he might have missed flush draw or something like Aj, he might also read u for missed draws & try to buy the pot, so there is a good chance he's shoving with bananas here~
as for the legitimate hand, AA - JJ seems not likely, coz those hands would love to call, AT, KT, QT, JT, QJ, 67 are all possible, hero beaten by 67, QJ & AT but tie with KT, and beat QT and JT.
67 & QJ provide 16 comb each. AT, QT, JT 4 combo each, KT 3 combo, hero beaten by 36 combo and beat 8 combo which is 4.5 to 1.
the formula would be something like this:
x = % Villain was bluffing
33.85 = pot size before hero call
0.22222 = 1/4.5
33.85x + 33.85(0.222)(1-x) = 16.5
33.85x +7.51-7.51x = 16.5
26.34x = 8.99
x = 0.341 or 34.1%
therefore, if villain shoving with bananas more then 34.1% of the time, we will call~ |
Looking back though I think it was a bad call. Also should of gone $6 on river.
United States. Apr 29 2012 17:07. Posts 7471
