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UFC FN 183: Thompson vs. Neal

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PuertoRican   United States. Dec 17 2020 07:27. Posts 12367

Date: Saturday, December 19
Main Card (ESPN+): 1:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+): 22:00 LP.net / 1pm PST / 4pm EST
Live Streams: http://crackstreams.com/mma/2/




Main Card (ESPN+)

Stephen Thompson (15-4-1) vs. Geoff Neal (13-2) (Welterweight)
Jose Aldo (28-7) vs. Marlon Vera (16-6-1) (Bantamweight)
Michel Pereira (24-11) vs. Khaos Williams (11-1) (Welterweight)
Marlon Moraes (23-7-1) vs. Rob Font (17-4) (Bantamweight)
Marcin Tybura (20-6) vs. Greg Hardy (7-2) (Heavyweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+)

Anthony Pettis (23-10) vs. Alex Morono (18-6) (Welterweight)
Sijara Eubanks (6-5) vs. Pannie Kianzad (13-5) (Women's Bantamweight)
Deron Winn (6-2) vs. Antonio Arroyo (9-3) (Catchweight - 195 lbs)
Gillian Robertson (9-4) vs. Taila Santos (16-1) (Women’s Flyweight)
Tafon Nchukwi (4-0) vs. Jamie Pickett (11-4) (Middleweight)
Jimmy Flick (15-5) vs. Cody Durden (11-2-1) (Flyweight)
Christos Giagos (17-8) vs. Carlton Minus (10-2) (Lightweight)

Other

- Deron Winn and Antonio Braga Neto were expected to meet at this event. In turn, Braga Neto was removed from the contest due to undisclosed reasons and replaced by Antonio Arroyo on November 22, thus changing the contest to a catchweight of 195 pounds.
- Jimmy Flick and Cody Durden was initially scheduled two weeks earlier, but the pairing was canceled on the day of the event after Durden had conjunctivitis (pink eye). The matchup was left intact and is expected to take place at this event.
- A fight between Karl Roberson and Dalcha Lungiambula was rescheduled for this event. They were expected to meet one week earlier at UFC 256, but Roberson tested positive for COVID-19 and the fight was postponed.
- A lightweight bout between Rick Glenn and Carlton Minus was scheduled for this event. However, it was announced that Glenn pulled out during fight week due to undisclosed reasons. On December 17, it was announced that Christos Giagos would fill in as a replacement for Glenn.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 19/12/2020 21:42

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 17 2020 07:31. Posts 12367

Bets:

I already have $450 on Wonderboy -120. I will be in Las Vegas for this event, and I plan to put at least another $600 on Wonderboy +100, for a total of $1k on Wonderboy.

I also feel confident in Tybura +105. I will probably have $300 to $500 on Tybura.

Line I currently like:

Thompson ML +105
Vera ML +125
Vera decision +310
Williams ML +110
Font ML +125
Tybura ML +105
Tybura decision +200
Pettis/Moron ITD +145
Kianzad ML +140
Kianzad decision +200 or better
Nchukwi decision +420
Nchukwi/Pickett O1.5 -115
Durden ML +130
Durden/Flick O1.5 -130

----------

Note: I've stopped worrying about the Fight Night numbers, since the UFC keeps changing them whenever they want.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Thompson > Neal
• Aldo vs. Vera (dunno... leaning towards Aldo)
• Williams > Pereira
• Moraes vs. Font (dunno... leaning towards Font)
• Robertson vs. Santos (dunno)
• Tybura > Hardy
• Pettis > Morono
• Kianzad > Eubanks
• Arroyo > Winn
• Rodriguez > Zahabi
• Nchukwi > Pickett
• Durden > Flick
• Roberson vs. Lungiambula (dunno)

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 17/12/2020 07:35

captainhook   Canada. Dec 17 2020 17:37. Posts 400

Durden is said to have had a hard time cutting to 125. What do you think of him having to go through another weight cut after two weeks?


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 17 2020 19:26. Posts 12367


  On December 17 2020 16:37 captainhook wrote:
Durden is said to have had a hard time cutting to 125. What do you think of him having to go through another weight cut after two weeks?


I will probably choose Flick due to Durden having to cut weight again so soon, plus he didn't do shit in the first round against Gutierrez, which was scored a 10-8 somehow that turned the fight into a draw.

Flick does have a weak chin though, so that's a concern. Either way, it's not a fight I will put more than $5 on. Plenty of other spots to make money on this card.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 17 2020 21:05. Posts 12367




Rebel_LioN & PuertoRican are back for the last card of the year. Enjoy.

I leave to Vegas tomorrow night. Can't wait.

----------

Christos Giagos (17-8) vs. Carlton Minus (10-2) (Lightweight)

A lightweight bout between Rick Glenn and Carlton Minus was scheduled for this event. However, it was announced that Glenn pulled out during fight week due to undisclosed reasons. On December 17, it was announced that Christos Giagos would fill in as a replacement for Glenn.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 18/12/2020 02:56

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 18 2020 08:34. Posts 12367




Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 18/12/2020 08:47

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 18 2020 17:52. Posts 12367

Karl Roberson vs. Dalcha Lungiambula is canceled due to COVID issues.

Down to 12 fights.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 18 2020 20:31. Posts 12367




Stephen Thompson (170) vs. Geoff Neal (171)
Jose Aldo (136) vs. Marlon Vera (135)
Michel Pereira (170) vs. Khaos Williams (169.5)
Marlon Moraes (135.5) vs. Rob Font
Marcin Tybura (255) vs. Greg Hardy (266)
Anthony Pettis (170) vs. Alex Morono (170.5)
Pannie Kianzad (135.5) vs. Sijara Eubanks (136)
Deron Winn (194.5) vs. Antonio Arroyo (194)
Gillian Robertson (125) vs. Talia Santos (126)
Tafon Nchukwi (186) vs. Jamie Pickett (184.5)
Jimmy Flick (125) vs. Cody Durden (126)
Carlton Minus (159) vs. Christos Giagos (159.5)

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Dec 19 2020 17:17. Posts 400

Going with my gut. I got Durden, Talia Santos, Tybura, Khaos and Geof Neal. And Ahoyo vs little Cormier FDGD, Pettis vs Morano FDGD, Nchuckwi vs Pickett under 1.5 and Moraes vs Font FDGD.


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 19 2020 20:59. Posts 12367

• Thompson ML -120 $450 for $375 (BAS)
• Thompson ML +105 $500 for $525 (Westgate)
• Tybura ML +100 $300 for $300 (WilliamHill)
• Williams/Pereira O1.5 -115 $57.50 for $50 (WilliamHill)
• Vera decision +305 $50 for $152.50 (Circa)
• Font ML +135 $50 for $67.50 (Circa)
• Kianzad ML +145 $50 for $72.50 (Westgate)
• Morono decision +355 $10 for $35.50 (Circa)
• Nchukwi/Pickett U1.5 +120 $20 for $24 (Circa)
• Durden ML +135 $20 for $27 (Westgate)


• Boise/SJSU O56 -110 $110 for $100 (WilliamHill)

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Dec 20 2020 01:29. Posts 400

I feel like another disaster is coming for me.


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 20 2020 01:48. Posts 12367

Tybura $$$

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 20 2020 02:08. Posts 12367

Ouch. Referee Marc Goddard allowed Marlon Moraes to eat way too many strikes...

Nice performance by Rob Font.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 20 2020 02:45. Posts 12367

Pereira is such a clown. Glad I went with the Over instead of betting on either guy.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 20 2020 03:32. Posts 12367

I just added Thompson/Neal U4.5 -155 $310 for $200.

I figure if Neal wins, it'll be ITD. If Wonderboy wins, it can be ITD and by decision, but Neal has never fought more than 3 rounds, and he also hasn't fought for 1 year, and he was just in the hospital a few months ago and said "he almost died," which makes me think his cardio might not be great after 2.5 rounds.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 20 2020 04:16. Posts 12367


  On December 20 2020 02:32 PuertoRican wrote:
I just added Thompson/Neal U4.5 -155 $310 for $200.

I figure if Neal wins, it'll be ITD. If Wonderboy wins, it can be ITD and by decision, but Neal has never fought more than 3 rounds, and he also hasn't fought for 1 year, and he was just in the hospital a few months ago and said "he almost died," which makes me think his cardio might not be great after 2.5 rounds.


Damn. Props to Neal being able to take all of those shots. I wasted $310 of my Thompson profit with the late bet on the Under.

Oh well. Good event for me.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 20 2020 04:37. Posts 12367


  On December 19 2020 19:59 PuertoRican wrote:
• Thompson ML -120 $450 for $375 (BAS)
• Thompson ML +105 $500 for $525 (Westgate)
• Tybura ML +100 $300 for $300 (WilliamHill)
• Williams/Pereira O1.5 -115 $57.50 for $50 (WilliamHill)
• Vera decision +305 $50 for $152.50 (Circa)
• Font ML +135 $50 for $67.50 (Circa)
• Kianzad ML +145 $50 for $72.50 (Westgate)
• Morono decision +355 $10 for $35.50 (Circa)
• Nchukwi/Pickett U1.5 +120 $20 for $24 (Circa)
• Durden ML +135 $20 for $27 (Westgate)


• Boise/SJSU O56 -110 $110 for $100 (WilliamHill)





My only mistake was betting $310 on the Over 4.5 rounds in the Wonderboy/Neal fight right before the fight started. It was one of those last minute bets we all do from time to time. Other than that, I had a good night.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Dec 23 2020 09:48. Posts 400

I just couldn't figure out why I bet Neal instead of the safer over 3.5 rounds.


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 24 2020 06:42. Posts 12367


  On December 23 2020 08:48 captainhook wrote:
I just couldn't figure out why I bet Neal instead of the safer over 3.5 rounds.


The money lines were even. If you thought Geoff Neal was going to win, you probably thought he would get a TKO within the first 3 rounds. Neal wasn't going to win a decision against Wonderboy.

While I was very confident in Wonderboy, I thought it could end ITD for either guy, which is why I made a last minute bet on Under 4.5 rounds. I was surprised by how durable Neal was -- he ate a lot of strikes, this was the first time he went 5 rounds, and he was in the hospital in August for some illness that he said he "almost died from."

Rekrul is a newb 

 


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