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300 Buyins in 31 days at 50plo prop bet???

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Joeingram1   United States. Jun 27 2014 08:26. Posts 943
I was coming on here to reply to comments left on my last blog where I said Hello but after reading Defrag's comment I was inspired to write something. I've said a few different times over the years that I would like to start blogging more but inevitably it never actually ends up happening I am going to try this again as I am going to get started on a new project which will require me to start writing much much more


I was just at the gym working on my basketball game while listening to one of my fave podcast series by James Altucher. I can't quite pinpoint what was said by a guest he had on but it inspired me to write about a prop bet I have mentioned a couple times on the forums and briefly on twitter.


The prop bet I was thinking of trying was trying to make either 300 or 400 buyins at either 50plo or 100plo on Pokerstars in a 31 day time period. Those that are not familiar with online PLO will have no idea if this is hard or how hard it actually is but to my knowledge no one has ever had this amount of buyins at these limits before. One of the reasons for this is because anyone that could ever make that much at these stakes would surely move up before the end of the month. Everyone I have talked to about doing this says with the rake I have absolutely no chance of succeeding at it. Another of the reasons is that the rake bb/100 at these limits is so high that it really makes it hard for anyone to win pre-rake. I do believe that this plays a pretty large part in the success of people playing these limits but I also think its very over blown in the SSPLO community on 2p2 just how big of a factor rake at low stakes plays. I think it is in everyone's best nature to continue to argue this point on the forums in hopes that at some point the poker sites might actually do something about it and lower the rake but I also think that many people will read all this doom & gloom being posted and get turned off to the idea of even trying to make it at the game. Yes the rake does suck at these limits compared to NL but its very very beatable and with some hard work it can be done. I think attempting this prop bet might show people to stop reading all the negative things people repeat nonstop but instead see what I was able to do and know that it is very possible to make money at these stakes while getting better and moving up the ranks at some point.


I've thought about the actual chances of being able to do this and to be honest I really have no idea if I could actually do it. In every prop bet I've tried I had no idea if I could do it going into it. I am pretty confident I could get some action at this bet at 3-1 but I am not really sure if I want to gamble it up that much with the most likely outcome being that I don't succeed and in the process costing me money that I would otherwise make grinding my normal stakes and hours.


My question I have for you guys is if you were going to try to make 300-400 buyins in 31 days at 50PLO, what would be your strategy to do it? Assuming it is all normal tables (no zoom or HU tables) but you could play deep games and also start tables. Would you try to maximize your hands/hr and play many many hands in that month while going for a lower winrate? Would you split up your sessions into different ones or would you try to grind out one big one/build up big stacks on tables? Assuming you COULD play 24 tables at once competently, would you do that for many hr/s per day, set a goal of xxx,xxx thousands of hands for the month and then adjust depending on how the results were going? Would you want to do it at 50plo or 100plo?? It is a pretty simple task but there are so many ways you could attack it from a strategic stand point. If only Urubu would have had 1 strategy going into his prop bet maybe he wouldn't have given up


Joey

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 Last edit: 27/06/2014 08:27

Joe   Czech Republic. Jun 27 2014 09:18. Posts 5986

I hope this propbet will happen. I think your chance is super small, but I will definately root for you to succeed

there is a light at the end of the tunnel... (but sometimes the tunnel is long and deep as hell) 

traxamillion   United States. Jun 27 2014 09:25. Posts 10332

300 buyins in 31 days. So 10bi/day. So even winning at 10bb/100 post rake (pre RB - not sure if rakeback counts for this) you would need 10k hands/day every day. Does anyone even beat 50nl for 10bb/100 anymore long term? Not even close I suspect. That PLO rake really is that bad it is not all doom and gloom. NL rake is too high (absurdly so for services provided and the long term health of the game involved) and PLO rake is far worse.

The last rake thread I read in HSPLO showed that at 100PLO virtually nobody was even beating the game pre RB and if anyone did it was by at most 2bb/100 (and that was the guy who moved up quickly to higher stakes or was down there slumming it for some reason). I don't play on stars so I can't comment on the games but I imagine that they are tougher than where I play similar stakes. Competent players do play that low in 2014 unlike 5 years ago when small stakes could be obliterated.

I'm going to assume you are going to be one of the best players to ever even hit these stakes. Everyone else is breaking even but you beat the game for 5bb/100. Now assuming you run decently you will have to grind out 20k hands a day each day for a month. I know you are capable of playing that many hands. however I am not sure you would really win at that clip or if you did would you be able to maintain that level of play over that many hours and tables? There are good reasons that afaik nobody has ever made $15k in one month of 50PLO. That just sounds nuts. I suppose if anyone can do it it would be you though.

I believe you would need to run good to do this; maybe in the top 20-30% of possible runs (factor this into the odds you lay). Playing good hours and getting optimal amounts of fish at your tables will be important and possibly the difference. I'd rather play 100 tables Saturday afternoon/evening than trying to grind for example more hours over less tables in the middle of the night.

will rakeback count for final totals? If it does you stand a better chance obviously, if not it may be virtually impossible. With rakeback involved and playing on stars (SNE you are right? 70%+ RB) you could probably mass enough hands to do this but it would kinda be against the point of the bet (other than making money which is #1 I assume) which is to see if low stakes is just a rake trap or not. If the bet is no rakeback involved I think you should take no less than 10-1 and probably closer to 20-1. You might need a 10-5% run on top of all the discipline, time, etc. to even do this. As a friend I'd recommend not doing this but if you can get good enough odds, can afford it, and are driven enough to find out some answers to your questions in the OP I'm sure we would all like to know how a world class PLO player fares in today's low stakes PLO games. Get your adderall ready lol


traxamillion   United States. Jun 27 2014 09:43. Posts 10332

To answer your question, I would ask a few people on stars if the reduced rake affect at 100plo versus 50plo makes up for the harder games (100 PLO I assume will have better regs and less fish).

If the rake has the same cap at both stakes; ie. 10% capped at $3 I'd say you should go with 100PLO. I would have to look at exact numbers though and when I get a chance I will.

I also would not set a hand # goal for the month as we do not know what that number should be. Optimal strategy would be to just hit it as hard as possible out of the gate without spewing and to see where you are after a couple days or a week.


Joeingram1   United States. Jun 27 2014 09:59. Posts 943

Trax thank you very much for the well thought out response


I honestly have no idea on what winrates are at these stakes right now but I would assume that most of the reg's that are multi tabling here probably don't multi table as effective as they could be so I really don't think the winrates matter that much.

This would all be pre-rakeback as well. I will share my thoughts on some of what you said after we get some more replies as I don't want to sway anyone's opinion one way or the other.


Joe   Czech Republic. Jun 27 2014 11:07. Posts 5986

As far as zoom PLO100 goes, pretty much all the longterm regs have winrates between -2 to +3 bb/100 pre-rb. (Rakeback is something like 3-3.5 bb/100 for SNs). There are probably a few players who beat it for like 7-8 bb/100, but thats about it, never heard of anyone having a bigger sample of 10+ bb/100. Not saying its not possible, it probably is (if like sauce or galfond 2-tables it), but its super hard.

But deep ante tables thats a different story. There are good players (and probably good table-selecters) who beat it for 15+ bb/100.

Not sure about regular non zoom non deep tables, probably somewhere in-between.

there is a light at the end of the tunnel... (but sometimes the tunnel is long and deep as hell)Last edit: 27/06/2014 11:08

traxamillion   United States. Jun 27 2014 13:28. Posts 10332

Deep ante would be better if you can get enough of those tables running for sure


Daut    United States. Jun 27 2014 14:49. Posts 8830

doable but very unlikely. you could heater hard, start crushing, tilt the regs and win infinite probably, but most likely youd either win at like 4bb/100 and wouldnt be able to play enough hands or play enough hands and have your play suffer a bit.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

KeyleK_uk   United Kingdom. Jun 27 2014 16:01. Posts 1678

What trax said, just hit it as hard as you can out of the gate and reevaluate as often as is reasonable.

Doable but you probs need to run above ev in 31 days to complete this imho

poker is soooo much easier when you flop sets 

JonnyCosMo   United States. Jun 27 2014 16:45. Posts 7292


  On June 27 2014 13:49 Daut wrote:
doable but very unlikely. you could heater hard, start crushing, tilt the regs and win infinite probably, but most likely youd either win at like 4bb/100 and wouldnt be able to play enough hands or play enough hands and have your play suffer a bit.



This. But I also have no clue how soft PLO50 or PLO100 is, so who knows!

Everyone needs to see that you are king of the castle - PoorUser 

FrEaK[S.sIR]   Canada. Jun 27 2014 19:34. Posts 1848

Crystal meth seems like a key ingredient.

31 day meth habit never hurt nobody.


chris   United States. Jun 27 2014 20:19. Posts 5498

don't do it joey! just play your normal game and live your life! don't lose it to plo50

5 minute showers are my 8 minute abs. - Neilly 

FrEaK[S.sIR]   Canada. Jun 27 2014 20:46. Posts 1848

For the record, that's because nobody has ever had a 31 day meth habit.

Think at that point you'd be......all in.

I mean pot.





I think my birthday broke my funny zone


Joeingram1   United States. Jun 28 2014 02:09. Posts 943


  On June 27 2014 13:49 Daut wrote:
doable but very unlikely. you could heater hard, start crushing, tilt the regs and win infinite probably, but most likely youd either win at like 4bb/100 and wouldnt be able to play enough hands or play enough hands and have your play suffer a bit.




I don't think my approach would include that many hands against other regs but I could make it to 1 mill hands if I needed to (i think) (could i?)



  On June 27 2014 15:01 KeyleK_uk wrote:
What trax said, just hit it as hard as you can out of the gate and reevaluate as often as is reasonable.

Doable but you probs need to run above ev in 31 days to complete this imho




I think first sentence is the best way to go about it


  On June 27 2014 15:45 JonnyCosMo wrote:

This. But I also have no clue how soft PLO50 or PLO100 is, so who knows!



Cosmooooooo, I am curious to this as well


  On June 27 2014 19:19 chris wrote:
don't do it joey! just play your normal game and live your life! don't lose it to plo50



lol I need to put this in large font on my desktop when I start thinking about trying this



  On June 27 2014 18:34 FrEaK[S.sIR] wrote:
Crystal meth seems like a key ingredient.

31 day meth habit never hurt nobody.



I think adderall >>>> crystal in this scenario, probably 3 or 4 other drugs I would do before


FrEaK[S.sIR]   Canada. Jun 28 2014 09:36. Posts 1848

Yeah, I know..I has that too


handbanana21   United States. Jun 28 2014 16:06. Posts 3007

You would have to run pretty damn good. Just do a trial run obv (if you havnt already).


Joeingram1   United States. Jun 29 2014 10:54. Posts 943

no trail run would ever be the same thing, i've never done trial runs in the past, usually just go after it and see what happens


handbanana21   United States. Jun 29 2014 13:04. Posts 3007


  On June 29 2014 09:54 Joeingram1 wrote:
no trail run would ever be the same thing, i've never done trial runs in the past, usually just go after it and see what happens



You def need to find out the fish to reg ratio, start marking players ahead of time. This many hands + hrs itll help to have good table and seat selection. If you just do this cold with no history i dont think you have a chance. But would root for you obv!


chris   United States. Jun 29 2014 21:30. Posts 5498

more fun challenge - how about winning 15 buy ins at each limit plo 50 through as high as you can go in a month?

5 minute showers are my 8 minute abs. - Neilly 

MIStrZZZ   Poland. Jun 30 2014 12:39. Posts 130

if you ever make this propbet i will give you action for sure

from my experience something around 200 bi's is doable on PLO50 as long as you play for 10+ hours a day fully concentrated AND if you include rb

300? might be possible if you run super good. I'd rather see 300 bi in EV (incl. rb) - now that would be a challenge

 Last edit: 01/07/2014 12:50

 
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