Reasons Analysis
What is the most EV+ way to think at the poker table?
Running though a hand; instead of listing ranges on each street like in previous blog, listing specific reasons for acting on each street:
The decision to sit in the game should be weighted several times more heavily than any other decision. The Cardrunners motto: what's your edge? the thought about this is where the professional makes money.
This game is NL200 deep. reasons for playing:
-I have a good understanding of how to use position and suited cards deep
-I can read hands better than they can
-I'm not afraid to run big bluffs
-It's shorthanded with FR nits: they will be out of their comfort zone while I am in my speciality
-Want to challenge myself to work out some complex spots
-Pressure to play in any game cause of my goal
Going Further
Once we have reasons pinned down like this we can look at them and see if they are any good. Its time consuming, but picking one or 2 reasons to look at more in depth could lead to a new insights, or at least, a more concrete feel for the game. If I take the turn "should hit my percived range" then I can work out what that range is, something like [flushdraws: 9Tcc, AQcc, sets: JJ, 77, 22, airball: AKo, QThh, maybe a pair turned into a bluff, 55 ] and also look at what I know about him to confirm if he even thinks about ranges.
Of the reasons we list, we could also give them weight: say how important they are in terms of what made us make the decision. This has a couple of nice effects: it forces the brain to look at which reasons it is actually using, not allowing weak but pretty looking reasons to dominate the thought process. We can stick to core reasons like EV+, pot odds, hand ranges, balanced strategy.
Another way to go further is to try to extend this to guessing why HE is doing the action he is doing. Why did he 3bet pre. Why did he flat call on the flop. What was his dominant thought? This will be more complicated becasue there will be many possible actions that could be going on. he could be bluffing, or valuebetting, or protecting. unlike looking at our hand where we know what we are doing. We have to weight all the reasons that he could have and put them together into a best overall play for us - thus his reasons become a reason for us to do an action http://i263.photobucket.com/albums/ii135/Sophophile/HeadExplode.gif
Mental real estate
Some of these reasons for acting are terrible. And there are others that are even worse, such as
"He raised, DAMM IT. No one, anywhere, ever is an unlucky as me" - whining
"this guy won that last 2 pots off me and now he's going for it again? rghgghh fuck him" - revenge
Alot of them constitute mental clutter. Thoughts should be precious, afterall the quality of thinking is connected to how much money we win. so every time we let in a thought that isn't going to positively effect the EV of the play we are thinking about, we lose a little. It's a waste of good thought-space.
In a way we have to thought-police ourselves: there's only space for a certain number of types of reasons - and often even they have to folded into even more efficient framework, only to be unfolded when a complicated decision needs to me made. Point is, if thoughts about runbad, or revenge are entering your mind during a hand, they are killing your winrate.
I have alot of stuff going on this month. My current lease on my house ends July 28, so I have to find a new house before then, which I think I have. My current landlord has a 3 bedroom 2 full bathroom house that I should be able to get.
Pokerwise, I feel like I have a firm grasp on my current limit. I'm rolled to move up, so I'll probably go ahead and do that after the 1st week of June (or maybe a little after. there are other factors besides my bankroll that go into the decision). So my June goals for poker are to continue learning and improving at the next limit.
Also, I completely fucked up my sleeping schedule during the last week of May. I sleep too far into the day and only get about 4 hours of poker in. It's kind of funny to me, though, because sleeping later has made it mentally easier to play poker because I'm solely playing at a more optimal time. On the other hand, I don't have time to work out, which makes it easier to play poker at the less optimal times because I feel more mentally fresh after I've worked out early and my energy is also up.
I'm going to Bonnaroo, so the excessive drug usage should be a nice break from reality for a few days. Not that my life is bad or anything. It's just alot better when drugs/alcohol (synonymous??) are involved .
Just wondering how many ppl on LP like different kinds of art and shit. I have a buddy that does all kinds of different kinds of abstract art and shit and different sand art(he draws different kinds of designs in the sand) im current waiting on his sandisk full of different art he has sale and wasnt sure if LP was worth uploading some of his work or not. so im going to do a poll and see how many ppl out there are actually inclined see or not if its worth it
I haven't played poker in awhile, since I was preparing for a chess tournament that happened at the end of May. Back into the grinding mood and am running very hot right now. This probably won't keep up but I can always hope .
I've been practicing better table selecting strategies for full ring. It's been helping me a lot to look at the player playing percentage before selecting a table. I've been avoiding tables with all regs and have found tables with a lot more terrible fish than I've used to encounter at NL 10.
I will continue posting till I can find someone! After heatering some blackjack, I'm willing to offer my $1,000 on UB for $975 on either Stars or FTP. PM ME!!
GF Advice, really confused...by PokerRaiDen, June 02
Hey guys, im not really sure why I'm posting this here but I thought the best advice can be given by strangers.
I've been with my GF for about 4 months, I know its not much but I still have really deep feelings for her, this last 4 months have been really great but now the situation has changed. We where both at school until this last semester, however, she is graduating next semester and is doing her practice this one. I'm not really sure if you guys know it like this but its sort of a placement where you start to work full time.
The problem is I started my academic career in med school, I did 4 semesters of it and then decided to change my career, im doing business now which means she is about 1,5 years ahead of me. Im still a long way from getting there but I thought it might not be too much of a problem since our relationship is at a really good moment now. Another problem is we're supposed to be on vacation now, but her placement started a month before school and she has to be there from 8am to 6pm, meaning we don't really have much time to see each other. Then again I thought we would figure that shit out and it wouldnt be too much of a problem either.
Today was the second day of her placement, I know its close to nothing, but I had a feeling today I haven't had in ages, I was extremelly jeleous. After work she called me and told me "I went with my work buddies to have a few beers", im not sure why but that just made me feel like shit, on the 4 months we've been together there has not been a single chance where we haven't got out together,today is the first time this happens and I don't understand why I feel so bad about this. I know she has to be social and get to know the people that she works with, but at the same time I know that this will be something that will happen a lot and I don't really feel too good about this. I mean, im still stuck at school while she's speding most of her time with other people from work and I'm not sure if this is something I can deal with so easily.
Maybe I sound like a total douchebag for thinking the way I am, but I just can't help it, it's really not a good time in my life to be worrying about a girl, I really need to focus on finishing my career ASAP but I have the feeling that this will only slow me down and have a really negative effect on my grades. Im starting to think that the best thing is to finish with the relationship before both of us start feeling that we are out of place and we remember the good relationship we have as a shitty one because we didn't meet at the right time.
Sorry if this is a bit too long but I needed to get my feelings out, believe it or not a feel a bit more calm about this. The only thing that I ask you is not to post the first thing that comes into your mind but to think about it for a minute a tell me what you think is the best course of action at the moment.
Thank you for you're time, I really appreciate it.
Havent played much online lately but plan to play a ton of 50NL over the next 2 months.
Went to Mohegan Sun for a friends bday this past saturday. We went to a nice dinner then hit up a club for a bit and did some gambling, prolly lost like 150 at roulette. Didnt think I would get to play poker but people starting headin up to sleep at like 2AM so I was like fuk it im playing some 2/5 NL. My fiance came and watched and she is my luck charm. I was fukin hammered and everyone knew it, this gives you a TON of action. Biggest hand I played was with AKo. Keep in mind everyone at this table was fukin terrible. Some random azn limps utg, other dude raises to 25, i make it 75. Limper calls 70 more lol (no he wasnt trapping haha) other dude calls too. Flop comes the absolute nuts for me, A46ss. Both had around 250 so I just shoved for like 350 and the crazy limper calls with AJo. I made a scene and was loud and people got pissed, this generated more action. Also this dude at my table was the spitting image of Steve Nash and I rode him about it for like 3 hrs. Finished up like 450. If i ever lose my job I grind 2/5 live for sure lol people are like 2NL skill level.
Finally catching back up to my ev adjusted. I must be running pretty well situationally though. I feel like I have a good handle on all the regs nowadays though, most of my sessions run really smoothly.
Hopefully it keeps going, need to make like 20-30k this summer at least so I can go buy a car. Actually on that note does anyone have any recommendations for a car I should get around the 20k range (used or new, I don't care just want a good deal)? I'm really clueless about cars.
Reasons
There is always reason for whatever you do. sometimes, the true reason for your action will elude even you, the person doing it. The turkey in the farmyard doesn't know why it scratches around, when it's being fed every day in a metal trough (at least until thanksgiving). To a turkey, its reason is something like *impression of dirt* *feel good to scratch*. In this day and age we would say 'the turkey is performing it's evolutionary food finding instinct'. (In another time the reason might have been said 'god makes the animals behave in mysterious ways').
We are Turkeys
We often don't know our reasons. and when we do talk about them, it's after the fact, and fabricated to whatever saves face. Backwards rationalizing. If the turkey could talk he would be indignant at the suggestion that he's just acting on bird instinct, and with his beak in the air, inform us that he scratches to keep his claws looking good. Backwards rationalization. We pick the reasons that suits us best after the event. Just look at any financial reporting to see this effect in action from turkeys-in-suits.
The Best Thing About Poker
To the poker player, reasons matter. Having a good thought process is connected to winning monies. It great training for thinking realistically - and feedback comes quickly; in as little as a few weeks of playing we can be fairly sure if a persons reasoning is effective.
I wanted to go thought a Hand History here, and instead of putting ranges for each street like I did in a previous blog post, I want to list reasons. Bullet point list of reasons why I bet. BUT, I don't really trust myself to not instinctively save face and cherry pick the reasons that look best in light of the result So I will make a short video and do it live, next blag.
Pokerstars Client randomly popping up?by exalted, June 02
On my gf's computer, her PS will sometimes randomly pop up, even when the software is closed (basically seems to trigger pokerstars.exe opening). Has anybody else experienced this issue? Is this normal....?
She has one of the security tokens so she isn't really worried about being hacked, but it definitely seems like a weird occurrence and could easily be malicious keylogging software. Any information about this would be great!
Hi LP!
From now on I’m gonna post reports every month. For those that don’t know May was my first month as a MTT grinder. I took some time to adapt my schedule and I’m sure I didn’t put the volume I’m capable of.
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So I will make a short video and do it live, next blag.
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