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Sports Betting?

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thewh00sel    United States. Oct 01 2013 23:39. Posts 2718
So, I've been thinking for a while how inefficient it is to have a huge chunk of cash just sitting around (bankroll) doing nothing for me other than being a security blanket for running bad in poker. I'd like to have that money working for me. I've always been intrigued by sports betting but have only dipped toes in the water so-to-speak. I know practically nothing about any sports other than knowing some of the known players and whatnot. I have no bias to any teams and am not a fan or anything because, tbh, I think sports and watching them is a huge waste of time.

Now that I have all you sports fans on my side, how many of you place a large amount of wagers each week? How much time do you spend handicapping the games? Line shopping? Do you focus on specific sports or do you bet everything? How much time per bet would you say sports betting takes for you on average? What websites do you visit to get all of your stats/info/etc that you feel gives you an edge? (especially interested in that) If you bet a lot and were to give advice to a beginner, what would you say/where would you send them to learn the ropes?

Thanks!

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A government is the most dangerous threat to man’s rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand 

Silver_nz   New Zealand. Oct 02 2013 00:58. Posts 5620

" tbh, I think sports and watching them is a huge waste of time"
lol yep, me too. This why I never got into sport betting. You'd have to actually learn alot about the sport you are going to bet on in order to make EV+ decisions. Knowing every player and coach and how they work together. But you're still going to have alot of your money sitting around to cover variance? you can only bet a small % of your bankroll in sport betting too (if you like being profitable long term)


thewh00sel    United States. Oct 02 2013 01:47. Posts 2718


  On October 01 2013 23:58 Silver_nz wrote:
" tbh, I think sports and watching them is a huge waste of time"
lol yep, me too. This why I never got into sport betting. You'd have to actually learn alot about the sport you are going to bet on in order to make EV+ decisions. Knowing every player and coach and how they work together. But you're still going to have alot of your money sitting around to cover variance? you can only bet a small % of your bankroll in sport betting too (if you like being profitable long term)


This is somewhat true. From everything I've read, a lot of active sports professionals risk 2-3% of their roll per bet, but they might make 30 bets in a week, so their outlay each week is 60-90% of their sports bankroll in action and then re-evaluate unit size the following week.

A government is the most dangerous threat to man’s rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand 

bigredhoss   Cook Islands. Oct 02 2013 02:36. Posts 8563

i think unless you want to spend a ton of time building a model (and are in the <1% or whatever whose models can actually beat the vig) it's better to focus most of your attention on line-shopping, which you can use sbrodds.com to help with. unfortunately that requires keeping money on multiple sites. don't really know which sites are best for relevant numbers/stats info.

i think 2p2's sportsbetting faq is decent for the basics http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/...-awesome-sports-betting-faq-1204065/. i know there's people here a lot more qualified than me to talk about this but basically i think it's just really hard to get good specific information about how to build effective models or use particular stats etc. since giving out info has a much greater and more direct impact on people's bottom lines in sportsbetting compared to poker.

Truck-Crash Life 

4kinggenius   United Kingdom. Oct 02 2013 03:48. Posts 317

There are two ways to win at Sports betting. First is to know a huge amount about a team or a sport and to recognize when the bookies have their prices wrong based on history and then taking advantage of the +EV situation - which will work itself out over time.

Secondly is to use a system called arbitrage - you can find many explanations of this on the internet but this involves a HUGE investment in time and having money sat with many many different bookmakers. In effect this is a mathematical calculation where if you find a difference between the odds on 2 different sites for the same event, then you can calculate the amount of money that you can bet on every outcome that GUARANTEES a profit. Note you ahve to be vey quick to take advantage of this as each sports betting site will be monitoring all the others to make sure that they are offering good odds and so that they are not out of sync with the market and enabling advantage bettors.

The problem with sports betting is that most companies will begin to limit your bets once they realise that you are an advantage player and/or long term winner as there is no profit to them in having you play.

NL1K is only ever one drink away...... 

Skoal   Canada. Oct 02 2013 04:28. Posts 460

be a bookie or lose

or get really good info from sharps (almost impossible to find as a nobody, but easy to find a lot of delusional fakers) who make it their lives. even if u win u will end up getting cut off and/or stiffed by bookies if u win too much

good luck beating the casino

of all the endeavors a poker player with free time and excess cash could embark on, this is one of the worst, even if you're a level head analytic type with 0 degen in him

unless of course you're a savant and wanna dedicate your life to it

 Last edit: 02/10/2013 04:40

Naib   Hungary. Oct 02 2013 06:24. Posts 934

Please just walk away and never look back. Think about what sportsbetting did to Lindgren. I'm sure there are other examples as well...

Or you might take, say, 5-10% of your poker bankroll, and name that your "sports-betting bankroll", managing it separately. And when - 'cause you will imo, no offense - you bust it, consider your dabbling in sports-betting over.

But I hope you won't even start I've never bet on sports in my life ever, but everyone I've seen doing it are all degening all their shit away...one particular guy at a local card room used to have everything - a great business, lots of cash, cars, you name it...now he's playing for chump change at the lowest poker tables. And he didn't quit sports-betting either.

My favourite line is Bet/Fold. I bet, you fold. 

TheTrees   United States. Oct 02 2013 09:16. Posts 1590

Just getting into it now. Absolutely love it.

These are the steps I would take:

1. Read Wong's Sports Betting Book (in the 2+2 FAQ thread)
2. Check out pregame.com, the rxforum, 2+2, behindthebet, etc, and find some handicappers that are well respected. Try to pick up on their logic.
3. Apply the logic to create your own lines before they come out (a step I haven't reached, yet).

Once I get beyond 3, I'm going to try and create my own systems this Summer.


CamilaPunt   Brasil. Oct 02 2013 13:41. Posts 2282

getting into betting is very time consuming

watching games IS important to make correct decisions

wanting to get into it to make extra dough is like someone wanting to get into poker to make extra dough- its tough

 Last edit: 02/10/2013 14:03

squishypoopie   United States. Oct 02 2013 14:55. Posts 13

A buddy of mine and I have been sports betting for a few years and it is not nearly as time consuming as you may think. Some good sites to help you get started on the analysis are:

Sportschatplace.com
Sbrforum.com
Picksandparlays.com

However, to check nearly real-time information concerning whether or not a player will play in the sporting event, use usatoday.com and look at the matchups. My friend and I have consistently gone well over 100% return for the last few years of betting on NBA and NFL. Stay away from MLB and college football entirely.

My friend and i typically stick to 1.5-1.7% units. We have bet as little as $5 on a game, and have had as much as $500 in action at times. We have yet to go broke.

The site we play on mostly is justbet.cx. There are a number of sites out there which have better lines, but there are reasons why we do not deposit in them. As someone has already mentioned, lines obviously fluctuate, but they will almost always stay within a half point of the spread unless something out of the ordinary happens. The line itself may be cheaper at other sites but the difference truly is negligible and therefore i really wouldn't waste too much time on "line shopping" unless you plan on betting with truly large amounts of money.

BoomLast edit: 02/10/2013 15:01

TheTrees   United States. Oct 02 2013 14:58. Posts 1590


  On October 02 2013 13:55 squishypoopie wrote:
A buddy of mine and I have been sports betting for a few years and it is not nearly as time consuming as you may think. Some good sites to help you get started on the analysis are:

Sportschatplace.com
Sbrforum.com
Picksandparlays.com

However, to check nearly real-time information concerning whether or not a player will play in the sporting event, use usatoday.com and look at the matchups. My friend and I have consistently gone well over 100% return for the last few years of betting on NBA and NFL. Stay away from MLB and college football entirely.

My friend and i typically stick to 1.5-1.7% units. We have bet as little as $5 on a game, and have had as much as $500 in action at times. We have yet to go broke.

The site we play on mostly is justbet.cx. There are a number of sites out there which have better lines, but there are reasons why we do not deposit in them. As someone has already mentioned, lines obviously fluctuate, but they will almost always stay within a half point of the spread unless something out of the ordinary happens. The line itself may be cheaper at other sites but the difference truly is negligible and therefore i really wouldn't waste too much time on "line shopping".



Any luck creating your own systems?


squishypoopie   United States. Oct 02 2013 15:06. Posts 13


  On October 02 2013 13:58 TheTrees wrote:
Show nested quote +



Any luck creating your own systems?


Not quite. However, we do plan our bets to the greatest extent possible, but that is the extent of it. We mostly make money from parlays and teasers, but of course we will take the straight bets too. My friend and I probably spend about 1 hour a day discussing bets.

Boom 

 





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