Hangover thoughts

have thought about this since this kinda makes a lot of sense in the "bad luck" department. my timing in poker and life is prob one of the worst

the sample will never be big enough

Getting sucked out on a big stack isn't even'd out by sucking out on a short stack. This is like losing $10,000 in cash and then the next day you find a quarter on the ground and saying it evens out because 1 day you lost money and 1 day you found money.

On August 21 2010 08:02 blackjacki2 wrote: Getting sucked out on a big stack isn't even'd out by sucking out on a short stack.

In terms of expected value it is. That's the whole point.
You flip a coin for $100. You flip it again for $1. Let's assume you won once and lost once and you flipped tails once and heads once. In terms of probability, everything is correct. You are not even though .

On August 21 2010 08:02 blackjacki2 wrote: This is like losing $10,000 in cash and then the next day you find a quarter on the ground and saying it evens out because 1 day you lost money and 1 day you found money.

This example is absolutely improper. I'm talking about mathematics and the situation above has nothing to do with it.

1 sample is flipping for $1 and another is flipping for $100.

over time you will be even at both $100 and $1 flips.
at any given period you may be ahead in $1 and behind in $100 flips or vice-versa.

Yes, byrnesam, you are partially right. This doesn't matter much though, because the whole idea is you might not be unlucky because of a bad run of cards, but due to the fact that you were lucky/unlucky in the wrong spots. The same can refer to flipping a coin.
I'm not trying to build a theorem here, I'm talking about real-life stuff.

i m 150 bis under ev so fu

Yeah, basically you wont ever have a sample big enough to the point where the variance will even out.

You just gotta get as big of a sample as you can and hope you run g00t in the right spots.

Thats why half the "all time tournament winnings" list contains a whole load of players who have won 1 tourney and nothing else.

no its not like that. imo it's more like you lost 200 bb pot AA vs QQ so u had about 160 bb equity, but you lost 100 bb instead so the poker gods owe you 260 bbs (or 160? which would be winning same spot with qq). but my point was that you are owed money, not winning a hand in whatever size of the pot

ummm just to clarify...you think that getting it in for 20 bb QQ vs AA ten times and then getting it in 200 bb AA vs QQ ten times will result in a break even EV?

On August 21 2010 16:00 Zep wrote: ummm just to clarify...you think that getting it in for 20 bb QQ vs AA ten times and then getting it in 200 bb AA vs QQ ten times will result in a break even EV?

Yeah..well he did say he was hung over.

Oops, what am I talking about LOL.

My bad, sorry.