basically the flop action doesn't make sense. okay your raise was good, then he min-raises you, you min-raise him back, he min-raises you AGAIN and you shove? what do you expect him to play this way that he'd call a shove and you'd be ahead of or flipping with? you already said AA and KK is unlikely, good. QQ JJ? AT JT? a flush draw? like what, you block the nut flush draw with the ace of diamonds, would he be in this spot with like KQ of diamonds? he NEVER has a pair and flush draw here, and he NEVER has a straight and flush draw here, you block A4 A5 of diamonds, he wouldn't be here with 45 of diamonds, he raised early position and then called your 3-bet before he knew if anyone else would be in the pot
you can't just go with aces like this out of position unless you have 3 of them. min-raising is a very internety lure. you shouldn't min-raise him back unless you are prepared to muck when he min-raises you AGAIN because you're fucked. min-raising him a second time on the flop is unnecessary if you're going to shove like this, you already protected your hand, 4betting flop is playing too fast. you have backdoor diamonds and a backdoor straight and the first time he min-raises you it's possible you're still ahead (like if happyda9 thought you thought bufas-bufas's probe bet was weak so he raised you thinking you were weak) so you can call.
for actual examples of being fucked against min-raises there's Esfandiari and Trickett the last hand of one drop 2012, and there's a pre-flop example I can't remember from some tournament like 3 handed there was like a 6-bet all-in with a raggy ace and the other guy had some pair, the guy who shoved was asian american or canadian iirc I can't remember it exactly, maybe someone else does
it's possible to even fold to his 3-bet on the flop but you have to have wicked sense for that because there will be similar spots where you're ahead. this flop is so blank there's only one hand you're behind so ask yourself about the player, he was in early position, would he 3-bet and 5-bet me on the flop given that the range of hands that's ahead of you is 1 hand? does he think i'm a nit? does he think i'm a station? i was the SB he should suspect i'm strong right? he's minraising so he almost knows he's getting called. it's not like the flop is QT9 or something. i'm not recommending folding but it's something to think about more because you can't just go all-in any flop OOP with aces in a 3way pot.
if you had called and seen this turn (the bet was only $3.40 34bb instead of $17.35 after you shoved), you could have reevaluated. you'd be a 3-1 dog to find an ace or flush on river. that's a LOT better and the third diamond will slow him down since you could have AK in diamonds. and if he didn't slow down you could fold turn. also there are other turns that are good for you like any overcard or diamond. 4 or 5 of diamonds. like if you just called his 3-bet on flop you would pay $3.40 and then on this flop the action should be slower and this river would have been foldable. also some turns will be easy folds and some rivers will be jackpots.
there is no way to price them out of having a set. it's a 3-way pot and if one of them has a pocket pair he has a 12% chance to flop a set. if they fold when they miss and stack you when they hit (which is a model, not reality) and the limiting factor is your stack because bufas-bufas has you covered which is 269bb, you would have to raise over 32bb (actually more because the cutoff, who actually flopped a set, also has 185bb and the same chance to flop a set if he has a pair in the hole) and you can't play that way obviously, i mean it would make more sense to just shove pre and hope the guy in early position has kings haha
raising more pre should narrow their range yes, but this will make it more likely someone has a set when the flop action happens like this. 88-QQ LOVE to flat 3-bets pre especially this deep oh my god. for all you know bufas-bufas folded jacks. but also, the bigger the pot is preflop, the less room you have to maneuver and play poker after the flop, so you will feel more committed to get your money in even when you're behind and only getting called when you're dead like in this hand, and you want to avoid that
I think your flop raise is good because it's a 3-way pot and you don't want someone to draw for free, even though there are lots of rivers where you won't have the best hand, and you need information
your 3-bet pre should be bigger yes because you have the best hand but the worst position. but there's more to poker than the first mistake, like in chess if you move a pawn 1 space instead of 2 you can't just fold or all-in by throwing your king at the other guy's eye, you have to keep playing from the situation you're in now, don't compound a miniscule error by making a big mistake later
wrote this shit but deleted so wrote it again, also I probably suck but whatever |
(three of a kind, Tens)
