whose trading now

On April 20 2025 16:51 Santafairy wrote: damn PR put on blast for *checks notes* taking profit instead of trying to gamble 2x coinflips

He must not have much going on in his life if he's trying to talk negative to someone who is the most neutral person on this forum, and someone who doesn't say anything negative about him.

I already mentioned that I'm relatively new to the stock market and I make mistakes here and there, but the mistakes I've made thus far haven't cost me any of my initial investment. Moreover, I know what I own, and I can't wait to see my portfolio grow much larger in the second half of 2025.

Good luck to everyone else here who is trading

On April 21 2025 04:42 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On April 20 2025 16:51 Santafairy wrote: damn PR put on blast for *checks notes* taking profit instead of trying to gamble 2x coinflips He must not have much going on in his life if he's trying to talk negative to someone who is the most neutral person on this forum, and someone who doesn't say anything negative about him. I already mentioned that I'm relatively new to the stock market and I make mistakes here and there, but the mistakes I've made thus far haven't cost me any of my initial investment. Moreover, I know what I own, and I can't wait to see my portfolio grow much larger in the second half of 2025. Good luck to everyone else here who is trading

Good luck PR

On December 19 2024 13:59 lostaccount wrote: I think btc will get u a better roi then interest rates edit I am not sure anymore

I like BTC going up to 105+k again soon

On April 21 2025 04:42 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On April 20 2025 16:51 Santafairy wrote: damn PR put on blast for *checks notes* taking profit instead of trying to gamble 2x coinflips He must not have much going on in his life if he's trying to talk negative to someone who is the most neutral person on this forum, and someone who doesn't say anything negative about him. I already mentioned that I'm relatively new to the stock market and I make mistakes here and there, but the mistakes I've made thus far haven't cost me any of my initial investment. Moreover, I know what I own, and I can't wait to see my portfolio grow much larger in the second half of 2025. Good luck to everyone else here who is trading

When I started posting here soon after the forum started I was not a poker player, I was a gambler. I had no conception of bankroll management and I didn't play the odds, I chased because I felt like it. When people called me out on it I didn't say, "why are you guys being so negative towards me, I didn't say anything about you". I understood that this was a place that attracted people who actually care to think strategically because they want to be successful. All of those people left though, except you're talking to one of the only ones left.

You're not thinking and you're not trying to get better at investing, you're gambling. I'm not being negative, I'm telling you the truth. Your whole post is the equivalent of a poker fish saying, "i had a good feeling about my 73o and went all in preflop and the guy had aces but I won". You're being results oriented in a very bad way, because your results are not even meaningful. Not only is it a small sample, and you've proven that you can't time the market well and exit during a peak at what was most likely the easiest exit of all time (pre liberation day) but you're also very likely not investing a big part of your net worth into these stocks, which means that your overall returns are very low even if they are a high percentage.

Get this. I can confidently invest in the best companies in the world with nearly 100% of what I own because I know I'm invested in something truly valuable and wouldn't sell during a crash. Take the sp500 for example. If you had put all your money in there in the last 5 years you'd be up 90%. And you wouldn't have had to micro manage anything, and risk making tons of mistakes (which you will inevitably do). And it would be a 90% return on all you have. When you're stock picking, chances are you're not going to be confident enough to risk much, so even if you did get lucky and beat the 19% annualized of the sp500 with your 10% or so of your net worth you'd have much less profits.

No matter which way you look at it it's a losing play. But it's fun. Because it's gambling. Like Daniel Neg famously said, the kiddie game's down the street. That's trading. Sports betting too. This is not where smart and successful men have put their money historically. It's a degen thing. You either become addicted to becoming educated or you become addicted to the fleeting illusion that you know what you are doing when you get lucky and think it's somehow sustainable. You can't be both.

Long story short PR just do what u want, enjoy the journey

On April 23 2025 09:51 lostaccount wrote: Long story short PR just do what u want, enjoy the journey

Doing what you want is living the life of a child. Adults don't just do what they want, they do what they need to do so that they can sometimes do what they want. Doing what you want all the time as an adult means that you are living on the margin of society, which leads to mental illness, if it's not mentally illness that already lead you to living that way. Having obligations is the defining moment of adulthood. A child becomes a man only when they have stopped living for themselves and their pleasure only. It is a stage that everyone who is successful in life has had to go through.

So, no, long story short, do what fulfilled, successful people do, not just what you enjoy, if you have any sense at all.

Loco is right, I traded for fun for a bit but I knew that the only way to have a good chance at over performing the sp500 was if I dedicated all my time to it, every waking hour trying to improve and be better than others, if I just did it "on the side" I'd be a losing player, exactly like poker, there aren't "on the side winners", and I didn't feel like doing that all over again so I just invest and hold and rarely try to time anything.

That being said commies saying do what successful people do is funny.

On April 24 2025 05:27 Loco wrote: Show nested quote + On April 23 2025 09:51 lostaccount wrote: Long story short PR just do what u want, enjoy the journey Doing what you want is living the life of a child. Adults don't just do what they want, they do what they need to do so that they can sometimes do what they want. Doing what you want all the time as an adult means that you are living on the margin of society, which leads to mental illness, if it's not mentally illness that already lead you to living that way. Having obligations is the defining moment of adulthood. A child becomes a man only when they have stopped living for themselves and their pleasure only. It is a stage that everyone who is successful in life has had to go through. So, no, long story short, do what fulfilled, successful people do, not just what you enjoy, if you have any sense at all.

Lol I guess I just use the wrong word choice, what I want is fulfillment and I'm fulfill as I am living a good life. I don't know about u but I enjoy my life.

Yea trading isn't easy but it's fun n exciting.

Ain't a day trader that's for sure but I do watch the market daily n I enjoy it

What's a successful person in ur books loco? urself? I'm pretty successful in my books, I help ppl, enjoy life get to do what I want most of the time. Do I have everything I want? No but I'm grateful for what I have cuz I got all I need n more. Would I like a nice supercar sure but I don't need one. Rather have a BYD car instead n help more people. Don't get me wrong ppl help me too, yin n yang. Balance is key to life

Canada needs to allow chinese ev into our market, u agree loco? But with some tariff of course freer trade and get more exports to the chinese market. Make a good deal for both countries. Let see who our next PM is n how he navigate our economy cuz Trudeau n his cabinet has sucked for so long

Canada really needs to fix east Hastings n our drug problems is one of my top priorities.help ppl find fulfillment so they don't resort to drugs. Also tax billionaire fairly n have a better long term plan for housing. Utilize our nature resources better. Make trump back down from becoming a "51 state" n make a deal with him where both are winners. Are u pro 51st state or negative? Our next PM from election is probably Carney let see if he will get a majority or minority and run the country way better than trudeau. How would u make Canada better loco.

On April 24 2025 07:51 lostaccount wrote: Canada needs to allow chinese ev into our market, u agree loco? But with some tariff of course freer trade and get more exports to the chinese market. Make a good deal for both countries. Let see who our next PM is n how he navigate our economy cuz Trudeau n his cabinet has sucked for so long

Mexico allowed Chinese cars, now local manufacturers are fucked and there are tacky shitty chinese cars everywhere. BYD makes pretty good electric cars though, the Seal make the tesla look outdated.

On April 25 2025 06:07 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On April 24 2025 07:51 lostaccount wrote: Canada needs to allow chinese ev into our market, u agree loco? But with some tariff of course freer trade and get more exports to the chinese market. Make a good deal for both countries. Let see who our next PM is n how he navigate our economy cuz Trudeau n his cabinet has sucked for so long Mexico allowed Chinese cars, now local manufacturers are fucked and there are tacky shitty chinese cars everywhere. BYD makes pretty good electric cars though, the Seal make the tesla look outdated.

yea exactly but like I said gotta get something in return for allowing Chinese ev up to a certain amount of ev cars into our market aint gonna just open the flood gate. what does canada get in return I am not sure but at least something meaningful. more market access lower tariffs on some goods is a start. Yea I was talking about BYD I showed rikd that byd has became bigger than Tesla in someways when it comes to sales https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/25/ev-gi...annual-sales-of-over-100-billion.html

like how china only allows a certain amount of Hollywood movies into their market do that with ev into canada imo

On April 25 2025 10:08 lostaccount wrote: like how china only allows a certain amount of Hollywood movies into their market do that with ev into canada imo

I don't know like 20k ev cars from china a year max?

Not really trading -more investing. I started taking it seriously ~3 years ago. Been beating the market since. It takes a lot of dedication, but I enjoy the process. I follow value investing principles (Buffett, Munger, Lynch, Burry, Lu..), which means first analyzing the company’s financials, how efficient they are at generating FCF, returning value back to shareholders, and of course valuation. I created a system that automates some of this work. And I do some occasional momentum trading now. No options.

Here’s my 2 year graph (48.83% vs 33.55%). I diversify my portfolio, so the odds of my outperformance being luck is low. Especially since I haven’t touched tech in years, which has had the vast majority of market gains over the past years.

https://imgur.com/a/Y0tdKtn

I consider downward protection and outperform the most when the SPY dips, which really creates the compounding gains. The SPY is so bloated with high valuation tech, so it has poor downward protection. But it’s difficult to beat when it rallies hard if you consider risk management at all. During long rallies it’s like trying to beat a Zerg rush in the middle of the map while building bunkers at home.

It’s definitely best to stick it in the index and forget it unless you really enjoy the game. However, there are better passive investing approaches than 100% SPY. For instance, I think more China exposure is optimal, and less tech. I’m sure I’ll get better as time goes on. I imagine I can average at 16% vs the SPY’s average of 10%.

A lot of active investors are more speculators and gamblers.. Degens betting aggressively in a bull market with no downturn strategy.

Many stats that claim that 95% or so of fund managers underperform, leave out important context. Large hedge funds, managing billions instead of millions, often can’t invest efficiently in smaller companies. For example, Buffett has a limited pool of opportunities because of his massive portfolio. He can't allocate a meaningful percentage to small caps without moving the stock price or owning a large share of the company which causes complications. He stated that if he had a small portfolio he could return something like 50%/year.

Many fund managers have a short-term (or 1-2 year time horizon) focus since they're unwilling to underperform in the short-term (which is sometimes necessary if you want to outperform long-term; sometimes it takes a while for the market to realize a company is undervalued), because if they underperform too long they'll lose their jobs and/or clients. And many over-diversify to the point where investing in an index fund would yield similar results. But 95% of retail investors are def trash.

I don't disagree with anything you're saying, I'm also not advocating for a pure Boglehead approach for everyone, there's good reason to think an actively managed fund that has optimal factor tilting and diversification will sometimes outperform a broad low cost index in the long term, Dimensional has done it. I also think Fidelity's over performance with FEQT is not likely to be random luck or its small BTC attribution.

Value plays are difficult and require a lot of study and patience and most people shouldn't even think of opening that door unless they're really smart and passionate. And just like in poker a year or two of run good was very standard for a lot of mediocre players but regression to the mean is unavoidable. Until you've sat through at least a couple recessions/world crisis and over performed for a decade I wouldn't be too confident in my abilities.