UFC FN 188: Font vs. Garbrandt

Date: Saturday, May 22
Main Card (ESPN+): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN+): 21:00 LP.net / 1pm PST / 4pm EST
Live Streams: http://ripple.stream/mmastreams




Main Card (ESPN+)

Rob Font (18-4) vs. Cody Garbrandt (12-3) (Bantamweight)
Yan Xiaonan (13-1) vs. Carla Esparza (17-6) (Women's Strawweight)
Justin Tafa (4-2) vs. Jared Vanderaa (11-5) (Heavyweight)
Felicia Spencer (8-2) vs. Norma Dumont (5-1) (Women's Featherweight)
Ricardo Ramos (14-3) vs. Bill Algeo (14-5) (Bantamweight)
Jack Hermansson (21-6) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (11-1) (Middleweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN+)

Ben Rothwell (38-13) vs. Chris Barnett (21-6) (Heavyweight)
Court McGee (19-10) vs. Claudio Silva (14-2) (Welterweight)
Bruno Gustavo da Silva (11-5-2) vs. Victor Rodriguez (5-3) (Flyweight)
Josh Culibao (8-1-1) vs. Sha Yilan (17-6) (Featherweight)
David Dvorak (19-3) vs. Juancamilo Ronderos (4-0) (Flyweight)
Rafael Alves (19-9) vs. Damir Ismagulov (19-1) (Lightweight)

Other

- Denys Bondar was expected to face Victor Rodriguez in a flyweight bout at the event. However, he was forced to pull out in late April due to an injury and was replaced by Bruno Gustavo da Silva on April 30.
- Danyelle Wolf was expected to face former Invicta FC Featherweight Champion and UFC Women's Featherweight Championship challenger Felicia Spencer in a women's featherweight bout at the event. However, Wolf pulled out of the fight in early May due to an undisclosed injury and was replaced by Norma Dumont Viana on May 6.
- Ben Rothwell and Philipe Lins were scheduled to meet in a heavyweight bout in March at UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad, but it was canceled due to an injury to Rothwell. They were then rescheduled for UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson, but the bout fell through once again as Lins got ill a day before their fight. They were then expected to compete at this event. However, yet again, Lins was pulled from the event for undisclosed reasons and briefly replaced by promotional newcomer Askar Mozharov. Just hours later the Ukrainian announced he would not be able to get a visa in time for the event. He was eventually replaced by fellow newcomer Chris Barnett on May 13.
- Raulian Paiva vs. David Dvorak was scheduled to take place at the event. However, Paiva pulled out of the fight on the day before the event due to ill effects related to his weight cut. Paiva was replaced by promotional newcomer Juancamilo Ronderos just 24 hours before the fight. At the weigh-ins, Ronderos weighed in at 128.5 pounds, two and a half pounds over the division's non-title fight limit. The bout will proceed at catchweight and he will be fined 20% of his purse, which will go to Dvorak.

My bets thus far:

• Rob Font +111 $100 for $111
• Rob Font -120 $240 for $200
• Jack Hermansson -150 $75 for $50

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First impression of the match-ups:

• Font > Garbrandt
• Xiaonan vs. Esparza (dunno)
• Tafa > Vanderaa
• Spencer > Dumont
• Dvorak > Paiva
• Hermansson > Shahbazyan
• Ramos vs. Algeo (dunno)
• Rothwell vs. Barnett (dunno)
• McGee vs. Silva (dunno)
• Silva > Rodriguez
• Culibao > Yilan
• Hadzovic vs. Medeiros (dunno)
• Ismagulov > Alves

I got several bets in.. including a few parlays involving awin by Ismagulov, so hope the AA holds. I just used him to bring down some other lines

I like Font overall but think Garbrandt has a good chance at win by KO. Font looks a bit weak to me and has definitely left himself open to trading shots. He is good at making his way up after being taken down and can shoot pretty well. obviously, overall very polished striker.

Here we go!

On May 19 2021 21:20 PuertoRican wrote: My bets thus far: • Rob Font +111 $100 for $111 • Rob Font -120 $240 for $200 • Jack Hermansson -150 $75 for $50

No new bets for me yet. I am waiting for lines to move a little, and mostly focusing on live betting tonight.

If Alves didn't have low fight IQ, he could've won this fight.

On May 22 2021 20:39 PuertoRican wrote: If Alves didn't have low fight IQ, he could've won this fight.

Yeah, he was really picking up some momentum in the 3rd.

playing around with $10 as a unit....in the last one I went
Isma R3+ 6 unites (put in 3 units twice accidentally, whatever) won about 3 units
Isma O2.5 2 units won about 1 unit
Isma GTD 4 units won about 2.5 units
Isma by dec 2 units won about 1.5 units
Isma Moneyline win 28 units won almost 6 units

on D. Dvorak all I had bet was 4 units on O2.5 at +110. Thought I had a parley with him and Ismagulov. Must not have got it in.
(Also had Dvorak 3+Rs for 2 units)

I imagine other bookies are similar but one thing that sucks about DraftKings is it's very difficult to get in a live bet when you want to. I kept trying to put in a straight bet for JC here, starting at -179. It got down to around -101 and every time I tried to place the bet it wouldn't go thru. The bet would be suspended or odds would change. It didnt go thru until it was back to -190. Do you have this issue?

Josh Culibao win 4 units won 2.1 units
Josh C/Ismagulov parlay 4 units won 2.6

Lost
Culibao ITD 2 units
Culibao ITD/B.Silva win 2 units

had some good bets on Silva.....let me find them.
Damn I think they are all parlays, lol. Meant to put in some straight.

Culibao win/BSilva ITD 3 units to win 3.2 units
BSilva win/Culibao win 4 units to win 7.2 units

Now another long commercial break.

On May 22 2021 21:37 PuertoRican wrote:

I tried hard to get a bet in at -121 and lower. I hear MyBookie is "good for live betting." I'm not really sure what would make 1 site better than another but I think I am starting to understand that. Do you have trouble making live bets? Like I say, on DK, after you select the event, put in your bet and click submit it has to "process" for like 3 seconds and, unfortuantly it usually comes back with "unable to place bet." It's a headache.

It is especially bad for a combo-bet..say in MLB. I get the bets lined up, which can take a while, then I have to wait until none of them are suspended or changing....which is pretty much constant, lol. Think I'll shop around, is what it is. My bet ended up going thru at like -190 :/. I guess it could have been worse.

( I put in a little bit on CSilva by submission against McGee, here although McGee has never been submitted. Had good a good line) Going to try to get in some good live bets on this one.

going to keep addings bets for McGee as the fight goes on...really hope he doesnt get submitted now.

Looks like he will hold up. Line is too high now.
I managed to get in $100@-150, $40 @ -121, $20@-121, $40 @-127 lol

Hold...one time. Nice hold. I like fights like these. Good opportunity for value. Maybe we'll have more like it.

$100(10 units) @-150 +$67 (6.7)
$40 (4u) @-121 +$33.20 (3.3)
$20 (2u) @-121 +$16.60 (1.6)
$40 (4u) @-127 +$31.60 (3.1)

Parlay
BSilva win/Mcgee o2.5 3 units won 2 units

lost
parlay
Bruno Silva win/CSilva win by submission lost 2 units

On May 22 2021 22:30 PuertoRican wrote:

I feel like this fight will be similar. Looking for Rothwell to weather the first R or 2 and then eventually take over. Hopefully we will get time for some good live bets. I don't think I have anything on it now...maybe a parlay or 2 on a fight prop.

On May 22 2021 22:37 warrendeape wrote: Show nested quote + On May 22 2021 22:30 PuertoRican wrote: I feel like this fight will be similar. Looking for Rothwell to weather the first R or 2 and then eventually take over. Hopefully we will get time for some good live bets. I don't think I have anything on it now...maybe a parlay or 2 on a fight prop.

Chris Barnett won't have much to offer after the first 3 minutes of Round 1.