I'm thinking about betting big on this parlay:
Silva ITD + Souza ITD @ +100
what you guys think about it ? Jacare's been a killer lately, don't think Carmont will survive much time
and Erick Silva always go for the kill, especially vs a huge underdog, don't know anything about Sato tho
Dont listen to anything I say
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 13 2014 10:42. Posts 13051
On February 13 2014 09:12 drone666 wrote:
I'm thinking about betting big on this parlay:
Silva ITD + Souza ITD @ +100
what you guys think about it ? Jacare's been a killer lately, don't think Carmont will survive much time
and Erick Silva always go for the kill, especially vs a huge underdog, don't know anything about Sato tho
I think Jacare will win, but "NOT Jacare ITD" at +140 is what I liked for that fight.
Carmont is good at making his opponents fight his type of fight, and slows the fight down a bit overall. I'm expecting Carmont to stay on the outside and use his long kicks like he has in the past. He obviously won't fight the same way as he did in his last fight, as he doesn't want to risk getting clipped by Jacare's wild punches that have a lot of power behind them.
Put small bets on Proctor and Tumenov. Tumenov I might bet more on but not sure.
Put a medium sized bet on Tukhugov before Unibet took down the line. I got him at 2.45 which is much better then the american sites so I think they just fucked up.
Also have ~150 USD on Mousasi at 3.0. Still think it's a pick'em fight.
Then I have a small parlay on Souza, Tumenov, Y Alacantara, Proctor, Oliviera and Tuk.
Also have a bet on Maia at 3.3 over Rory later this spring. I think Rory probably wins a dec but I don't think he'll win often enough to warrant those odds.
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 13 2014 20:22. Posts 13051
On February 13 2014 17:53 DustySwedeDude wrote:
Also have ~150 USD on Mousasi at 3.0. Still think it's a pick'em fight.
Why not add some money to Mousasi's decision line at +490? It makes a lot of sense to bet it, since you're confident in him.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 13 2014 23:18. Posts 13051
An interesting website that breaks down fights for you and gives you statistics to why it thinks a certain fighter will win a fight: http://cagerank.com
On February 13 2014 22:18 PuertoRican wrote:
An interesting website that breaks down fights for you and gives you statistics to why it thinks a certain fighter will win a fight: http://cagerank.com
On February 13 2014 22:18 PuertoRican wrote:
An interesting website that breaks down fights for you and gives you statistics to why it thinks a certain fighter will win a fight: http://cagerank.com
Wasn't that site supposed to be somewhat of a funny/joke kinda thing?
No idea.
I mean, I would personally never use it as a deciding factor for when I place my bets, but I just thought some of the stats that it gives is interesting.
In case any of the fish on LP.net aren't clear, DO NOT use cagerank.com as the deciding factor when you place your bets, just look at some of the stats it gives and then compare what is bullshit with the knowledge that you already have in your head.
Also don't wanna bet Moose by dec, I think he might win by KO at least some % of the time in a 5 round fight.
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 14 2014 14:38. Posts 13051
* Blanco was 147.9 on his first attempt, but made weight on his second try.
This weigh-in started 6 hours earlier than normal, which means the fighters will have at least 30 hours of recovery, which is more than usual. People who rehydrate a lot of weight after the weigh-ins will "possibly" be a little fresher than usual come fight night.
On February 14 2014 06:02 DustySwedeDude wrote:
All the props wasn't up when I did my bets.
Also don't wanna bet Moose by dec, I think he might win by KO at least some % of the time in a 5 round fight.
I'd be surprised if Mousasi wins by KO/TKO here, as Machida will always be moving around and be the faster of the two guys. KO/TKO`ing a fast counter striker who isn't a volume striker is a big task.
The best play here would be the Over 3.5 rounds, which I mentioned a couple weeks ago when it was at -155. If the fight did get finished via strikes, I think it would be Machida hitting a head kick or a body kick to stun Mousasi and get a TKO, but Mousasi hasn't been knocked out before, so I'm assuming he can survive in this fight.
If you think Mousasi will win, there's no way you can possibly think that he'd win via KO/TKO more than 50% of the time versus Machida. If these two guys fought 100 times, Mousasi's share of wins would mostly be via decision imo.
Anyway, gL~
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 14/02/2014 15:15
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 14 2014 22:12. Posts 13051
Machida - more UFC experience, tougher experience, via UD
Souza - is on another level, via finish R3
Silva - via TKO R1
Andrade - lack of knowledge of Musoke
Oliveira - via sub
Marcello - not sure, crazy fight, I would lose money if I bet here
Jorge - he's really big, Damm is small has a hard time losing weight, Jorge is much bigger, Jorge strongest on the ground, win via TKO/UD
Trinaldo - ever since he went to Curitiba, he's less aggressive and gases out, he's not improving, I only saw Ronson last fight, via UD
Alcantara - one step above of Reis, via TKO/Sub R1
Blanco - has the wrestling, via UD
Alcantara - via experience
Tuhugov - Andrade fought nobodies, never trained in academy, trained in middle of streets with friends, Tuhugov is bigger, Andrade has 9 days notice, was at 170, had to cut alot of weight, has no structure on how to lose weight, he will be really weak, Andrade is a white belt in BJJ, will lose via TKO R1
Put ~70USD om Musoke after watching the weight ins. Not knowing a ton about either fighter but with 2.1 odds and Musoke coming from a better camp and as far as I can tell having a slightly more impressive record I'm ok with that bet.
Edit: props got up now so got a small bet on Mousasi by dec for 15USD or so.
Last edit: 15/02/2014 14:54
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 15 2014 15:00. Posts 13051
Final picks:
• Machida > Mousasi (Over 3.5 rounds at -155 with a small hedge of Machida by KO/TKO at +325 or Machida ITD at +250. Also, I think there's value of this fight going to a draw at +10500, and all you have to do is lay $1 to get a nice return)
• Souza > Carmont ("NOT Jacare inside the distance" at +140)
• Silva > Sato (Sato is currently at +850. I've never seen him fight, but adding 2-3 bucks on him is okay I guess if you want to gamble)
• Andrade > Musoke (Andrade's ML at -125, and a smaller bet on "Andrade wins by decision" at +474)
• Oliveira > Ogle (I think Over 1.5 rounds at -125 and "Fight starts Round 3" at +116 have value, but I'm not touching this fight)
• Proctor > Marcello (Marcello points handicap +3½ at +120)
• Jorge > Damm (Jorge's ML at -120)
• Ronson > Trinaldo (Ronson points handicap +3½ at -105)
• Alcantara > Reis
• Arantes > Blanco (After re-watching tape on both guys and seeing their weigh-in, I think that Arantes will win and Blanco's wrestling won't be as big of a factor as I initially thought. Either way, I think the best play is "Fight goes the Distance" at -135," and if you want to gamble a little bit more, Arantes' ML is/was at +105)
• Tumenov > Alcantara (I missed the -145 ML, so either "Fight doesn't go the distance" at -160, or Tumenov's KO/TKO prop at +150)
• Tuhugov > Andrade (Tuhugov's ML at -105)
Another night where I have inadvertently left it up to one fighter. If Iuri Alcanatra wins we're having an okay night. I haven't touched Machida vs Mousasi. Other than the fight going over 3.5. Blanco/Arantes I haven't touched. Damm Jorge haven't touched. I'm really big on Iuri, Souza, Trinaldo, Proctor, and Silva (only in parlays). If they manage to win its a great night. GL LP.
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 15 2014 17:25. Posts 13051
Line movement on fight day for the following:
Jesse Ronson: +165 to +125
Iuri Alcantara: -260'ish to -185
Felipe Arantes: +105 to -110 (Blanco is now at +100)
Zubair Tuhugov: -105 to -115
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 15 2014 19:33. Posts 13051
I'm watching via UFC Fight Pass, but some European guy posted this on Sherdog, which apparently works for others:
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Originally Posted by Timurd123 View Post
Hey guys
anyone that doesnt have fight pass can simply get the Hola add on to your google chrome, change your country to nigeria or something like that and go to the official ufc youtube page for the event
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Great judging in the first fight. I saw it about the same for Tukhugov.
