short/uneventful to judge his cardo.

Not gonna bet story either, dude doesn't seem very solid when it comes to the mental parts of the game. Thinking Gunni sub at evens might be ok, not sure though.

Other then that I think Holloway KO might be a decent prob even though odds aren't great and he's on somewhat short notice. I just feel like I should fade Akira in most match ups. He's a tough guy with decent cardio and everything, but he's not very good at any area and tends to get finished a lot.

I have the KO prop om Bäckström and under 1.5. I think the other guy is overmatched and the odds on KO is much better then sub. Bäckströms grappling gets a lot of praise but he gets a lot of KO's too.

I think Latifi should win, but I feel lost from a capping perspective. The Polish guy might be completely over matched or just good enough to hang in there and maybe get a decision or even a late finish. Might live bet though, got some kind of plan.

I think Cedenblad blows out Askham in the first, and I have bets on that and Cedenblad by sub. If it somehow goes past the first 1.5 I'll live bet Askham I think.

Think Mairbek Taisumov vs. Marcin Bandel might be a fun fight.

Might fade Musoke due to not being at Alliance anymore, not sure though, most people think the other guy might not be super good either.

Also really lost on Tor, dude's support to be super smart but he does weird things in fights.

I know it isnt a title fight but







just cant wait to post it

$200 free roll: https://www.kountermove.com/join/3301...ht-54-macdonald-vs-saffiedine-T-free/

$150 free roll: https://www.kountermove.com/join/3302...ht-54-macdonald-vs-saffiedine-T-free/

This is going to be my first live UFC event and even though it lacks big names Im super excited that it has so many swedes on it.

Got 30$ on Story and a 10$ parlay on all swedes and one 10$ parlay with all swedes except Akira.

Take some pictures, if you can. Outside of the venue, inside of the venue, fighter pics, etc.

If you have anything worth sharing from the event, you could always post about it in the blog section.

Prelims: http://ifirstrowus.eu/watch/287650/1/...fc-fight-night-53:-preliminaries.html

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Nice TKO by Tukhugov to open up the card.

Nice TKO by Taisumov.

Good first couple of fights. Chechnya guys are fucking beasts. Both looked really good.

Troeng vs. Jotko = zZzZzZz

Troeng looks like crap.

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A clear 30-27 for Siver, but Rosa is really good. I can't wait to see him against some lower ranked opponents.

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Main card: http://ifirstrowus.eu/watch/287661/1/...-fight-night-53:-nelson-vs-story.html

WOW!

Welcome back to the UFC, Mike Wilkinson!

Backstrom walked up to Wilkinson and Dan Hardy right before the post-fight interview started and said into the microphone, "that's fucked up," then walked away.

The Swedish crowd is booing Wilkinson for some reason, even though he won via KO.

This card has been absolutely superb. Besides the Troeng fight, a juicy mix of back and forth duels, crushing finishes, shocking upsets, top-notch grappling exchanges, crushing KO's.

A great ode to the notion that its not about the names on the card but the fights that are produced.

Easy paycheck for Max. He knew what he was getting into when he took this short notice fight.

On October 04 2014 14:55 PuertoRican wrote: Easy paycheck for Max. He knew what he was getting into when he took this short notice fight.

He has it all. I see a rematch with Conor McGregor for the belt in 2-4 years.

Rick won first

Round 1: not sure, but Story landed more than double the strikes. So, I guess Story? Nelson seemed more aggressive
Round 2: Story (Gunnar isn't as aggressive anymore.)
Round 2: Story (Gunnar slowed down during the 2nd half of the round.)

Judges better have Rick winning so far

Should be story 30-27 so far.

Hope story's cardio holds up , I don't even have money on this

Ohhhhhh shit hahahaj knock down

Story 3-0 (rounds 2, 3, 4)

Not sure who won round 1.

Overrated as suspected

lol coner telling nelson "he knows he is losing the decision"?! dafuq

4-0 story.

Pretty clear, as we all thought, the odds on story vs gunnar were ridiculous.

Also, Gunnar is a tough son of a bitch.

Story 4-0 (rounds 2, 3, 4, 5)

Not sure who won round 1.

Round 4 and 5 were one-sided by Story.

ROFL 48:47 Nelson vs 50:44 Story... ohh boy...

Lol biased judge omg

wait I zoned out and suddenly heard split decision lol

Stupid European judge giving Nelson 3 of the rounds... wtf? At worst, it was 2 rounds to Nelson.

In USA, this would've been Rick Story 4-1 or 5-0.

On October 04 2014 15:51 Nazgul wrote: wait I zoned out and suddenly heard split decision lol

Rick Story def. Gunnar Nelson Decision (split) (47-48, 49-46, 50-44)

Biased judge...

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UFC in Canada starts in 2 hours.

So that fight in a nutshell.

Black eye on Cavanough's coaching, awful cornering advice, no implementation of a jab whatsoever for Nelson.

On the Story side, AMAZING gameplan, the MMA Lab clearly worked wonders in teaching him to be aggressive in the right spots without being open for the blast double.

Amazing performance by story, amazing amount of holes in Nelson's game.

We all knew this line was too wide and it showed.

the line was so dumb non of this was surprising and we didn't see any new skills by either guy just standard stuff. wish I bet more but the Overeem bet has taken the confidence out of me

On October 04 2014 16:02 Nazgul wrote: the line was so dumb non of this was surprising and we didn't see any new skills by either guy just standard stuff. wish I bet more but the Overeem bet has taken the confidence out of me

The best thing to do with Overeem is just not bet him. It's hard, but it's something you have to do, imo. (I haven't bet his last two fights.)

When he gets into the cage, I just hope he wins and avoids as much damage as possible.

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Copy/paste from another website:

Jim Bergman had Gunnar Nelson winning the fight; he gave him R1, R2, and R3. Mark Collett had Story 49-46, giving Gunnar R1. Paul Sutherland: 50-44 Story, with a 10-8 R4.

Apparently he's some local judge from Gothenburg with his own club. Hopefully first and last time we ever see him involved in UFC.

On October 04 2014 14:14 PuertoRican wrote: WOW! Welcome back to the UFC, Mike Wilkinson! Backstrom walked up to Wilkinson and Dan Hardy right before the post-fight interview started and said into the microphone, "that's fucked up," then walked away. The Swedish crowd is booing Wilkinson for some reason, even though he won via KO.

I missed this because I fast forwarded all the interviews etc. What the hell did he mean by that o-O? Seems like an incredibly random thing to say, although I guess he did just get his brain pretty rumbled.

On October 06 2014 21:56 TianYuan wrote: Show nested quote + On October 04 2014 14:14 PuertoRican wrote: WOW! Welcome back to the UFC, Mike Wilkinson! Backstrom walked up to Wilkinson and Dan Hardy right before the post-fight interview started and said into the microphone, "that's fucked up," then walked away. The Swedish crowd is booing Wilkinson for some reason, even though he won via KO. I missed this because I fast forwarded all the interviews etc. What the hell did he mean by that o-O? Seems like an incredibly random thing to say, although I guess he did just get his brain pretty rumbled.

No idea what he meant by it. Backstrom probably felt like a Starcraft 1 pro gamer who just got 6-pooled in WCG by a random foreigner. He was probably just pissed and needed to let some steam off.

I was surprised more by the crowd that was booing Wilkinson. It seemed like, "how dare you beat our countryman!" If it was Gustafsson who got knocked out in Sweden, his opponent probably wouldn't have made it home alive.

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Translated by someone on Sherdog:

Q: Then afterwards, when... [Wilkinson] was extremely exited and ran around, and then there was the interview. We saw you there on your stool, you seemed totally unsympathetic [to the stoppage] and walked up and said "That's fucked up!"... what are your thoughts about that?

A:Yeah... after you get knocked out, well... understandably, you're not the sharpest tool in the shed. I was... well, totally convinced that I had been robbed. Ehm... of course afterwards I realized how ridiculous I had been... But... well, yeah, I'm a warrior, and I'll keep fighting until im unable to continue. This time I was unable, but I couldn't understand it at the time... It's really good that there's a referee in there to tell you when it's over

Q: What were your feelings then, right after the stoppage?

A: Well, first anger, shock... I absolutely do not have any ill feelings towards [Wilkinson], he's a great guy. I met him and talked for a bit after the fight, and he's a really great guy, which is something I never really had any doubts about. This is what happens in this sport, and I wish him the best of luck in the future but [just after the stoppage] I wasn't really the sharpest tool in the shed.

That's a pretty great response, understandably confused after that punch hehe

And swedish sports fans can be idiots... we have a decent amount of hooligan culture in soccer etc so I wouldnt assume MMA fans are any better

Story had a broken ankle since round two lol.