UFC 83 picks + thoughts

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KeanuReaver United States. Apr 09 2008 02:36. Posts 2022

Compared to past and future UFC cards, this event is pretty lousy. Still, there are some pretty interesting fights.

GSP vs Matt Serra:

While GSP should be the favorite here and their first fight was something of a fluke, there's no denying serra is a very difficult matchup for GSP. GSP wins his fights because of his tremendous wrestling, something he can't take advantage of vs serra because of how great serra is all around on the ground. GSP is going to have to be very patient and look to pick serra apart from distance, taking advantage of serra's height...this just isn't the kind of guy GSP should look to run over. For serra, he'll need to keep the distance close to negate any striking advantage GSP has, and look to setup any takedowns he can muster. If serra can get GSP respecting his hands enough he should be able to get a takedown or two. Even though GSP probably wins, if you can get serra at +380 or better that would be a great bet.

Rich Franklin vs Travis Lutter:

This is a matchup that Rich usually dominates. he has superior wrestling and athleticism than lutter with a huge advantage in the striking dept. I think Rich wins this fight 9 times out of 10 or more so even though he's sitting at -350 on most sites i think it is a good bet. For Lutter, somehow he's going to need to get rich on the ground, I don't think it happens in the clinch and if he tries to strike with rich he's going to be KO'd so I think his best bet may be to shoot in and try to switch through Rich's sprawl or even just pull a high guard or pull guard and look for a sweep. Even then, Rich has a good ground game so getting top position isn't going to give him the win...he's going to need to fight the perfect fight and really concentrate on winning rounds rather than risking losing position by forcing a sub.

Kalib Starnes vs Nate Quarry:

I'm not too sure why, but it looks like Kalib is a pretty big dog in this fight. I don't know if I missed the boat on what Nate is capable of but this fight seems very close to me and I'm inclined to give a slight edge to Kalib. Nate has a slight advantage with strikes and wrestling but I think Kalib's edge on the ground is pretty big...mix that in with the fact that Nate is very weak with his standup defense and I think it should be relatively easy for Kalib to set up his takedowns with some good striking. Nate has heavy hands though so if Kalib starts to struggle to get the fight on the ground he'll be in a whole lot of trouble. Another big factor in this fight is the fact that Nate has fought one single time in the past 2 1/2 years...potential cage rust makes me like Kalib even more. If the odds were even on this fight I'd probably recommend staying away but right now Kalib is over +200 on every site (with his highest being +271 on pinnacle) so i think this should be an autobet.

Charles McCarthy vs Michael Bisping:

Bisping was one of the most overhyped fighters in the UFC but after his controversial win over Hammill and loss to evans it's died down quite a bit. on the other hand McCarthy really hasn't ever done anything and while his ground game is good, he isn't solid at all in other facets. Bisping is superior to McCarthy in pretty much every way and will likely TKO him so even though I don't like putting money on overhyped unproven fighters this just isn't a fight bisping is going to lose very often at all. If you can somehow find Bisping better than -300 then it's probably a pretty good bet.

Mark Bocek vs Mac Danzig:

I don't know much about Bocek but Danzig is a very solid all around fighter. It seems likely to me that Bocek is going to try to shoot in or takedown mac down, fail, and probably end up TKO'd or subbed for his troubles. Danzig is also coming into this fight as an overwhelming favorite so I'd avoid putting money on him, if you have some reason to think Bocek has a good chance in this fight then he's probably a good bet just based on the odds you'll be getting.

That's it for the main card fights, next up is the undercard guys which I don't have any odds for so I'll go strictly on how I think the outcome will be.

Joe Doerkson vs Jason MacDonald:

Why this is an undercard fight I have no idea at all. These two guys are very similar to eachother in how they like to fight and I expect it to be a war on the ground. Because MacDonald is the stronger of the two, I expect him to find himself in top position more often than not so I give the edge to him but Doerkson is more than capable off of his back and can easily give MacDonald fits, if not sub him. This fight may come down to who can control the standup, in which case again I give a slight edge to the taller and stronger MacDonald.

Jason Day vs Alan Belcher:

I don't know who Jason Day is, apparently this is his first profession mma fight? I don't know where he comes from so I can't really comment on how I see the fight going down except I don't recognize the name from any major bjj or grappling events. Alan belcher isn't really the type to take advantage of that though, so all I can really say is Belcher probably wins because of experience alone.

Ed Herman vs Demian Maia:

Another fight that should be on the main card. Maia happens to be one of the top 10 best bjj practitioners in the world, regardless of weight class, so at 185 unless your name happens to be Ronaldo de Souza if you're on the ground with maia, whether you're on top or he's on top, you're in some trouble. Herman's advantage in wrestling is going to be both a good and bad thing. Good because he has the tools to keep Maia from taking the fight to the ground but bad because it will be easy for him to get sucked into a ground fight if Maia pulls guard. For herman, the more boring he can make this fight the better. If I were his trainer I'd have him watch andrei vs werdum over and over again so he knows to do everything he possibly can to keep maia from getting close even if that means running halfway across the cage to avoid him. If Maia shows competence with his striking it's going to be an ugly night for Herman. Those that know me know what I'm going to pick, Maia by sub rd 1.

Rich Clementi vs Sam Stout:

This should be a very fun fight. Stout has the clear advantage in standup, especially where technique is concerned while Clementi has the clear advantage on the ground. As Stout hasn't shown me a great TD defense I give the edge to Clementi but if Stout is game on the ground and can keep himself from being subbed this could end up being the fight of the night.

Brad Morris vs Cain Velasquez:

I don't really know either of these two guys but because of his name I'm going to pick Cain by chokeslam from hell. Especially cause he's repping AZ :D!

Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs Jonathon Goulet:

Hironaka has had a rough start to his UFC career due mostly to two of his first 3 fights being against legit top 5 170 pounders in alves and fitch but this should be a good fight for him to begin establishing his place in the UFC WW division. Goulet is a very solid all around fighter with a lot of experience but I feel like Hironaka has a much better ground game and is the superior athlete. Look for a solid decision win from Hironaka, possibly a sub if goulet makes a bad mistake.

The event really lacks a strong main card, GSP vs serra is going to be fun but other than that I really don't see much. In fact, I would bump Kalib vs nate, McCarthy vs Bisping, and Bocek vs Danzig all to the Undercard and move Maia vs Herman, Doerkson vs MacDonald, and either Hironaka vs Goulet or Clementi vs Stout all to the main card. In any case, it could very easily turn into a great event so I'll be watching it.

0 votes

and the endurance required for MMA, which has actions like punching and kicking bone and muscle with 1000-2500 PSI. - Taco

Fox . Apr 09 2008 08:02. Posts 3110

i agree with a lot here.

Joe Doerkson vs Jason MacDonald

I think jason has horrible standup his fight against okami he couldn't really do anything standing and okami was pounding him in the standup... yes okami.

but i do think it goes the way you said it with jason winning.

KeanuReaver United States. Apr 09 2008 08:03. Posts 2022

we should discuss more in depth on msn
so get on you fag

and the endurance required for MMA, which has actions like punching and kicking bone and muscle with 1000-2500 PSI. - Taco

Nazgul This user is a quality poster

Netherlands. Apr 09 2008 08:38. Posts 7080

I like a GSP bet at -450 the guy is more motivated than ever and Serra is tiny

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo

Fox . Apr 09 2008 11:12. Posts 3110

yeah gsp looked angry in the countdown which is awesome.

I really can't wait to see this fight.

but in a way i want it over cuz then we can focus our convos on BJ VS SHERK

Funktion Australia. Apr 09 2008 13:05. Posts 1638

On April 09 2008 10:12 Fox wrote:
but in a way i want it over cuz then we can focus our convos on BJ VS SHERK