$2/5 very hard spot, 300bbs deep - Page 2

So he is so bad that he is so ridiculously imbalanced that you have to fold 3rd nuts on the river but good enough to exploit you unless you call with QTs oop 300bbs deep to a 3bet?, that makes no sense.

This is probably a bad call preflop and a trivial river call and the really interesting things in these hands is potential lines and sizings before his river raise

The issue I see is this: my bet sizing is representing such a high-strength hand (and maybe the bet-sizing tell is my huge mistake here), the fact that the hand I hold is the 3rd nuts is irrelevant. At the point where he jams, there is nothing in his range that he is betting for value that I beat, with the possible exception of the jack-high flush, but even that I don't think so. He knows I have a flush, and a call here on my part is simply a bluff catch. Also, I didn't say that I had to fold 3rd nuts, I made the call in fact. I bluff caught, and was wrong.

Ok I'll bite.

The fact that u hold the 3rd nuts is quite relevant, u block 2 spades, and there is a non-zero chance that he would value-jam the Q high flush here, aswell as u block AQss KQss ATss, KTss, which are possible hands that value-jam against u. The way the hand played out, you should most likely be value-betting AK+ on the river (maybe not for full pot, I would probably be betting about 120 on turn with most of my betting range, and around 3/4 pot on river with most of my range, but this is all debatable, and it is possible you would want different bet sizings.)

In my opinion it is a mistake for him to be checking back ever with AKss, or any Kxss. I think that in his shoes, that is one of the hands he wants to bet nearly every time, since it can withstand any amount of pressure happily, as well as get value (no flushdraw will fold to a flop bet). Some people may disagree here, and think that it is a good hand to check back with since you are not worried about any turn cards, and can happily call down on blanks. If I am villain, I am occasionally checking a hand like AKo, aswell as occasionally a Axss (still betting these most of the time), but never this hand.

In this scenario, if he is checking back hands so strong as this, he is weakening his betting range, which in the future will make it more inciting for you to attack his c-bets in similar scenarios in the future (although it is difficult to know how often he will make a play like this, so you cannot necessarily just go insane, but it is something to keep in ur mind)

it will also make it less inticing for you to be bluffing in this same spot, or value betting super thinly.

With the current reads and history previous to this hand, I am assuming that most of his range is TT - AK, occasionally high card 1 spade hadns (AQ1spade, AJ1spade JT1spade) Occasionally I expect a player to show up with random Kx, low flushes, etc. I expect the majority of his range to be QQ-JJ or 1 pair hands. (ur read could be very different after he calls with 150, like I said I would have bet smaller, if u think he is not peeling the turn very light, ur valuebetting/bluffing range should change, but also should change on the turn if u think he is folding too much.) Given these basic tenents, I think you can value bet AK+, aswell as bluff an INSANE amount. there is a very high chance that I am betting turn/river here with hands like 22-88 1 spade, any gutshot QT QJ JT, especially with a spade, AQ1spade AJ1spade etc. I don't know the math or whatever but this is what works for me.

He is certainly making money when he has a hand here better than 1pair, but since I think he has so much 1 pair, i am constructing my range to put him in a difficult scenario with that hand.

Back to ur current hand. If u are value betting as thinly as I believed u were supposed to be here, then it is kind of hilarious to even consider folding this hand, since u are betting this spot so often and this hand is basically in like the top 1-3% of ur range, aswell as having blockers to his value range.

Now this spot changes MASSIVELY based on player tendencies. Like I said since he checks back hands as strong as this often, u must also alter ur ranges, check more turns to him, bluff less in this spot, play more aggressively against his flop bets in spots like this etc.

all of this said, if u have a read that hes not bluffing and not value betting worse, its fucking live poker so u can fold if that's what u think. just know that if u have to fold this hand, ur both probably making some big mistakes during this hand or at least 1 of you is.

peace

great post, thank you!

ur bet sizings are so stoopid

Would you be so kind to elaborate?

I am surprised that no one has mentioned this, but if the other good player has position on you at the table and you are deep, moving is massively +EV.

As far as deciding whether to call or not, I think the relevant question to deal with is whether villain is going to bluff here and whether he is going to raise worse for value. These things will also be somewhat correlated since they depend on his perception of your range in this spot, given the action.

As for bet sizing, I am in favor of 2/3ish to 3/4 bet turn and overbet river.

I also think calling pre is a mistake. It's hard to win with worse, it's hard to get paid the most (and at all) if you hit, and it's hard to not be forced to pay too much to get the showdown when the opponent wants you to. Given similar skill level, this spot is a huge loser.