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UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler

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PuertoRican   United States. May 12 2021 09:00. Posts 12633

Date: Saturday, May 15
Main Card (ESPN+): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Live Streams: http://ripple.stream/mmastreams




Main Card (ESPN+)

Charles Oliveira (30-8) vs. Michael Chandler (22-5) (Vacant Lightweight Championship)
Tony Ferguson (25-5) vs. Beneil Dariush (20-4-1) (Lightweight)
Katlyn Chookagian (15-4) vs. Viviane Araujo (10-2) (Women's Flyweight)
Shane Burgos (13-2) vs. Edson Barboza (21-9) (Featherweight)
Matt Schnell (15-5) vs. Rogerio Bontorin (16-3) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+)

Ronaldo Souza (26-9) vs. Andre Muniz (20-4) (Middleweight)
Lando Vannata (11-5-2) vs. Mike Grundy (12-2) (Featherweight)
Andrea Lee (11-5) vs. Antonina Shevchenko (9-2) (Women's Flyweight)
Jordan Wright (11-1) vs. Jamie Pickett (11-5) (Middleweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Gina Mazany (7-4) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (9-3) (Women's Flyweight)
Kevin Aguilar (17-4) vs. Tucker Lutz (11-1) (Featherweight)
Christos Giagos (18-8) vs. Sean Soriano (14-6) (Lightweight)

Other

- Alex Perez and Matt Schnell were scheduled for this event. However, Perez was forced to pull out due to undisclosed reasons. He was replaced by Rogerio Bontorin on April 21 and the bout will take place at bantamweight instead of flyweight.
- Joel Alvarez was scheduled to face Christos Giagos in a lightweight bout. However, Alvarez was removed from the bout in early May due to alleged visa issues that restricted his travel. Sean Soriano replaced Alvarez on May 6.

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. May 12 2021 09:02. Posts 12633

First impression of the match-ups:

• Oliveira > Chandler
• Ferguson > Dariush
• Chookagian > Araujo
• Burgos > Barboza
• Schnell > Bontorin
• Muniz > Souza
• Grundy > Vannata
• Shevchenko > Lee
• Pickett > Wright
• Mazany > Cachoeira
• Aguilar vs. Lutz (dunno)
• Soriano > Giagos

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. May 12 2021 09:03. Posts 12633



Rekrul is a newb 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. May 12 2021 10:07. Posts 9513

No Poirier or Gaethje for Lightweight title what?


Kertosaurus   Ukraine. May 12 2021 10:37. Posts 5

--- Nuked ---


PuertoRican   United States. May 12 2021 17:15. Posts 12633


  On May 12 2021 09:07 Spitfiree wrote:
No Poirier or Gaethje for Lightweight title what?


It makes more financial sense to have Oliveira vs. Chandler as the headliner of a PPV for the vacant title, then have Conor vs. Dustin headline their own PPV, then have Oliveira/Chandler vs. Conor/Dustin headline a PPV at the end of this year.

Perfect way to build excitement, which generates more profit.

Edit: Dustin turned down the title shot against Oliveira and Chandler. He said he wanted to fight Conor first.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 12/05/2021 17:16

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. May 12 2021 17:51. Posts 9513

That makes sense, Poirier just getting more cash that way while still getting the title


warrendeape   United States. May 13 2021 13:51. Posts 277

I feel like a lot of the fights on this card are a coinflip which makes for an exciting fight but not so much of an easy bet. I'm not sure which fights I'll be betting on yet. I'm still trying to figure out what is a good value bet for me.

Oliveira vs Chandler
-Obvious possible quick KO by Chandler.
He will be bring pressure hard and fast and will keep pressuring throughout the fight. Good wrestling background, not extraordinarily so. I think more likely than the KO will be a Chandler takedown with some ground-and-pound while staying in the guard with good defense against any BJJ. As he said in a recent interview with Helwani, "Short limbs, short arms, short neck." He's hard to submit (although he did give up his back rather easily against Primus). He does a good job of pressing down on an opponent while in guard while keeping good defense. Chandler is a bit of a freak athlete (often accused of using PEDs) and has a dangerously high level of confidence.
One thing that impresses me about Chandler is that he acknowledges how good Oliveira is and how much of a challenge it will be, while, from what I've seen so far, Oliveira seems to dismiss Chandler without taking the threat serious. That concerns me for Oliveira.

-On the other hand, I have bought into Joe Rogan's signature hyperbolic hype of Oliveira. He has had his own ups and downs as has Chandler, but I do believe he has turned a corner in putting together a well-polished, complete game - good striking, terrific ground game. I'm not sure if he will be able to submit Chandler but in the end I believe he is more prepared for being a UFC lightweight champion.
I've been impressed in his last few fights and will be looking up some more of them.
I think Oliveira advantage 60-40


Ferguson vs Dariush
-I'm a big fan of Ferguson and would like to see him win. He is one of the most dangerous fighters ever when he is on his A-game, but as we know, he hasn't been on it for a while. As many people like to say, "it depends on which Ferguson shows up." It also depends on if Dariush decides to engage with him in a wild, crazy slugfest as Dariush is prone to do If so, Ferguson has better chances. From my understanding, Ferguson doesn't train BJJ and doesn't really have much of a defense against a good ground game: advantage Dariush.
Probably a good bet for a decision and a latter round fight.
Dariush 60-40

Burgos vs Barboza
Another tough one. Burgos' forward pressure can be a problem for Barboza who is arguably a better striker but who depends more on kicks and distance-striking. I will need to watch some more fights because I've probably been too influenced by Barboza highlight reels, but for now I like him better overall as a striker. Burgos absorbs too much damage as he walks down opponents - doesn't have great defense.
Barboza 55-45

Muniz vs Souza
Not really a big fan of either. I think Souza is a better fighter in every category but gives up a lot in age. Maybe his better fights are behind him, maybe not.
Souza 60-40 (Draftkings moneyline Muniz -108, Souza -115. I'm thinking value bet given even odds)

Pickett vs Wright
As with the remainder of the card, I don't really know much about these two fighters but based on analysis from others, I'm persuaded that Pickett is a very good matchup against Wright - on paper. May go with a small bet on him here.
(Draft kings moneyline Wright -106 / Pickett -118)




 Last edit: 13/05/2021 13:52

Kertosaurus   Ukraine. May 13 2021 15:01. Posts 5

--- Nuked ---


PuertoRican   United States. May 13 2021 17:08. Posts 12633


  On May 13 2021 12:51 warrendeape wrote:
I feel like a lot of the fights on this card are a coinflip which makes for an exciting fight but not so much of an easy bet. I'm not sure which fights I'll be betting on yet. I'm still trying to figure out what is a good value bet for me.

Oliveira vs Chandler
-Obvious possible quick KO by Chandler.
He will be bring pressure hard and fast and will keep pressuring throughout the fight. Good wrestling background, not extraordinarily so. I think more likely than the KO will be a Chandler takedown with some ground-and-pound while staying in the guard with good defense against any BJJ. As he said in a recent interview with Helwani, "Short limbs, short arms, short neck." He's hard to submit (although he did give up his back rather easily against Primus). He does a good job of pressing down on an opponent while in guard while keeping good defense. Chandler is a bit of a freak athlete (often accused of using PEDs) and has a dangerously high level of confidence.
One thing that impresses me about Chandler is that he acknowledges how good Oliveira is and how much of a challenge it will be, while, from what I've seen so far, Oliveira seems to dismiss Chandler without taking the threat serious. That concerns me for Oliveira.

-On the other hand, I have bought into Joe Rogan's signature hyperbolic hype of Oliveira. He has had his own ups and downs as has Chandler, but I do believe he has turned a corner in putting together a well-polished, complete game - good striking, terrific ground game. I'm not sure if he will be able to submit Chandler but in the end I believe he is more prepared for being a UFC lightweight champion.
I've been impressed in his last few fights and will be looking up some more of them.
I think Oliveira advantage 60-40


Ferguson vs Dariush
-I'm a big fan of Ferguson and would like to see him win. He is one of the most dangerous fighters ever when he is on his A-game, but as we know, he hasn't been on it for a while. As many people like to say, "it depends on which Ferguson shows up." It also depends on if Dariush decides to engage with him in a wild, crazy slugfest as Dariush is prone to do If so, Ferguson has better chances. From my understanding, Ferguson doesn't train BJJ and doesn't really have much of a defense against a good ground game: advantage Dariush.
Probably a good bet for a decision and a latter round fight.
Dariush 60-40

Burgos vs Barboza
Another tough one. Burgos' forward pressure can be a problem for Barboza who is arguably a better striker but who depends more on kicks and distance-striking. I will need to watch some more fights because I've probably been too influenced by Barboza highlight reels, but for now I like him better overall as a striker. Burgos absorbs too much damage as he walks down opponents - doesn't have great defense.
Barboza 55-45

Muniz vs Souza
Not really a big fan of either. I think Souza is a better fighter in every category but gives up a lot in age. Maybe his better fights are behind him, maybe not.
Souza 60-40 (Draftkings moneyline Muniz -108, Souza -115. I'm thinking value bet given even odds)

Pickett vs Wright
As with the remainder of the card, I don't really know much about these two fighters but based on analysis from others, I'm persuaded that Pickett is a very good matchup against Wright - on paper. May go with a small bet on him here.
(Draft kings moneyline Wright -106 / Pickett -118)


I don't have any big bets on this card, but my two biggest bets are Grundy and Pickett.

Rekrul is a newb 

warrendeape   United States. May 14 2021 00:49. Posts 277

For now i put $75 on Dariush. I'm more confident in him than Souza, but will likely bet Souza too. It's kind of contradictory betting against Ferg and for Souza but i like his chances against Muniz.


PuertoRican   United States. May 14 2021 05:56. Posts 12633


Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. May 15 2021 08:17. Posts 12633





Charles Oliveira (155) vs. Michael Chandler (155)
Tony Ferguson (156) vs. Beneil Dariush (156)
Katlyn Chookagian (126) vs. Viviane Araujo (126)
Shane Burgos (146) vs. Edson Barboza (146)
Matt Schnell (136) vs. Rogerio Bontorin (137)*
Ronaldo Souza (186) vs. Andre Muniz (186)
Lando Vannata (146) vs. Mike Grundy (146)
Andrea Lee (126) vs. Antonina Shevchenko (125)
Jordan Wright (185) vs. Jamie Pickett (186)
Gina Mazany (126) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (126)
Kevin Aguilar (145) vs. Tucker Lutz (146)
Christos Giagos (156) vs. Sean Soriano (156)


* Rogerio Bontorin missed weight by 1 lb. He has been fined 20 percent of his purse.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. May 15 2021 13:05. Posts 430

Chandler, Araujo, Barboza and Schnell.


PuertoRican   United States. May 15 2021 22:27. Posts 12633

My bets thus far:

• Katlyn Chookagian -137 $68.50 for $50
• Andre Muniz +111 $50 for $55.50
• Mike Grundy -115 $172.50 for $150
• Jamie Pickett -105 $105 for $100

Rekrul is a newb 

warrendeape   United States. May 15 2021 23:39. Posts 277

I got a little carried away with bets and props...went small moneyline on Giagos and another Giagos by Decision. Like $20 for each
+$9.40
-15.00 lol

 Last edit: 15/05/2021 23:57

PuertoRican   United States. May 15 2021 23:59. Posts 12633

Nice win for Giagos. He had me scared for a minute.

Rekrul is a newb 

warrendeape   United States. May 15 2021 23:59. Posts 277

On this one i have $40 on Lutz, $20 Lutz by decision. I think that is all...i have trouble actually finding and reading my bets on DK

 Last edit: 16/05/2021 00:00

PuertoRican   United States. May 16 2021 00:00. Posts 12633


  On May 15 2021 22:39 warrendeape wrote:
I got a little carried away with bets and props...went small moneyline on Giagos and another Giagos by Decision. Like $20 for each
+$9.40
-15.00 lol


Soriano is now 14-7, and has 5 losses by submission.

I had Giagos to win by submission, but my sportsbook recently updated and didn't have the props up in time. His submission line was +575 when I wanted to bet it.

Rekrul is a newb 

warrendeape   United States. May 16 2021 00:01. Posts 277


  On May 15 2021 22:59 PuertoRican wrote:
Nice win for Giagos. He had me scared for a minute.



Yeah i got a bit worried was going he would back away at the end of rnd 1. He managed to get a good TD then though.


 
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